salttee
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Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:13 am

It looks like the Pac 4 patriots didn't do any better at shooting down a Houthi Scud than the original version did against Iraqi Scuds in Israel back in 1991.

The NYT story is pretty convincing in showing that the Scud got through the Patriot defense. The Saudis launched five Patriots, but the warhead came down beyond the Patriot site.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... .html?_r=0
 
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cjg225
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:09 pm

Missile Command doesn't quite play out in real life.
Restoring Penn State's transportation heritage...
 
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scbriml
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:17 pm

They manage to shoot down RAF Tornados ok though. :sarcastic:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
WIederling
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:24 pm

scbriml wrote:
They manage to shoot down RAF Tornados ok though. :sarcastic:


blue on blue is easy. unexpected death.
Murphy is an optimist
 
aviationaware
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:14 am

salttee wrote:
The Saudis launched five Patriots, but the warhead came down beyond the Patriot site.


Very expensive failure.
 
mmo
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:07 pm

One issue with the Scud missile is it has a tendency come apart in flight. The NYT times article hinted to that fact. The firing solution might have been accomplished shortly before being launched, but due to the disintegration of the missile in the terminal phase, the solution could not be maintained.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
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flyingturtle
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:18 pm

Doesn't the Scud do some strange course corrections, something which bungles up the Patriot's calculations? Or has this been corrected in the Patriot's software?


David
Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
 
salttee
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:12 pm

mmo wrote:
One issue with the Scud missile is it has a tendency come apart in flight. The NYT times article hinted to that fact. The firing solution might have been accomplished shortly before being launched, but due to the disintegration of the missile in the terminal phase, the solution could not be maintained.
The firing solution is continuously updated. It appears that all an adversary need to do to defeat the Patriot system is to mimic whatever the scud does, which doesn't seem to be hard to do.

This does not instill great confidence in THAAD, AEGIS or the ABM system.
 
GDB
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:26 pm

IIRC many of the 'Scuds' that Saddam launched in 1991 were crude lash-ups, done to increase the range/payload.
So unsurprising many came apart in flight, larger debris such as main fuel tanks tended to be struck by the Patriots.
But this was 1970's/80's technology in terms of those Patriots, which originally was mandated NOT to have an ABM capability, being originally designed to counter aircraft and possibly cruise missile type weapons.
 
WIederling
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Fri Dec 15, 2017 6:35 pm

mmo wrote:
One issue with the Scud missile is it has a tendency come apart in flight. The NYT times article hinted to that fact. The firing solution might have been accomplished shortly before being launched, but due to the disintegration of the missile in the terminal phase, the solution could not be maintained.


This type seems to detach the warhead on purpose and late. ( rocket body works as chaff?.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
salttee
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:02 am

In my soon to be announced poor man's rocket™ I will place a corner reflector in the tailfin assembly.
An option will be to to have this poor man's reflector™ trail along behind the rocket in the later stages of flight.
 
salttee
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:55 pm

Another US Navy ballistic missile intercept reportedly fails.
This time it was an SM-3 Block IIA fired from an Aegis Ashore test site in Hawaii.
https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-ne ... ii-report/
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:17 pm

salttee wrote:
mmo wrote:
One issue with the Scud missile is it has a tendency come apart in flight. The NYT times article hinted to that fact. The firing solution might have been accomplished shortly before being launched, but due to the disintegration of the missile in the terminal phase, the solution could not be maintained.
The firing solution is continuously updated. It appears that all an adversary need to do to defeat the Patriot system is to mimic whatever the scud does, which doesn't seem to be hard to do.

This does not instill great confidence in THAAD, AEGIS or the ABM system.


So what do you suggest? Stop investing in missile defense? Invest in further development and testing?
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
salttee
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:28 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:
So what do you suggest? Stop investing in missile defense? Invest in further development and testing?

It might be that missile defense is a money pit that offers no promise of ever delivering anything useful until directed energy is harnessed. I think a sober look at the problem is needed.

Can anybody here come up with a number on how much money has been poured down this money hole over the last 38 years, while leaving us defenseless against so pathetic an advasary as North Korea?
 
LMP737
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:28 pm

DfwRevolution wrote:

So what do you suggest? Stop investing in missile defense?


That would be a good start.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
WIederling
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:27 am

DfwRevolution wrote:
So what do you suggest? Stop investing in missile defense? Invest in further development and testing?

US: spend all the money you like on expensive toys. This is a "Reagans Star Wars" Echo.


Kicking up dirt against NK, China, .. and doing successful missile tests is a tightly linked marketing combo.

With the test showing lack of capabilities potential customers are urged to reconcider.
Do we buy these system and leverage some national advantage in shadows of US heckling

or

could it maybe be advisable to not let tension with those countries go overboard
and spare the money for expensive toys on the way.
Power loss for the US . Good Thing (TM)
Murphy is an optimist
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:11 am

salttee wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
So what do you suggest? Stop investing in missile defense? Invest in further development and testing?

It might be that missile defense is a money pit that offers no promise of ever delivering anything useful until directed energy is harnessed. I think a sober look at the problem is needed.

Can anybody here come up with a number on how much money has been poured down this money hole over the last 38 years, while leaving us defenseless against so pathetic an advasary as North Korea?


Patriot is one of the oldest missile defense systems in operation. It's development started in the 1960s during the Johnson administration.

Meanwhile, in the 21st century, Iron Dome has proven highly effective in battle. SM-3 has an operational exoatmospheric kill. THAAD has demonstrated impressive test results. It is patently false that missile defense hasn't delivered anything useful or shown any progress or that we must wait for direct energy weapons. Those are tired lines from the 1990s peaceniks.

We are not defenseless against North Korea. We have a range of operational systems - some better than others - that give us an estimated 60% chance that a single interceptor will stop an enemy ICBM. With two interceptors, that becomes 86%. With three interceptors, that becomes 94%. Much like a Kevlar vest, that's no guarantee but it's far better than nothing. The question is what intercept probability lets you sleep comfortably at night. If you want >60%, that means time and money, which are cheaper than blood and lives.

WIederling wrote:
could it maybe be advisable to not let tension with those countries go overboard


And what will appeasement with totalitarians cost?

WIederling wrote:
Power loss for the US . Good Thing (TM)


What actually went wrong in your personal life where you see it as a "Good Thing (TM)" for free societies - like the United States - to be at the mercy of the world's worst dictators?
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
salttee
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:24 am

DfwRevolution wrote:
Patriot is one of the oldest missile defense systems in operation. It's development started in the 1960s during the Johnson administration.
Its development began in 1976 and it was completely redesigned for the PAC 1 version in 1984, it has since gone through two more major upgrades including a completely new missile and completely new radar along with huge increases in computing power. Saying it's from the 1960s is a falsehood (in fact to use your term, it is patently false).
DfwRevolution wrote:
Meanwhile, in the 21st century, Iron Dome has proven highly effective in battle. SM-3 has an operational exoatmospheric kill.
Iron dome is designed to engage short range missiles and artillery shells. Anybody touting its effectiveness should remember that the testimonials to its effectiveness come from the same people who claimed that PAC 1 Patriots successfully engaged scuds in GW1. LOL

DfwRevolution wrote:
THAAD has demonstrated impressive test results.
Maybe it can deal with IRBMs, maybe not, nobody knows because its never been tested in the field; but in any event, it is incapable of defending against an ICBM.

DfwRevolution wrote:
It is patently false that missile defense hasn't delivered anything useful or shown any progress or that we must wait for direct energy weapons. Those are tired lines from the 1990s peaceniks.
You're hyperbole aside, Missile defense, as in the Star wars SDI that Reagan began pouring money into, has never proven itself effective even in scripted tests against targets which have a known trajectory.
DfwRevolution wrote:
We are not defenseless against North Korea. We have a range of operational systems - some better than others - that give us an estimated 60% chance that a single interceptor will stop an enemy ICBM. With two interceptors, that becomes 86%. With three interceptors, that becomes 94%. Much like a Kevlar vest, that's no guarantee but it's far better than nothing. The question is what intercept probability lets you sleep comfortably at night. If you want >60%, that means time and money, which are cheaper than blood and lives.
Current missile defense against ICBMs is in no way comparable to a Kevlar vest, that comparison is laughable. And your statistics are pulled out of thin air, they are meaningless; the fact is, we have no current defense against ICBMs. We have flushed trillions of taxpayers dollars down the drain, that's trillions with a "T", and we've gotten nothing useful for all that (except for providing make work jobs for the aerospace industry).

But on the other hand, nobody else has any defense against ICBMs, so there's that.
 
WIederling
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:28 am

salttee wrote:
But on the other hand, nobody else has any defense against ICBMs, so there's that.


Good Thing (TM) family atomics style last stand defensive measure.

Basic method of the US to circumvent that is closing in on a "foe" nation shortening reaction times.
( That is why placing missile defense systems at RU's borders is aggressive and not defensive.)

The survivable atomic war faction in the US seems to be happy and alive.
( also watch the new US drive for small nuclear weapons ... )
Murphy is an optimist
 
VSMUT
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:47 am

DfwRevolution wrote:
Meanwhile, in the 21st century, Iron Dome has proven highly effective in battle.


It has, but at such short ranges where a nuclear explosion would take out the target anyway.

DfwRevolution wrote:
We are not defenseless against North Korea. We have a range of operational systems - some better than others - that give us an estimated 60% chance that a single interceptor will stop an enemy ICBM. With two interceptors, that becomes 86%. With three interceptors, that becomes 94%. Much like a Kevlar vest, that's no guarantee but it's far better than nothing. The question is what intercept probability lets you sleep comfortably at night. If you want >60%, that means time and money, which are cheaper than blood and lives.


*Assuming the enemy only fires one ICBM, and that those test figures actually hold up in a real life scenario...
 
LMP737
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:52 am

DfwRevolution wrote:
. Those are tired lines from the 1990s peaceniks.


Here's a quote for you.

Our swollen budgets constantly have been misrepresented to the public. Our government has kept us in a perpetual state of fear — kept us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor — with the cry of grave national emergency. Always there has been some terrible evil at home or some monstrous foreign power that was going to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind it by furnishing the exorbitant funds demanded. Yet, in retrospect, these disasters seem never to have happened, seem never to have been quite real.

If you are wondering what left wing peacenik said this it was Douglas MacArthur.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
WIederling
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:27 pm

LMP737 wrote:
If you are wondering what left wing peacenik said this it was Douglas MacArthur.


As time moves on
Reason has receded further.

all else is as before.

Movies like Strangelove and Harold and Maude return as warnings.
I miss the peaceniks.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Ozair
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:26 pm

LMP737 wrote:
DfwRevolution wrote:
. Those are tired lines from the 1990s peaceniks.


Here's a quote for you.

Our swollen budgets constantly have been misrepresented to the public. Our government has kept us in a perpetual state of fear — kept us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor — with the cry of grave national emergency. Always there has been some terrible evil at home or some monstrous foreign power that was going to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind it by furnishing the exorbitant funds demanded. Yet, in retrospect, these disasters seem never to have happened, seem never to have been quite real.

If you are wondering what left wing peacenik said this it was Douglas MacArthur.

If there is one person you shouldn't quote to support your cause it is Douglas MacArthur. He was probably the most conceited and self-serving individual ever to serve in the US military.
 
LMP737
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:30 am

Ozair wrote:
If there is one person you shouldn't quote to support your cause it is Douglas MacArthur. He was probably the most conceited and self-serving individual ever to serve in the US military.


Yes I'm well aware of his ego. However was what he said wrong?
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
Ozair
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:02 am

LMP737 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
If there is one person you shouldn't quote to support your cause it is Douglas MacArthur. He was probably the most conceited and self-serving individual ever to serve in the US military.


Yes I'm well aware of his ego. However was what he said wrong?

If you consider the context of when it was given I tend to believe it was. He spoke that essentially against Eisenhower and the Military Industrial complex (although that specific phase wasn't mentioned for four years afterwards what Eisenhower was doing was pretty clear). The quote was made at a dinner for shareholders of the Sperry Rand Corporation, a sizeable military contractor at the time. Do you think his comments were intended to alienate the audience?
 
WIederling
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:13 am

Eisenhower went for some similar admonition at the end of his tenure.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Ozair
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:39 am

WIederling wrote:
Eisenhower went for some similar admonition at the end of his tenure.

Eisenhower is often misunderstood. He was never against the military industrial complex, he believed it to be a necessary element in providing the military protection the USA required. His son has spoken numerous times on how his father's words are often misinterpreted. What he did state was merely to caution against its influence.

Let us also be clear that in Eisenhower's time the defence budget was above 8% of GDP and it is nearly half that today. On that context alone it appears that Eisenhower’s message was received.
 
WIederling
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:53 pm

In the right hands everyones well thought out words are like putty.
Formable into any meaning what so ever.
Murphy is an optimist
 
LMP737
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:38 pm

Ozair wrote:
If you consider the context of when it was given I tend to believe it was.


How so? It seems to me to be rather accurate.


Ozair wrote:
Do you think his comments were intended to alienate the audience?


Do you think he cared?
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
LMP737
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:55 pm

Ozair wrote:

Let us also be clear that in Eisenhower's time the defence budget was above 8% of GDP and it is nearly half that today. On that context alone it appears that Eisenhower’s message was received.


Adjust defense spending for inflation and it's less under Eisenhower than it is now. On that context alone I would say his message was not received.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
LMP737
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:55 pm

Ozair wrote:

Let us also be clear that in Eisenhower's time the defence budget was above 8% of GDP and it is nearly half that today. On that context alone it appears that Eisenhower’s message was received.


Adjust defense spending for inflation and it's less under Eisenhower than it is now. On that context alone I would say his message was not received.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
Ozair
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:25 pm

LMP737 wrote:
Ozair wrote:

Let us also be clear that in Eisenhower's time the defence budget was above 8% of GDP and it is nearly half that today. On that context alone it appears that Eisenhower’s message was received.


Adjust defense spending for inflation and it's less under Eisenhower than it is now. On that context alone I would say his message was not received.

What does inflation have to do with a percent of GDP number? Inflations works both sides of that equation. Perhaps the total sum adjusted for inflation is comparatively bigger but the size of the number is menaingless.
LMP737 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
If you consider the context of when it was given I tend to believe it was.


How so? It seems to me to be rather accurate.

I disagree.

Ozair wrote:
Do you think his comments were intended to alienate the audience?


Do you think he cared?[/quote]
Only to the extent of his political aspirations and personal status.
 
LMP737
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:06 pm

Ozair wrote:
What does inflation have to do with a percent of GDP number? Inflations works both sides of that equation. Perhaps the total sum adjusted for inflation

s.


When you adjust for inflation we spend more now dollar wise than we did in the fifties. That is an undeniable fact. Just as Eisenhower cutting defense spending by 27% shortly after he took office. As is the fact that we spend more money than the rest of the world combined.
Never take financial advice from co-workers.
 
Ozair
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Re: Another Patriot missile miss

Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:38 pm

LMP737 wrote:

When you adjust for inflation we spend more now dollar wise than we did in the fifties.

Just take a moment and consider what you are saying. If the % of GDP number is above 8% in 1958 and the % of GDP number today is 4.5% then the US spends less today on defence as a component of its economy than it did in 1958. The size of either number is immaterial to the percentage and inflation has literally nothing to do with this.

LMP737 wrote:
That is an undeniable fact. Just as Eisenhower cutting defense spending by 27% shortly after he took office.

While Eisenhower initially cut spending it then increased significantly under his presidency to nearly 15% before spending sat comfortably at 10%.

Image

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/sp ... e_Spending

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