A320 MPA as Orion / Atlantic Replacement, France , Germany

kanban · Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:25 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
zeke wrote:
Did nothing for MH370

And they couldn’t find the lost argentine sub either.

I don't thing the results would have been any different with an Airbus, Japanese or any other manufacturers airframe..

Ozair · Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:18 pm

kanban wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
zeke wrote:
Did nothing for MH370

And they couldn’t find the lost argentine sub either.

I don't thing the results would have been any different with an Airbus, Japanese or any other manufacturers airframe..

Agree and given the significantly more specialized equipment that has been out there for a long time and also hasn’t found anything I not sure why such a claim has any relevance.

Kiwirob · Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:11 pm

Ozair wrote:
kanban wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:

And they couldn’t find the lost argentine sub either.

I don't thing the results would have been any different with an Airbus, Japanese or any other manufacturers airframe..

Agree and given the significantly more specialized equipment that has been out there for a long time and also hasn’t found anything I not sure why such a claim has any relevance.

It makes you wonder what is the point in an MPA doesn’t it.

Ozair · Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:58 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
It makes you wonder what is the point in an MPA doesn’t it.

I don’t think there is much doubt about the purpose of an MPA.

A maritime patrol aircraft (MPA), also known as a patrol aircraft, maritime reconnaissance aircraft, or by the older American term patrol bomber, is a fixed-wing aircraft designed to operate for long durations over water in maritime patrol roles — in particular anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-ship warfare (AShW), and search and rescue (SAR).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_patrol_aircraft

Within the search and rescue context we can’t expect the MPA to find something when, as it subsequently became clear, wasn’t actually there in the first place…

BawliBooch · Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:00 am

kanban wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
zeke wrote:
Did nothing for MH370

And they couldn’t find the lost argentine sub either.

I don't thing the results would have been any different with an Airbus, Japanese or any other manufacturers airframe..

I think the effectiveness of an aircraft is driven by the mission payload it is carrying. Most electronic suites available on MPA's today clearly fell short of the task of locating MH370 or the Argentinian sub. But its about the payload not the plane.

Perhaps defense suppliers should learn from that experience and develop modular electronic suites that can be mounted on A320MPA for such missions. I am assuming most modern MPA's will have a modular design with regards to payload? That you can swap in/swap out modules from an aircraft based on the specific mission?

If we are not there yet, then perhaps Airbus must consider adopting this modular design approach to give its operators more flexibility.

zeke · Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:54 am

kanban wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
zeke wrote:
Did nothing for MH370

And they couldn’t find the lost argentine sub either.

I don't thing the results would have been any different with an Airbus, Japanese or any other manufacturers airframe..

So only the failures would be the same with other manufacturers however the positives only possible on the P-8, have I got that right ?

N328KF · Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:32 pm

The ship has sailed on the best non-captive order prospects for an A320-family maritime patrol aircraft. Who's left? France and Germany as order certainties? How many orders is that?

JetBuddy · Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:10 pm

VSMUT wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Kiwirob wrote:
Or thinking outside the square team up with BAe and utalise the equipment developed for the Nimrod MRA4.

Wasn't that scrapped and "cleaned" like the Avro Arrow Project ? i.e. unavailable for reuse as either hardware or knowhow.

Only the aircraft/airframes themselves. The electronic equipment was stripped. It will still need some work though, the exact equipment used on the MRA4 will be approach 20 years of age.

But they wouldn't necessarily have to team up with BAe. Most of the important stuff is delivered by subcontractors anyway, but just to mention a few of the bigger names:

Airbus Military itself has done modernization of P-3s, and builds C-235/295 based MPAs. They also did the A319MPA work in the 90s.
Lockheed Martin was left out of the market when the Orion 21/P-7 lost out to the P-8.
Dassault did the Atlantique 3 development work in the 1990s, and also has experience with the Atlantique 1 and 2, as well as a few Falcon based MPAs.
SAAB has the Swordfish line based on the Q400 and Global Express.
Leonardo/Alenia has experience with the ATR 72 ASW.
Various Japanese corporations could bring expertise and technology from the P-1 project.
Embraer has the ERJ-145 based MPA as well.

I don't think there's any doubt that Airbus Defence & Space could pull this project off. They know what they're doing. The question is if there's enough of a market left after P-8A has swept up all these orders lately.

If costs could be kept to an absolute minimum, maybe it would be worth doing with a few dozen secure orders from France and Germany. It would be based on the A320neo after all, which will most likely be in production for 20 more years or so. Keeping the A320MPA on offer for this period of time might recoup the investment. I'm sure there will be careful calculations done on this.

bikerthai · Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:12 pm

zeke wrote:
Did nothing for MH370

From what I hear, the MH370 shows the benefit of a jet over a prop. The distance involved to the search site means that a jet an get there faster which translate to longer on time station (even if the over-all flight time is diminished).

As for the Argentine sub, I did not follow that event, closely. But if that sub went down fast, by the time any air asset got to the scene, the hull would have been at the bottom of the ocean and you are now in a recovery mode as opposed to SAR.

bt

bikerthai · Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:17 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
rhaps defense suppliers should learn from that experience and develop modular electronic suites that can be mounted on A320MPA for such missions. I am assuming most modern MPA's will have a modular design with regards to payload?

Modular design require more space as to make it modular you have to build in extra capability to be adaptable. A modular "attach to the fuselage" sensor system does exist, I am not sure if it have been offered or have had any customer. That is all I can say.

bt

WIederling · Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:46 pm

bikerthai wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
rhaps defense suppliers should learn from that experience and develop modular electronic suites that can be mounted on A320MPA for such missions. I am assuming most modern MPA's will have a modular design with regards to payload?

Modular design require more space as to make it modular you have to build in extra capability to be adaptable. A modular "attach to the fuselage" sensor system does exist, I am not sure if it have been offered or have had any customer. That is all I can say.

The A310 MRTT has pretty diverse pallet centric stuffing. ( obviously not MPA related :-)

A320 with a freight door could provide for similar setup.

zeke · Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:58 pm

bikerthai wrote:
From what I hear, the MH370 shows the benefit of a jet over a prop. The distance involved to the search site means that a jet an get there faster which translate to longer on time station (even if the over-all flight time is diminished).

The first aircraft out there were P-3s, and they were down low with two engines shutdown searching. P-8 were late to scene.

The P-8 did not match the speed or endurance of the gulfsteams sent out there.

If I recall correctly the P-8 had a few false radar contacts, and P-3s were sent to the locations to make low level assessments.

zeke · Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:03 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Modular design require more space as to make it modular you have to build in extra capability to be adaptable. A modular "attach to the fuselage" sensor system does exist, I am not sure if it have been offered or have had any customer. That is all I can say.

Airbus already has a modular maritime survallance kit in service, designed to be removed from the aircraft to be reconfigured for different roles.

http://www.airbus.com/defence/c295.html

bikerthai · Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:40 pm

zeke wrote:
P-8 were late to scene.

If I remember right, this was the first deployment of the P-8 abroad.

zeke wrote:

The P-8 did not match the speed or endurance of the gulfsteams sent out there.

No argument there . . .

zeke wrote:

If I recall correctly the P-8 had a few false radar contacts, and P-3s were sent to the locations to make low level assessments.

Radar contacts are radar contact, it would not become false until the P-3 investigates. If the P-3 were not there, the P-8 would have had to go down and verify itself. It may have been a tag team effort where one aircraft stay aloft to do the scanning pattern while another stay on the deck to chase after any leads.

bt

VSMUT · Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:27 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
I don't think there's any doubt that Airbus Defence & Space could pull this project off. They know what they're doing. The question is if there's enough of a market left after P-8A has swept up all these orders lately.

If costs could be kept to an absolute minimum, maybe it would be worth doing with a few dozen secure orders from France and Germany. It would be based on the A320neo after all, which will most likely be in production for 20 more years or so. Keeping the A320MPA on offer for this period of time might recoup the investment. I'm sure there will be careful calculations done on this.

Who says that they need to sell a lot? The base aircraft is already long established in production. ATR/Alenia did the ATR 72 ASW with just 8 orders for Turkey and 6 less comprehensive variants for Italy. The equipment can mostly be sourced elsewhere, no need to reinvent the wheel.

They could even run it through the European Union like the recent tanker deals, and even seek EU funds for the development.

Looking at potential orders, the current fleet looks like this:
France: 22x Atlantiques
Germany: 8x P-3s

If we involved other EU nations who haven't ordered anything yet, then we get:
Greece: 4-6x P-3s.
Portugal: 5x P-3s
Spain: 6x P-3s

I could also see Sweden, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium and Italy being interested in joining a partnership. Thats upwards of 50 already.

Additionally, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Turkey, Pakistan, Canada, New Zealand, South Korea and more could all be potential export customers.

bikerthai · Fri Feb 23, 2018 2:46 pm

VSMUT, are you talking about the ATR or the A320 MMA. I can see the ATR getting good sales, but the A320 is in the same class of the P-8A and the P-1, and would get stiff competition from the two.

South Korea and New Zealand have are well on the way to get US government approval for the P-8. Doesn't mean it's a lock, but looks like they may already be leaning. Specifically, South Korea needs are now any may not wait too long for the A320 MMA.

bt

BawliBooch · Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:45 am

Apart from initial purchase cost, there is also the issue of Ownership cost spread across the aircrafts useful life. How do these 3 - A320, P8i and the P1 - compare on that score?

CX747 · Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:20 pm

How this moves forward will dictate the direction of the orders. There is already a proven platform in the P-8 operating or scheduled for delivery with the US, UK, Australia, India and Norway.

So 2 of NATO'S largest forces have spoken for the P-8 with several other major players agreeing. For interoperability purposes that is huge, not to mention training and maintenance needs. Let's not put aside that the P-8 is already in the field. In addition, the US is also outfitting Reykjavik as a P-8 operating base. If this is about NATO working closer together then we already have a very good answer that is a turn key solution.

keesje · Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:41 pm

I think the European nations would like to stay more independent and protect European jobs.

Europe First in the current political climate I'm afraid.

Merkel & Macron struck a deal and others are free to buy or not.

CX747 · Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:07 pm

Time will tell how this plays out. The latest news has New Zealand and Saudi Arabia selecting the P-8.

Slug71 · Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:04 am

Wouldn't hold my breath, but now that South Africa has a new President, maybe the SAAF could be a contender. They desperately need new MPAs but also need a larger military budget.

bikerthai · Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:40 pm

BawliBooch wrote:
Apart from initial purchase cost, there is also the issue of Ownership cost spread across the aircrafts useful life. How do these 3 - A320, P8i and the P1 - compare on that score?

The A320 frame and the 737 will have lower maintenance and spares support cost. The A320 NEO being a newer frame and might out last the 737 NG in the long run. But both frame seems to have sufficient support to last the life of the program.

The only thing I see that will put the P-8A over the A320 MMA with respect to the ownership cost and useful life is anyone with a P-8A and the P-8I for that matter, can benefit from any mission system upgrades that the US Navy decides to implement. Once the US Navy pay for any upgrades, it's just a matter of buying the upgrade (with the standard FMS fees) and not having to pay for the up-front development. This was done with many of the AWACS upgrades that NATO received.

In fact, the next batch of P-8I aircraft will get the mission computing upgrade that the US Navy incorporated a few lots ago. In this case it may be more of a convenience for Boeing as it would keep the production line more common. But for India it's also a win as they got upgraded system without all the hassle and cost of doing or paying for the development themselves.

bt

angad84 · Mon Feb 26, 2018 5:54 pm

bikerthai wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
Apart from initial purchase cost, there is also the issue of Ownership cost spread across the aircrafts useful life. How do these 3 - A320, P8i and the P1 - compare on that score?

The A320 frame and the 737 will have lower maintenance and spares support cost. The A320 NEO being a newer frame and might out last the 737 NG in the long run. But both frame seems to have sufficient support to last the life of the program.

The only thing I see that will put the P-8A over the A320 MMA with respect to the ownership cost and useful life is anyone with a P-8A and the P-8I for that matter, can benefit from any mission system upgrades that the US Navy decides to implement. Once the US Navy pay for any upgrades, it's just a matter of buying the upgrade (with the standard FMS fees) and not having to pay for the up-front development. This was done with many of the AWACS upgrades that NATO received.

In fact, the next batch of P-8I aircraft will get the mission computing upgrade that the US Navy incorporated a few lots ago. In this case it may be more of a convenience for Boeing as it would keep the production line more common. But for India it's also a win as they got upgraded system without all the hassle and cost of doing or paying for the development themselves.

bt

What's the current production Increment/Block standard? Have they fielded the sensor-unification software they planned to?

bikerthai · Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:26 pm

angad84 wrote:
What's the current production Increment/Block standard?

Here is what is published:

" Improvements to the Navy P-8s under the Increment 3 phase of will soon be carried out including the addition of wideband satellite communication capability, in addition, in December, work was completed on the first P-8 aircraft to have a sixth workstation on board under the Increment 2 phase to better deal with the workload on the aircraft and all aircraft produced from now on will incorporate the sixth workstation while in-service aircraft will have them fitted in."

From:

https://news.usni.org/2018/02/14/navy-p ... tions-asia

You can probably infer that by the time the India plus option comes around, increment improvements on the US planes that are common to the India planes will be available for the India planes. And since the CFM engines on the P-8A and P-8I are basically the same as the commercial variant, the recent fuel burn improvements incorporated on the commercial variant is a free-be for the future batches of P-8's.

I believe India may already have the sixth work station installed. So the incremental improvement may be mostly updates to the electronic boxes.

bt

columba · Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:51 am

According to German media reports the two ministers of defence of France and Germany will sign a letter of intent to develop a new MPA on April 27th.

Slug71 · Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:31 pm

columba wrote:
According to German media reports the two ministers of defence of France and Germany will sign a letter of intent to develop a new MPA on April 27th.

Will be interesting to see what comes of this.

Kiwirob · Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:43 pm

CX747 wrote:
Time will tell how this plays out. The latest news has New Zealand and Saudi Arabia selecting the P-8.

The NZ govts has put the Orian and Herc replacement on the back burner for now. They let the P8 options drop.

ZaphodHarkonnen · Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:30 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
CX747 wrote:
Time will tell how this plays out. The latest news has New Zealand and Saudi Arabia selecting the P-8.

The NZ govts has put the Orian and Herc replacement on the back burner for now. They let the P8 options drop.

Link? Only news I've seen recently is tapping the brakes on the P-3 replacement after asking the US for an extension on the P-8 offer.

keesje · Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:12 pm

Most likely it will become a derivative. Using high MTOW A320NEO components.

It the market is large enough a dedicated optimized platform might become feasible.

It seems the requirements changed a lot since the cold war.

Aircraft like the CN-235 / 295 MPA and ATR 42/72 MP could provide coastal coverage.

A bigger platform should probably be more capable than traditional ASW / patrol.

Kiwirob · Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:33 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:

Link? Only news I've seen recently is tapping the brakes on the P-3 replacement after asking the US for an extension on the P-8 offer.

Sorry no link.

Kiwirob · Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:34 pm

keesje wrote:
Most likely it will become a derivative. Using high MTOW A320NEO components.

It the market is large enough a dedicated optimized platform might become feasible.

It seems the requirements changed a lot since the cold war.

Aircraft like the CN-235 / 295 MPA and ATR 42/72 MP could provide coastal coverage.

A bigger platform should probably be more capable than traditional ASW / patrol.

Or they could do that smart thing and buy the already existing built for purpose P1 and add local content.

LockheedBBD · Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:30 am

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germ ... SKCN1HD29A

German navy officials were not immediately available for further comment on the program, or how it will tie into an effort by eight NATO allies, including France and Germany, to cooperate on “multinational maritime multi-mission aircraft capabilities.” The program also includes Canada, Poland, Italy, Spain, Turkey and Greece.

VSMUT · Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:20 am

LockheedBBD wrote:
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germ ... SKCN1HD29A

German navy officials were not immediately available for further comment on the program, or how it will tie into an effort by eight NATO allies, including France and Germany, to cooperate on “multinational maritime multi-mission aircraft capabilities.” The program also includes Canada, Poland, Italy, Spain, Turkey and Greece.

Interesting. Those nations between them currently operate 53 Orions and Atlantiques, as well as numerous smaller types such as Casa's and PZL M28s. Poland, Italy and Turkey completely lack equipment in this class, although Italy used to operate 18x Atlantiques. We could be looking at about 70 just for the program partners. It could well exceed 100 orders with potential exports included.

Ozair · Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:43 pm

VSMUT wrote:

Interesting. Those nations between them currently operate 53 Orions and Atlantiques, as well as numerous smaller types such as Casa's and PZL M28s. Poland, Italy and Turkey completely lack equipment in this class, although Italy used to operate 18x Atlantiques. We could be looking at about 70 just for the program partners. It could well exceed 100 orders with potential exports included.

I agree there is a joint need for MPA but I'm not sure they all share the same requirements. There really is two classes of MPA that could be used and I'd argue that the P-3/P-8 class, and potentially an A320 if it eventuates, is too big for a number of nations. The use of P-3s/Atlantiques are a legacy of the Cold War and the platform size required to host 70/80s era systems and hunt the Soviet submarine threat.

In that context, of those nations listed in the article, Poland, Italy, Germany, Turkey and Greece would probably be better placed by a more cost effective smaller solution based around a CN-295 instead of a larger A320.

Kiwirob wrote:

Or they could do that smart thing and buy the already existing built for purpose P1 and add local content.

I can't see that happening. The overall integration of MPA mission systems into an A320 shouldn't be too difficult, an internal bomb bay may stretch the dev budget though.

parapente · Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:58 pm

Imho it only makes sense if all these countries are involved,there is a need for scale.Otherwise the P8 seems to do the job perfectly well -no?

VSMUT · Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:20 pm

parapente wrote:
Imho it only makes sense if all these countries are involved,there is a need for scale.Otherwise the P8 seems to do the job perfectly well -no?

The P-8 is going out of production soon, and with the recent turn taken by the US government, American products are (luckily) going out of favour in the EU.

bikerthai · Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:18 pm

VSMUT wrote:
The P-8 is going out of production soon, and with the recent turn taken by the US government,

If by soon you mean 5 to 10 years from now, you will be right. If they were to fulfill the current US requirement of about 117 frames and add to that the international orders, you will reach the 5 years threshold. If you add to that some potential future sales to both the US and India (and additional options from the RAAF and UK) you may be able to approach 10 years (optimistic).

If the contract to the A320 MMA were to be signed today, figuring about 1-2 years for design/development, 1-2 years for mod and testing, you'll get the first frame in about 5 years (if there is no significant delays).

Either way, by that time, the US administration, and policies, will change (Democrat or Republican, it doesn't matter).

bt

KICT · Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:40 am

Surely a well-target EMP would render that A320's flight control system useless in short order.

VSMUT · Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:40 am

bikerthai wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
The P-8 is going out of production soon, and with the recent turn taken by the US government,

If by soon you mean 5 to 10 years from now, you will be right. If they were to fulfill the current US requirement of about 117 frames and add to that the international orders, you will reach the 5 years threshold. If you add to that some potential future sales to both the US and India (and additional options from the RAAF and UK) you may be able to approach 10 years (optimistic).

If the contract to the A320 MMA were to be signed today, figuring about 1-2 years for design/development, 1-2 years for mod and testing, you'll get the first frame in about 5 years (if there is no significant delays).

Either way, by that time, the US administration, and policies, will change (Democrat or Republican, it doesn't matter).

bt

The 737NG orderbook is rapidly running dry. It has less than a year of production left. Any Next Generation specific parts will have to be ordered well in advance, hence why ordering the P-8 in 3 years wont be possible.

bikerthai · Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:19 pm

VSMUT wrote:
. Any Next Generation specific parts will have to be ordered well in advance, hence why ordering the P-8 in 3 years wont be possible.

There is a minimum P-8A production rate that Boeing can support even when the commercial NG line shuts down. So, as long as there is sufficient P-8 orders, they can keep it going, it would just cost more. 3-5 years may be accurate in terms of getting the order in.

bt

Slug71 · Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:10 pm

KICT wrote:
Surely a well-target EMP would render that A320's flight control system useless in short order.

It will most likely be hardened. Just like the P-8 and many other military aircraft.

OA940 · Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:26 am

ThePointblank wrote:
It appears there are multiple countries interested in a joint development for a new MPA:

https://www.defensenews.com/smr/munich- ... craft-buy/

France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and now, Poland and Canada are all working to jointly buy a fleet of new maritime patrol aircraft.

Of the contenders, Boeing is of course proposing the P-8, while Airbus is expected to bid with the A320 based MPA. Bombardier and Saab is proposing their own MPA based off the Global 6000 platform.

Well if they're looking for an MPA I doubt a puny little Global 6000 will do them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of those countries would get the P-8 instead, especially if they want these planes fast.

r2rho · Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:53 am

Such a project makes the most sense at a European level, with a common force shared by several nations, as is the case with the nascent tanker force. It's nice for France and Germany to take the initiative, but others need to join in. There are smaller nations which could not efficiently operate a tiny fleet of 2-3 A320MPA's, but as a pooled asset, it would work.
As has been said, these still need to be complemented by smaller aicraft, whether C235/295, ATR or G6000.

I wouldn't look at the program from a commercial point of view - the desire here is likely to maintain an indigenous capability, and France and Germany are probably willing to foot the development bill. Any commercial success, if at all, is icing on the cake.
Having said that, basing it on the NEO rather than CEO should give it some interesting capabilities... the question is if the P-8 will have eaten up the whole market by the time this aircraft enters service.

If the contract to the A320 MMA were to be signed today, figuring about 1-2 years for design/development, 1-2 years for mod and testing, you'll get the first frame in about 5 years (if there is no significant delays).

Way too optimistic. The way EU "cooperation" works on these things, expect 10 years from launch to EIS if all goes well.

columba · Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:47 am

LockheedBBD wrote:
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germ ... SKCN1HD29A

German navy officials were not immediately available for further comment on the program, or how it will tie into an effort by eight NATO allies, including France and Germany, to cooperate on “multinational maritime multi-mission aircraft capabilities.” The program also includes Canada, Poland, Italy, Spain, Turkey and Greece.

Maybe they will form a joint squadron like the Nato E3s or the French/German Hercules.

VSMUT · Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:52 pm

This project will be a prime candidate for European Defence Fund grants too. These only apply on European aircraft and equipment of course, so 737, C-130, Dash-8 and Global 6000 based projects won't apply.

cumulushumilis · Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:15 pm

VSMUT wrote:
This project will be a prime candidate for European Defence Fund grants too. These only apply on European aircraft and equipment of course, so 737, C-130, Dash-8 and Global 6000 based projects won't apply.

I think its too early to speculate what the aircraft and sensor suite will be. They are still trying to iron out what the requirements for a future platform would be. Based on the level of cooperation being shown at higher levels (NATO) the most logical conclusion at this early level is that they will attempt to write a specification and then determine which aircraft/sensor suite application fits it the best and is in the best economic/defense interests of all nations. Remember as well Canada just signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the EU and this is one of those projects where I can see a lot of benefit for both sides. The actual aircraft can be secondary to the sensor suite.

It was Canada that originally mashed a P-3A airframe with a S-3 Viking sensor suite, that again has been upgraded to a new sensor suite with all Canadian Technology. Prior to that it was the CP-107 Argus, which was a highly modified Britannia airframe mashed with radial engines and whole bunch of other stuff. Currently its the long delayed and over cost CH-148 Cyclone that is mashed with a whole bunch of indigenous ASW and sensor technology. Yes the Cyclone has had a lot of airframe/engine/procurement issues, however the technical expertise that is brought to the program is significant

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_152066.htm.

http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/business-equipment/procurement-projects/aurora-cp-140.page

Ozair · Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:33 am

Well this is an interesting turn of events. Perhaps the P-1 has a small chance of getting in the door...

Japan seeks role in French-German marine surveillance plane project: sources

In a fresh bid to win its first major foreign arms deal since World War Two, Japan is proposing its P-1 submarine hunter for a French-German project to develop a marine surveillance aircraft, two Japanese government sources said

Discussion between the three governments began last year. Japanese officials also asked Kawasaki Heavy Industries, which makes the P-1, to discuss possible partnerships with France’s Dassault Aviation and Thales SA, said the sources, who have direct knowledge of the proposal but are not authorized to speak to the media.

“If they try and build it from scratch it will cost a lot and their potential market is small, even if Spain or other European countries buy it,” one of the sources said of the European project.

But the P-1 may be a tough sell in a competition with plenty of home-field heavyweights.

Airbus has said it is exploring military applications for its A320neo passenger jet family, including a maritime patrol version. Two European defense sources said French planemaker Dassault Aviation is ready to adapt its Falcon 8X business jet for such missions. Both companies declined to comment.

Boeing is also likely to offer its P-8A Poseidon.

“We have introduced the P-1 to other countries with the backing of the Japanese Ministry of Defence,” a Kawasaki Heavy spokeswoman said. “However, we are not able to discuss individual cases.”

A Ministry of Defense spokesman in Tokyo said Japan was looking at several ways to work with France and Germany on defense technologies after signing separate cooperation agreements. But the spokesman added that “we are not in talks aimed at joint developments and have no plan to conceive a three-way project.”

Germany wants to replace its aging fleet of maritime surveillance planes in response to an increase in Russian submarine patrols to a level not seen since the end of the Cold War.

The defense ministers from Germany and France will sign a document at this week’s Berlin Airshow agreeing to explore the joint development of a new maritime surveillance aircraft, German military sources said.

A spokesman for the German defense ministry declined to comment on discussions, adding, “Germany and France are considering many possibilities to expand the existing good cooperation between the two countries’ militaries.”

The two countries are exploring several other joint procurement or development projects, including a new fighter jet and a military drone. The two countries will also jointly operate a new fleet of Lockheed Martin C-130J transport planes.

Officials at the French embassy in Tokyo were not immediately available to comment.
OVERSEAS SALES

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ended a decades-long ban on arms exports four years ago.

But since then, his government has been unable to sell defense gear overseas as long-isolated Japanese defense contractors struggled in the competitive global arms market.

In 2015, Japan offered the P-1 to Britain, which chose Boeing’s P-8 instead from a crowded field. In 2016 it lost out on a lucrative contract to supply Australia with a fleet of diesel-powered submarines, work that went to French naval contractor DCNS.

European defense analysts and military sources cautioned that the P-1 would face stiff competition for the French-German project, which aims to field a new aircraft by 2035.

“At this point, it’s completely premature to either say Japan and Kawasaki have a chance or that they do not,” said one of the military sources.

Japan, which wants stronger security ties with France and Germany, plans to display two of its P-1 aircraft at the five-day Berlin air show. The P-1, which is designed to operate both at high altitude and at low speeds closer to the water, is replacing Japan’s fleet of turboprop Lockheed Martin P-3C Orions.

Germany also operates the Orion, while France flies the Atlantique 2, or ATL2, produced by Dassault Aviation in the 1980s.

Saab, Bombardier, Israel Aerospace Industry and Leonardo are among other companies seeking to enter the maritime patrol market.

The P-1 patrols Japan’s territorial waters stretching from the Pacific to the East China Sea, where Beijing and Tokyo are locked in a territorial dispute over a group of uninhabited islets.

The four-engine aircraft, which was delayed by fuselage and wing cracks and engine problems, entered service in 2015. It is the world’s first production aircraft to use fiber optic cables to transmit flight control commands from its cockpit.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-defence-germany-france/japan-seeks-role-in-french-german-marine-surveillance-plane-project-sources-idUSKBN1HW088?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%204.25.18&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief

I'd say an A320 still has the highest chance but intersting to see that the Japanese have been pushing this for over a year.

bikerthai · Wed Apr 25, 2018 1:16 pm

Fielded by 2035? Unless they push the time line to the left, the P-8A is probably out of contention then.

bt

Ozair · Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:10 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Fielded by 2035? Unless they push the time line to the left, the P-8A is probably out of contention then.

bt

More likely that should read 2025 given that is the timeframe Germany and France were working to.

Slug71 · Thu Apr 26, 2018 2:34 am

bikerthai wrote:
Fielded by 2035? Unless they push the time line to the left, the P-8A is probably out of contention then.

bt

I don't think there's much contention for the P-8A anyway TBH.

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