Redd
Posts: 518
Joined: Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:40 am

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Tue Dec 08, 2015 8:26 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 49):
Norwegian friends who were conscripted all enjoyed it.

Norway isn't a post Soviet territory, the conditions in their military I'm sure are 'slightly' better. I've known people that have served in the Polish, Israeli, Serbian & Latvian military's. Lot's of horror stories, even some suicides and generally not something for a young person with a family to do.

You know, job, career, baby making (or frequently attempting), education, home buying, paying taxes, are all generally more useful things for the development of an individual (and contributions to their nation) then being conscripted into a military service, which is useless and can be detrimental.
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 10928
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:39 am

Quoting Redd (Reply 50):
Lot's of horror stories, even some suicides and generally not something for a young person with a family to do.

18/19/20 isn't when people start making babies if they have any brains that is.

Quoting Redd (Reply 50):
You know, job, career, baby making (or frequently attempting), education, home buying, paying taxes, are all generally more useful things for the development of an individual (and contributions to their nation) then being conscripted into a military service, which is useless and can be detrimental.

Which is only 12 months out of an 80 plus year lifetime.
 
tu204
Posts: 1542
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 09, 2015 10:03 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 43):
Sell out to the Russians? Do you have any idea how much of the USD 3 billion that Putin lent to Yanukovych in December 2013 actually ended up improving the lives of ordinary Ukrainians?

Selling out to the West doesn't seem that much better. Especially if you look at the numbers for the last two years. Collapsed GPD, collapsed currency, collapsed exports. The country is bankrupt and living on handouts.
http://ru.golos.ua/data/images/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD_%D0%9A%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2.gif

And then there's this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elGddX4Q0Vg

I would be embarassed to be a Ukranian citizen after the way that Ukraine's politicians try to kiss ass for a few biscuits or another handout or loan from the West.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:36 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 52):
Collapsed GPD, collapsed currency, collapsed exports.

Care to elaborate how much of that is the result of the Yanukovych regime's unsustainable policies and plain robbery, and of Russia's aggression toward Ukraine?

Quoting tu204 (Reply 52):
I would be embarassed to be a Ukranian citizen after the way that Ukraine's politicians try to kiss ass for a few biscuits or another handout or loan from the West.

In fact, what you would really want is for the Ukrainians to crawl in front of Tsar Putin.

Biden didn't come to Kyiv to dole out biscuits, he came to push for very sensible and much needed reforms.
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 10928
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 09, 2015 9:23 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 53):

Biden didn't come to Kyiv to dole out biscuits, he came to push for very sensible and much needed reforms.

Which will never realistically happen because any meaningful reforms will take power away from the Oligarchs, considering the President is one of them that's not likely to happen, they'll pay lip service to the proposals and continue doing what they do best whilst continuing to fleece the general population. I can't understand how you can't see that.
 
tu204
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Thu Dec 10, 2015 6:17 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 53):
Care to elaborate how much of that is the result of the Yanukovych regime's unsustainable policies and plain robbery

End of the day statistics are showing that Yanukovich made less of a mess of the country than the guys running it now.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 53):
and of Russia's aggression toward Ukraine?

Incredible that Ukranians still blame all their misgivings on Russia.
You guys have been a sovreign country for 24+ years! You have nobody to blame for the crap of a situation you are in but yourselves.
Stop expecting others to save your asses from your own incompetence and give you handouts!
Wanted to be independent? Well there you are, enjoy!

Quoting Scipio (Reply 53):
In fact, what you would really want is for the Ukrainians to crawl in front of Tsar Putin.

In fact, I just want this decomposition of Ukraine to go over as smoothly as possible and splash over as least as possible garbage into the surrounding area.
I mentioned this in an earlier post, this state of chaos in Ukraine can have consequences for the neighbours: you guys have something like 16 nuclear reactors, a lot of weapons left over from the Soviet era, a government that doesn't have control over it's territory and numerous armed fractions with different interests debating "who's is bigger" inside the country (apes running around with sticks of dynamite).

The Ukrainian situation is chaos right now. It is difficult to predict how this mess will fold out, it is something resembling a nation in a state of self destruction.

I see several likely outcomes for the next couple years:

1) Ukraine finds a totalitarian leader that gets this whole mess under control and maybe somehow manages to negotiate with Donetsk and Lughansk to be part of one country again.

2) Ukraine's central government is no longer able to maintain influence in it's regions and the country falls apart, due to regional leaders arising that manage to get their situation under control. (Who needs Kiev when they are a mess and we managed to get the situation under control here?)

3) This current state of chaos with its degrading effect on living standards of Ukranians continues for years to come.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Fri Dec 11, 2015 1:36 am

Quoting tu204 (Reply 55):
1) Ukraine finds a totalitarian leader that gets this whole mess under control and maybe somehow manages to negotiate with Donetsk and Lughansk to be part of one country again.

2) Ukraine's central government is no longer able to maintain influence in it's regions and the country falls apart, due to regional leaders arising that manage to get their situation under control. (Who needs Kiev when they are a mess and we managed to get the situation under control here?)

3) This current state of chaos with its degrading effect on living standards of Ukranians continues for years to come.

Understood. The only solution you see for Ukraine is one or more totalitarian regimes. What you have in mind is undoubtedly Tsar Putin or a (few) submissive princeling(s) of his.

[Edited 2015-12-10 17:39:01]
 
tu204
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:50 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 56):
Understood. The only solution you see for Ukraine is one or more totalitarian regimes. What you have in mind is undoubtedly Tsar Putin or a (few) submissive princeling(s) of his.

I doubt that any regime in Kiev can be pro-Russian in the next 10 years due to the fact that Ukraine is trying to place all it's problems on Russia right now.

The reason that one or more totalitarian regimes is the only solution I see is because the current governent is unable to control the situation in the country and now there is fighting between the different fractions in power.
A strong leader is the only way in the near future to turn the situation around on the territory that Ukraine currently controls. One that will ignore public opinion until the situation is turned around.

I also do not see many ways that Kiev can regain control of the Eastern regions in the near future, unless there is a strong leader who makes concessions to the seperatists (implementing the Minsk Protocols would be a good start). But that also requires ignoring public opinion.

And of course any return of Crimea under Ukraine's jurisdiction is highly unlikely. As in 99% that it will not happen.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Acheron
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Fri Dec 11, 2015 2:26 pm

The Ukrainian Parliament doing what it does best: Turn into an MMA ring...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpTB-1QgFb8

Wow. so Progress. Much EU. Wow.
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:41 pm

Quoting Acheron (Reply 58):
The Ukrainian Parliament doing what it does best: Turn into an MMA ring...

In your unsurprisingly selective report on the activities of Ukraine's parliament, you forgot to mention that:

- the Parliament this week adopted a historic reform of Ukraine's civil service, which will limit the scope for corruption and political influence over civil servants

- the Parliament this week hosted Joe Biden, who delivered a powerful speech:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...president-joe-biden-ukrainian-rada

- an oligarch-backed attempt by corrupt populists like Yulia Tymoshenko and Oleh Lyashko to hold a vote of no-confidence in the government failed.


I would like to make one little amendment to Biden's speech:

Quote:
Amidst fire and ice, snipers on rooftops, the Heavenly Hundred paid the ultimate price of patriots the world over. Their blood and courage delivering to the Ukrainian people a second chance for freedom. Their sacrifice -- to put it bluntly -- is now your obligation.

... our obligation ...
 
Acheron
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sat Dec 12, 2015 5:17 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 59):
the Parliament this week adopted a historic reform of Ukraine's civil service, which will limit the scope for corruption and political influence over civil servants

Which won't change a thing, as usual.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 59):
- the Parliament this week hosted Joe Biden, who delivered a powerful speech:

Lol. His son is in the board of Ukraine's biggest energy company, so of course he will try to look good.

He doesn't want his son killed in the next Maidan.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 59):
I would like to make one little amendment to Biden's speech:

You forgot to that the snipers were paid for yourselves, heh.

And isn't this like their 4th "chance at freedom", anyway?. I lost count of all the "revolution of the oligarchs" they have had so far...
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sat Dec 12, 2015 11:31 pm

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 14):
After all, most of Ukraine was a part of Russia for hundreds of years.

You may want to read up on history. Russia is actually an offshoot of Ukraine, rather than the other way around. Much of Ukraine (including Crimea) was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union for not much more than a couple of centuries, out of a recorded history that goes back more than a thousand years.

Left-bank Ukraine was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union from 1667 until 1991, but was semi-independent for part of this period, as the Cossack Hetmanate.

Right-bank Ukraine was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union only from 1793 until 1991.

Western Ukraine was never part of the Russian empire. It was part of the Soviet Union from 1945 until 1991.

Southern Ukraine (including Odessa) was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union from 1792 until 1991.

Crimea was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union for just over 200 years, from 1783 until 1991.

Several Ukrainian states were established in the wake of the Russian revolution, between 1917 and 1922.

The Kremlin has a long history of trying to control Ukraine, but it never really succeeded in stamping out Ukrainians' desire for independence.

Quoting lancelot07 (Reply 14):
International institutions ? The EU pays. WE pay! And this is something i don't like. And it would be far better to let them freeze to cool their heads, and use our money for ourselves.

Yes, international institutions. As in, your tax euros are not involved. The EU has actually been very stingy toward Ukraine. The financial support Ukraine has received from the EU over the last couple of years is just small change in comparison with the amounts the EU is spending on its current refugee crisis.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 15):
Let me give you an example so you can understand:
"Kiwinocchio" buys an apple from me and pays me 100 Roubles right away after recieving the apple.
Scipio buys an apple, whines and moans about how much the apple is, refuses to pass along apples that "Kiwinocchio" bought from me and puts them into his own pockets; I have to annualy cut off you supply of apples so you pay up for the apples you already recieve.
In other words, I spend 90% of my time dealing with Scipio and 10% of my time dealing with "Kiwinocchio".
But wait, "Kiwinocchio" buys 1000 apples a month when Scipio only buys 100 apples a month.
Do you really think that Scipio is going to be charged 100 Roubles/apple? Or do you think I should charge 150 Roubles/apple because Scipio is such a pain in the rear end and wastes so much of my time and buys several times fewer apples?

Funny but irrelevant.

Germany buys gas from Russia in a relatively clean manner (presumably, in spite of Schröder's shenanigans). The Kremlin sells gas to Ukraine on an entirely different basis, using intermediary companies in offshore locations that siphon off lots of money. The gas trade between Russia and Ukraine has been extremely corrupt. The Ukraine-Russia gas wars have to be seen in the context of this large-volume corruption, which has been going on at the expense of the Ukrainian and Russian people. It has been a game between a thoroughly corrupt Kremlin and thoroughly corrupt Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs like Yulia Tymoshenko and Dmitro Firtash.
 
tu204
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:34 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 59):
- the Parliament this week hosted Joe Biden, who delivered a powerful speech:

You consider this an accomplishment? Something special?

Quoting Scipio (Reply 61):
You may want to read up on history. Russia is actually an offshoot of Ukraine, rather than the other way around. Much of Ukraine (including Crimea) was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union for not much more than a couple of centuries, out of a recorded history that goes back more than a thousand years.

Left-bank Ukraine was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union from 1667 until 1991, but was semi-independent for part of this period, as the Cossack Hetmanate.

Right-bank Ukraine was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union only from 1793 until 1991.

Western Ukraine was never part of the Russian empire. It was part of the Soviet Union from 1945 until 1991.

Southern Ukraine (including Odessa) was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union from 1792 until 1991.

Crimea was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union for just over 200 years, from 1783 until 1991.

Several Ukrainian states were established in the wake of the Russian revolution, between 1917 and 1922.

What are you talking about?

Ukraine as a sovereign nation has existed since 1991. Before that there was no state as "Ukraine". They became a nation in 1991 and in 24 years of being independent turned the most developed Soviet Republic into Europe's Somalia.

And about Crimea, After the coup in Kiev in 2014, Ukraine's obligations and responsibilities towards its subjects ceased to exist. Crimeans didn't accept this coup, held a referendum and decided to join Russia. What do you find illegal in that?
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:28 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 61):
You may want to read up on history. Russia is actually an offshoot of Ukraine, rather than the other way around. Much of Ukraine (including Crimea) was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union for not much more than a couple of centuries, out of a recorded history that goes back more than a thousand years..

I think you need to read again, the Vangarians and Rus are of Scandinavian origin. These are the people who later became the Kievan Rus, they migrated South from Novogorod and Lagoda in the 8th centuary. The Golden Age of Kiev lasted about 360 years from 880 to 1240, then it was over.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 61):
Left-bank Ukraine was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union from 1667 until 1991, but was semi-independent for part of this period, as the Cossack Hetmanate.

Right-bank Ukraine was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union only from 1793 until 1991.

Western Ukraine was never part of the Russian empire. It was part of the Soviet Union from 1945 until 1991.

Southern Ukraine (including Odessa) was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union from 1792 until 1991.

Crimea was part of the Russian empire and the Soviet Union for just over 200 years, from 1783 until 1991.

Several Ukrainian states were established in the wake of the Russian revolution, between 1917 and 1922.

The Kremlin has a long history of trying to control Ukraine, but it never really succeeded in stamping out Ukrainians' desire for independence.

And it you go back even further you'll still never come to a period in history apart from after 1991 when Ukraine was an independant nation, it's always been part of someone else, Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Crown of the Kingdom of Poland, Crimean Khanate, Ottoman Empire, Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, Russian Empire and Soviet Union. Even further back to the Golden Age of Kiev they were ruled by Varangians,
 
JJJ
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:29 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 61):
Russia is actually an offshoot of Ukraine, rather than the other way around.

That's like saying France or Spain are an offshoot of Italy.

It's one thing to trace back your ancestry to the Kievan Rus or the Roman Empire but your claim is rather disingenuous.
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Thu Dec 17, 2015 2:51 am

Quoting JJJ (Reply 64):
That's like saying France or Spain are an offshoot of Italy.

Exactly. Muscovy's claim to be the only legitimate offshoot of Kyivan Rus is the equivalent of Paris or Madrid claiming to be the only legitimate heir of the Roman Empire.
 
JJJ
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Thu Dec 17, 2015 7:12 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 65):
Muscovy's claim to be the only legitimate offshoot of Kyivan Rus is the equivalent of Paris or Madrid claiming to be the only legitimate heir of the Roman Empire.

A certain Charlemagne (and his successors) did the same. Doesn't lend it any more credibility.

However I was not talking about ancient kings, I was talking about your incorrect claim.
 
WIederling
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:01 pm

Quoting JJJ (Reply 66):
Charlemagne

The "Sacrum Romanum Imperium ( Nationis Germanicæ )"
thing was mostly about pretending some kind of legitimacy.

Actually converting to Christianity was another legitimation thing.
As a christian ruler you got your legitimation from god ( via the church representatives aided on by offering various benefits ( to the church, individual perks. )

Before that you had to woe your people to stay on the throne.
Getting rid of the political weight of pestering females that had a say in things was quite attractive too.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sat Dec 19, 2015 1:09 am

Quoting tu204 (Reply 62):
What are you talking about?

Ukraine as a sovereign nation has existed since 1991.

The point is that Muscovy has no legitimate claim to be the sole legitimate heir to Kyivan Rus, or even "Rus".

Starting under Ivan III, Muscovy claimed pre-eminence among all Rus states, and therefore the right to rule over all Rus people (in dictatorial ways, disregarding the democratic traditions of cities like Novgorod). It then reshaped itself into the Russian Tsardom, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and the Russian Federation. The constant theme across all these incarnations of Muscovy is the sense of entitlement to rule over other peoples, especially those of ancient Kyivan Rus.

Muscovy was not even part of Kyivan Rus... It was just a distant offshoot.

The original inhabitants of Kyivan Rus, of which modern day Ukrainians are the most direct descendants, never bought it.

Just like we, Flemish people, never accepted to be French despite many centuries of formally French rule.
 
WIederling
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sat Dec 19, 2015 2:03 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 68):
Just like we, Flemish people, never accepted to be French despite many centuries of formally French rule.

And this regionalism seems to drive Belgium into dysfunctionality.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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moo
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sat Dec 19, 2015 2:12 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 13):

Gazprom has no legal ground to do so and would only be shooting itself in the foot, further undermining its reputation and reducing its revenues. It would also almost certainly incur EU sanctions as a result.

It seems to understand this, as it continues to supply gas to Slovakia while Slovakia is pumping lots of gas to Ukraine

I'd imagine Gazprom is fine with this deal, because Slovakia is the one that foots the bill, regardless of whether Ukraine pays them or not. Better for Gazprom this way, as Ukraine are defaulting on their debts to them once more this weekend. Slovakia is now on the hook for Ukraines bill going forward.

Oh, and Gazprom doesnt need "legal grounds", its their property to do with as they wish - if they dont want to sell to someone, they dont have to.
 
WIederling
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sat Dec 19, 2015 3:32 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 70):
Oh, and Gazprom doesnt need "legal grounds", its their property to do with as they wish - if they dont want to sell to someone, they dont have to.

They are delivering on an existing contract.
Question coming up here is about resale.
Did they place language in the contract that limits resale ( only to national consumers ) ?

Slovakia will find that the Ukraine does not honor their obligations to nonrussian creditors either.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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moo
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:21 pm

Quoting WIederling (Reply 71):

They are delivering on an existing contract.
Question coming up here is about resale.
Did they place language in the contract that limits resale ( only to national consumers ) ?

You can bet your arse that any contract signed has easy termination clauses on both sides.
 
WIederling
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Sun Dec 20, 2015 1:35 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 72):

Well, Germany has afair extremely longterm contracts with first the SU directly later the Russian Federations Energy Industry

Hmm:
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaf...liefert-gas-nach-kiew/9768394.html

They seem to work around this by using more RF gas for Germany while nominally piping Norwegian ( or other non RF sources ) to Ukraina.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 12:00 am

Quoting WIederling (Reply 69):
And this regionalism seems to drive Belgium into dysfunctionality.

That is another can of worms, but the solution to this can of worms is not for France or the Netherlands to send "little green men" into Belgium, organize a fake referendum, and annex the country or parts of it on the flimsy argument that "French/Dutch (as applicable) speakers are threatened".

Quoting moo (Reply 72):
You can bet your arse that any contract signed has easy termination clauses on both sides.

Any contract signed has to be consistent with EU law. Prohibiting on-sales is not consistent with EU law.
 
Scipio
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Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:38 am

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 12:12 am

Quoting JJJ (Reply 66):
However I was not talking about ancient kings, I was talking about your incorrect claim.

Not my claim -- Muscovy's claim. Muscovy claims to be the sole heir to Kyivan Rus. Putin has publicly repeated that claim in recent times. And, for good measure, Muscovy also has historically claimed to be the "third Rome" -- the only legitimate heir to Byzantium/Constantinople ("the second Rome").

Russian Tsars have long held the ambition to "re-conquer" Constantinople (i.e., present-day Istanbul) from the Turks.

Gives some historical context to the current Russian-Turkish tensions ...
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:00 am

An antidote to the Kiwinocchios and the tu204's of this world:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVyxuKXgipQ
 
Acheron
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:21 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 76):

Lol, posting a propaganda piece with George Soros, a guy convicted of Insider Trading and responsible for other shady businesses talking about an "Ukranian Miracle"...

Ukraine is SOL, lol...
 
tu204
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:37 am

Quoting Acheron (Reply 77):

Quoting Scipio (Reply 76):

Lol, posting a propaganda piece with George Soros, a guy convicted of Insider Trading and responsible for other shady businesses talking about an "Ukranian Miracle"...

Ukraine is SOL, lol...

Quoting Scipio (Reply 76):

Oh yeah. Miracle. The country is now officially in default. Great miracle.

And all the President and PM seem to care about is getting visa-free access to The EU! That seems like it is their biggest problem and their greatest goal!
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 10928
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:34 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 74):
That is another can of worms, but the solution to this can of worms is not for France or the Netherlands to send "little green men" into Belgium, organize a fake referendum, and annex the country or parts of it on the flimsy argument that "French/Dutch (as applicable) speakers are threatened".

Why ever not, Belgium is a constructed country, it's not even a very old country, it would make sense for France and The Netherlands to absorb it, and give the East Cantons to Germany.

Quoting tu204 (Reply 78):

And all the President and PM seem to care about is getting visa-free access to The EU!

I hope that never happens. That's a slippery slope which leads to the EU, and the EU can't afford to fund a basket case like Ukraine.
 
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moo
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 9:48 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 74):
Prohibiting on-sales is not consistent with EU law.

Got any citation for that?
 
WIederling
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 12:25 pm

Quoting moo (Reply 80):

IMU that is only valid in consumer sales.
Also there has been some busy litigation over commercial resale of forex OS licenses.
No idea about the outcome.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Aesma
Posts: 9408
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:16 pm

Quoting Aeroflot777 (Reply 17):
Maybe this volunteer group should focus instead of how to make their own country more livable in this crisis.

Been in Kiev the past few days and the state of affairs here is worse than it was a few months back. The prices for rent, gas, electricity, water and food are rising rapidly and people have no where to run and stop this nonsense. The lady across the hall from my apartment has stopped using electricity when at all possible, including at night time just to save on bills because her pension now does not cover even the basic necessities. Sad.

Can't wait to see what this comes to in another few months time.  
Quoting Aeroflot777 (Reply 42):
These people have lived and survived for decades and are now thrown under the bus by their own country

I wonder how Austria would fare if it found itself in a state of war with Germany. Well, we know how it went last time around.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:44 am

Quoting moo (Reply 80):
Got any citation for that?

From the horse's mouth:

Quote:
EU Commissioner in charge of competition policy Margrethe Vestager said: "Gas is an essential commodity in our daily life: it heats our homes, we use it for cooking and to produce electricity. Maintaining fair competition in European gas markets is therefore of utmost importance.
All companies that operate in the European market – no matter if they are European or not – have to play by our EU rules.
I am concerned that Gazprom is breaking EU antitrust rules by abusing its dominant position on EU gas markets. We find that it may have built artificial barriers preventing gas from flowing from certain Central Eastern European countries to others, hindering cross-border competition. Keeping national gas markets separate also allowed Gazprom to charge prices that we at this stage consider to be unfair. If our concerns were confirmed, Gazprom would have to face the legal consequences of its behaviour."
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-4828_en.htm


Here is a good article on the Central and Eastern European gas market:

http://www.energypost.eu/quiet-revol...ntral-eastern-european-gas-market/

Conclusion: the infrastructure is coming into place to make CEE countries independent of Russian gas deliveries...

[Edited 2015-12-21 17:19:18]
 
Scipio
Posts: 883
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:54 am

Quoting tu204 (Reply 78):
The country is now officially in default.

Not at all. Ukraine isolated certain liabilities to Russia (notably the infamous Yanukovych $3 bilion odious debt) from the rest of its debt, and selectively defaulted on these claims. This was facilitated by Russia's refusal to negotiate along with all the other creditors in the restructuring negotiations.

The rest of Ukraine's debt is not affected. The world accepts the restructuring deal achieved with the majority of Ukraine's creditors, and understands that the rules cannot be gamed to force a country that is being attacked by another country to honor its odious debts to this latter country...

Russia can add its odious debt claims to the international lawsuits that will undoubtedly take place over the damages it has caused Ukraine during the last two years.

Get out the popcorn and enjoy these court cases...

Yukos will be small fry in comparison.
 
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moo
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:49 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 83):
From the horse's mouth:

Yes, hot air from the horses mouth because there is sod all the EU could do if Gazprom withdrew supply - they can't instantly replace the amount of fuel they buy from Gazprom, and even with new supplies coming on line its not going to replace even half of what Gazprom brings into the market. Talk of "legal consequences" is just that, talk - what are they going to do, restrict Gazproms access to the EU market?

Quoting Scipio (Reply 84):
Not at all. Ukraine isolated certain liabilities to Russia (notably the infamous Yanukovych $3 bilion odious debt) from the rest of its debt, and selectively defaulted on these claims. This was facilitated by Russia's refusal to negotiate along with all the other creditors in the restructuring negotiations.

That's a fancy way of saying they defaulted. Russia is not legally required to have to negotiate along with "all the other creditors", Ukraine is simply using that as a poor excuse to not pay its debts.
 
tu204
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:06 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 84):
Not at all. Ukraine isolated certain liabilities to Russia (notably the infamous Yanukovych $3 bilion odious debt) from the rest of its debt, and selectively defaulted on these claims. This was facilitated by Russia's refusal to negotiate along with all the other creditors in the restructuring negotiations.

The rest of Ukraine's debt is not affected. The world accepts the restructuring deal achieved with the majority of Ukraine's creditors, and understands that the rules cannot be gamed to force a country that is being attacked by another country to honor its odious debts to this latter country...

First of all I'll correct my earlier statement that Ukraine is in default. It isn't.

The repayment of the 3bln was scheduled for December 20, which happened to be a Sunday, so that moved the deadline to December 21st. There is also a 10 day grace period, so if Ukraine doesn't pay on or before December 31st, 2016, it will officially be in default.

Now please tell me, why must Russia negotiate to restructure debt? Especially when you are comparing Russia's sovreign debt to that of private creditors?

Besides, as you must know, Russia did offer to restructure Ukraine's 3bln under the terms of 1bln a year starting from the end of 2016. Why the hell should Russia restructure under Ukraine's terms?

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 79):
I hope that never happens. That's a slippery slope which leads to the EU, and the EU can't afford to fund a basket case like Ukraine.

KiwiRob, I can completely understand your concerns. Equally I can't understand those Europeans that for some reason want to pull Ukraine along given their sense of entitlement for the last 20+ years of mooching off of Russia and then blaming Russia for all their misgivings. If you guys give them your finger, they will take the whole arm.

Thankfully it doesn't seem that the EU is too interested in pulling Ukraine along. It's the Ukrainian top leadership that somehow blows comments by the EU out of proportion that they will help them out.

I want to draw everyone's attention again to how much emphasis is put on Ukrainians getting visa-free access to the EU by Ukraine's top-level politicians.Now my question, for what? We are not talking about Ukranians getting the right to work in the EU, but to travel to the EU.
Is that such a big deal for ordinary Ukranians right now? Is it even affordable for ordinary Ukranians right now?

Quoting Aesma (Reply 82):
I wonder how Austria would fare if it found itself in a state of war with Germany. Well, we know how it went last time around.

Ukraine found itself in a state of war with Ukraine and sanity at the same time.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Tue Dec 22, 2015 5:05 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 86):
I want to draw everyone's attention again to how much emphasis is put on Ukrainians getting visa-free access to the EU by Ukraine's top-level politicians.Now my question, for what? We are not talking about Ukranians getting the right to work in the EU, but to travel to the EU.
Is that such a big deal for ordinary Ukranians right now? Is it even affordable for ordinary Ukranians right now?

It's smoke and mirrors, if they manage it and I sincerely hope they don't, it makes the govt look like it's actually done something for the average person. The fact that the average Ukrainian probably can't afford to travel to an EU country is beside the point. I can't imagine any European would want to visit Ukraine, it's hardly a tourist friendly country, really it's only worth visiting if you're on a wife hunting trip.
 
tu204
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Tue Dec 22, 2015 9:06 pm

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 87):

It's smoke and mirrors, if they manage it and I sincerely hope they don't, it makes the govt look like it's actually done something for the average person. The fact that the average Ukrainian probably can't afford to travel to an EU country is beside the point.

Oh I agree with you.

Just for me it says a lot when the population puts getting visa-free entry to the EU so they can leave the place as a priority.
It says to me that they have lost all hope of any chance at life improving in their country.

I for one would like the government of whatever country I am resident/citizen of to work on getting the country that they represent and I live in a better place, and not work on and brag about achievments in opening doors so people can leave more easily.

So if in reality the average Ukranian actually puts so much emphasis on this issue, I am once again convinced that Ukraine is doomed.

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 87):
I can't imagine any European would want to visit Ukraine, it's hardly a tourist friendly country, really it's only worth visiting if you're on a wife hunting trip.

Yeah, that or going to party for a weekend and find some inexpensive women.
Sad as it may be, but Russians I know that worked in Ukraine found cheap hookers as one of the main positive point of being sent to work in Kiev. Something like 4 times cheaper than in Russia..
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 23, 2015 12:01 am

Quoting tu204 (Reply 86):
Ukraine found itself in a state of war with Ukraine and sanity at the same time.

You may want to keep up your fantasy version of events as much as you like, the rest of the world simply isn't buying it.

The EU yesterday prolonged sanctions against Russia for another six months over its aggression toward Ukraine and failure to implement the Minsk agreements.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uk...is-sanctions-idUSKBN0U41P620151221

And the US today expanded its sanctions against Russia on the same grounds.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-uk...anctions-usa-idUSKBN0U51W920151222
 
Scipio
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 23, 2015 1:06 am

Here is a good article from Bloomberg on Ukraine's default on selected obligations toward Russia:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-next-for-ukraine-russia-bond-row

Quoting moo (Reply 85):
Russia is not legally required to have to negotiate along with "all the other creditors", Ukraine is simply using that as a poor excuse to not pay its debts.

Well, let the courts decide. My expectation is that your arguments would be laughed away in any respectable court.

Quoting moo (Reply 85):
Talk of "legal consequences" is just that, talk - what are they going to do, restrict Gazproms access to the EU market?

Talk of Gazprom shutting off deliveries to the EU is just that, talk, hot air. If Gazprom shuts off deliveries to the EU it loses its main source of revenues and will have to deal with a lot of very difficult technical and practical questions. It is not so easy to stop the gas wells on command...

Meanwhile, the EU is effectively limiting Gazprom's access to its market. Remember Southstream?

And the fact is that Gazprom has not followed through on its threat to stop deliveries to Slovakia. It chickened out, and Slovakia continues to sell Russian gas to Ukraine...
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 23, 2015 8:23 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 90):
Remember Southstream?

Russia cancelled South Stream, not the EU.
 
tu204
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 23, 2015 10:59 am

Quoting Scipio (Reply 89):
The EU yesterday prolonged sanctions against Russia for another six months over its aggression toward Ukraine and failure to implement the Minsk agreements.

Oh Geez, nobody cares about those sanctions anymore.

Russia learned to live with the EU/US sanctions and the EU/US learned to live with Russian sanctions. Nobody cares if they are extended for the next 10 years...

The terminology the EU used for extending them is a farce anyways. It takes two to tango as far as the Minsk Protol goes. Ukraine isn't doing it's part other than passing some farce "temporary law" on expanding autonomy.

And the fact that the EU somehow tied Russia's cancelling Ukraine's Free Trade privilages with Russia to the Minsk Protocols is downright stupid. Everyone has known that as soon as Ukraine's Free Trade Agreement with the EU goes into force (January 1st) Ukraine would lose it's free trade with Russia.

And Ukraine was notified several months ago that Russia would introduce sanctions on Ukranian food produce as of January 1st in retalliation for Ukraine's sanctions.

I don't think Russia will introduce any new sanctions against the EU as the EU is only prolonging exsiting sanctions. Nothing new introduced here so nothing new will be introduced in response.

Quoting Scipio (Reply 90):
Here is a good article from Bloomberg on Ukraine's default on selected obligations toward Russia:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...d-row

Yeah, not a bad article.

Clearly mentions that Ukrainian debt to Russia has been recognized as Sovreign Debt and that Ukraine is pretty much screwed here.
It does mention however that getting Ukraine to pay is a whole different story. But that is obvious anyways because Ukraine has nothing to pay even if they wanted to. Like the homeless drunk bum sleeping on the bench beside your house, he may owe you 200 Euros, but how do you plan on getting that money out of him is a whole different story.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Kiwirob
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RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 23, 2015 11:42 am

Quoting tu204 (Reply 92):
Oh Geez, nobody cares about those sanctions anymore.



And not all European countries are happy about the extensions either. Germany's even flouting them openly by agreeing to Nord Stream 2.

Quote:


But there is growing fatigue with the sanctions campaign among some E.U. countries, including Italy and France, which have long-standing trade ties to Russia in the energy sector. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi last week delayed the extension of the sanctions until he could confront German Chancellor Angela Merkel about what he sees as a double standard. Germany and Russia this year announced plans to build a natural gas pipeline between them through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Eastern Europe.

Renzi has complained that Merkel has forced other E.U. nations to agree to the sanctions even though Germany has engaged in projects that contravene the spirit of the effort, if not the letter of the law. Italy, in particular, is bitter that the new German-Russian project, known as Nord Stream-2, comes after the cancellation of a different pipeline project, South Stream, that would have been constructed in partnership with Italy’s Eni energy company. Bulgaria, another country that was poised to gain from the South Stream project, also has complained about the sanctions.

“I have some different ideas with Angela about a lot of dossiers. First about Nord Stream. Because I think it’s incredible to stop South Stream just one year ago and then accept the Nord Stream,” Renzi said after meeting with E.U. leaders last week. He said that “for the first time,” Germany was not in a majority on the issue in the closed-door meetings.

Merkel has tried to play down the differences, as well as the political implications of the German-Russian energy project.

“This is first and foremost a business proposition,” Merkel said of Nord Stream-2, speaking to reporters after the E.U. meetings. “Italy would have loved to participate in South Stream, which is very clear. Bulgaria also raised its voice.”

Battered by an influx of refugees from the conflict in Syria, European leaders have sought to make Russia a partner in the effort to stop the civil war there after it began bombing rebel and militant positions in September. Some leaders have sought to link progress in Syria with a rollback of the sanctions over Ukraine, diplomats say, an effort that the United States strenuously opposes.



The US and Ukraine need to back the fuck out of this, the EU should decide without outside interferience on when they should end sanctions.
 
tu204
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Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:14 pm

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 93):

Shows who makes the calls in the EU.

With these sanctions Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Bulgaria screwed themselves, every other EU country lost something with the sanctions and Russian countersanctions, doesn't seem anyone gained anything financially.

Interestingly enough, it is Western Eurpoean companies along with Americans that lost out in the sanctions against Russia (not Russian countersanctions, these nailed mainly Eastern Europe/Finland), Western financial institutions held hefty ammounts of rather high-paying and stable Russian long-term obligations. And they were forced to sell them at a loss, well, just because Washington and Brussels decided so. Even funnier is that Russia bought Russia's own obligations back at a discount. 

Now with Poland, Latvia and Lithuania I can understand that they just want to "stick it to Russia" even if it means living in the street, but Bulgaria, Finland and Germany have me wondering.

Why would they make that vote when it goes against their national interests? They don't care about Ukraine. Maybe someone from higher up is telling them what to do?

P.S. I'd also like to add a major point that nobody in the Russian or Western media bothers to ponder on: Russia's sanctions, ban of agricultural goods from the EU are more damaging than the figures we are given.
All these analysts only bother to count "Poland used to sell 500 apples for $500 to Russia a year, so Poland lost $500."
No, look deeper.
Polish farmers took out bank loans for farm equipment, fertilizer and so on so they could produce these 500 apples and calculating that these 500 apples would be bought by Russia for $500. When Russia banned them, conveniently right before harvest, the most these farmers could get for these 500 apples is say $250. But they still have that interest and loans to pay off...

Makes you think what the real damage is, eh?
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
sovietjet
Posts: 2586
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2003 12:32 am

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:22 pm

Quoting tu204 (Reply 94):
but Bulgaria, Finland and Germany have me wondering.

Bulgaria is mainly because of internal politics aimed to please you know who. The latest such fiasco was the decision to overhaul the MiG-29 engines in Poland instead of Russia. I think not making the Southstream was a mistake.
 
tu204
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Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:36 am

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Wed Dec 23, 2015 4:45 pm

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 95):
I think not making the Southstream was a mistake.

To be blunt: of course it was a mistake.
Bulgaria could have been one of the first countries on the route, thousands of jobs not just building but also servicing the pipeline. Transit fees and all, I fly Gazprom aerial surveillance flights weekly, got to know the engineers here personally. I was amazed at how many people it takes to keep a metal tube hidden 1m underground running...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Scipio
Posts: 883
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:38 am

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Thu Dec 24, 2015 11:16 am

Drone footage of destroyed Luhansk Airport, made by pro-Russian propagandist Graham Phillips:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbuk02RJCpA

Luhansk Airport was besieged by LPR rebels from June 9, 2014. Ukrainian forces evacuated the airport on September 1, 2014, under fire from approaching regular Russian Army units.
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 10928
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Thu Dec 24, 2015 9:01 pm

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 95):
I think not making the Southstream was a mistake.

It was a Russian decision to cancel Southstream, which makes the German decision to go ahead with Nordstream II all the more interesting, as it makes it far easier for Russia to bypass Ukraine.
 
Acheron
Posts: 1851
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:14 am

RE: Ukraine Crisis, Part 3

Thu Dec 24, 2015 9:16 pm

Quoting kiwirob (Reply 98):
Nordstream II

Europe doesn't really need the burden that would be Ukraine. They probably went along with the coup in 2014 by pressure of the US and their need to paint Russia into a corner...

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