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Aesma
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Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:36 pm

Hello,

apparently French government-issued bonds are taking a beating due to the current political campaign.

Marine Le Pen has not said or done anything of note, in fact her campaign hasn't really started yet.

Keep in mind the first round is on the 23rd of April and the runoff on the 7th of May.

Since last November's right-wing primary, many have assumed (and polls showed this) that François Fillon, prime minister under Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012) would win in a landslide against Marine Le Pen.

Despite not liking the guy, his party or his politics, I was considering voting for him. I didn't expect anything radical from him, he wasn't scaring me, and would have probably been good for my wallet. His recent religious turn was a big turnoff, though.

Now, a scandal has hit François Fillon, and all bets are off.

I didn't think Marine Le Pen had any chance until a few days ago. Now I don't know. I can't see her getting 18-19 millions votes in the second round like her two predecessors, that seems really impossible. But if the runoff is Marine Le Pen vs François Fillon, I expect many millions of people to be unable to vote for either : record low turnout, and record high spoilt votes. Then she could come out ahead.

The legislative elections occur in June so even if she manages to become president, it's not a given she would get a majority or even close to one in the process, currently the Front National has 2 MPs out of 577 and 2 senators out of 348.

What do you bet ? Would you put money on that bet ?
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NIKV69
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 07, 2017 6:52 pm

Much like any time you see a shift in public thinking from right to left or left to right you always get the crazies. Even though Europe is seeing a shift back to the right Le Pen is pretty nuts. I doubt she will win.
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stlgph
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 07, 2017 7:18 pm

the Cubs won
Trump won
the Patriots came back and won

good times.
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lugie
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:17 pm

The current polls (I know, I know, failure to predict Trump and Brexit but what else do we have) actually show her in front for the first round.
This seems logical because all of the "center"/"liberal" political spectrum voters will vote for their candidate.
Many of these people should be able to unite behind whoever might be Le Pens opponent in the second round though.

Currently second-round polls indicate the most stable lead in 1 v 1 matchup for Macron (he has something aorund 65% against Le Pen). I feel like out of the 3 major candidates he is the one with the biggest potential to unite anti-Le Pen voters behind him.
One can only pray that neither Hamon nor Fillon make it into the second round because I'm fearing they might not get enough people out to defeat Le Pen.

As a German I'll be rooting for Macron. He is firmly pro-European, modern and has started a young liberal political movement. Also, his economic plans are far more realistic than what Hamon stands for.
Now, I'm in no way intending to say she is a lady solely interested in you for her own monetary gain, I just fail to observe her accompanying gentlemen of lesser fortune. - Kanye West
 
VSMUT
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:21 pm

stlgph wrote:
the Cubs won
Trump won
the Patriots came back and won

good times.


Brexit
Colombia rejecting the peace proposal
Harambe

Maybe if we all start routing for Le Pen as the sensible and reasonable choice, then she will lose the election... :spin:
 
KLDC10
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:09 pm

I've been following the French election semi-closely for a couple of months now. I too was of the opinion that Francois Fillon would be the next occupant of the Elysee Palace (which in itself would be quite an achievement given his oft-touted 'Thatcherite' credentials).

As for his scandals, I'm not French, so I have no idea how people there actually view the situation beyond what I read in the news. Perhaps someone would be able offer a French perspective on that?

With that said, I think it comes down to this: Will Fillon's supporters desert him over this "scandal"? If so, then he may fail to reach the second round. But let's just assume that his base remains loyal and he reaches the second round, pitting him against Le Pen. Would he then be able to earn the trust of voters beyond his base, who may have serious concerns about this scandal of his? Or would, as has been suggested by other posters, this lead to low turnout, or perhaps even a rise in support for Le Pen?

I don't wish to make a prediction - I'm just theorizing here. But it's very interesting to think about, and definitely one to watch.
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:17 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Much like any time you see a shift in public thinking from right to left or left to right you always get the crazies. Even though Europe is seeing a shift back to the right Le Pen is pretty nuts. I doubt she will win.


But in France I'm not sure there is that shift, for several reasons. Many left-wing folks think socialist president François Hollande made right-wing choices. And Marine Le Pen's economic platform horrifies right-wingers while pleasing workers. Lowering the retirement age back to 60, for example.

On the other hand, when some of the economic proposals of François Fillon got some media attention after his nomination, there was an outcry even in his own party, for example at the idea of a partial privatization of health insurance.
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Jalap
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:55 pm

Hey Aesma, looking at your signature I'll add this quote: "Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job." Surely you know the source ;)

On topic, I believe my French neighbours won't allow Le Pen to win the 2nd round. We all see what's happening with Trump. I strongly doubt any Western European country has a majority to go down that road. Fillon is an establishment candidate with an air of scandals, not a good choice. Hollande has screwed things up for PS. Macron is fresh and clean (his personal life may be weird with a hint of scandal, surely the French don't care much about that). He could be the new wind France needs.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:35 am

There is a saying in America that a Conservative is a Liberal that has been mugged. Considering the terror attacks in France and Belgium, the loss of too many decent paying jobs, high taxes and costs of living - much like in the USA, just enough White Frenchmen and women have been 'mugged' you may seen a narrow plurality choose LePen and her party to be in power.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:35 am

This is why the runoff round of voting is so important; its basically an insurance policy against nutjobs winning the presidency. Times like the present are when we need a strong leader, like Chirac. He absolutely crushed Le Pen's father in the runoff round of voting. Those were the days. :cloudnine:
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:31 am

That's what the statistics say but the reality is much more complex. The Socialists had been in power for 5 years 1997-2002, so Chirac was merely a figurehead of the country, he made no decision. He had a good image as a man, a terrible image as a politico (superliar was his surname), for a few votes he got to the second round, then it wasn't about him at all, most people simply voted against Le Pen.

Chirac had only 5,7 millions votes in the first round, a ridiculously low number by any standard.
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Olddog
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:01 pm

She has zero chance. Due to our electoral system, there is only 2 canditates on the last run. And whoever goes againts Front national gets all the less crazy votes.
 
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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:43 pm

zkojq wrote:
This is why the runoff round of voting is so important; its basically an insurance policy against nutjobs winning the presidency. Times like the present are when we need a strong leader, like Chirac. He absolutely crushed Le Pen's father in the runoff round of voting. Those were the days. :cloudnine:


Nutjobs tend to make great leaders because they set goals high and have unique ideas.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:14 pm

Olddog wrote:
She has zero chance. Due to our electoral system, there is only 2 canditates on the last run. And whoever goes againts Front national gets all the less crazy votes.


That's what we said with Trump, only two candidates, the nutjob won. In October I would have said, she had no chance, but now I am not so sure anymore........
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tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:29 pm

Dutchy wrote:
That's what we said with Trump, only two candidates, the nutjob won. In October I would have said, she had no chance, but now I am not so sure anymore........


Not the same. If the US election had worked the French way, you would have gotten a 2nd round Trump vs.Bernie, and even the Boards extrem right thinks Berne would have won that.....no cheating in real elections compared to primaries.

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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:14 pm

More importantly in France you need the most actual votes to win. No electoral college shenanigans.

However about being crazy, the problem is that Marine Le Pen doesn't look crazy, unlike her father (or Trump). She has managed to polish her image and that of her party. She announced that she has removed the death penalty from her platform. Now she's not even advocating outright Frexit and back to the Franc, she's suggesting less radical alternatives to appease people who actually own some valuable property and would lose massively if France just left. In a way she's doing the opposite of what Trump has done : underpromising.

Of course these new proposals are even less doable than the radical ones, just like a mild Brexit is proving impossible, but that's of no concern to her.
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lugie
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:01 pm

pvjin wrote:

Nutjobs tend to make great leaders because they set goals high and have unique ideas.


Yup exactly, people like Putin right?

or this super ambitious German guy, he had some really unique ideas. :roll:
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Kilopond
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:50 pm

Aesma wrote:
[...]Le Pen's economic platform horrifies right-wingers while pleasing workers.[...]


Because she represents a left-wing nationalist policy. That is what the ruling powers of global imperialism are most afraid of. Just look how Herri Batasuna and Sinn Féin had been brought down by the self-proclaimed "democracies".
 
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cpd
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Wed Feb 08, 2017 11:46 pm

pvjin wrote:
zkojq wrote:
This is why the runoff round of voting is so important; its basically an insurance policy against nutjobs winning the presidency. Times like the present are when we need a strong leader, like Chirac. He absolutely crushed Le Pen's father in the runoff round of voting. Those were the days. :cloudnine:


Nutjobs tend to make great leaders because they set goals high and have unique ideas.


Except they have no idea of how to govern. When they are brought into goverment, they crumble because they can no longer just sit on the sidelines and make populist one-line statements. You actually have to make things work and balance many competing interests. That's a lot harder than just making snappy quips.
 
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Thu Feb 09, 2017 3:26 pm

lugie wrote:
Yup exactly, people like Putin right?

or this super ambitious German guy, he had some really unique ideas.


Yes, Putin is a great leader. Hitler also had some great ideas, such as the most progressive animal welfare laws in the world. Too bad he also believed in all that anti-semitic nonsense.

cpd wrote:
Except they have no idea of how to govern. When they are brought into goverment, they crumble because they can no longer just sit on the sidelines and make populist one-line statements. You actually have to make things work and balance many competing interests. That's a lot harder than just making snappy quips.


Some of them do succeed though. Besides, often the limitations of democracy are to be blamed when great leaders fail to accomplish their goals.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Thu Feb 09, 2017 5:38 pm

I very much like Marine Le Pen and hope she will win. Against all odds.
This is the very last chance for France to preserve its identity as opposed to diversity.
What she is supposed to do is quite obvious: to consolidate the rights based on healthy nationalism.
However, the political spectrum is not a line, it is some kind of a circle. She can get voters from the left based on social agenda.
It must be done. Europe is disappearing. This is The Tragedy.
As Marine said in Koblenz: What Anglo-Saxons did in 2016, would be done on the Continent in 2017.
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Jalap
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:34 pm

pvjin wrote:
lugie wrote:
Yup exactly, people like Putin right?

or this super ambitious German guy, he had some really unique ideas.


Yes, Putin is a great leader. Hitler also had some great ideas, such as the most progressive animal welfare laws in the world. Too bad he also believed in all that anti-semitic nonsense.


If you're going to praise Hitler, then take his social security system (which unfortunately was very racist) or his infrasturcture building. And there were a few more horrible issues than only the anti-semitic nonsense.
And Putin is a great leader, if your definition of a great leader is a person who gains massive influence over all aspect of life in his country while shutting down all opposition. If your definition is right, most dictators are great leaders. And you state below that democracy is more of a hinderance than a benefit. So well, let's agree to disagree.

pvjin wrote:
cpd wrote:
Except they have no idea of how to govern. When they are brought into goverment, they crumble because they can no longer just sit on the sidelines and make populist one-line statements. You actually have to make things work and balance many competing interests. That's a lot harder than just making snappy quips.


Some of them do succeed though. Besides, often the limitations of democracy are to be blamed when great leaders fail to accomplish their goals.


Give us a few names then.
 
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:08 am

Jalap wrote:
And Putin is a great leader, if your definition of a great leader is a person who gains massive influence over all aspect of life in his country while shutting down all opposition. If your definition is right, most dictators are great leaders. And you state below that democracy is more of a hinderance than a benefit. So well, let's agree to disagree.


Yep, I tend to like dictators, especially the ones that have enough morals to actually do something good for their country instead of just gathering a lot of wealth for themselves.

Jalap wrote:
Give us a few names then.


Fidel Castro and Augusto Pinochet were two exceptionally successful dictators. Castro turned Cuba from a total mess into a well developed country with quality education and healthcare, and Augusto Pinochet followed successful economic policies which ultimately made Chile one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:16 am

Like America Russia and India, what France needs is some masculine energy. These French are so namby-pamby!

So yeah! Marine Le Pen sounds like a great idea! :thumbsup:
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BawliBooch
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:23 am

Jalap wrote:
If you're going to praise Hitler, then take his social security system (which unfortunately was very racist) or his infrasturcture building. And there were a few more horrible issues than only the anti-semitic nonsense.

Hitler was the greatest and bestest leader in history! Everybody knows that! He made Germany great again! .

Jalap wrote:
And you state below that democracy is more of a hinderance than a benefit. So well, let's agree to disagree.

Isnt it a hindrance? The US Congress has the powers to stop our Supreme Leader Trump and they are misusing the powers like the scheming anti-national traitors they are! So yes Democracy is a hinderance to development!

Hope Supreme Leader shuts down the Senate and sends all Senators to GitMo. And these protesters? Send tanks to crush them like our friends in China did! Thats the right way to deal with these pseudo-Liberal anti-nationals!
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tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 7:30 am

pvjin wrote:
Yep, I tend to like dictators, especially the ones that have enough morals to actually do something good for their country instead of just gathering a lot of wealth for themselves.


Awesome statement considering we are talking about Putin, a huge kleptocrat that pretty much destroyed most of the Russian economy...

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cpd
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:40 am

pvjin wrote:
cpd wrote:
Except they have no idea of how to govern. When they are brought into goverment, they crumble because they can no longer just sit on the sidelines and make populist one-line statements. You actually have to make things work and balance many competing interests. That's a lot harder than just making snappy quips.


Some of them do succeed though. Besides, often the limitations of democracy are to be blamed when great leaders fail to accomplish their goals.


Great leaders don't need to be dictators to govern well. Bad leaders are the ones who need to be dictators because they can't argue policies effectively enough to convince people to vote for them.

BawliBooch wrote:
Isnt it a hindrance? The US Congress has the powers to stop our Supreme Leader Trump and they are misusing the powers like the scheming anti-national traitors they are! So yes Democracy is a hinderance to development!

Hope Supreme Leader shuts down the Senate and sends all Senators to GitMo. And these protesters? Send tanks to crush them like our friends in China did! Thats the right way to deal with these pseudo-Liberal anti-nationals!


Your act just slipped up there, nice try. If you are going to try and play the pro-Trump spammer/troll, you've got to do it a bit more carefully, more subtle.
 
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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 9:58 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Awesome statement considering we are talking about Putin, a huge kleptocrat that pretty much destroyed most of the Russian economy...


Actually the Russian economy is still doing much better than before Putin took power. Besides, not everything can be measured in money. I would gladly drop my standards of living a bit if in return Finland would annex northern parts of Sweden to protect local oppressed Finnish minority.

cpd wrote:
Great leaders don't need to be dictators to govern well. Bad leaders are the ones who need to be dictators because they can't argue policies effectively enough to convince people to vote for them.


Then Western Europe seems to be full of bad leaders considering their total incompetence at handling issues ordinary people care about.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:26 am

pvjin wrote:
Actually the Russian economy is still doing much better than before Putin took power.


Haha... that is so cute. The Russian economy used to produce globally marketable products in the past. Under Putin that stopped almost completely, in fact they can´t even make enough booze for their own alcoholics. Need to remind you of the utter failure the Russian economy is today?

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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:28 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Haha... that is so cute. The Russian economy used to produce globally marketable products in the past. Under Putin that stopped almost completely, in fact they can´t even make enough booze for their own alcoholics. Need to remind you of the utter failure the Russian economy is today?


The Russian economy produced way less globally marketable products under Yeltsin than it does today.

Image

But of course it's easy for you to criticize as you are German. Your country has finally managed to done what Hitler failed to do by enslaving rest of Europe under euro. Euro keeps your economy running very well as it's weak for you which is good for exports, but as a side-effect it hurts many other EU economies, including ours, by being too strong for our needs. Merkel is literally hurting the future of hundreds of millions of Europeans who don't live in Germany.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:39 am

pvjin wrote:
The Russian economy produced way less globally marketable products under Yeltsin than it does today.]


and what exactly do you think GDP, espechially in PPP Form, tells you about how marketable Russian products are? A little hint, nothing at all.

Russia is Nigeria with less people and nukes. A third world shit hole. And btw... Putin only got the Russian PPP GDP to the level it was at the end of the USSR during his first term.

Your country has finally managed to done what Hitler failed to do by enslaving rest of Europe under euro. Euro keeps your economy running very well as it's weak for you which is good for exports, but as a side-effect it hurts many other EU economies, including ours, by being too strong for our needs. Merkel is literally hurting the future of hundreds of millions of Europeans who don't live in Germany.


Hardly her fault that other countries used the cheap interest rates they could get thanks to the Euro to expend debts beyond what they can support.

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Kiwirob
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:25 am

tommy1808 wrote:

Russia is Nigeria with less people and nukes. A third world shit hole. And btw... Putin only got the Russian PPP GDP to the level it was at the end of the USSR during his first term.


Have you ever been to Russia? It's not even close to a third world shithole.
 
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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:51 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
and what exactly do you think GDP, espechially in PPP Form, tells you about how marketable Russian products are? A little hint, nothing at all.


I've studied enough history to know that Russia was a huge shithole under Yeltsin compared to what it has become under Putin. All statistics show the entire society was much worse off under him.

tommy1808 wrote:
Russia is Nigeria with less people and nukes. A third world shit hole. And btw... Putin only got the Russian PPP GDP to the level it was at the end of the USSR during his first term.


You should go visit St.Petersburg. It's the only place in the world so far where I've seen a new Ferrari with my own eyes. It also seemed much safer and cleaner than major Western European cities, no disgusting beggars or immigrant gangs anywhere like in your cities. And the culture and history it had, Germany has nothing that comes even close.

tommy1808 wrote:
Hardly her fault that other countries used the cheap interest rates they could get thanks to the Euro to expend debts beyond what they can support.


It's not about debt. Finland isn't particularly bad in debt, yet euro is simply too strong for our export industries. Countries like Sweden have a clear advantage with their own currency.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 12:59 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
Have you ever been to Russia? It's not even close to a third world shithole.


Dude, i´ve been sales director of a Russian company for years, Mafia Banker ownership included.... i have also been to plenty of 3rd world shitholes and developing countries. Russia is the former.

Russians are among the few people jealous of US infrastructure, that in Russia is quite often indistinguishable from Haitis .... they still have major federal highways made out of dirt in an environment that is ill suited for dirt highways.

Other fun facts: about 80% of the economy is under the table, to a point where it is close to impossible to hire people without under the table payments. And with a partial mafia ownership former employer was very strict with following the rules, one of our owner just had been released from Prison... just like any other 3rd world shithole
Business practices are, lets say, questionable. Not unheard that banks hold a family member hostage to get payments, which can be hilariously high due to the lack of usury laws. Just like any other 3rd world shithole.
The countries own currency is largely irrelevant to the economy, a large share of domestic business is done in foreign currencies like US$ or €. This is to a point where Russian companies can´t even give prices in foreign currencies (not sure if that is still in place though, i don´t have to worry about a Russian Webcatalog any more).Just like in any other 3rd world shithole.
Extreme leader cult, just like any other 3rd world shithole. Even many 3rd world countries are beyond that.
Corruption is rampant, there are few countries in which bribes are more important. Dealing with private companies, purchasers often expect Cash from you to buy from you, as well as on the Government level. Just like any other 3rd world shithole. Not true, many of those 3rd world shitholes are less corrupt than Russia.
You think the disparity between the rich and the poor is bad in the US? It is twice as bad in Russia....

Russia is a 3rd world shithole with nukes...

best regards
Thomas
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tommy1808
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:21 pm

pvjin wrote:
All statistics show the entire society was much worse off under him.


:)
You know that the whole GDP growth went into the pockets of very few people, hence almost 2/3 of Russia belong to Millionaires and up.

tommy1808 wrote:
You should go visit St.Petersburg. It's the only place in the world so far where I've seen a new Ferrari with my own eyes.


Try Monacco.

It also seemed much safer and cleaner than major Western European cities


Russia has 10 times the murder rate Germany has. Heck, Russia even beats the USA by a wide margin...

And the culture and history it had, Germany has nothing that comes even close.


That is in the eye of the beholder, but i guess the Hermitage is quite something to behold.

It's not about debt. Finland isn't particularly bad in debt, yet euro is simply too strong for our export industries. Countries like Sweden have a clear advantage with their own currency.


So, you are whining that you are not competitive...... and you guess what, before the EURO EVERYONE warned that Germany wouldn´t be competitive with the EURO.

Image

instead of evaluating your own currency you could also decrease your average wages, which has exactly the same effect on both, Finland competitiveness and on your personal purchasing power.
But of course Populists, usually completely aware of the economic facts behind it, rather talk about devaluation of the currency then about reducing pay. Because people don´t like that, but making your own currency weaker somehow mystically is considered something good....

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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:34 pm

cpd wrote:
Your act just slipped up there, nice try. If you are going to try and play the pro-Trump spammer/troll, you've got to do it a bit more carefully, more subtle.


I see you dont catch sarcasm? :lol:

Anyway! I am new to this game! Want to learn from the masters!
L' Esprit de Mai 68
 
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pylon101
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 5:07 am

Tommy1808 has a very odd Russophobic position. It is not typical for Germans.
I would cast doubt that he is actually an ethnic German.
Yes, there are many Germans in West Germany who were brought up under the mind-blowing unprecedented "common guilt" concept.
That is why many prominent politicians are from the East where "die Kollektivschuld" was not experimented on human beings.
However, our Tommy is way beyond reasonable limits even for a Western German.
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
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lugie
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:00 pm

pvjin wrote:

You should go visit St.Petersburg. It's the only place in the world so far where I've seen a new Ferrari with my own eyes. It also seemed much safer and cleaner than major Western European cities, no disgusting beggars or immigrant gangs anywhere like in your cities. And the culture and history it had, Germany has nothing that comes even close.



Sorry to burst your bubble but I tend to see Ferraris every other week in a working-class city of 300.000 like Mannheim.
Apart from that I have yet to see the developmental state of a nation being measured in sightings of Ferraris per 100.000 inhabitants...

Furthermore Russia has an intentional homicide rate of 9.5 per 100.000 inhabitants.
A couple of comparisons? The US stands a 3.9, the UK and Germany each at 0.9 and France and Sweden, the nations you tend to abuse in an attempt to legitimize your crude nationalist worldviews have 1.2 and 0.9, respectively.
So, in short, I would much rather walk down the streets of London, Birmingham, Berlin, Frankfurt, Paris, Marseille, New York, Chicago, Stockholm or Malmö than St. Petersburg or wherever. Thanks, but no thanks.

Fun fact: What St. Petersburg does have is Europe's most violent and racist football hooligan clique who have repeatedly insulted players (of the opponent team as well as their own), assaulted fans and even blackmailed the club's leadership, pressuring them not to accept gay, muslim or colored players in the squad. As a reason they even referenced the city's history.
If that's what it takes for a city to be free of "beggars and immigrant gangs" I'll gladly be tossing every single beggar a few pennies whenever I pass.
Now, I'm in no way intending to say she is a lady solely interested in you for her own monetary gain, I just fail to observe her accompanying gentlemen of lesser fortune. - Kanye West
 
WIederling
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:38 pm

lugie wrote:
pvjin wrote:

Nutjobs tend to make great leaders because they set goals high and have unique ideas.


Yup exactly, people like Putin right?

Putin isn't a nutjob.
Quite the contrary.

Though Trump stole a cheap copy of Putin's program ( stabilize, improve Russia )
and made it into an even cheaper flashy PR scoop : "Make America Great Again".

or this super ambitious German guy, he had some really unique ideas. :roll:


you mean that Austrian post card painter :-?
(if: in the military his superiors repeatedly judged him unsuitable for promotion.
So they availed him years of brooding while carrying dispatches along the front.
brooding later condensed in "Mein Kampf" )
Murphy is an optimist
 
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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 3:42 pm

lugie wrote:
Sorry to burst your bubble but I tend to see Ferraris every other week in a working-class city of 300.000 like Mannheim.


Cool, I've never seen one in Finland.

lugie wrote:
Furthermore Russia has an intentional homicide rate of 9.5 per 100.000 inhabitants.


Which is mostly drunkards killing other drunkards in private apartments of poorer parts of Russia. Your chances of getting shot or robbed randomly are no higher in Moscow or St.Petersburg than in Berlin or Stockholm, in fact it might be the other way around due to Russia's more successful immigration policy.

lugie wrote:
Fun fact: What St. Petersburg does have is Europe's most violent and racist football hooligan clique who have repeatedly insulted players (of the opponent team as well as their own), assaulted fans and even blackmailed the club's leadership, pressuring them not to accept gay, muslim or colored players in the squad. As a reason they even referenced the city's history.


That's quite possible, I've never claimed that Russia isn't rather racist or homophobic compared to Western European countries. But as a white heterosexual male it doesn't bother me that much. Also, many migrant ghettos in Germany and Sweden are much worse for gays than Russia is.

lugie wrote:
If that's what it takes for a city to be free of "beggars and immigrant gangs" I'll gladly be tossing every single beggar a few pennies whenever I pass.


I wouldn't. Racists and homophobes won't hurt me, immigrant gangs very well might. Btw, a lot of those beggars are victims of human traffickers who use them to collect money from gullible fools.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:33 pm

More than half the Russians admire Stalin and his methods, says it all really.

Back to Marine Le Pen, her strategy is very unlike that of Donald Trump. Trump won the GOP primary, so he was the legitimate candidate of the main US right-wing party, and could say offensive things to rally people outside, mostly disenfranchised voters, while keeping regular right-wing voters.

Le Pen must do the exact opposite. She's the candidate of an "outside the system" party, she already has most of the disenfranchised voters for her, she needs to appear stately enough to get the votes of more regular voters. Seeing the rise of Emmanuel Macron as her likely opponent is both a boon and a worry for her.

On the one end, Emmanuel Macron will have a program almost 100% opposite to hers. For the EU when she is against it, for the Euro, for an open country, an open civilization, for globalization, etc. Fillon on the other end is closer to her on all those fronts.

On the other end, Macron polls quite favorably against her, and most left-wing voters would probably still vote for him, even those who find him far too much "right-wing", a good portion of regular right-wing voters would also vote for him, so he looks like the best candidate to beat Le Pen. Fillon, like I said in my first post, will have it much harder convincing left-wing people to vote for him. There are people in the streets everywhere he goes shouting "liar !" and "thief !" and "give us our money back !".
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
B777LRF
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:52 pm

pvjin wrote:
Nutjobs tend to make great leaders because they set goals high and have unique ideas.


Thinking of anyone in particular? Hitler? Stalin? Mao? Pol Pot?
From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove
 
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pylon101
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 2:07 pm

Aesma, you know your people better.
But here in States, at least 15% of Sander's supporters eventually cast their vote for Trump.
I will still hope that Marine will win.
The era of globalization is over. We have a clear trend of getting back to national economies.
The only way to survive is to change the system: innovative technologies should be kept out of reach.
That is what we Russians used to do within the last 5-7 years.
That is where Trump is headed.
It appears that PWC had this in mind while making prediction until 2050:
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/the-eco ... y-2015.pdf
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:23 pm

In France "far left" people have plenty of parties to choose from. The New Anticapitalist Party, Workers' Struggle, Unsubmissive France, the Communist Party, and others. That should be at least three candidates. Enough of these people also voted in the Socialists' primary, helping Benoit Hamon win it. Hamon is saying Sanders inspires him. So 4 left and far left candidates. In all probability none of them will make it to the second round, precisely because of this division. Some people who vote for those will go to Le Pen for sure, but in truth she has already gotten most of the lower classes. Those left wing parties are left with public workers, intellectuals, students, and yuppies/hipsters/bourgeois-bohemians. For these voting Le Pen is just impossible.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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pylon101
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 3:42 pm

From your point of view: is there an understanding (and to what extend?) that 7 more years of status quo in terms migration, national sovereignty, national identity, EU, NATO - those 7 years of doing nothing is not what the French people can afford?
Say, I feel this understanding here in the States, despite all MSM never-ending narratives.
There is understanding of it in Russia.
How about France?
I despise Clinton and other oligarchy's puppets. But she was right saying that "Putin is the Godfather of Global Nationalism."
And when I was listening for Le Pen and other alternative leaders speaking in Koblenz, it appeared that Putin's ideas from his Munich speech of 2007 were a sort of background.
So the question is: going on with multiculturalism and globalization or it is time for national identity and national economy?
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:40 pm

Since 2002 the presidential term has been reduced to 5 years, so it's no longer 7.

You're right that the question of the status quo is a major element of the election. All the candidates are touting change and hope. They just don't want to change the same things. In particular, only one candidate wants to reduce the welfare state, François Fillon, and he's not credible anymore on that front, having taken money from state coffers to finance his wife's stay-at-home lifestyle (home looking like a castle), and having taken money from an insurance company that would greatly benefit from the privatization of health insurance.

Marine Le Pen wants to expand the welfare state, but only for French nationals. It's a major tenet of the Front National platform and has been for decades, however she must convince people that this would work economically.

All candidates want to reform the EU in one way or another, some of them have been saying this for so long that they're not likely to do anything, Le Pen wants to destroy it, Macron is making crowds cheering the EU, we'll see what he's proposing exactly.

The French president will have a decisive role in reforming the EU either way, if it's Fillon or Macron they could work constructively with Germany and other countries for the needed change, if it's Hamon it won't work, if it's Le Pen she says she wants reforms but really she wants the end of the EU.

I don't believe in "national economy" and Russia is clearly not a good example of this, besides, France has no oil nor any raw materials. Well there might be some oil in Guyane. France's economy has shifted in great part to a services economy, on top of manufacturing advanced goods (aerospace industry, armament, cruise ships), all of those things greatly depend on imports and exports.

My company makes 50% of its revenue in France, 50% in the rest of the world, building skyscrapers, tunnels, bridges, all over the world, including the USA, Hong Kong, and your own Russia. It is clearly not in the interest of my company's employees, including in those countries, to close the borders.

Sure, we could build more cars in France, but forget about those huge cruise liners. For every job gained dozens would be lost, in my opinion.

Now, being a bit more protectionist on the EU scale, less subservient let's say, why not. Force China to let its currency float or else, for example.

National identity, this is a red herring, French people of all origins act in very similar ways, and I don't think politicians have the power to do anything about this anyway, outside of the context of a totalitarian state that is.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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AirPacific747
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 6:07 pm

tommy is right. Russia is a third world shithole that is jealous on the US and tries to act like an important nation only through its nuclear arsenal. Without those, Russia would be like Nigeria. When is the last time anyone here bought products produced in Russia? They never produce anything that any other country wants to import. All Russia can offer is natural resources.

And no, just because you see a new Ferrari somewhere doesn't mean you're in a prosperous nation. I'm quite sure you can find a new Ferrari somewhere in Somalia too.
 
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pylon101
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:20 pm

Thank you, Aesma. It is always satisfying to exchange opinions with you in a decent manner, even if our positions might be different.
I see your point. I am a Russian who lives in Washington,D.C. suburb and making business in the Sultanate of Oman.
Our lives and our businesses, however, may be not in sync with global trends. As much as our loyalties.
Okay. Let us see how it develops. We have Dutch elections ahead.
I am on EK 231/232. The rest is just jet lag.
 
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pvjin
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Sun Feb 12, 2017 9:20 pm

B777LRF wrote:
Thinking of anyone in particular? Hitler? Stalin? Mao? Pol Pot?


Fidel Castro, Augusto Pinochet and Alexander The Great.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
B777LRF
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Re: Can Marine Le Pen become French president ?

Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:02 am

pvjin wrote:
Fidel Castro, Augusto Pinochet and Alexander The Great.


Seriously? Well, one brand of mass murderer is as good as the next, I suppose. I'll leave out Alexander (who was gay, will that change your opinion?) but I can't let Pinochet sit silently. He was personally responsible for thousands of people being tortured and murdered during his reign. I'm sorry, but 'making the trains run on time' will never be a valid reason for running a horrific dictatorship. As for Castro, whilst the original idea of toppling the corrupt Batista regime and tossing out the mafia was noble, he soon descended into the habits of every other dicator: Suppression, persecution, torture, murder and rapid decline of living standards for the average citizen.
From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove

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