TheSonntag
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Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:38 pm

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/a ... 57586.html

Sorry, so far not much News. Would it be politically feasible to integrate US B-61 nukes into German-French developed fighter plane? (The Tornado was European, too, but it was a Project with more Partners).
 
Olddog
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:53 pm

I heard that on TV at the joint press conference. Not much detail, just that the studies should start next year. If Merkel wins the next election I presume.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:37 pm

I don't think this changes if she loses. The Tornados are getting there slowly and any serious competitor would want to strengthen the ties with France too. There is a clear consensus that *something* must be acquired and it certainly won't be F-35s, not with the current US president and the strong european lobbyists.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:24 pm

mxaxai wrote:
I don't think this changes if she loses. The Tornados are getting there slowly and any serious competitor would want to strengthen the ties with France too. There is a clear consensus that *something* must be acquired and it certainly won't be F-35s, not with the current US president and the strong european lobbyists.


If they want to develop a clean-sheet stealth fighter, they are definitely late to replace Tornados.
If they agree to make a Super-Rafale or Typhoon NG, they can do it within a decade.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:04 pm

YIMBY wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
I don't think this changes if she loses. The Tornados are getting there slowly and any serious competitor would want to strengthen the ties with France too. There is a clear consensus that *something* must be acquired and it certainly won't be F-35s, not with the current US president and the strong european lobbyists.


If they want to develop a clean-sheet stealth fighter, they are definitely late to replace Tornados.
If they agree to make a Super-Rafale or Typhoon NG, they can do it within a decade.


With the recently developed Tornado ASSTA 3.0 upgrade and possible Typhoon and Rafale upgrades within the next 10 years, they should be able to manage just fine. Airbus has talked about a fighter that is going to build on a lot of existing technology, not a plane that is going to blow the budgets and timeframes with unrealistic expectations like a certain other project. If they do it smartly, EIS in 2035 should be completely possible.

TheSonntag wrote:
Would it be politically feasible to integrate US B-61 nukes into German-French developed fighter plane?


Or just use French ASMPs or future ASN4Gs?
 
steman
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:57 am

It´s about time! They finally realised they cannot depend on US Military hardware forever and they need to keep the necessary know how and capability to build world class fighters. Considering that both Rafale and Typhoon took about 20 years from first ideas to entry into service, I actually think this is already kinda late. Let´s hope they find a way to speed things up. A big improvement would be if the respective partners (and eventual new partner nations who might join them) will set aside their particular interests and will work towards the best common result. I will believe it when I see it.
 
bunumuring
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:41 am

Hey guys,
All of this talk reminds of when the Europeans were TOGETHER going to design and build a new fighter - before France split off to develop Rafale and the 'rest' continued on the develop the Typhoon.
Has there been any mention of who else may join the party? Didn't France and Britain make some kind of declaration relatively recently about developing arms together?
Isn't Turkey planning on developing a new fighter - could they join up with this?
And lastly, is France considering whatever design comes from this to be developed into a new carrier-borne aircraft?
I guess it's probably to early to answer these questions...
Cheers
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
VSMUT
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:01 pm

bunumuring wrote:
Has there been any mention of who else may join the party? Didn't France and Britain make some kind of declaration relatively recently about developing arms together?


The usual suspects I would think. Spain seems likely, possibly Italy. I could see Greece joining it too. Depending on what it ends up with, I could see Portugal join up as well.
The French-British thing was about UAVs I think, and was before Brexit.

bunumuring wrote:
Isn't Turkey planning on developing a new fighter - could they join up with this?


In this day and age? With the French? And with Erdogans unbelievably bad relationship with Germany? Never. Besides, I think Turkey has already teamed up with SAAB/Sweden on that project.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:23 pm

VSMUT wrote:
bunumuring wrote:
Has there been any mention of who else may join the party? Didn't France and Britain make some kind of declaration relatively recently about developing arms together?


The usual suspects I would think. Spain seems likely, possibly Italy. I could see Greece joining it too. Depending on what it ends up with, I could see Portugal join up as well.
The French-British thing was about UAVs I think, and was before Brexit.

bunumuring wrote:
Isn't Turkey planning on developing a new fighter - could they join up with this?


In this day and age? With the French? And with Erdogans unbelievably bad relationship with Germany? Never. Besides, I think Turkey has already teamed up with SAAB/Sweden on that project.


On Turkey, spot on, no political will to do this, actually a political won't :D

I could see the Brits moving forward and join next year. Brexit or not. They have developed the SEPECAT Jaguar with the French before joining the EU or EEG.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEPECAT_Jaguar
Brittan doesn't want to go out of the fighter game just yet, would be my guess.

The Turks teamed-up with BAe.
http://www.baesystems.com/en/article/ba ... -programme
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:33 pm

Will this be an Airbus project? I'm guessing it must be a so called 5th generation aircraft, but I'm wondering if it will have stealth capabilities.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:41 pm

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,
All of this talk reminds of when the Europeans were TOGETHER going to design and build a new fighter - before France split off to develop Rafale and the 'rest' continued on the develop the Typhoon.
Has there been any mention of who else may join the party? Didn't France and Britain make some kind of declaration relatively recently about developing arms together?
Cheers
Bunumuring

True, lets hope their ideas what a perfect fighter jet should look like don't diverge again. I am confident because
a) Cold war is over and Germany & France are roughly equally far away from any potentially hostile border
b) France's ties with her colonies have loosed some more, while Germany has recently started supporting french operations there
c) With Rafale & Eurofighter in service for some time to come, both can focus on what they don't have yet instead of looking for a one-size-fits-all fighter. If it shall be a clean-sheet, I expect something stealthy with a Tornado/Mirage-like mission profile.

YIMBY wrote:
If they agree to make a Super-Rafale or Typhoon NG, they can do it within a decade.

Both are pointless. Both are pretty much the best you can expect from a conventional fighter. Sure, they could be improved with some systems upgrades or a better engine but their only REAL problems are price and lack of stealth.
 
wingman
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:07 pm

steman wrote:
It´s about time! They finally realised they cannot depend on US Military hardware forever...


It's been tough depending on those US-built Rafales, Typhoons and older Mirages and Jaguars all these years!
 
steman
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:11 pm

wingman wrote:
steman wrote:
It´s about time! They finally realised they cannot depend on US Military hardware forever...


It's been tough depending on those US-built Rafales, Typhoons and older Mirages and Jaguars all these years!


Very funny :-)
But what I mean is that they need to start developing the next fighter now if they want to be able to replace Tornados and Mirages 2000s (as well as Typhoons and Raffles) with something home built rather than buying from the US and lose the know how to make advanced military designs. And let´s not forget the hundreds of F-104s, F-4s, F-16s, F-18s and in the futures F-35s that equipped most air forces in Western Europe over several decades.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:27 pm

Dutchy wrote:
I could see the Brits moving forward and join next year. Brexit or not. They have developed the SEPECAT Jaguar with the French before joining the EU or EEG.


I just can't see the UK joining in on this. They are stuck with their F-35 commitment, and the political leadership will be running around like a headless chicken for the next 5 years. I could also foresee the EU getting into the development of this new fighter, which would probably eliminate the UK too. And honestly, it would probably be best for all parts in they stay out of the development process. The fewer major partners the better, anything else will result in inevitable scope creep just like the F-35.
 
bunumuring
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:00 pm

Hey guys,
Yes I can see Britain joining in ... more so as an early-days silent partner like Hawker Siddeley was in the earliest days of Airbus.
Spain and Italy I agree with as well.
Netherlands? Portugal? What about Poland?
I understand the situation re Turkey and agree it would be very very unlikely for that country to join in. Likewise, I think Sweden would not join, so to allow their continued focus on the Gripen and potentially the Boeing/Saab trainer that may have an awesome future.
.. and what about a wildcard like Israel? Unlikely I know but could it possibly work?
Cheers,
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:00 am

steman wrote:
wingman wrote:
steman wrote:
It´s about time! They finally realised they cannot depend on US Military hardware forever...


It's been tough depending on those US-built Rafales, Typhoons and older Mirages and Jaguars all these years!


Very funny :-)
But what I mean is that they need to start developing the next fighter now if they want to be able to replace Tornados and Mirages 2000s (as well as Typhoons and Raffles) with something home built rather than buying from the US and lose the know how to make advanced military designs. And let´s not forget the hundreds of F-104s, F-4s, F-16s, F-18s and in the futures F-35s that equipped most air forces in Western Europe over several decades.

The main issue will be 1. development costs, and 2. getting a large enough procurement number to make 1 worthwhile.

We've seen significant cost growth and development times for any all new fighter programs in the world. Simply, it is costing way more and taking much longer to develop an all new design and bring it into service.

Now, the only way to make high development costs much more reasonable is to get a large number of aircraft procured to spread the costs of development. That there is the problem.

Based on a potential 1:1 replacement of the French Mirage 2000 and German Tornado fleet, you are talking about 240 aircraft. Add in the Rafale and Eurofighter fleet, you are looking at around 500 aircraft. But, as we all know, it is highly unlikely that both the Germans and the French will replace their fighter fleet 1:1, as force numbers have continuously decreased over time for the past 60 years.

With a fairly low procurement number, such a program would have a fairly high per unit cost assuming a fairly efficient production methodology. But I even doubt that, as seen by the Eurofighter situation where aircraft are being assembled across 4 different factories for each user. I would imagine the French would demand local production for their aircraft, and the Germans might do so as well. Coupled with budgetary issues, and you might see significant cuts in planned procurement numbers, or procurement is dragged out for many years, leading to inefficient production.

In any case, this will be a very expensive aircraft, unless the design is a derivative of an existing design.

Based upon what I'm seeing, this is what I expect will happen:
1. The British won't join. Their needs are being met by their participation in the F-35 program
2. Italy won't join as well. They are an F-35 partner nation, and have the benefit of being the European final assembly location
3. The Spanish won't join either. They are much more of an F-35 customer as they need a STOVL fighter to operate from their carrier
4. The Dutch are committed to F-35, so no dice there
5. Portugal doesn't seem ready to join in, but they have a history of buying American fighters, so they would likely go F-35 as well
6. Poland has expressed interest in the F-35 as a future combat aircraft, so they won't join in
7. The Israeli's are committed to buying American, so more F-35's for them
 
VSMUT
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:55 am

ThePointblank wrote:
Based upon what I'm seeing, this is what I expect will happen:
1. The British won't join. Their needs are being met by their participation in the F-35 program
2. Italy won't join as well. They are an F-35 partner nation, and have the benefit of being the European final assembly location
3. The Spanish won't join either. They are much more of an F-35 customer as they need a STOVL fighter to operate from their carrier
4. The Dutch are committed to F-35, so no dice there
5. Portugal doesn't seem ready to join in, but they have a history of buying American fighters, so they would likely go F-35 as well
6. Poland has expressed interest in the F-35 as a future combat aircraft, so they won't join in
7. The Israeli's are committed to buying American, so more F-35's for them


2. The Italians have proven time and again that they will do anything to join the next upcoming program and ditch the former one. Sounds like bad news to the F-35 if you ask me. The F-35 FAL in Italy is guaranteed anyway, so they have nothing to lose.

3. Spain has a single small carrier that could field perhaps 6 F-35s. Spain isn't going to decide its future needs for upwards of 200 jets based on 6 aircraft for the navy.

5. I call BS on that claim. They went for F-16s because that was the best fighter for their needs at the time, not because of some sort of preference towards US products. Anyway, by the time they are ready for new fighters, the F-35 will be long out of production.
 
bunumuring
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:13 am

Hey guys,
I guess if one European nation - Sweden - can 'go it alone' with designing, developing, putting into service and exporting an indigenous design, surely France and Germany combined can do it too. Yes I recognise that the Gripen may be much smaller and less sophisticated than whatever may eventuate from this potential Franco-German initiative but we are talking two larger countries with an arguably stronger aerospace industry in each than Sweden's. France has played the long game with Rafale exports and has, as I understand, a developmental roadmap for the aircraft moving forward over the next decade or so. The political will to take on the proposed Franco-German combat aircraft project would certainly be there on the French side - Germany however, I am not so sure.
Cheers,
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
VSMUT
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:26 am

bunumuring wrote:
Hey guys,
I guess if one European nation - Sweden - can 'go it alone' with designing, developing, putting into service and exporting an indigenous design, surely France and Germany combined can do it too.


Don't forget that France did it even more alone with the Rafale, and quite successfully too. Development costs were a fraction of the Eurofighter, and ignoring of delays due to financial difficulties (defence budget cuts) and the fall of the wall, extremely fast too. They started their own project in 1985, and had the first prototype flying in 1986. First prototype production models flew in 1991, and first production series aircraft started production in 1992. If it hadn't been for a few dormant years, EIS would have been in 1996, just 11 years after they began the project.


bunumuring wrote:
- Germany however, I am not so sure.


Germany started this project, and it is the Germans who got the French onto the wagon.
 
smithbs
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:26 am

I doubt the British would join in at this time. A lot of its relationship with the Continent is being unraveled by Brexit - for example, their status in the European Atomic Energy Community. It sounds like the British government hardly knows up from down at this stage of the game, and they'd have to put a lot of careful thought into their future defense relationships before making a decision. And they seem too confused right now to do that. UNLESS they used their participation in this program to re-forge their relationship with the French and German defense industrial complex.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:59 am

VSMUT wrote:
2. The Italians have proven time and again that they will do anything to join the next upcoming program and ditch the former one. Sounds like bad news to the F-35 if you ask me. The F-35 FAL in Italy is guaranteed anyway, so they have nothing to lose.

3. Spain has a single small carrier that could field perhaps 6 F-35s. Spain isn't going to decide its future needs for upwards of 200 jets based on 6 aircraft for the navy.

5. I call BS on that claim. They went for F-16s because that was the best fighter for their needs at the time, not because of some sort of preference towards US products. Anyway, by the time they are ready for new fighters, the F-35 will be long out of production.

1. The Italian workshare is contingent on Italy's continued participation in the F-35 program. Not only is Italy assembling F-35's, they are also supplying components for every F-35 built in the world. If Italy pulls out, that workshare disappears.

2. The Spanish operate 13 AV-8B's, and the Juan Carlos I can technically fit a dozen AV-8B's or F-35B's. The Spanish Air Force also operates a fleet of F/A-18 Hornets as well, and there are more F/A-18's in Spain's inventory than there will ever be Eurofighters.

3. The Portuguese have operated A-7 Corsair II's prior to the introduction of the F-16, and the Portuguese Air Force has extensive links with the USAF, with the USAF leasing Lajes AB. The F-16 purchase was in part, was payment for the US lease of the base under the Peace Atlantis I program. Additional F-16's arrived when the US released a number of ex USAF aircraft as Excess Defense Articles free of charge.

And according to the current procurement schedule based upon current procurement numbers, F-35's will be manufactured right up until 2035... probably longer if more export orders comes in, or procurement numbers goes up.
 
Ozair
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:13 am

VSMUT wrote:

Don't forget that France did it even more alone with the Rafale, and quite successfully too. Development costs were a fraction of the Eurofighter, and ignoring of delays due to financial difficulties (defence budget cuts) and the fall of the wall, extremely fast too.

Not sure where you got that wild claim from but it is most certainly not true, unless you consider a fraction of as being 90%.

Eurofighter dev costs are approximately Euro 22 billion. Figures are taken from here http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Feurofighter.airpower.at%2Ffaq.htm&langpair=de|en&hl=de&ie=UTF-8

and here https://books.google.com.au/books?id=2sQwBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA231&lpg=PA231&dq=Rafale+total+development+costs&source=bl&ots=foaA6eDhX4&sig=wq-xCFr0rGkU6ESeMbYxY_HxUZI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwizzZjTp4nNAhVBI5QKHfobCEIQ6AEIVzAL#v=onepage&q=Rafale%20total%20development%20costs&f=false

I don't believe the above figures includes all Tranche 3 costs but I'm sure someone can let us know how much that is so far.

Rafale total development costs to get to F3 is close to Euro 20 billion which given it covers both land and carrier based airframes is not bad. Figures are harder to come by but rough can be calculated here, https://translate.google.com.au/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.senat.fr%2Frap%2Fa13-158-8%2Fa13-158-813.html%23toc178&edit-text=&act=url
Here, https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/french-funding-dispute-over-export-rafale-is-resolved-125712/

and here https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/french-funding-dispute-over-export-rafale-is-resolved-125712/

and again here, https://books.google.com.au/books?id=2sQwBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA231&lpg=PA231&dq=Rafale+total+development+costs&source=bl&ots=foaA6eDhX4&sig=wq-xCFr0rGkU6ESeMbYxY_HxUZI&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwizzZjTp4nNAhVBI5QKHfobCEIQ6AEIVzAL#v=onepage&q=Rafale%20total%20development%20costs&f=false

The last link above indicates total Rafale dev cost was ten percent less than Eurofighter. The saving grace for Rafale is that industry paid 25% of initial dev costs although nothing for subsequent F2 and F3. Looking back at the lack of exports and reduced domestic orders that is probably seen as a poor investment.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:42 am

ThePointblank wrote:
1. The Italian workshare is contingent on Italy's continued participation in the F-35 program. Not only is Italy assembling F-35's, they are also supplying components for every F-35 built in the world. If Italy pulls out, that workshare disappears.


LM sold F-35s in Europe on the promise that they would also be assembled here. LM isn't willing to uproot the Italian FAL after massive investments.

ThePointblank wrote:
2. The Spanish operate 13 AV-8B's, and the Juan Carlos I can technically fit a dozen AV-8B's or F-35B's. The Spanish Air Force also operates a fleet of F/A-18 Hornets as well, and there are more F/A-18's in Spain's inventory than there will ever be Eurofighters.


Based on the typical reduction in numbers, 6 F-35Bs is all you will ever see in Spain. I don't see what the F/A-18 has anything to with that, the Juan Carlos can't operate F/A-18s.

ThePointblank wrote:
3. The Portuguese have operated A-7 Corsair II's prior to the introduction of the F-16, and the Portuguese Air Force has extensive links with the USAF, with the USAF leasing Lajes AB. The F-16 purchase was in part, was payment for the US lease of the base under the Peace Atlantis I program. Additional F-16's arrived when the US released a number of ex USAF aircraft as Excess Defense Articles free of charge.


And prior to the F-16s they had Fiat G.91s. They have an extensive fleet of European helicopters, maritime patrol and transport planes from Airbus and trainers from France. Your point is?

ThePointblank wrote:
And according to the current procurement schedule based upon current procurement numbers, F-35's will be manufactured right up until 2035... probably longer if more export orders comes in, or procurement numbers goes up.


Keep dreaming. They are already about 20% of the way through the entire production run, and they haven't even made it to full scale production. The F-35 production run will be over in less than 10 years.
 
Ozair
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:12 am

VSMUT wrote:
Keep dreaming. They are already about 20% of the way through the entire production run, and they haven't even made it to full scale production. The F-35 production run will be over in less than 10 years.

You know you can look these things up before posting inaccurate information... Wiki (from LM data released in April 2017) lists 231 F-35 so far manufactured. That is less than 10% of the total US order, 2440, let alone the additional orders from 11 other nations.

As for future production rate, the USAF is planning, as per the 2016 SAR available here on page 39, https://fas.org/man/eprint/F35-sar-2016.pdf to acquire 80 F-35A a year from 2022 all the way to 2037.
 
GDB
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:54 pm

The Anglo-French UCAV development project is still going ahead, regardless of the UK's act of self harm last year and it's inept government making this even worse.
It's had high level political support and funding since then.
 
steman
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:15 am

VSMUT wrote:

2. The Italians have proven time and again that they will do anything to join the next upcoming program and ditch the former one. Sounds like bad news to the F-35 if you ask me. The F-35 FAL in Italy is guaranteed anyway, so they have nothing to lose.


What does this exactly mean? When have the Italians proved such thing?

As for Portugal, they mostly buy used planes and they´re a small Nation with a small aerospace industry. I doubt they will be considered as partners in the development of a new generation multi role fighter.
 
Noshow
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:51 am

This project is not about some Tornado follow on (or F-35 rival) but about what comes next after the Eurofighter and Rafale air defence variants. So more of a fighter and less of a bomber. Actually Germany might end up buying some F-35 by itself for some special role...This would not affect the franco german project. They need something to keep their engineers busy and capable.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:48 am

Noshow wrote:
This project is not about some Tornado follow on (or F-35 rival) but about what comes next after the Eurofighter and Rafale air defence variants. So more of a fighter and less of a bomber. Actually Germany might end up buying some F-35 by itself for some special role...This would not affect the franco german project. They need something to keep their engineers busy and capable.

What bothers me about your idea is that EF & Rafale are quite new. Yes, they were created in the '80's but went into service only recently. Some weapons are not even fully integrated yet.
Additionally, both were created as multi-role-fighters. As it turns out, they are much better in their fighter role than as bombers or for ECM & intel missions (no proper equipment yet), which is why both Tornado and Mirage are still in service. If the new project cannot decide whether a fighter or a bomber is wanted, we may end up with a similar fiasco. The US separated that quite well between F-22 & F-35 (in addition to their heavy bombers). This is why the F-35 is not a good fit as fighter and I would personally advise against replacing the EF with F-35s.
If no proper mission is defined beforehand, I expect 20 years of moving back and forth discussing where to place the emphasis on and possibly even splitting up again because they cannot agree, like they did with Eurofighter & Rafale. A stealth bomber (similar to the F-35, Tornado successor) would complement their existing fleets nicely and would not need to be compromised to replace their air superiority fighters too.
 
Noshow
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:02 pm

If they should feel any need for some stealth bomber they could buy some stock F-35. Highly unlikely that they develop another Euro-F-35 on top.
I'm not talking about what I want or not but what is likely to happen.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:33 pm

Noshow wrote:
If they should feel any need for some stealth bomber they could buy some stock F-35. Highly unlikely that they develop another Euro-F-35 on top.
I'm not talking about what I want or not but what is likely to happen.

But they don't want F-35's. It has been my impression that they want something similar to the F-35 in its mission profile but made and developed in Europe. This is not just a military project but also one to help European employees, maintain knowhow and keep the respective companies busy.
 
Noshow
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Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Mon Jul 17, 2017 1:14 pm

No, this project is aiming in a different direction that I described above. Actually it is a package of several cooperation-projects not only an aircraft.

Here is a picture:
http://www.flugrevue.de/militaerluftfah ... eug/729132
 
Andre3K
Posts: 73
Joined: Tue May 30, 2017 10:11 pm

Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:10 pm

Ozair wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Keep dreaming. They are already about 20% of the way through the entire production run, and they haven't even made it to full scale production. The F-35 production run will be over in less than 10 years.

You know you can look these things up before posting inaccurate information... Wiki (from LM data released in April 2017) lists 231 F-35 so far manufactured. That is less than 10% of the total US order, 2440, let alone the additional orders from 11 other nations.

As for future production rate, the USAF is planning, as per the 2016 SAR available here on page 39, https://fas.org/man/eprint/F35-sar-2016.pdf to acquire 80 F-35A a year from 2022 all the way to 2037.



Since I actually work at Lockheed on said program I figured i'd pipe in.

The numbers you get for F-35's manufactured are ones that are DD250'd. This does not include the 40+ that are in work just inside the Ft. Worth factory or the 10-20 that are on the flight line at any given time.

And for certain it's not including the 30+ centerwings that are in various stages here at Marietta.

So if you were to take all that into consideration, there are far more than 231 F-35's "manufactured".
 
Ozair
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:39 pm

Andre3K wrote:

Since I actually work at Lockheed on said program I figured i'd pipe in.

The numbers you get for F-35's manufactured are ones that are DD250'd. This does not include the 40+ that are in work just inside the Ft. Worth factory or the 10-20 that are on the flight line at any given time.

And for certain it's not including the 30+ centerwings that are in various stages here at Marietta.

So if you were to take all that into consideration, there are far more than 231 F-35's "manufactured".

Sure, perhaps a better metric would be F-35s delivered to customers? The 231 number I provided was LM released data in April 2017 and probably does indicate delivered to customer airframes. Not sure but it may have also included the 20 odd used in the SDD program. Would be keen for you to confirm a publicly available up to date number for customer delivered airframes.

Either way, the assertion that the F-35 is 20% of the way through its production is false and the assertion that production will end in less than 10 years is clearly inaccurate given the primary customer is currently planning to receive airframes all the way to 2037.
 
Andre3K
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:47 am

Ozair wrote:
Sure, perhaps a better metric would be F-35s delivered to customers? The 231 number I provided was LM released data in April 2017 and probably does indicate delivered to customer airframes. Not sure but it may have also included the 20 odd used in the SDD program. Would be keen for you to confirm a publicly available up to date number for customer delivered airframes.

Either way, the assertion that the F-35 is 20% of the way through its production is false and the assertion that production will end in less than 10 years is clearly inaccurate given the primary customer is currently planning to receive airframes all the way to 2037.



I don't think it's a secret or anything but I still like to air on the side of caution. That being said, you would be surprised at how little we are given updates on the status of deliveries. Right now here the focus is the ramp up. I can say this, we are supposed to jump up by roughly 40 ships a year next year. Needless to say even the higher rate we are at right now is a challenge.

It does get confusing sometimes because we hear the public numbers for deliveries for a particular year (from Ft. Worth) yet we deliver like 10-15 more centerwings then they deliver aircraft. The difference in when we start making the part, to the time it's required is a pretty big span.

As far as the 10 year production run, all I can say is LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: After 10 year's we'll be lucky to have 1,500 out the door.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:18 am

Andre3K wrote:

I don't think it's a secret or anything but I still like to air on the side of caution. That being said, you would be surprised at how little we are given updates on the status of deliveries. Right now here the focus is the ramp up. I can say this, we are supposed to jump up by roughly 40 ships a year next year. Needless to say even the higher rate we are at right now is a challenge.

It does get confusing sometimes because we hear the public numbers for deliveries for a particular year (from Ft. Worth) yet we deliver like 10-15 more centerwings then they deliver aircraft. The difference in when we start making the part, to the time it's required is a pretty big span.

As far as the 10 year production run, all I can say is LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: After 10 year's we'll be lucky to have 1,500 out the door.

1. Don't forget the F-35 is being made across 3 FAL's, one in Ft. Worth, one in Nagoya, and the one in Cameri.

2. The US and allied nations have built more than 4,000 F-16's since 1974. The F-35 is designed to replace the F-16 across many users, and there are lots more potential F-35 customers out there that have signaled some interest in the F-35.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:12 pm

Why talk about the F-35? The French and Germans want to stay in the game :D

Image
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
petertenthije
Posts: 3392
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 10:00 pm

Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:24 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
2. The US and allied nations have built more than 4,000 F-16's since 1974. The F-35 is designed to replace the F-16 across many users, and there are lots more potential F-35 customers out there that have signaled some interest in the F-35.
That still does not mean the JSF will get even close to the numbers of the F16. The F16 benefited from the cold war. Most air forces have shrunk to a third or a quarter of their size when the F16 was introduced.

For instance, in 1991 the RNLAF had 181 F16s. Nowadays only 60odd F16s are left, and a good part of them are not even operational. They have budgeted for 37 JSFs, but hope to get more, in the future... however, getting the budgets for more is always an uphill struggle.
Attamottamotta!
 
aviationaware
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:40 pm

Olddog wrote:
If Merkel wins the next election I presume.


That's not an if, it's only a question of who she will form a coalition with. There is no chance Merkel will lose the office even if hell freezes over.
 
Andre3K
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:07 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
1. Don't forget the F-35 is being made across 3 FAL's, one in Ft. Worth, one in Nagoya, and the one in Cameri.

2. The US and allied nations have built more than 4,000 F-16's since 1974. The F-35 is designed to replace the F-16 across many users, and there are lots more potential F-35 customers out there that have signaled some interest in the F-35.


I am aware of those, but they have nowhere near the rate capacity that we do. Together they might make 250 total over the next 20ish years. We are going to get up over 120 a year somewere down the road.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:57 am

Ozair wrote:
That is less than 10% of the total US order, 2440, let alone the additional orders from 11 other nations.


Lol. The US will end up with around 1000 tops, add in a few hundred for export. Even 1500 in total is optimistic. Thanks to budget deficits and high prices, US can't afford that many, and is increasingly coming to the conclusion that they are placing too many eggs in one basket. The current plans haven't taken the state of the rest of the military into consideration. The Pentagon will need to develop a new main battle tank, armoured personnel carrier and infantry fighting vehicle for the army, and the Marines will need new amphibious vehicles too. The Navy needs a new frigate because of the failed LCS program, and still hasn't gotten round to developing a replacement for the Ticonderoga class cruisers. They also need to find funding for 12 Columbia class SSBNs, plus the 36 Virginia class SSNs to replace the old 688s. The CH-53K and the new Ford class carriers are bleeding money left right and center.

The administrations plans for 100+ Block III Super Hornets well under way, and the Super Hornet program has already been trundling steadily away with a budget allotment of 14 this year.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/ ... ornet.aspx
http://breakingdefense.com/2017/04/boei ... -stackley/
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-bu ... come-21282

The USAF is going to extend the service lives of 841 aircraft F-16s through the SLEP program, allowing them to serve until 2048.
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity ... e&_cview=0

In the long term, the F-35 potential is capped by the looming F/A-XX and now the new European jet.

Just subtracting the 950 F-16s and Advanced Super Hornets gives you a combined US purchase of just 1490, and that doesn't even take into consideration the almost guaranteed upgrades to the existing Super Hornet fleet (350 aircraft), additional orders for new aircraft (Boeing suggests about 80 on top of the 100) and the inevitable cuts that the F-35 will also suffer, you are already down to 1000.
 
Ozair
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:26 pm

VSMUT wrote:

Lol. The US will end up with around 1000 tops, add in a few hundred for export.

Why don't you repost in the thread I just created on the latest F-35 SAR. Seems a more appropriate place to discuss your thoughts on F-35 procurement.
 
columba
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:28 am

I believe it will be a F-4 Phantom scenario for Germany again. Buying a handful F35s as a interim solution and for their nuclear share until the new fighter is ready....
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:57 am

columba wrote:
I believe it will be a F-4 Phantom scenario for Germany again. Buying a handful F35s as a interim solution and for their nuclear share until the new fighter is ready....


Could be, if they are just starting to think about the Tornado replacement, then the Tornado will be 65 when they retire. The Tornado first flew in 1974 (!).
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Ozair
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:28 am

columba wrote:
I believe it will be a F-4 Phantom scenario for Germany again. Buying a handful F35s as a interim solution and for their nuclear share until the new fighter is ready....

If an interim replacement for the Tornado is required wouldn't it make more sense to order additional Eurofighters instead of introducing a whole new type?
 
columba
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:13 am

Ozair wrote:
columba wrote:
I believe it will be a F-4 Phantom scenario for Germany again. Buying a handful F35s as a interim solution and for their nuclear share until the new fighter is ready....

If an interim replacement for the Tornado is required wouldn't it make more sense to order additional Eurofighters instead of introducing a whole new type?

For the nuclear role yes the Eurofighter is and will not be certified for that
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Ozair
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Re: Spiegel: Germany, France to develop new combat plane

Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:11 pm

columba wrote:
Ozair wrote:
columba wrote:
I believe it will be a F-4 Phantom scenario for Germany again. Buying a handful F35s as a interim solution and for their nuclear share until the new fighter is ready....

If an interim replacement for the Tornado is required wouldn't it make more sense to order additional Eurofighters instead of introducing a whole new type?

For the nuclear role yes the Eurofighter is and will not be certified for that

So if the nuclear role is necessary going forward how long does a potential F-35 have to stay in German Service? I'm skeptical that the US would approve nuclear weapons integration on a French/German airframe, especially if the Germans already had F-35s.

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