jalarner
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Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:53 pm

I figure this discussion can get its own thread now that it is official and not just about cancelling the F-18 E/F from Boeing.

Canadian Forces Info (basic)
http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/business-def ... ms-10.page

Public Works (Purchasing) Release Info
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-da ... -002-26574

Toronto Star (news)
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/201 ... -jets.html

I'm sure there are and will be more detailed news and industry articles about the whole process, so lets discuss it here!

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Andre3K
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:16 am

Considering their greedy asses are building F-35 parts they better be buying them.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:19 am

Andre3K wrote:
Considering their greedy asses are building F-35 parts they better be buying them.

Well if they don't acquire F-35 then they will lose the future F-35 industrial work. When the contracts come up for re-bid Canada would be excluded from bidding on the work.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:46 pm

Some recent news articles on the Canadian fighter acquisition process.

The Trudeau government has finally and officially announced its "interim" solution to replace the air force's CF-18 fighter jets. It will go to Happy Harry's Used Fighter Jets Lot in Australia to buy some more aging F-18s. Liberal penury — as far as defence is concerned — strikes again.
As with much of this Liberal government, the decision is so anticlimactic, so pathetically inadequate that it has produced not a military bang but a bureaucratic whimper.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/defence- ... -1.4446941

Everything about this whole sorry mess reeks of politics, deceit and cowboy economics — or in other words, procurement as usual. The “capability gap” suffers from a pronounced credibility gap: virtually no independent expert agrees it exists, defined as it is by a standard of military readiness — the ability to meet both our NORAD and our NATO commitments, simultaneously, in full — that has never been asked of us and is unlikely ever to be.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew- ... -economics
 
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zeke
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:06 pm

I see Canada has purchased 18 Australian F/A-18 A/B plus spares to be delivered next year.
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Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:18 pm

zeke wrote:
I see Canada has purchased 18 Australian F/A-18 A/B plus spares to be delivered next year.

Plenty of discussion on that in the previous topic. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1363545&start=200
 
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kanban
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:23 am

Andre3K wrote:
Considering their greedy asses are building F-35 parts they better be buying them.

Look the manufacturing role was only bait fish to get them to consider the F-35. Canada has many other projects to replace the manufacturing with things they need.. Assuming they are being paid on parts delivery, there should be no problem other than Lockheed finding another supplier.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:41 am

Canada needs to invest in its own Military aircraft industry.

The refurbished F18's coming from New Zealand (??) should hold the fort for now. Use the time to develop a competitive local design and take it to market.
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moo
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:52 am

BawliBooch wrote:
The refurbished F18's coming from New Zealand (??)


Australia. As many people have already said.

NZ hasn't had an airforce in several years, and it has never operated the F-18 of any type - the last comparable fighter it operated was a Skyhawk.
 
johns624
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:56 am

Canada just keeps kicking the can down the road, both with the fighters and the navy frigates.
 
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cpd
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:06 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Canada needs to invest in its own Military aircraft industry.

The refurbished F18's coming from New Zealand (??) should hold the fort for now. Use the time to develop a competitive local design and take it to market.


Unless of course another government comes into power and decides that they should buy American again and scraps any potential locally designed aircraft.

You'd guess it would be a possibility, along with plenty of political point-scoring.

I also agree that Canada should invest in its own industry, so should Australia as well - we should be getting into that kind of industry.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:26 am

kanban wrote:
Look the manufacturing role was only bait fish to get them to consider the F-35.

Actually nothing to do with bait fish and everything to do with continuing the long run Canadian Industry has with manufacturing high quality parts for Aerospace.

As for their participation in the JSF program, Canada agreed to the requirements of the program, noting that the Government who agreed to participate was a Liberal one, the same party that is in power today…
As for Industrial work, Canada has now secured over US$1 billion dollars of work on the program from an approx $430 million program fees. That is with approximately 15% of the F-35 fleet manufactured. The Canadian Government has estimated that the total sum of contracts for the JSF program will probably exceed US$10 billion. Given the Canadian Government will likely not spend that much on the F-35 acquisition if selected in the future open competition the decision to join the program is a clear win for Canadian Industry.

kanban wrote:
Canada has many other projects to replace the manufacturing with things they need.. Assuming they are being paid on parts delivery, there should be no problem other than Lockheed finding another supplier.

There is no problem with LM finding other suppliers. The problem is the Liberal Government does not want to say no to the industrial benefits of the F-35 program. Hence they continue to pay the yearly sums required to maintain participation in the Industrial side. As already explained, this will dry up if Canada orders a different aircraft as the other partner nations have a vested interest in allowing their companies to win future F-35 work.

BawliBooch wrote:
Canada needs to invest in its own Military aircraft industry.

The refurbished F18's coming from New Zealand (??) should hold the fort for now. Use the time to develop a competitive local design and take it to market.

There is zero chance of Canada developing a local design. While they probably have the industrial expertise to do so, the development costs involved would be significant, the production cost enormous because the production number would be less than a hundred, and the commonality with allied partners likely reduced.

The decision to not produce a local airframe was already denied over 5 years ago,

The Harper government is publicly rejecting a pitch from a former senior soldier to adopt the legendary Avro Arrow as Canada's next war plane, saying that, emotional attachment notwithstanding, the design of the much-loved fighter would prove too expensive and time-consuming to upgrade.
The Prime Minister's Office was prompted to respond after retired major-general Lewis MacKenzie unveiled a proposal he'd been quietly shopping around Ottawa to revive the made-in-Canada Avro interceptor, a plane that was scrapped half a century ago despite capturing the imagination of the nation.
"While we appreciate the sentimental value of the Avro Arrow, which was cancelled 53 years ago, analysts looked at the proposal and determined that this is not a realistic option," Andrew MacDougall, director of communications for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said Monday.
"The proposal to develop, test and manufacture what would effectively be a brand-new aircraft is risky and would take too long and cost too much to meet Canada's needs."
Separately, Julian Fantino, the former associate minister of defence, wrote Mr. MacKenzie a letter this summer shooting down the Avro on the grounds that required add-ons would jack up its price.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/po ... le4535481/

It makes far more economical sense for the Canadian Military to acquire an already in production jet that has interoperability with partners and can fulfil their mission requirements. If we look at the candidates for the competition, if it does start in 2019 with a decision by 2021, then the potential options are F-35, Rafale, Eurofighter, SH and Gripen.

Of those choices the F-35 is the standout on price, capability, interoperability, survivability and industrial participation.
 
CX747
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:50 am

The Super Hornet buy as an interim replacement made the most sense. BBD issues aside, the country as a whole is now buying aged F/A-18A/Bs at the end of their life to replace F/A-18s at the.....end of their life. MAYBE less wear and tear (100,000 miles compared to 110,000 miles) but in the end the same vintage aircraft. Unfortunately, the government cut off its nose to spite its face.

The F-35 is the only full next generation game in town. IF you don't want that then.....buy Super Hornets, modernized F-15Es or the new F-16V. At least ONE of those solutions is not Boeing made and I thought that's where the issue was?!?! The F/A-18A purchase puts Canada at a distinct disadvantage. Old technology that is on the way OUT the door elsewhere. Embarrassing to say the least.
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Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:07 am

CX747 wrote:
The Super Hornet buy as an interim replacement made the most sense. BBD issues aside, the country as a whole is now buying aged F/A-18A/Bs at the end of their life to replace F/A-18s at the.....end of their life. MAYBE less wear and tear (100,000 miles compared to 110,000 miles) but in the end the same vintage aircraft. Unfortunately, the government cut off its nose to spite its face.

Actually I think the short term buy of classic Hornets is a much better idea. At approx US$400 million it is a bargain compared to the nearly US$6 billion Boeing was asking for the same number of SH. This way Canada takes a single fleet of classic Hornets forward and replaces the whole fleet with one single jet in the 2023-2027 timeframe.


CX747 wrote:
The F/A-18A purchase puts Canada at a distinct disadvantage. Old technology that is on the way OUT the door elsewhere. Embarrassing to say the least.

The plan is just to squeeze a few more years out of the classic hornets. Given the USMC will operate classic Hornets until 2030 there are enough other players flying classics beyond Canada to mean this plan is at least sensible and fiscally makes far more sense.
 
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keesje
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:26 pm

The Canadians will be sitting on a lot of frames, engines, spares, simulators. Review the total inventory and make a 10 year plan, including upgrades where they make sense / are required. Not a bad plan. Maybe discuss with the US Marine Corps who have a track record of getting the best out of aging designs.
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ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:46 pm

keesje wrote:
Maybe discuss with the US Marine Corps who have a track record of getting the best out of aging designs.

It's already happening, and has been for many years. L3 MAS in Mirabel has extensive expertise/capabilities in legacy Hornets - ours having about the most flying hours. (Canada also owns its legacy Hornets software codes).

Lots of constructive information is shared between Hornets operators.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:22 pm

Ozair wrote:
Actually I think the short term buy of classic Hornets is a much better idea. At approx US$400 million it is a bargain compared to the nearly US$6 billion Boeing was asking for the same number of SH. This way Canada takes a single fleet of classic Hornets forward and replaces the whole fleet with one single jet in the 2023-2027 timeframe.
The plan is just to squeeze a few more years out of the classic hornets. Given the USMC will operate classic Hornets until 2030 there are enough other players flying classics beyond Canada to mean this plan is at least sensible and fiscally makes far more sense.


Agree with above 100%

Furthermore, as we'll probably buy the F35, most bugs should have been fixed by then, combined with a lower unit cost. A real win - win here (plus a Boeing loss... :biggrin: ).
 
Oroka
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:13 am

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Furthermore, as we'll probably buy the F35, most bugs should have been fixed by then, combined with a lower unit cost. A real win - win here (plus a Boeing loss... :biggrin: ).


Still a waste of money. Liberals say we cant afford the F-35 but we can afford to buy disposable F/A-18s? How many F-35 can we get for the $388M that will be spent on what is essentially an attempt to save face with an election promise? Hard to say, atleast 3, but the RCAF would get WAY more airframe hours from those 3 F-35 than 18 not quite worn out F/A-18.

As for bugs... remember when we bought Hornets that had aerodynamic problems that were causing excess stress on the vert stabs and they had to add LEX fences and reinforcements to the vert stab roots to keep the stabs from prematurely ripping off? Yeah, making fighter jets are hard and bugs are normal.

Image

Image
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:34 pm

Oroka wrote:
Still a waste of money. Liberals say we cant afford the F-35 but we can afford to buy disposable F/A-18s? How many F-35 can we get for the $388M that will be spent on what is essentially an attempt to save face with an election promise? Hard to say, atleast 3, but the RCAF would get WAY more airframe hours from those 3 F-35 than 18 not quite worn out F/A-18.
Let's agree it's an immense saving compared to buying new "interim" Super Hornets + new "interim" crew/maintainer training + new additional "interim" logistical support...

I agree it's a waste of money compared to having taken a timely decision 5 -10 years ago (to procure a new fighter). But that's too late now.

$388M is providing some more years (what, 5 more?) of the current operational capacity. How does it compare to the total life cycle cost of the F35, on a yearly basis? Not sure it's such a waste.

Could we have stretched our CF18s (by flying strictly minimal NORAD/home defense duties and no NATO deployments) for a few more years, enough to allow an effective new fighter procurement? Not sure if that would be still possible now.

Oroka wrote:
As for bugs... remember when we bought Hornets that had aerodynamic problems that were causing excess stress on the vert stabs and they had to add LEX fences and reinforcements to the vert stab roots to keep the stabs from prematurely ripping off? Yeah, making fighter jets are hard and bugs are normal.
Wow, thanks for those fascinating images/valuable info.

That convinces me even more that there is nothing wrong with letting the F35 maturing / eliminate bugs a little longer... (Plus the unit cost savings along the production ramp up)
 
Oroka
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:09 am

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
$388M is providing some more years (what, 5 more?) of the current operational capacity. How does it compare to the total life cycle cost of the F35, on a yearly basis? Not sure it's such a waste.


F/A-18A/B without airframe life extension, 6000 hours, 8000 with life extension upgrades.
F-35A anticipated airframe hours, 26000 hours.

So assuming those Australian hornets have 20% life left (most likely not even close), that is 1600 hours per frame, times 18 airframes, that is 28800 hours... a single F-35A can do 26000. No, you cant use a single F-35 to replace 18 hornets... but it shows the value of the F-35. Its expected the F-35 will be in service until 2070... 52 more years!


ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Could we have stretched our CF18s (by flying strictly minimal NORAD/home defense duties and no NATO deployments) for a few more years, enough to allow an effective new fighter procurement? Not sure if that would be still possible now.


If the RCAF parks them now they can have infinite years. We have minimum obligations, and a minimum hours needed to train and keep pilots proficient. Problem is that the delay is just a Liberal pissing match. The Conservatives wanted the F-35, and the Liberals have a history of shafting our military for new hardware. The RCN is flying 55 year old SeaKings because the Liberals couldn't just go with what the Conservatives ordered in 1987 (EH-101)! 30 years later, they are still flying them! If the Liberals just swallowed their pride, admitted the Conservatives were right, and ordered the F-35, we would start receiving them before we could get the used Australian F/A-18s flying. Lockheed is about the ramp up production... they will start churning them out soon.


ExMilitaryEng wrote:
That convinces me even more that there is nothing wrong with letting the F35 maturing / eliminate bugs a little longer... (Plus the unit cost savings along the production ramp up)


Never has the media or public had such intimate knowledge about a new fighter program. Never has there been such a complicated fighter. They asked for ALOT from the F-35, that adds alot of complexity, and complexity creates potential for bugs. Alot of these issues are software based now, but with that, in the future, you can add features to the F-35 with just a software update. Everyone is an expert if you ask around.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:12 pm

Oroka wrote:
F/A-18A/B without airframe life extension, 6000 hours, 8000 with life extension upgrades.
F-35A anticipated airframe hours, 26000 hours.
Somehow, I never realised the F35 airframes could last so many hours before structure overhaul. The land based version must incorporate some characteristics of the sturdier carrier version.

Oroka wrote:
If the RCAF parks them now they can have infinite years. We have minimum obligations, and a minimum hours needed to train and keep pilots proficient.
Can we really just cease NORAD/Homeland defense flying? (I guess Alaska/Washington/New England/Thule based USAF squadrons can cover the northern gap for a while... :stirthepot: )

Oroka wrote:
Problem is that the delay is just a Liberal pissing match. The Conservatives wanted the F-35, and the Liberals have a history of shafting our military for new hardware. The RCN is flying 55 year old SeaKings because the Liberals couldn't just go with what the Conservatives ordered in 1987 (EH-101)! 30 years later, they are still flying them! If the Liberals just swallowed their pride, admitted the Conservatives were right, and ordered the F-35, we would start receiving them before we could get the used Australian F/A-18s flying. Lockheed is about the ramp up production... they will start churning them out soon.
I agree 100% with you. Our defense procurement process has suffered tremendously from this political interference.

Thanks to Boeing's CSeries complaint, at least we escaped that stupid "interim" Super Hornet procurement...
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:38 pm

Oroka wrote:
So assuming those Australian hornets have 20% life left (most likely not even close), that is 1600 hours per frame, times 18 airframes, that is 28800 hours.

My understanding was that Australian Hornets were not really hours limited but were rather more corroded than ours.

Not really sure how the good salvageable parts complements each other here (if ever), but I know that L3 MAS Mirabel performs Hornet repair/patch up miracles regularly. I also know the RCAF & L3 MAS were examining closely each Australian Hornets to ensure an optimal fit - for most life extension at minimal costs.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:50 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Oroka wrote:
F/A-18A/B without airframe life extension, 6000 hours, 8000 with life extension upgrades.
F-35A anticipated airframe hours, 26000 hours.
Somehow, I never realised the F35 airframes could last so many hours before structure overhaul. The land based version must incorporate some characteristics of the sturdier carrier version.

We probably need to put these figures into context. All three F-35 versions have been fatigue tested to 24k hours, three times the expected 8k hour life. No one expects the F-35 to fly 24k hours but the fatigue testing opens up additional life extensions at a cheaper cost.

If we look at the F-15C the fleet is pushing 10k hours and will likely be certified, with some part replacement and additional cost, for 15k hours but to get them out to 2040 will require upwards of 40 million each. The F-16 is similar but cheaper to SLEP to get to 12k hours and why the USAF is currently favouring that option. The F-35 shouldn't have those large costs, at least from a fatigue perspective, and should easily be able to push past 12 to 15k flight hours with little work required.

I'm still convinced the RAAF classic Hornet buy was the best option. The RCAF Hornets could have soldiered on but this buys political and airframe time so Canada can go through the process. I fully expect the F-35 to win the upcoming competition with Trudeau, if he is around after the next election, lauding the money he saved the Canadian taxpayer for delaying the purchase.
 
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sat Jan 20, 2018 7:14 am

Oroka wrote:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lockheed-f-35-service-life-extended-to-2070-423536/

Oroka, that chart represents the total flight hours per variant when the F-35 reached 50,000 flight hours, not the expected service life hours of the three variants. Not sure why Flightglobal put that chart there as it has little overall relevance to the article.

From LM,

Flight hours are divided into two main categories: Operational flying hours, flown by 155 jets delivered to six different nations, and System Development and Demonstration (SDD) flight test hours, flown by 18 aircraft assigned to the Integrated Test Forces at Edwards AFB, and NAS Pax River. Of the 50,000 hours, operational jets flew approximately 37,950 hours while SDD aircraft flew 12,050 hours. More than one third of the program's flight hours were flown in 2015 alone. Among the three variants, approximately 26,000 hours were flown by the F-35A, 18,000 hours by the F-35B and 6,000 by the F-35C.

https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2016-02-10-F-35-Lightning-II-World-Wide-Fleet-Exceeds-50-000-Flying-Hours
 
angad84
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:10 am

What's the highest time F-35 airframe (any variant)?
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:06 pm

angad84 wrote:
What's the highest time F-35 airframe (any variant)?

What do you mean by highest time, most hours any specific airframe has flown or the total expected life?

If you want most hours my guess would be an A model, there has to be some jets at Luke AFB that have been flown extensively. For total expected life all three variants are rated for 8k flight hours.
 
angad84
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:45 pm

Yeah, what's the highest hours on a single airframe. Sorry for the sloppy wording.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:16 pm

angad84 wrote:
Yeah, what's the highest hours on a single airframe. Sorry for the sloppy wording.

No worries. Unfortunately I am not aware of any published figures for individual F-35 flight hours so am guessing about my thoughts on the A having a frame with the most hours.
 
Oroka
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:03 am

lol derp, yeah that article is about as clear as mud. After reading around I could only find 1 place that gave a number for the F-35A, and that was 8000 hours. Several articles have stated that the airframe hours has been extended adding 6 years to the fleets expected life.

From what I have been reading, the RAAF hornets never went though a airframe life extension and are still on their original 6000 hours.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:18 am

Oroka wrote:
lol derp, yeah that article is about as clear as mud. After reading around I could only find 1 place that gave a number for the F-35A, and that was 8000 hours.

Yes 8000 hour is the expected figure for all three variants. This slide from 2012 shows the purpose of the fatigue testing,

Image

Oroka wrote:
Several articles have stated that the airframe hours has been extended adding 6 years to the fleets expected life.

Yes the total fleet was extended out by that 6 year timeframe, while the acquisition by the USAF was slowed from 80 to 60 a year, resulting in production being extended another 3-4 years. Hence the obvious increase in total sustainment costs if you fly the fleet longer and extend the life of the production line.

Oroka wrote:
From what I have been reading, the RAAF hornets never went though a airframe life extension and are still on their original 6000 hours.

I'm not aware of any RAAF jets that have flown over 6k hours. The most hours I believe are on the F/A-18Bs which have seen heavy time with all the conversion courses. The RAAF did some centre barrel upgrades but not as many as originally planned.

Some good info on Hornet sustainment can be found here, https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-18-service-life.htm

While some of the info is outdated we know the USMC is pushing 10k hours on some of their Hornet fleet so it is more than possible to extend the classic Hornet out that far, it just comes at a cost. The other issue is systems viability past a certain date and the above global security article talks about issues with the mission computer amongst others.

Finally, to prove 10k hours on a classic Hornet is possible, there is a news report of a USMC Hornet passing 9k hours in 2012.

The aircraft maintain­ers of Marine Fighter At­tack Squadron 115 wait patiently on the flightline for the return of the cul­mination of all of their ef­fort.

Silver Eagle 206, a grey sky colored F/A-18 is completing its 9,000th hour of flight in the skies above the Lowcountry be­fore landing back aboard Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort, Nov. 13.

“Many of these air­craft rolled off the line in 1985,” said Lt. Col. Mat­thew Phares, command­ing officer of Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 115. “Many of the main­tainers that work on them were not even born yet.

“They are still flying and are more lethal than the day they rolled off the line with advanced munitions and systems,” continued Phares, a na­tive of Cirlceville, W.Va. “The aircraft is still going strong and we expect it to see 10,000 hours.”

For every one hour that Silver Eagles 206 flew, 10 hours of meticulous main­tenance was performed. This includes numerous upgrades and overhauls to ensure the aircraft was capable of flying to inter­cept and destroy enemy aircraft and attack and destroy surface targets.

http://www.beaufort.marines.mil/News/Ne ... 000-hours/
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:10 pm

Boeing still evaluating whether to bid for Canadian fighter contract

Boeing has yet to decide whether to compete for a contract worth $12-14.5 billion to replace Canada’s tactical fighter fleet. The airframer once had the deal in its pocket before Ottawa terminated plans to buy the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet after Boeing filed a trade complaint against Bombardier last May.

In a possible sign that the company could forego submitting a bid, Boeing chose to skip a one-day information session for potential bidders on 22 January that was hosted by Canadian agency managing the Future Fighter Capability acquisition programme.

Boeing confirmed the absence and says it remains convinced that the Super Hornet is the best option for the Royal Canadian Air Force, although the airframer has not decided whether to offer the aircraft yet.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... an-445135/

The article goes on the say that Boeing must decide before February 9th whether they will bid as after that date only confirmed bidders will be allowed to continue with the process. It will cost Boeing some money but would seem silly not to, even with the current frosty relations to the Canadian Government, as you never know what could happen one or two years from now, to change the competition again. The next Canadian Federal election is due by end of October 2019 and this competition will continue on past that date.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Jan 25, 2018 10:24 pm

Government outlines future fighter procurement process

Approximately 200 representatives from 180 companies–Canadian and international–and foreign governments gathered in Ottawa on Jan. 22 to hear the government’s roadmap for replacing the Royal Canadian Air Force’s fleet of CF-188 Hornets.


The industry day was the first engagement with defence and aerospace companies since the Liberal government officially launched the Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) in December, and included briefings on the scope, general requirements, sustainability approach and industrial and technological benefits objectives of the $15 to $19 billion program.

According to PowerPoint slides presented at the event, the government remains committed to acquiring 88 advanced fighter aircraft, initial weapons and stores, supporting infrastructure, and thorough life sustainment, which will include initial spares, software and mission data support, mission planning and debriefing capability, materiel management, technical data and associated intellectual property rights, and training for both pilots and maintainers.

The overall acquisition budget and the length of and costs of the initial sustainment services contracts will be determined through engagement with suppliers, officials said. But the full lifecycle cost of the aircraft will be a key factor in the evaluation.

The briefing also provided an assessment of the global threat picture in which the new jet is expected to operate. Defence officials described an operational environment that will be more lethal and complex, complicated by an evolving cyber threat and contested control of the electro-magnetic spectrum. Adversaries are expected to deliver more advanced fighters and anti-access area denial (A2AD) surface-to-air missile systems, as well as other increasingly technologically advanced equipment.

“Our missions and roles and commitments have not changed,” one slide deck noted, emphasizing the importance of continuing to fulfil current NORAD and NATO requirements.

Among the critical criteria for the next jet will be seamless interoperability with key allies; the ability to upgrade to maintain an operational advantage over current and future threats; the range, endurance and speeds required in NORAD and NATO mission configurations; the ability to gather intelligence, detect, track, identify, assess in permissive and contested environments; and the survivability and lethality to be effective in those environments.

In particular, the RCAF emphasized interoperability and information processing, exploitation and dissemination with 5 Eyes and 2 Eyes allies. Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States and New Zealand comprise the first group, while Canada and the U.S. make up the second.

While that might seem to exclude non-U.S. aircraft from the competition, the requirement is common to many military procurements. Maj Gen Alain Pelletier, chief of fighter capability for the RCAF, said the government had been working with European and North American original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for the past nine months to answer questions and refine the “path” for potential suppliers.

“They are going to be able to meet the requirements from a 5 Eyes/2 Eyes [interoperability] perspective,” he said.

The briefing also highlighted the need for a “growth path” to 2060 and beyond. That might have favoured the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II when the previous Conservative government committed to the Joint Strike Fighter, but other manufacturers have invested significantly in major modernization proposals in recent years that will see their jets operating well beyond the 2040s.

https://www.skiesmag.com/news/governmen ... e-fighter/
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 29, 2018 4:07 am

Apparently, Canada plans to keep flying its legacy Hornet until 2032; 15 more years! (From the TVA news outlets, which found the info in the bidding paperwork)
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:03 am

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Apparently, Canada plans to keep flying its legacy Hornet until 2032; 15 more years! (From the TVA news outlets, which found the info in the bidding paperwork)

Crazy although not unexpected. Perhaps there might be a few more RAAF Hornets flying to Canada in 2022 once the RAAF retire them...
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:52 pm

Thanks To Some Questionable Planning, Canada Will Fly the Same F-18 Jets for 50 Years

Canada plans to keep flying its fleet of F/A-18A Hornet fighters into the early 2030s, by which time the oldest of these planes will be more than a half-century old by retirement, which would make them some of the oldest fighters in the industrialized world. Known as CF-18s in Canadian service, the jets were delivered in the early 1980s and are Ottawa’s only fighter jets.

According to the National Post, Canada will select a new fighter in 2022 to enter service in 2032. The current government in Ottawa is dead-set against buying the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, but because of their own decision to kick the can down the road, they may be forced to choose it. Although aircraft such as the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-15 Eagle may still be production, by the early 2020s the only fighter truly “future proofed” will be the F-35.

Canada purchased 138 Hornets in the early 1980s to patrol the country’s vast airspace and fulfill NATO obligations. Although the planes never saw combat against the Soviet Union, they have participated in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, combat operations in the Balkans in the 1990s, the 2011 Libya intervention, and the war against the Islamic State. It’s safe to say that Canada got its money’s worth from the fighter jets.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... -50-years/
 
meecrob
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:36 am

Nitpick against Popular Mechanics, its the CF-188 in Canada. We have to change the designations for some reason. Nobody calls it that here though. Hell nobody calls them CF-18's, they are F-18's or Hornets...or pointy nosed jet.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:34 pm

If $388M is sufficient to extend legacy Hornets flying until 2032, that seems now to be a bargain... Combine that with eventually procuring fully mature F35, which unit's cost keeps decreasing as production ramps up... What I'm I missing here?
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:19 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
If $388M is sufficient to extend legacy Hornets flying until 2032, that seems now to be a bargain... Combine that with eventually procuring fully mature F35, which unit's cost keeps decreasing as production ramps up... What I'm I missing here?

I see a number of conflicting timeframes coming out now for the CF-18 replacement. The article below insinuates that ex RAAF Hornets will be flying with the RCAF and not just used for spares.

Australian F-18 fighter jets destined for 4 Wing Cold Lake to supplement Canada’s aging CF-18 fighter fleet will require upgrades to their ejection seats and external aircraft lighting before they can take to the skies with the Royal Canadian Air Force.
Additionally the 18 Hornets, which first entered service in Australia in the late 1980s, will undergo “preventive aircraft structure modifications to address known fatigue issues” similar to a program that was implemented to remedy similar issues with the CF-18s.
About $150 million is spent each year on maintenance of the CF-18s, which are due to be phased out starting in the second half of 2020.
Canada’s CF-18 numbers have dropped by more than half to 76 aircraft from a peak of 138 but the Liberal government in June last year announced plans to buy 88 new fighter aircraft in a project that could cost as much as $19 billion.
The Australian jets are required as a stop-gap measure because of the timing between receiving the new planes and retirement of the older planes.
The CF-18s have most recently been used as part of Operation Reassurance in eastern Europe. They were also deployed as part of the Middle East Stabilization Force in Iraq and Syria where they conducted 1,378 sorties and were involved in 251 airstrikes on ISIL targets.
“Individual aircraft will be retired when either their safe structural life has expired or they are no longer required given the delivery of the permanent fleet,” said Department of National Defence spokesperson Jessica Lamirande.
“It is anticipated that the supplemental aircraft will be in service for several years, sufficient to ensure the capability gap is filled until the transition to the permanent CF-18 replacement that commences in the second half of the 2020s is complete.”
Lamirande said Canada invested in the development of additional structural modifications which, after being applied to Canadian aircraft, could also be applied to Australian aircraft that would further extend their service.
Postmedia has previously reported that the CF-18s had been scheduled to be removed from service around 2025 but that timeline has been extended to 2032.
As negotiation between Australian and Canadian governments are ongoing, exact details of the deal and how much it will cost to modify the Hornets have yet to be finalized, she said.
Defence officials are still reviewing infrastructure and personnel requirements required to accommodate additional aircraft to Canada’s busiest fighter base in northern Alberta, Lamirande said.

I am still confused by the timings being quoted by media. We have suggestions of the CF-18 fleet being replaced by 2032 instead of 2025 which seems at the extreme end of the replacement timeframe.
The current procurement timeframe for the new aircraft is a 2019 start and 2021 end to the competition with deliveries starting in the mid 2020s.

The Canadian Defence website is for the acquisition is pretty light on details…
http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/business-equ ... ility.page

The RAAF will induct 72 aircraft over essentially a 4 year period, from 2018-2022, which translates to a squadron a year. If the RCAF is looking at 88 aircraft then a seven year timeframe from 2025 to 2032 seems slow. Perhaps the difference is that the RCAF is factoring in the potential to select an aircraft that doesn’t have the production output of the F-35 and will therefore take that long to deliver?
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:36 pm

Some info on the expected timeline for the Canadian acquisition.

Here is how Canada's new fighter jet purchase will unfold

Here are some more details on the timing/milestones of the Canadian government’s purchase of 88 new fighter jets. This information comes from the federal government:

A draft request for proposals (RFP) is expected by this fall. Suppliers will have up to two months to submit comments and the RFP will be finalized by early 2019. It will be issued in the spring of 2019.

Suppliers will be given around six months to work on their proposals, with submissions by early 2020.

There will be discussions with suppliers about their proposals and revised proposals could be submitted by the fall of 2020.

A winning bidder is expected to be selected in spring 2021. A contract would be signed in late 2021 or early 2022.

The first aircraft would be delivered sometime in 2025.

The first squadron will reach initial operating capability in 2026. Full operational capability – which will include four operational squadrons, plus training – will be reached in 2031.

The last CF-18 will be retired in 2032.

Initial cadre training by the host nation will begin in 2024/2025 time period. Transition training will take place between 2025 and 2031.

http://ottawacitizen.com/g00/news/natio ... ill-unfold
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:08 pm

So the big question is, which fighters will be in production then?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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impromark
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:18 pm

meecrob wrote:
Nitpick against Popular Mechanics, its the CF-188 in Canada. We have to change the designations for some reason. Nobody calls it that here though. Hell nobody calls them CF-18's, they are F-18's or Hornets...or pointy nosed jet.

We changed it because it's technically a sub-variant that merited its own designation, though the changes are barely more than cosmetic for the most part (ooh, we have a fake canopy painted on the bottom and a big flashlight on the nose). The numbers were chosen to match the designations of other fighters we had at the time (CF-111 / F-104 Starfighter, CF-115 / F-5 Freedom Fighter, etc.). Moreover, while everyone calls it the Hornet, that's not it official designation, as the French had a military chopper called Frelon and we couldn't call it that in either language as such. As if anyone would really confuse the two...

Mark
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:25 pm

Dutchy wrote:
So the big question is, which fighters will be in production then?

Well from the list of potential candidates approached by Canada,

F-35 – Confirmed and there will be ~1300 F-35s flying by 2025.
Rafale- Confirmed (The French recently announced plans for additional aircraft out to 2025).
Super Hornet – Unlikely. With only Kuwait to go for export and likely limited USN purchases going forward its days are numbered.
Eurofighter – Probably. It will at least be in production until 2022 when the Canadians plan to sign a contract so if selected it would be able to continue production and fulfil a Canadian order.
Gripen E – Unlikely candidate but will be in production in that timeframe.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:32 pm

Ozair wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
which fighters will be in production then?
...there will be 1300 F-35s flying by 2025.

Great!

With lowered unit costs (decreasing as production ramps up), small bugs corrected and combined with the increased capabilities of the later batches;

Those Australian interim legacy Hornets might fully worth their costs after all, and then some... :stirthepot:
Last edited by ExMilitaryEng on Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:52 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Great!

With lowered unit costs (decreasing as production ramps up), small bugs corrected and combined with the increased capability of the later batches;

Correct, almost all Blk 4 upgrades are expected by 2025 and likely some initial Blk 5 work may begin around that date. 2025 could also see a new engine which would significantly extend range and thrust performance above the already identified 10% increases coming by 2021.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:45 am

keesje wrote:
The Canadians will be sitting on a lot of frames, engines, spares, simulators. Review the total inventory and make a 10 year plan, including upgrades where they make sense / are required. Not a bad plan. Maybe discuss with the US Marine Corps who have a track record of getting the best out of aging designs.


That is very much required, but that will be a holding operation.

In the long term, Canada needs to develop its own platform. It will not just serve our defense needs into the future, but also provide a critical boost for the domestic aerospace program.

Out of curiosity: How much will it really cost the Canadian Taxpayer to design and put in production a light weight, 4.5G multi-role fighter like what the South Koreans did with KF-X?
Mr.Kapoor's favorite poodle! on twitter @Banwaarilal
 
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YuriMG2
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:14 am

BawliBooch wrote:
keesje wrote:
The Canadians will be sitting on a lot of frames, engines, spares, simulators. Review the total inventory and make a 10 year plan, including upgrades where they make sense / are required. Not a bad plan. Maybe discuss with the US Marine Corps who have a track record of getting the best out of aging designs.


That is very much required, but that will be a holding operation.

In the long term, Canada needs to develop its own platform. It will not just serve our defense needs into the future, but also provide a critical boost for the domestic aerospace program.

Out of curiosity: How much will it really cost the Canadian Taxpayer to design and put in production a light weight, 4.5G multi-role fighter like what the South Koreans did with KF-X?


8 billion US dollars in 2015.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:02 am

BawliBooch wrote:
In the long term, Canada needs to develop its own platform. It will not just serve our defense needs into the future, but also provide a critical boost for the domestic aerospace program.

Canada don’t need to do that and clearly shouldn’t. Their requirement is for 88 aircraft which was only recently bumped up from 66. There is no way they can justify the funding to build a jet for a production run that small.

BawliBooch wrote:
Out of curiosity: How much will it really cost the Canadian Taxpayer to design and put in production a light weight, 4.5G multi-role fighter like what the South Koreans did with KF-X?

The Koreans haven’t built KF-X yet. As for how much it costs, the rough order of magnitude is about US$20 billion for development for a new fighter jet today. Eurofighter was upwards of US$25 billion, Rafale is close to that, F-35 was US$55 billion for three different 5th gen aircraft.

If we take that US$20 billion and divide by the 88 aircraft then Canada pays an extra US$220 million for each jet in dev costs… They could of course do it on the cheap and buy an existing radar, engine, EW suite etc but that just translates to Canada system integrating, and taking all the associated risk that brings, while providing little benefit to Canadian Industry.

Compare to the F-35 program, which has already returned over a billion dollars into the Canadian economy and will likely constitute more than US$9 billion in order volume for Canadian Industry. The message is you don’t need to be the builder an aircraft to benefit, Industry benefit can be done for much less cost with much reduced risk.

YuriMG2 wrote:
8 billion US dollars in 2015.

Given KF-X hasn’t been built yet and Indonesia is likely to withdraw their participation on the program we will see whether KF-X actually goes anywhere or remains on timeline. Even if it does get built, as with the F-2 for Japan, the cost to design, develop, test and productionise the capability far outweighs to financial burden of buying off the shelf.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:11 am

Ozair wrote:
If we take that US$20 billion and divide by the 88 aircraft then Canada pays an extra US$220 million for each jet in dev costs… They could of course do it on the cheap and buy an existing radar, engine, EW suite etc but that just translates to Canada system integrating, and taking all the associated risk that brings, while providing little benefit to Canadian Industry.


The figure I have heard quoted before is $10-14bn.

Even if we accept your figure of $20bn, Potential export orders for the indegenous design could reduce this unit cost?

Investment in R&D is an investment in our future.
Mr.Kapoor's favorite poodle! on twitter @Banwaarilal
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:34 am

BawliBooch wrote:

The figure I have heard quoted before is $10-14bn.

Even if we accept your figure of $20bn

Happy to use your US$14 billion figure. That still translates to US$160 million per jet in dev costs…

BawliBooch wrote:
Potential export orders for the indegenous design could reduce this unit cost?

Who would buy it? Canada has no great strategic alliances outside of the US and NATO who are all going F-35 or their own designs. No one else really has the landscape issue they do except Russia, who they clearly won’t partner with.

Additionally, light fighters aren’t selling and if you push the size into the medium range then you have the F-35 next door that will cost less than half of what Canada would need to charge to recover dev costs on a domestic fighter.

BawliBooch wrote:
Investment in R&D is an investment in our future.

So instead of spending that investment on technology that others have probably already developed and incrementally improve it, instead spend that US$14 billion directly into the Canadian economy in specific R&D areas that Canada can excel at and that are future focused. Canada already has a thriving aerospace industry. Canada would be better served pushing funds into robotics, additional medical technology etc.

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