YIMBY
Posts: 329
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:32 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:04 am

Ozair wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
So the big question is, which fighters will be in production then?

Well from the list of potential candidates approached by Canada,

F-35 – Confirmed and there will be ~1300 F-35s flying by 2025.
Rafale- Confirmed (The French recently announced plans for additional aircraft out to 2025).
Super Hornet – Unlikely. With only Kuwait to go for export and likely limited USN purchases going forward its days are numbered.
Eurofighter – Probably. It will at least be in production until 2022 when the Canadians plan to sign a contract so if selected it would be able to continue production and fulfil a Canadian order.
Gripen E – Unlikely candidate but will be in production in that timeframe.


Depends a lot of other countries' decision. Other than unpredictable ME countries purchasing unpredictable amount of unpredictable planes, in Europe at least Finland will buy a rather equal amount of rather similar planes probably just before Canada (Poland etc less likely and smaller amounts). Finnish conditions are rather similar to Canada (cold weather, road strips to be used as airfield) but military environment is very different. There is a small chance that Finland will make Eurofighter to survive until Canadian order and smaller chance for Super Hornet (if that is politically eligible for Canada anyway, but which is then).
 
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keesje
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Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:00 pm

I think over the last 3 months the chances for the Rafale have not been reduced. The partnerships between US (Trump), France (Macron), Canada (Trudeau) and Germany (Merkel) changed of time. The US decided to focus on their own needs / interest and that's their good right.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ozair
Posts: 2152
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:28 pm

YIMBY wrote:
Depends a lot of other countries' decision. Other than unpredictable ME countries purchasing unpredictable amount of unpredictable planes, in Europe at least Finland will buy a rather equal amount of rather similar planes probably just before Canada (Poland etc less likely and smaller amounts). Finnish conditions are rather similar to Canada (cold weather, road strips to be used as airfield) but military environment is very different. There is a small chance that Finland will make Eurofighter to survive until Canadian order and smaller chance for Super Hornet (if that is politically eligible for Canada anyway, but which is then).

It does depend. While Rafale will have domestic orders past 2022 the UK and Italian Eurofighter lines will be reliant on exports, which are already identified, as I don’t see any further orders coming from the partner nations.

There has been a change in the fortunes of the SH and a saving grace for Boeing as the US in their just released defence budget stated a plan to continue procuring SH, so that will continue into the early 2020s, ensuring that there is at least a production line available to order from. I haven’t seen any reports further to the earlier statement that Boeing hadn’t even bothered to turn up to the Industry brief and signaled their intent by the 9th of February. I haven’t found any news reports on this either.

Finland will probably end up making their decision either the year before or at about the same time as Canada so it will be interesting to see how they go.

keesje wrote:
I think over the last 3 months the chances for the Rafale have not been reduced. The partnerships between US (Trump), France (Macron), Canada (Trudeau) and Germany (Merkel) changed of time. The US decided to focus on their own needs / interest and that's their good right.

Given the Canadians will be making the final decision in 2022 I doubt Trump will be a factor. Despite your suggestion Canada is still close to the US politically and militarily and the demands of NORAD “trump” those of NATO, especially under Trudeau. While Rafale is certainly not excluded from the competition there are some obvious issues with selecting it, including integrating into the NORAD structure, weapons compatibility and the lack of industrial support or industry return. Plus it will not be either the most capable platform or the cheapest in 2022 when the decision is made.
 
bigjku
Posts: 1213
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:48 pm

I feel like equally as likely as any order getting placed is Canada simply not buying anything at all. They are trending more and more in that direction. I wouldn’t be stunned if they just get out of the business.
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:42 pm

bigjku wrote:
I wouldn’t be stunned if they just get out of the business.

:rotfl:

That would result in quite a lot of savings; so let's cut defense spending! (As some of our European NATO allies are already doing).
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 198
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:35 pm

Ozair wrote:
If we take that US$20 billion and divide by the 88 aircraft then Canada pays an extra US$220 million for each jet in dev costs… They could of course do it on the cheap and buy an existing radar, engine, EW suite etc but that just translates to Canada system integrating, and taking all the associated risk that brings, while providing little benefit to Canadian Industry.

(Hypothetic discussion here obviously) If we are to spend that kind of money for an indigenous fighter program with little hope for exports, may as well look for another type of aircraft that we can actually profitably export.

Let's make a RFP for a Maritime Patrol Aircraft, a Military transport, and why not, a refueller, all of which would be (curiously :mrgreen: ) exactly tailored to the specs of a CS500. (And with the exact same dimensions as we want them to fit in some specific hangars) :twisted:

Obviously, get the government to pay 100% of the R&D and the certification process. :stirthepot:
 
cumulushumilis
Posts: 154
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:49 pm

Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:58 am

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
bigjku wrote:
I wouldn’t be stunned if they just get out of the business.

:rotfl:

That would result in quite a lot of savings; so let's cut defense spending! (As some of our European NATO allies are already doing).



We just did the opposite and bought back into the NATO AWACS program that the Conservatives withdrew us from in 2011.

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