Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Andre3K wrote:And in your scenario why exactly would China and the US be at war?
DigitalSea wrote:Andre3K wrote:And in your scenario why exactly would China and the US be at war?
Why else is China investing so much in building up their military? Their version of state-sponsored Capitalism will allow them to compete with the United States on a level that the USSR never could. All of our ace-in-the-hole black projects aren't going to mean anything when their education/R&D subsidization starts producing results 5-10 years down the road. We've practically left the backdoor open since the Cold War and allowed them to steal a substantial amount of our technology. All because we underestimated them and continue to underestimate them.
Andre3K wrote:Are you delusional enough to think they would try to invade the US? Remember behind every blade of grass is a 2nd amendment American with a gun.
If not an invasion then what in the world are you talking about? We can't stop other countries from developing their economy, and we certainly can't stop their military progress. The bigger you get the more vulnerable you are.
Andre3K wrote:
You still didn't answer my question. Are you delusional enough to think they would try to invade the US? Remember behind every blade of grass is a 2nd amendment American with a gun.
If not an invasion then what in the world are you talking about? We can't stop other countries from developing their economy, and we certainly can't stop their military progress. The bigger you get the more vulnerable you are.
DigitalSea wrote:It's clear to everyone at this point that China is planning on expanding its military for a global presence similar to that of the United States, if not greater. This is evidenced by the massive investment in civilian/military R&D that is filtered to the PLA, increased defense spending, and the aggressive stance on fielding new systems as soon as possible. America on the other hand is currently suffering from victory disease after the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to things such as being focused on limited quantity, high price tag systems. Critics want to say that while China is building up at an alarming rate, their quality is still inferior to the United States.
DigitalSea wrote:But is quality everything? In a conflict, if you can overwhelm a force and use mass numbers as a strategic advantage, what's the point of having high quality/low quantity systems?
DigitalSea wrote:I think it's inevitable that the United States and China will clash at some point in the future. Years down the road when China's military is more formidable, would the United States have the numbers to hold back China in any type of conflict? Will the US start mass producing more platforms to keep up with China? Focus being on Tactical/Strategic & Naval assets.
Ozair wrote:Take air platforms as an example. The US currently has four fighter jet production lines (F-35. F-18, F-16, F-15) ranging from updated 4th gen aircraft to the latest 5th gen fighter. If they decided to run all production lines at rate they could easily take 200+ fighter aircraft a year, likely over 300 and perhaps even 350. What production lines does China currently operate? J-10, perhaps J-11 and it modifications (J-15, J-16), JH-7 and J-20. I’ve seen reports the J-10 produces about 24 a year, the J-11 and variants probably 24 as well and likely not that many J-20s. If we said perhaps 150 fighter aircraft a year we would be giving them a lot of credit.
Naval vessels are likely similar. China are probably manufacturing a few more smaller surface combatants per year but in the destroyer and above size range the USN has a steady production of high quality DDG-51 vessels, decent high quality carrier production including both large and amphib as well as a sizeable and fleet renewing of amphib vessels. The US maintains both a quality and quantity advantage with submarines and will likely remain so.
At some point in the future we will likely see mass production of drones (land sea and air) and other AI controlled systems and the scales may tip towards quantity but I don’t see any reason the Chinese will out produce the US in those areas.
Unlike China the US is energy independent, hence its economy could run comfortably without middle east oil, while the US has a wealth of natural resources (including food and water) that China doesn’t have and would have to acquire. Most nations today have structural problems with their economies but China’s are worse and with an aging workforce, high debt and manufacturing moving from the country I don’t see China being able to out produce anytime soon.
Finally, the Chinese military, as evidenced by the comparisons previously, are themselves moving towards a quality over quantity military. They have significantly less platforms today than they did 10 years ago and will continue to reduce in size but increase in quality, that is their stated intent. Quality typically takes more time, takes more money and for now appears to be worth it. Quantity works in certain scenarios, for instance land based where numbers can be massed for use, but typically in air and naval scenarios where China and the US would likely interact, there is a finite number of platforms that can be maintained in contested areas before they start conflicting with each other.
DigitalSea wrote:
They are looking to grow their military to project power around the globe, I don't think that will involve a reduction in platforms. The only indication I've seen with regards to downsizing anything is with PLA troop numbers.
The Chinese vision for a new PLAAF embraces a highly trained modern Air Force equipped with high tech aircraft, advanced precision-guided munitions, support aircraft that serve as force multipliers, and networked command, control, and intelligence capabilities that allow the PLAAF to fight and win a high-tech war under informationalized conditions. This force would not only be more capable of carrying out traditional missions such as air defense and support for ground forces against a modern adversary, but could also undertake offensive strikes against ground and naval targets further away from China’s borders. The new PLAAF will be a smaller force, but composed primarily of more advanced third- and fourth generation multirole fighters and fighter-bombers.
DigitalSea wrote:China can and will increase the production rate of their aircraft as they continue to modernize, they've shown no reluctance in holding back on fielding the new systems they are developing.
DigitalSea wrote:As for their focus on naval combat, they are estimated to have a pretty healthy fleet of diesel submarines with more in the pipeline and are looking to have a much larger carrier presence around the globe. They understand CAG are a source of strategic strength for the United States and they are developing their forces accordingly to be able to specifically counter that threat.
DigitalSea wrote:The United States isn't currently in a military build up stage and has had no reason to be since the USSR declined rapidly in the 70s and the 80s. I just hope we can stay on point enough to make the necessary changes in production and modernization if another is needed. We are slowly entering the next Cold War and China's hit the ground running. Trying to take comfort in any secret technological advantages we may have over China will only suffice for so long and there will come a turning point where that will no longer hold enough weight to keep the United States on top. This has been acknowledged repeatedly but unfortunately, as I keep pointing out, I think people are still underestimating China. Some still view them as a happy/friendly international trade partner with no ulterior motives and that perception needs to change.
LightningZ71 wrote:Its not just food production, its logistics.
LightningZ71 wrote:China also has a generation of males that have no real hope of having a family of their own domestically as their birth rate controls have resulted in a significant disparity in the gender mix of their population.
DigitalSea wrote:I honestly don't care what Ozair has to say
DigitalSea wrote:More than anything, I just want posters on this forum to be more aware of the threat from the Far East. In the 90s, the US recognized China as the next great threat but this got swept under the rug after 9/11 happened. Let's not make that mistake again, stay vigilant.