|Quoting tu204 (Reply 102):|
A good Tiananmen-style cleanup on the Maidan and none of this would have happened...
Apart from being morally reprehensible, your proposed "ex-post" solution overlooks a number of things:
- That kind of cleanup was exactly what Yanukovych tried to achieve during the last few days of his rule. He did not only authorize but also order the use of large-scale lethal force against Maydan. However, too many people proved willing to risk, and lose, their lives in defense of Maydan, and too few members of the security services were willing to risk their lives or potential criminal prosecution to become mass murderers on behalf of a president who was never popular and who had discredited himself in the eyes of most of the population.
- Yanukovych did not have the security apparatus needed to crack down on dissent and the inevitable popular insurgency and/or mass revolts that would have followed a (hypothetical) successful cleanup of Maydan. During his four years in power, he was too busy stealing whatever he could to spare any serious money for the security apparatus (the Berkut being the exception). And many members of the security services hated him for this and for other reasons, including because many of them are just genuine Ukrainian patriots. His control of the media was also quite limited -- nothing like the near-absolute control that the Chinese authorities could exercise after the Tiananmen massacre.
- The inevitable outcome of a successful Maydan cleanup would have been a civil war. A real one -- unlike the fake civil conflict in Donbass that was just created by Russia to disguise a covert invasion. The outcome of the civil war would likely have been the same: the ouster of Yanukovych. It would just have taken more time and lives.
- The economic crisis would have been worse. It was inevitable anyway -- Ukraine was heading for an economic crash as a result of the massive robbery and grotesque incompetence of the Yanukovych regime (that's exactly why he was bargaining for a Russian bail-out, to gain a little more (stealing) time). Add a (real) civil war and western economic sanctions against the Yanukovych regime to the picture, and the collapse would have been far worse than what we have seen now. Any Russian aid would not have made much of a difference, just as it is not making much of a difference in occupied Donbass now. The economy and living standards in occupied Donbass have completely collapsed...
|Quoting tu204 (Reply 86):|
There is also a 10 day grace period, so if Ukraine doesn't pay on or before December 31st, 2016, it will officially be in default.
December 31 has come and gone and, guess what, no cataclysm has hit Ukraine... Its economic and financial relations with the rest of the world, Russia excepted, are undisturbed.
As I said before, the Russian debt has been effectively isolated, largely thanks to the obvious fact that Russia is not, and was not, a good-faith creditor and never seriously sought to negotiate.
The courts will decide, and I look forward to Russia making the case that the country it invaded, partially annexed, partially destroyed, and sought to undermine economically and otherwise in all sorts of ways should honor a debt to it that was issued in very questionable circumstances during the dying days of a kleptocratic, dictatorial and widely loathed regime. If there ever was an odious debt, this is it...
Remember how this debt was agreed ...
|Quoting tu204 (Reply 86):|
I want to draw everyone's attention again to how much emphasis is put on Ukrainians getting visa-free access to the EU by Ukraine's top-level politicians.Now my question, for what? We are not talking about Ukranians getting the right to work in the EU, but to travel to the EU.
Is that such a big deal for ordinary Ukranians right now? Is it even affordable for ordinary Ukranians right now?
It is important to the young, the affluent, and the influential, to businesses, and to the many reformers who are working hard and often (almost) for free to build a better Ukraine that is integrated with the rest of the world rather than being an economic and political colony of a dictatorial Russia. And nobody really likes to be artificially constrained to vacationing in their own country...
As to affordability, it is not as if flights to and from Ukraine are empty ...
There is a lot of hidden wealth in Ukraine. The official statistics capture, according to some estimates, only about 30% of Ukraine's economy.
|Quoting tu204 (Reply 35):|
200MW is the first line. Another 200MW line will be up before December 2015 and 400MW more before May 2016.
So in half a year Crimea will have 800MW from mainland Russia plus their own generating capacity of 200MW+.
So there is no more need for Ukrainian electricity, you guys screwed yourselves here. There was an export market with all the infrastructure for you, all you have to do is generate and sell. Instead you guys let idiot terrorists screw you.
We are January now, and Crimea continues to suffer electricity and heating cuts... The Kremlin's puppet leader of Crimea, Sergey "Goblin" Aksenov, seems to be losing his nerves over it ...
Ukraine partially restored some supply on one line to Crimea in December, but that line was cut again on December 31 due to a "fallen pylon".
The damage has been repaired, but at year-end the contract to deliver electricity to Crimea expired. Ukraine insists that any new contract should explicitly recognize that Crimea is a (temporarily occupied) part of Ukraine.
In another episode of his theater of the absurd, Putin ordered a poll of Crimeans and -- surprise, surprise -- this poll showed that 93% of Crimeans will rather suffer power cuts than accept Ukraine's conditions for a new contract.
Straight from the propaganda mouthpiece:
It's worth looking at the RT film supporting the article. The "pollsters" look like bikers from the Night Wolves ... Not intimidating at all...
One question remains. How come that it was just 93% rather than, as in good Soviet tradition, 99.9%?
[Edited 2016-01-05 18:42:42]