YIMBY
Posts: 329
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:04 am

Ozair wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So the big question is, which fighters will be in production then?

Well from the list of potential candidates approached by Canada,

F-35 – Confirmed and there will be ~1300 F-35s flying by 2025.
Rafale- Confirmed (The French recently announced plans for additional aircraft out to 2025).
Super Hornet – Unlikely. With only Kuwait to go for export and likely limited USN purchases going forward its days are numbered.
Eurofighter – Probably. It will at least be in production until 2022 when the Canadians plan to sign a contract so if selected it would be able to continue production and fulfil a Canadian order.
Gripen E – Unlikely candidate but will be in production in that timeframe.


Depends a lot of other countries' decision. Other than unpredictable ME countries purchasing unpredictable amount of unpredictable planes, in Europe at least Finland will buy a rather equal amount of rather similar planes probably just before Canada (Poland etc less likely and smaller amounts). Finnish conditions are rather similar to Canada (cold weather, road strips to be used as airfield) but military environment is very different. There is a small chance that Finland will make Eurofighter to survive until Canadian order and smaller chance for Super Hornet (if that is politically eligible for Canada anyway, but which is then).
 
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keesje
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:00 pm

I think over the last 3 months the chances for the Rafale have not been reduced. The partnerships between US (Trump), France (Macron), Canada (Trudeau) and Germany (Merkel) changed of time. The US decided to focus on their own needs / interest and that's their good right.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ozair
Posts: 2154
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:28 pm

YIMBY wrote:
Depends a lot of other countries' decision. Other than unpredictable ME countries purchasing unpredictable amount of unpredictable planes, in Europe at least Finland will buy a rather equal amount of rather similar planes probably just before Canada (Poland etc less likely and smaller amounts). Finnish conditions are rather similar to Canada (cold weather, road strips to be used as airfield) but military environment is very different. There is a small chance that Finland will make Eurofighter to survive until Canadian order and smaller chance for Super Hornet (if that is politically eligible for Canada anyway, but which is then).

It does depend. While Rafale will have domestic orders past 2022 the UK and Italian Eurofighter lines will be reliant on exports, which are already identified, as I don’t see any further orders coming from the partner nations.

There has been a change in the fortunes of the SH and a saving grace for Boeing as the US in their just released defence budget stated a plan to continue procuring SH, so that will continue into the early 2020s, ensuring that there is at least a production line available to order from. I haven’t seen any reports further to the earlier statement that Boeing hadn’t even bothered to turn up to the Industry brief and signaled their intent by the 9th of February. I haven’t found any news reports on this either.

Finland will probably end up making their decision either the year before or at about the same time as Canada so it will be interesting to see how they go.

keesje wrote:
I think over the last 3 months the chances for the Rafale have not been reduced. The partnerships between US (Trump), France (Macron), Canada (Trudeau) and Germany (Merkel) changed of time. The US decided to focus on their own needs / interest and that's their good right.

Given the Canadians will be making the final decision in 2022 I doubt Trump will be a factor. Despite your suggestion Canada is still close to the US politically and militarily and the demands of NORAD “trump” those of NATO, especially under Trudeau. While Rafale is certainly not excluded from the competition there are some obvious issues with selecting it, including integrating into the NORAD structure, weapons compatibility and the lack of industrial support or industry return. Plus it will not be either the most capable platform or the cheapest in 2022 when the decision is made.
 
bigjku
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:48 pm

I feel like equally as likely as any order getting placed is Canada simply not buying anything at all. They are trending more and more in that direction. I wouldn’t be stunned if they just get out of the business.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:42 pm

bigjku wrote:
I wouldn’t be stunned if they just get out of the business.

:rotfl:

That would result in quite a lot of savings; so let's cut defense spending! (As some of our European NATO allies are already doing).
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:35 pm

Ozair wrote:
If we take that US$20 billion and divide by the 88 aircraft then Canada pays an extra US$220 million for each jet in dev costs… They could of course do it on the cheap and buy an existing radar, engine, EW suite etc but that just translates to Canada system integrating, and taking all the associated risk that brings, while providing little benefit to Canadian Industry.

(Hypothetic discussion here obviously) If we are to spend that kind of money for an indigenous fighter program with little hope for exports, may as well look for another type of aircraft that we can actually profitably export.

Let's make a RFP for a Maritime Patrol Aircraft, a Military transport, and why not, a refueller, all of which would be (curiously :mrgreen: ) exactly tailored to the specs of a CS500. (And with the exact same dimensions as we want them to fit in some specific hangars) :twisted:

Obviously, get the government to pay 100% of the R&D and the certification process. :stirthepot:
 
cumulushumilis
Posts: 154
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:58 am

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I wouldn’t be stunned if they just get out of the business.

:rotfl:

That would result in quite a lot of savings; so let's cut defense spending! (As some of our European NATO allies are already doing).



We just did the opposite and bought back into the NATO AWACS program that the Conservatives withdrew us from in 2011.
 
Ozair
Posts: 2154
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:27 pm

So it appears that Boeing has decided to join the competition to replace the CF-18.

Boeing stays in race to supply Canada with fighter jets: sources

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Boeing Co, locked in a trade dispute with the Canadian government, has applied to stay in the race to supply Canada with 88 new fighter jets, three well-placed sources said on Thursday.

Companies had until Feb. 9 to express an interest in taking part in a competition for planes worth between C$15 billion ($12.1 billion) and C$19 billion. Ottawa will release its specifications next year, at which point firms can bid.

Boeing did let Canada know it was interested, said the sources, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. The decision does not mean the firm will necessarily put forward its F-18 Super Hornet.

Boeing did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cana ... SKCN1FZ2M9

Not sure what else Boeing would offer other tha the F-18, I don't see how the F-15 would be selected by Canada.

Noting the article mentioning the anonymity of the source, it is worth posting this news report on how the Liberals continue to undertake unprecedented steps to ensure there is little clarity to this competition.

Don't talk to journalists, Canadian government warns companies interested in fighter jet contract

Companies interested in the Liberal government’s planned purchase of new fighter jets have been told not to talk to journalists despite claims by federal officials the process will be open and transparent.

Those company representatives taking part in the Jan. 22 industry day in Ottawa, which outlined initial details about the proposed $19 billion acquisition, were required to sign a form agreeing not to share information with the media, according to documents obtained by Postmedia.

“Your registration to this event acknowledges your agreement to not share information or materials obtained at the event with the media, and certifies that you are not a member of the media,” the form noted.

The Liberal government’s quest to buy new fighter jets has been controversial, with mixed signals and bungled deals.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said earlier his government would not buy the F-35 stealth fighter, claiming it didn’t work. His government later reversed course, adding that F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin was welcome to offer their plane to Canada in any competition.

In 2016, the Liberals launched a plan to buy new Super Hornet jets from Boeing as an interim measure, only to scuttle that deal a year later because of a trade war involving the U.S. firm.

Instead, the government says it will now buy used F-18 jets from Australia.

The gag order on the industry day event was forwarded to Postmedia by company representatives concerned about the excessive government secrecy on a program that will cost taxpayers $19 billion.

Public Services and Procurement Canada did not comment on the issue.

But it is not the first attempt by the Liberals to crack down on what information might make its way to the public or news media about the multi-billion program.

In November 2016 it was revealed the Liberal government brought in an unprecedented gag order that prevents 235 Canadian military personnel and federal workers from ever talking about the program.

The non-disclosure agreement for the equipment project puts the fighter jet replacement on the same level as top secret counter-terrorism missions undertaken by the Joint Task Force 2 commando unit as well as clandestine operations by the country’s spies, military sources say.

The permanent non-disclosure agreements were uncovered by Conservative defence critic James Bezan after he requested information through the House of Commons “inquiry of ministry” process.

The information provided to Bezan noted that 121 individuals at the Department of National Defence were required to sign the non-disclosure agreement, 39 at Public Services and Procurement Canada; and 18 at Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada. The rest of the 235 were employed by the Department of Finance, Treasury Board, Department of Justice and Privy Council Office.

Five other individuals working on the fighter jet replacement project who are under contract to DND were also required to sign the non-disclosure agreement or NDA.

“The NDA is a life-time agreement,” the response to Bezan noted. Persons signing the NDA are considered “persons permanently bound to secrecy” on the future fighter jet capability project, it added.

Defence industry executives and retired public servants say they have never seen such secrecy surrounding an equipment program.

The DND claimed that such agreements have been used with procurement staff before on occasion.

But Alan Williams, the former assistant deputy minister for materiel at the DND, has said that he had never heard of such agreements. Over the years Williams oversaw hundreds of equipment projects at both DND and Public Works, worth billions of dollars.

The fighter jet industry day involved some 200 participants from 108 companies. Some of those who attended questioned why government officials at the meeting could only provide basic details about the fighter jet program. Industry representatives noted that the purchase, which would see a contract awarded in 2021 or 2022, seems drawn out, considering federal procurement officials have been involved in trying to buy a new jet since 2010.

http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/d ... t-contract

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