Dutchy wrote:Replacing 12 MiG-21's with 30 F-16's?
TripleDelta wrote:Dutchy wrote:Replacing 12 MiG-21's with 30 F-16's?
Two for active duty, and 28 for spares .
Though, I'd take that info with a huge grain of salt. 30 jets for USD 500.000.000? That's USD 16.000.000 a pop including armament, spares, support equipment and training. So, that's a fighter - admittedly used - for the price of a mid-size business jet? Really? Or Israeli media trying to spin the whole deal to drum up headlines on a wave of cheap local pride?
Dutchy wrote:I think the Dutch sold their old F-16's off for around 10mio a pop, so not unrealistic the 16mio.
TripleDelta wrote:At USD 16 million a pop, this sounds like a bit of a stretch to be honest. Then there are other issues that need to be considered - not part of the actual buy, but nevertheless further money pits which have to be factored into the equation:
Ozair wrote:Something to remember is that these aircraft essentially cost Israel nothing. They were paid for through US military aid, as were most of the upgrades that were made to them over their lifetimes. In that context if it is US$500 million for 30 airframes it is not too unrealistic.
Ozair wrote:Noting that Canada paid US$300 million for 18 RAAF Classic Hornets in their current state, for aircraft with likely less hours available but better current capability it doesn't seem outside expectations. I also expect a number of those airframes may be used for spares and delivered in a non flyable condition.
mig21umd wrote:One thing I don't doubt here is the professionalism and capability of the guys and girls in the CroAF to see this transformation through. Despite nepotism being alive and well within some parts of Croatian society I don't think it is the case in the military, especially when it comes to the airforce pilots and technicians. The selection criteria is very demanding and they don't seem to falter from this.
The fact that they cost nothing does not prevent Israel from "earning a quick buck" on their sale. The last thing we'll see in this whole deal is altruism.
TripleDelta wrote:The key difference here is that Canada bought an aircraft type it already has in its inventory. At the moment they took the Oz birds in, they already had the necessary ground infrastructure, armament, spares, training, tools and so on.
TripleDelta wrote:Croatia taking on the F-16 is financially a whole different kettle of fish. For the Air Force, switching from the MiG-21 to the F-16 is like going from a piston airliner to a modern jet; it requires a complete change of thinking and infrastructure to make it work.
Ozair wrote:I don't think the change is that great. Plenty of other air forces have managed that transition and the global support base for the F-16 is huge so there is plenty of industrial knowledge available.
TripleDelta wrote:Since pushing for the completion of the squadron just as you're preparing to scrap it makes little sense even by Balkan standards, this could very well mean that the final choice for the MiG replacement could still be a while off...
mig21umd wrote:Maybe but the first 'new' jets planned to be delivered from 2020 through to 2022 so the extra 4 MIG jets if they get them could be useful to ensure a capability exists until the new squadron is fully operational.
mig21umd wrote:I would wonder if Ukraine would be in a position to give away 4 Mig-21s. Not sure if they used this capability during the recent conflict but by no means that war has come to a complete end and a number of overhauled fighters could be against their national interest to give away. This could just be a way of Croatia trying to secure some type of compensation for the recent overhaul fiasco but a few extra Migs if they can get them in a reasonable amount of time.... why not?
TripleDelta wrote:mig21umd wrote:I would wonder if Ukraine would be in a position to give away 4 Mig-21s. Not sure if they used this capability during the recent conflict but by no means that war has come to a complete end and a number of overhauled fighters could be against their national interest to give away. This could just be a way of Croatia trying to secure some type of compensation for the recent overhaul fiasco but a few extra Migs if they can get them in a reasonable amount of time.... why not?
That's roughly what the MoD wants them to do, as reported by the media: take the four problematic ones back and supply Croatia with four different examples, all at no additional cost.
As for the strategic impact, the Ukraine has far more potent machinery in its inventory to be bothered by losing a few MiG-21s (which it doesn't even operate anymore).
TripleDelta wrote:The media is now saying that the decision should be made within one and a half months... by the same defense council that had been shot down the last time.
Further details of the Israeli offer had also begun to emerge - key among which is Israel's desire to set up a F-16 training center at ZAD, complete with a full-motion sim. They're also interested in buying out the country's biggest aircraft maintenance facility - the ZTC works next to ZAG - and turning it into a regional F-16 service depot.
TripleDelta wrote:Other bits include investment into agriculture, shipbuilding, tourism and the energy and IT sectors. Of particular interest is Israel's stated desire to cooperate with local universities and companies in the fields of robotics, explosive ordnance removal and cyber security (with the development of protection from drones having been singled out). Elbit is also keen on establishing a factory for infantry-type munitions.
More interesting than all of this is that the details of SAAB's offer (the only realistic alternative at this point) have not been made public. All of the info above has been published in the media without citing any sources - which suggest that it did not come from official MoD channels.
Ozair wrote:Makes sense although who do we expect to get their F-16s serviced in Croatia?
Ozair wrote:LOL, Israel is outSaabing Saab with the industry and university cooperation...
TripleDelta wrote:The news are reporting that the decision has been made, and that it'll be made to the public next week.
Ozair wrote:I know you and MiG-21umd are hot on news for this but wondered if anything had been released locally yet?
mig21umd wrote:Looks like the recent delays were because Croatia was waiting on guarantees from the US that Israel could sell the F-16's to Croatia and that the US based support would be available if needed to Croatia. Expecting it will be officially announced today or sometime this week. (hope I didn't just jinx it)
https://www.jutarnji.hr/vijesti/hrvatsk ... o/7170702/
TripleDelta wrote:And it's official: the F-16 is being recommended, which just leaves the government to give the final approval.
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