Now being reported in the media (most reliable source, in Croatian: http://obris.org/hrvatska/morh-poslao-r ... eni-avion/) that the government had today once again issued five RFPs for the replacement of its rag-tag MiG-21 fleet. The contenders are:

• F-16 (requests sent to Greece, Israel and the US)
• F/A-50
• Gripen

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out this time...

How many aircraft are they looking for?

JetBuddy wrote:

How many aircraft are they looking for?

No source I could find has stated a concrete number, but in past attempts 12 examples were most often quoted (ten single-seaters and two twin-sticks).

https://www.defensenews.com/smr/europea ... ghter-buy/

This article states 18 but if they go for the Gripen or new F-16s I would say the max they could afford at this time would not be more than 10.

No used JAS39?

Read a report that the Croatian government flew down to Israel to take a look at recently retired F-16A/B aircraft. If purchased, they would be refurbished and updated before delivery.

Hard to beat the F-16 in this arena. Overwhelming International fleet, parts, training and support. It truly outstrips other platforms in this regard.

Dutchy wrote:

No used JAS39?

No, the only used frames considered are the F-16s.

CX747 wrote:

Hard to beat the F-16 in this arena. Overwhelming International fleet, parts, training and support. It truly outstrips other platforms in this regard.

The only question is is it too much aircraft for Croatian needs. In reality, the only thing fast jets are used for in Croatia is air policing - making a full-blown combat platform an operational and financial overkill. One wonders whether the F/A-50 would be a better choice: cheaper, also likely to be well supported given Lockheed's involvement in the design, does all the AF really needs (i.e. can intercept a stray airliner)... and opens the door to possible commercial use in training pilots of other NATO countries, helping to relieve some of its maintenance costs.

Over a decade back, I heard from some sources in the Indian Defense ministry that 2 dozen well maintained HAL built Mig-21's were being offered "for free" to the Croatian AF if they bought some HAL built Dhruv Helicopters.

Wonder if that deal actually went through?

BawliBooch wrote:

Over a decade back, I heard from some sources in the Indian Defense ministry that 2 dozen well maintained HAL built Mig-21's were being offered "for free" to the Croatian AF if they bought some HAL built Dhruv Helicopters.

Wonder if that deal actually went through?

As far as the public domain is concerned at least, Bisons had been officially offered only once - a couple of years back during the last big push to revitalize the MiG-21 fleet. They were briefly pitted against modernization programs from the Ukraine and Romania, but were quickly dropped as a serious option.

No MiGs or helicopters ever operated by the CroAF were of Indian origin or manufacture. All of the hardware is/was either Yugoslav, Soviet/Russian, US, Canadian, Swiss or Czech.

What is the cheapest solution that can intercept an airliner? Seems if it cannot do that then it is not needed.

The cheapest? Perhaps some high mileage business jets could be fitted with a couple of launch rails for AAMs from their existing inventory. It would be just about as effective as most any of the lower end trainers or retired fighters that are out there, but perhaps much cheaper to maintain... Obviously would require a lot of electronics work, but, hey, when you save a lot on the platform...

LightningZ71 wrote:

The cheapest? Perhaps some high mileage business jets could be fitted with a couple of launch rails for AAMs from their existing inventory. It would be just about as effective as most any of the lower end trainers or retired fighters that are out there, but perhaps much cheaper to maintain... Obviously would require a lot of electronics work, but, hey, when you save a lot on the platform...

A bizjet - even a very fast one - has a crippling limitation as an air policing platform: it would struggle just to keep pace with a modern airliner, let alone intercept it from a dynamically inferior position (lower and slower). It could perhaps work in a "handover situation", where the airliner in question has already been intercepted elsewhere and just needs an escort through local airspace... but if anything happens in Croatia proper, a converted bizjet would be as useful as a Cessna 172. In this situation, you need an aircraft with a large excess of power, one that can both climb to any altitude within the confines of the country - and then have the speed necessary to intercept and identify the aircraft before reaching the first border.

Another issue is cost; while it is possible to give what are originally passenger aircraft a limited combat capability (the P-8 for example), it is prohibitively expensive to do so on just a couple of old frames for a single operator. It is not impossible that the overall cost of such a solution (R&D and operation included) would be equal to those of a purpose-built aircraft such as used F-16s or some such... especially since you get other capabilities not included in the bizjet.

If we're looking at the issue solely through the prism of air policing, an ideal solution would be one that has some of the raw performance of a dedicated fighter - but not all of the capability. Which pretty much falls right into the heading of the modern armed trainer.

EDIT: the big question then is does the Croatian AF see itself a purely defensive force (which it is at the moment); or do they have any plans for a future offensive capability in mind (such as participating in multinational missions). This will likely be the biggest factor - aside from pure politics - that will decide what class of aircraft will win.

TripleDelta wrote:

If we're looking at the issue solely through the prism of air policing, an ideal solution would be one that has some of the raw performance of a dedicated fighter - but not all of the capability. Which pretty much falls right into the heading of the modern armed trainer.

EDIT: the big question then is does the Croatian AF see itself a purely defensive force (which it is at the moment); or do they have any plans for a future offensive capability in mind (such as participating in multinational missions). This will likely be the biggest factor - aside from pure politics - that will decide what class of aircraft will win.

They are NATO members but even for air policing it is nearly pointless to buy fighters. Croatia is so small that any stray jet will cross it in a few minutes. If they decide that they must have fighters, they should get some that can do CAS/light attack roles too. Again, this would speak in favor of an armed trainer. There is already so much strike capability within NATO that a couple of F-16s moving to Croatia changes nothing. Instead, they should look first what they need themselves and then integrate it into NATO (or other combined forces).

I agree that an armed trainer would make the most sense.

Maybe some armed Super Tucanos or T-6 Texan IIs would be sufficient. They would provide a unique contribution to NATO as well. Not good for air policing though.

TripleDelta wrote:

Now being reported in the media (most reliable source, in Croatian: http://obris.org/hrvatska/morh-poslao-r ... eni-avion/) that the government had today once again issued five RFPs for the replacement of its rag-tag MiG-21 fleet. The contenders are:

• F-16 (requests sent to Greece, Israel and the US)
• F/A-50
• Gripen

It'll be interesting to see how it pans out this time...

They could try to negotiate "hard" with Greece, don´t know how well they their planes are mantained or wich version are but I imagine Greece would like to make some money fast and would love this oportunity.... that´s just my point of view.

Don´t you think?

I hate to say it but it seems they don´t need Gripen,s anyway. Perhaps some A/B,s would made it but they are long gone.

LOL, my suggestion of a biz jet was largely tongue-firmly-in-cheek, however, that's not to say that the idea is entirely without merit. For a cool $22 million, they can purchase CitationX+ frames that will sprint at .935 for as long as you're willing to burn the fuel. With a largely empty interior, they can make altitude rather rapidly as well. I'll grant that, if fitted with ANY sort of external stores, they aren't going to go that fast, but then, most jet trainers also run into sharply reduced maximum speeds when they have external stores on the pylons as well as they don't have a lot of excess engine thrust capacity unlike frontline fighters. I'll grant you that the citation has less than 1/3 the thrust to weight ratio and climb performance of the lower end of the modern, western jet trainers, but, they can't be converted into an executive transport and fly around government officials either!

Honestly, for what Croatia would want to do, their best bet with the KAI T-50/FA-50. It's got the best climb performance of the bunch while still being multi-role. It's on par with other trainers for cost, and has fairly modern systems. For air soverignty work, with just a pair of AAMs on the tip rails, it should get to altitude in just a few minutes with enough fuel to engage anything that's there. It's all they need or can likely afford right now. In a bulk order, they should be able to get them for less than $25 mill a piece.

tapairbus370 wrote:

They could try to negotiate "hard" with Greece, don´t know how well they their planes are mantained or wich version are but I imagine Greece would like to make some money fast and would love this oportunity.... that´s just my point of view.

Don´t you think?

Greece was quite a surprise actually... used F-16s from Europe have always been on the cards, but only Portugal and the Netherlands had ever been mentioned as possible sources.

In other news, the newspapers report that the government has already secured funds in the 2018 budget for the first instalment of the buy. The due date for submitting offers is 3 October, and it is reported that 10 single seaters and two twin sticks are required.

TripleDelta wrote:

tapairbus370 wrote:

They could try to negotiate "hard" with Greece, don´t know how well they their planes are mantained or wich version are but I imagine Greece would like to make some money fast and would love this oportunity.... that´s just my point of view.

Don´t you think?

Greece was quite a surprise actually... used F-16s from Europe have always been on the cards, but only Portugal and the Netherlands had ever been mentioned as possible sources.

In other news, the newspapers report that the government has already secured funds in the 2018 budget for the first instalment of the buy. The due date for submitting offers is 3 October, and it is reported that 10 single seaters and two twin sticks are required.

If it is Greek F-16's, it would probably be their Block 30's. They have 34 single seaters and 6 twin seaters.

According to the Croatian defense minister (Damir Kristicevic), a person who was a frontline commander during the Croatian war of independence and eventually became a but since retired general. Croatia will get a complete defensive and offensive platform. Many times he has mentioned in the media how much of a critical roll the CroAF and the Mig-21s played during the final stages of the war and has expressed his ambition to not allow Croatia to be in the situation it found it self in the early 90's. I think this is something he seems very passionate about so as long as he remains defense minister I would put my money on the Gripen or F-16s. Will be interesting to see what the eventual outcome will be but the Gripen would have to be favorite since it is already operated or chosen by countries in a similar situation as Croatia (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary).

Personally I think we will soon see F-16's wearing CroAF markings (just a personal opinion based on recent military cooperation with the US) but I think it will come down to a stable Croatian government and who can offer the best offset agreement to Croatia. One of the key parameters outlined by the Croatian Government.

mig21umd wrote:

his ambition to not allow Croatia to be in the situation it found it self in the early 90's.

And that is precisely the most worrying thing in this - and all previous - replacement attempts: old guard soldiers living in times gone by buying stuff the country doesn't need with money it doesn't have. This mix of ex-Yugoslav "everyone's the enemy" paranoia and 90s flag waving is exactly the reason the CroAF is nowadays in such a poor operational state.

If the inclusion of proper fighter aircraft is guided by the desire to eventually become a contributing member of NATO, that would not raise a single local eyebrow; despite the cost of such a solution, the political points gained could in time far outweigh the actual cash spent.

But if the intent is to enter into a trans-Danube willy measuring contest, then the whole deal is a waste of time and money... money that could be better spent on, for example, reforming the CroAF's fixed-wing transport capability, or acquiring newer utility helicopters.

TripleDelta wrote:

mig21umd wrote:

his ambition to not allow Croatia to be in the situation it found it self in the early 90's.

And that is precisely the most worrying thing in this - and all previous - replacement attempts: old guard soldiers living in times gone by buying stuff the country doesn't need with money it doesn't have. This mix of ex-Yugoslav "everyone's the enemy" paranoia and 90s flag waving is exactly the reason the CroAF is nowadays in such a poor operational state.

If the inclusion of proper fighter aircraft is guided by the desire to eventually become a contributing member of NATO, that would not raise a single local eyebrow; despite the cost of such a solution, the political points gained could in time far outweigh the actual cash spent.

But if the intent is to enter into a trans-Danube willy measuring contest, then the whole deal is a waste of time and money... money that could be better spent on, for example, reforming the CroAF's fixed-wing transport capability, or acquiring newer utility helicopters.

I think the Croatian motivation is 2 fold. One is as you stated to become a proper contributing member to NATO and the other is to ensure that there is a decent military balance in the region. Even though we are nowhere near shooting at each other in the region I would not say that a conflict in the not too distant future can not be 100% ruled out especially after seeing how quickly the situation in the Ukraine escalated and how with some wanting to permanently change the boarders of Bosnia, could cause some instability where even someone like Mesic stated such a move could bring a military response from Croatia. I think a modern and well equipped Croatian Military is essential as a deterrent and as a investment in peace. Any conflict in the region could have a much larger impact on the Croatian economy compared to the cost of a number of modern fighters. When you consider the cost the last conflict had I believe the "old guard" is talking more about ensuring Croatia does not present as a easy target again more than worrying about the size of their collective johns.

Some additional, fresh info (link in Croatian: http://obris.org/hrvatska/krsticevic-264/): to ease the pressure on the state budget, the RFPs stipulate a "2+6+4" delivery schedule, with two jets to be delivered in 2020, six in 2021 and the remaining four in 2022. This is stated as conditional on the contract being signed by mid-2018 the latest.

There's no clear or formal statement as to whether the single or twin-seaters would be delivered first.

mig21umd wrote:

Any conflict in the region could have a much larger impact on the Croatian economy compared to the cost of a number of modern fighters. When you consider the cost the last conflict had I believe the "old guard" is talking more about ensuring Croatia does not present as a easy target again more than worrying about the size of their collective johns.

If there is a conflict in the region, chances are it would go in one of only two directions: a proxy war between NATO, Russia and/or Turkey - or a dirty, irregular ground campaign. In the case of the former, given the vast forces that could be called upon, a 12-strong fighter force would be swatted aside like a mosquito; while in the latter, the suitability of fast jets in mountainous terrain (versus helicopters and dedicated CAS aircraft) is questionable.

Another "standalone" Balkan war is highly unlikely since all potential armies in the region are so small and operationally inflexible that they simply could not sustain any offensive operation. There is no Yugoslav People's Army anymore... no dominant, overwhelming military in the region... no late 80s and early 90s... only small, purely defensive forces that are not even a shadow of their former selves. The threats that existed 20 years ago are long gone; the threats that exist now either call for a different hardware setup - or are so big that 112 jets would not be enough. So why not buy something that fulfills a basic air policing role and then invest the rest into those parts of the armed forces that actually make a difference (such as firefighting and transport squadrons, engineering battalions, navy SAR ships and so on)?

Croatia officially received 4 bids from an expected 5 (the Koreans with the KA-50 did not submit a bid).

Israel offering the F-16C, Greece also offering a version of the F-16 while apparently the US has offered Croatia the F-16V block 70 which would be the most modern version of the F-16 to date but also the most expensive. Sweden also submitted a bid with the Gripen. First aircraft are expected to arrive on 2020 with a total of 12 being delivered by 2022.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out with the current Croatian government looks to be committed to making this happen but this could all unravel with a Croatian GFC type of event where the largest Croatian private company (Agrokor) which employs tens of thousands of people in Croatia and the region and also contributes to decent chunk of Croatia's GDP is on the verge of collapse. If this happens than Croatia would struggle to see this through. Probably struggle to make it happen anyway.

Croatian has aloud 50 million euros in the state budget of 2018 for the initial down payment of the new fighter jets. with the decision on type is expected to be announced by the end of this month.
I always felt that this would be again postponed but it is looking more likely to actually happen.

Croatia also announced that it is very keen to acquire 2 Black hawk helicopters to be used to support special forces.

See third last paragraph for notes on defense spending:
https://www.total-croatia-news.com/poli ... for-police

https://www.total-croatia-news.com/poli ... elicopters

And then there were two!

It has recently been reported that the US F-16 block 70/72 and the Greek F-16 block 30 bids are way behind based on the cost of the US offer and the need for major upgrades on the aircraft Greece is offering.

This leaves the SAAB Gripen and the Israeli F-16 Barak as the favorites with apparently the Barak being considered as the best option for Croatia at this time. This has resulted in SAAB along with the Swedish government increasing its lobbying and offering to build a large science and aeronautical center in Zagreb.

In about a week the committee of appointed experts will announce the winner. It will then be up to the government to make a final decision by years end.

https://www.total-croatia-news.com/poli ... r-aircraft

https://www.total-croatia-news.com/busi ... in-croatia

Thanks for keeping us updated, will it be publicly announced next week?

Still hoping for the SAAB to win, in the long term, it might also be the better option. The F-16 is on its way out.

Dutchy wrote:

Still hoping for the SAAB to win, in the long term, it might also be the better option. The F-16 is on its way out.

I think the F-16s fate is now in the hands of India. Given they are also choosing between the above two, albeit the latest variants of each platform, whichever wins will see local production of 200 jets. In the F-16 case India would become the sole production line and continue to support existing fleets for the remaining life of type. With Gripen they will manufacture locally but that would become the third production line for Gripen so export orders from an Indian line would be doubtful.

mig21umd wrote:

This has resulted in SAAB along with the Swedish government increasing its lobbying and offering to build a large science and aeronautical center in Zagreb.

This offer by SAAB always strikes me as an easy way to gain offsets without offering much actual knowledge. SAAB's take on the centres is below,

Saab is also building relationships through a global innovation programme, which is mainly designed for countries where Saab wants to establish a long-term presence. Saab brings the way the company works with R&D in Sweden to new markets by buil ding relationships with researchers, companies and governments. One example is the Swedish Brazilian Innovation & Research Center (CISB), which identifies, develops and supports research and development in advanced technology, specifically in the areas of the environment, defence, and transport. The organisation has 17 members and over 100 partners. Many potential customers want to share the technologies and capabilities that Saab can offer, at the same time that Saab gets an opportunity to participate early on in customer projects.

http://saabgroup.com/responsibility/con ... statement/

Ozair wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Still hoping for the SAAB to win, in the long term, it might also be the better option. The F-16 is on its way out.

I think the F-16s fate is now in the hands of India. Given they are also choosing between the above two, albeit the latest variants of each platform, whichever wins will see local production of 200 jets. In the F-16 case India would become the sole production line and continue to support existing fleets for the remaining life of type. With Gripen they will manufacture locally but that would become the third production line for Gripen so export orders from an Indian line would be doubtful.

Not to sidetrack this thread completely, but do we expect to see many new orders for the F-16? I expect only to see 50 top-ups at the most and wouldn't be surprised to see any delivered to non-Indian operators.

Dutchy wrote:

Ozair wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Still hoping for the SAAB to win, in the long term, it might also be the better option. The F-16 is on its way out.

I think the F-16s fate is now in the hands of India. Given they are also choosing between the above two, albeit the latest variants of each platform, whichever wins will see local production of 200 jets. In the F-16 case India would become the sole production line and continue to support existing fleets for the remaining life of type. With Gripen they will manufacture locally but that would become the third production line for Gripen so export orders from an Indian line would be doubtful.

Not to sidetrack this thread completely, but do we expect to see many new orders for the F-16? I expect only to see 50 top-ups at the most and wouldn't be surprised to see any delivered to non-Indian operators.

Agree I think 50 outside of India is probably too many but there is still a long future in upgrade work and spare parts given even the USAF will have F-16s around for another 15 years. Perhaps a good 25 years at least and much longer if India does choose the F-16.

Ozair wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Ozair wrote:

I think the F-16s fate is now in the hands of India. Given they are also choosing between the above two, albeit the latest variants of each platform, whichever wins will see local production of 200 jets. In the F-16 case India would become the sole production line and continue to support existing fleets for the remaining life of type. With Gripen they will manufacture locally but that would become the third production line for Gripen so export orders from an Indian line would be doubtful.

Not to sidetrack this thread completely, but do we expect to see many new orders for the F-16? I expect only to see 50 top-ups at the most and wouldn't be surprised to see any delivered to non-Indian operators.

Agree I think 50 outside of India is probably too many but there is still a long future in upgrade work and spare parts given even the USAF will have F-16s around for another 15 years. Perhaps a good 25 years at least and much longer if India does choose the F-16.

True, but will that work go to India? Will all spare parts be produced there?

[quote="Dutchy"]Thanks for keeping us updated, will it be publicly announced next week?

This is what it sounds like. The committee will present what they have decided to be the best option to the Croatian government which SHOULD then make a decision by years end.

Apparently the Israeli's are favored at this time because their offer is 300 million Euro's cheaper than what the Swedes are offering and the aircraft have recently been refurbished so they have about 2500 hours left on the air-frames which will give Croatia at least 25 years of operational use.

mig21umd wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Thanks for keeping us updated, will it be publicly announced next week?

This is what it sounds like. The committee will present what they have decided to be the best option to the Croatian government which SHOULD then make a decision by years end.

Apparently the Israeli's are favored at this time because their offer is 300 million Euro's cheaper than what the Swedes are offering and the aircraft have recently been refurbished so they have about 2500 hours left on the air-frames which will give Croatia at least 25 years of operational use.

2500 hours/25 years is about 25 minutes/day.... is it even enough for training?

SAS A340 wrote:

mig21umd wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Thanks for keeping us updated, will it be publicly announced next week?

This is what it sounds like. The committee will present what they have decided to be the best option to the Croatian government which SHOULD then make a decision by years end.

Apparently the Israeli's are favored at this time because their offer is 300 million Euro's cheaper than what the Swedes are offering and the aircraft have recently been refurbished so they have about 2500 hours left on the air-frames which will give Croatia at least 25 years of operational use.

2500 hours/25 years is about 25 minutes/day.... is it even enough for training?

100h / year isn't a lot, but fighters don't fly a lot of hours. They are expensive to operate and require a lot of hours to fix them each time they fly. Wasn't the NATO recommendation that a fighter pilot flies 180h/year?

Dutchy wrote:

Wasn't the NATO recommendation that a fighter pilot flies 180h/year?

If NATO decides to transfer the necessary funds into the Croatian budget, I'm sure the military will gladly comply .

This entire fighter tender is - as before - a complete farce. The country is falling apart at the seams, all public investments are being scaled down, the standard of life is among the lowest in the EU... and the old ex-Yugoslav guard sitting snugly in the government is too preoccupied with playing war games to notice.

EDIT: what's worse, instead of channeling what little funds are available to the air force into something constructive - such as finally re-forming a fixed-wing transport squadron, or modernizing the helicopter corps - the ruling elite keep chasing a pipe dream of being a "regional superpower". If they had selected a supersonic armed trainer that could then be leased out to NATO partners and at least partially cover its upkeep - while still providing basic air policing capability - it is possible that many in the country would have little against spending the money; but this "my stick is bigger than yours" approach is not winning them many hearts here. Even the local media - traditionally upbeat and enthusiastic about anything that waves the Croatian flag around - is turning critical to the whole deal, especially considering recent economic and political scandals threatening to take down the government (again).

Dutchy wrote:

True, but will that work go to India? Will all spare parts be produced there?

The process will phase production over gradually.

Howard said winning the Indian contract worth billions of dollars will protect thousands of jobs at Lockheed in the United States as well as at dozens of components suppliers, since the Indian facility will come up gradually.

"We will start with an assembly, you can't go from ground zero, from a standing stop to full production in a week. You have to phase it in."

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lockhee ... nt-1743588
There will be supplies that maintain production of F-16 parts in the US and other places around the world while there will be suppliers of more common components that will lose out to Indian companies who can manufacture the components for cheaper. It also comes down to the timeframes on agreements that the existing F-16 supplier base has with LM.

2500 hours/25 years is about 25 minutes/day.... is it even enough for training?[/quote]

Probably more than what they do today in the Mig's..... The economy is showing some signs of recovery and as long as we don't see any major economic shock than this will most likely increase over time.

If Croatia does go ahead with this than I doubt they will be putting on too many hours on the aircraft any time soon but like I mentioned above with the improving economy and the NATO requirement to increase the defence budget to 2% could see funds become more available in the future.

Some have argued that this is not a necessity for Croatia but I think peace in this part of the world can't be taken for granted and as a result I think it is important that Croatia does not give up on its fast jet capability. This is something which can be very difficult and extremely expensive to regain so if it is possible to maintain it than I hope Croatia does.

[If they had selected a supersonic armed trainer that could then be leased out to NATO partners and at least partially cover its upkeep - while still providing basic air policing capability - it is possible that many in the country would have little against spending the money;]

Actually Croatia is well positioned to offer it air policing services to neighboring countries such as Slovenia, BiH and even Montenegro so they could still see some revenue coming in from having a modern fighter squadron. Maybe we could even see pilots from the above countries become fast jet exchange pilots and this could be another source of revenue used to contribute to their up keep.

mig21umd wrote:

Some have argued that this is not a necessity for Croatia but I think peace in this part of the world can't be taken for granted and as a result I think it is important that Croatia does not give up on its fast jet capability. This is something which can be very difficult and extremely expensive to regain so if it is possible to maintain it than I hope Croatia does.

If the capability to participate in a regional war is really necessary, then the air force should be investing in transport helicopters, gunships and light strike aircraft, not "prestige" "look at us" projects like full-blown fighters, 90% of whose capabilities will never be used.

Local media have started reporting that - apparently - modernized Israeli F-16A/Bs will likely be selected in the end. They are being touted as the favorites due to their price (even with spares and weapons they're said to be cheaper than "naked" Gripens), versatility and the desire to deepen economic and industrial ties with Israel...

Surprise, surprise - the final decision has been indefinitely postponed again. The gov't had announced that it wanted to examine the two remaining bids in more detail - a move that had been met with considerable surprise and incredulity from military circles, who view it as pressure from SAAB to drop the preferred Israeli offer which had - up till now - been all but officially chosen.

TripleDelta wrote:

Surprise, surprise - the final decision has been indefinitely postponed again. The gov't had announced that it wanted to examine the two remaining bids in more detail - a move that had been met with considerable surprise and incredulity from military circles, who view it as pressure from SAAB to drop the preferred Israeli offer which had - up till now - been all but officially chosen.

I think we should take bets on whether Canada or Croatia will get their new fighters first, both seem unable to follow a process.

Ozair wrote:

TripleDelta wrote:

Surprise, surprise - the final decision has been indefinitely postponed again. The gov't had announced that it wanted to examine the two remaining bids in more detail - a move that had been met with considerable surprise and incredulity from military circles, who view it as pressure from SAAB to drop the preferred Israeli offer which had - up till now - been all but officially chosen.

I think we should take bets on whether Canada or Croatia will get their new fighters first, both seem unable to follow a process.

In most countries they follow the same path, simple, military spending, especially a fighter, is a high stake game and pushing it through parliament is quite hard because there will always be better ways to spend this kind of money by investing it in society.

Dutchy wrote:

In most countries they follow the same path, simple, military spending, especially a fighter, is a high stake game and pushing it through parliament is quite hard because there will always be better ways to spend this kind of money by investing it in society.

I'm sure TripleDelta can tell us how long this replacement process has been going on but it has been restarted at least a couple of times. Clearly cost, and need, are issues but, please correct if I am wrong, they keep arriving at the same conclusion.

Training, parts, interoperability and an extensively proven combat track record all come with the F-16. The Gipen just can't compete with that. Spend enough time in the squadron bars and you learn that the Gripen is a dud. Put that together with the fact that the F-16 will continue on with the USAF/USAFR/USANG for at least another 20+ years and the choice is a no brainer.

Dutchy wrote:

In most countries they follow the same path, simple, military spending, especially a fighter, is a high stake game and pushing it through parliament is quite hard because there will always be better ways to spend this kind of money by investing it in society.

If only that was the case; unfortunately though, the gov't had been dead set on a new fighter from day one, so this turn of events is definitely not due to an altruistic change in priorities. What's more, the budgetary maneuvers necessary to finance the fighter replacement had already been put into place, and it was generally accepted that it was only a matter of time before the deal with the winner is formally signed and ratified.

Ozair wrote:

I'm sure TripleDelta can tell us how long this replacement process has been going on but it has been restarted at least a couple of times.

The serious wheels had been set into motion almost a decade ago, with the first true motions being in the early 2010s.

Ozair wrote:

Clearly cost, and need, are issues but, please correct if I am wrong, they keep arriving at the same conclusion.

Cost is a big issue - but politics are bigger. The gov't itself had admitted that both short and long-term expenses are only one part of the equation, and that political relations are as equally important as the price. The general feeling among military analysts here is that the pressure from SAAB had gone one notch up - and since every Croatian gov't from 1991 onward has been as spineless as an amoeba, this scenario is certainly not impossible.

So the winner is...... Same old crap.

I felt something was up when nothing was announced by years end. Prior to that I was pretty optimistic that a decision would be made especially since just like TripleDelta mentioned they had already allocated money in the budget to the project.

If this is they way Croatia wants to go than their only realistic option at this time is the Israeli F-16 offer. Same or very similar capability to the Gripen but at a much much lower price.

I am pretty sure it got discussed here already, but wouldn't it be overall more efficient and cost effective to out-source the air policing? Because

- In a war scenario, a fleet of 12-16 A/C wouldn't make any difference, so easy of a target
- upholding a fighter force has huge cost associated
- and in such a tiny country you basically crossed the country in 10min with a fighter, so no operational viable area

Outsource it to Austria, e.g.. They would benefit from added flying hours for their crews and Croatia could use the money for far better things...