Oroka
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:02 pm

QuarkFly wrote:
=The desire to push boundaries and live in space is understandable, but people ignore the day-to-day realities and human nature...Mars would be a lousy place to live and work -- and after the novelty of getting there wears off, people will dislike it and want to leave. Humans first walked on the Moon almost 50 years ago...how many humans live there now? Same for Mars and other planets. They will stay devoid of permanent human settlement, Nobody wants to live, struggling to survive, on a boring dead planet for no good reason...


Why did humanity explore the ocean? Because it is what we do, explore and expand. We found land, and primitive peoples, and at first, nothing much actually worth the risk. Dangerous voyage, cold, death, starvation, hostile indigenous peoples. No profit. Just pride, being able to say they expanded their territory. And people kept going, knowing there was risk of not even making it there. No one wants to failure, but failure is always an option. No one is willing to risk in lives any more, but that is the one resource we have in an over abundance.

This is a world of bubble wrapped special snowflakes and old school corporations extracting money from the world to line the pockets of the ultra wealthy. Life is hard, and the millennials have never seen struggle. They got consultation prizes when they failed and protected when 'bullys' say mean things. Are we going to send safe spaces with them to Mars?

Then you have the corporations. Why innovate and make your product cheaper and more accessible when you can over engineer the same thing and extract more and more money from the government? ULA just dropped launch prices from $164M to under $100M because they have to compete now (so the last 70 launch contract cost an extra $4.5B). But SpaceX is already at $64M per launch... that is $100M less than ULA a few years ago. And when SpaceX can start regularly reusing rockets... should drop to around $42M. So it is very well within the US Governments interest to fund SpaceX. Even if you roll in the money he got from federal and state sources for all his ventures (about $4.9B), that is just the extra cream off the top for what ULA was charging. Even with the $64m per launch saved by ULA dropping prices, using SpaceX still saves the government $36M per launch. So for the US in the future, cost of launching satellites will have dropped 61%. Sounds like money well spent to me. And dont think that Boeing and Lockheed funded the development of the Delta V from their own pockets.

Musk dreams big, and has a good track record of making it happen. Have you looked at his phase 1 plan for tesla from 10 years ago? He posted it 10 years ago, and made it happen. He has phase 2 posted. He is not hiding anything, he just isnt playing by the old rules, and that is scary for old school people. People joke... oh Elon is out learning to dig holes... yeah so he can do it efficiently and in a cost effective manner so he can bury the hyperloop because going above ground would be too expensive. might cost more now, and there will be bumps, but in the future it will make things cheaper. He could contract out for batteries... or invest in his own, and sell batteries to everyone else.

Yes I am a fan of Musk, because he does things the way I want to. Dont do something that way because that is how it was always done... that kills innovation. Be creative, do things different, change the world for the better, make money. All those statements are 100% true.
 
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KarelXWB
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:40 pm

Regarding the Mars climate:

https://phys.org/news/2017-03-nasa-magn ... phere.html

One of the more intriguing presentations took place on Wednesday, March 1st, where the exploration of Mars by human astronauts was discussed. In the course of the talk, which was titled "A Future Mars Environment for Science and Exploration", Director Jim Green discussed how deploying a magnetic shield could enhance Mars' atmosphere and facilitate crewed missions there in the future.

...
This server is powered by a lemon and two electrodes.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:52 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Regarding the Mars climate:

https://phys.org/news/2017-03-nasa-magn ... phere.html

One of the more intriguing presentations took place on Wednesday, March 1st, where the exploration of Mars by human astronauts was discussed. In the course of the talk, which was titled "A Future Mars Environment for Science and Exploration", Director Jim Green discussed how deploying a magnetic shield could enhance Mars' atmosphere and facilitate crewed missions there in the future.

...

What kind of object/device could they use to deflect the solar wind? A medium sized asteroid or some kind of plasma-casting device?
Eat 'em up Kats!
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Tue Mar 07, 2017 6:51 am

You don't need an asteroid, you need a magnetic field. Power source + some kind of coil. Not sure exactly how large the coil has to be, the magnetic field can be larger than the physical object generating it.

The talk didn't include any details on how to do this, but it would be an interesting exercise to design one. Would also be useful if the earth for some reason decided to lose its natural magnetic field....
 
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QuarkFly
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:09 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Regarding the Mars climate:

https://phys.org/news/2017-03-nasa-magn ... phere.html

One of the more intriguing presentations took place on Wednesday, March 1st, where the exploration of Mars by human astronauts was discussed. In the course of the talk, which was titled "A Future Mars Environment for Science and Exploration", Director Jim Green discussed how deploying a magnetic shield could enhance Mars' atmosphere and facilitate crewed missions there in the future.

...


Interesting idea...but a bit late. The Mars atmosphere and oceans are are already gone. Some magnetic protection at Mars L1... "fanciful" is an understatement, inflatable Magnet(s) the size of a planet? -- Anyhow, will not bring back flowing water or air. As for radiation protection, would be much cheaper to just shield any shelter on Mars.

This isn't like Schwarzenegger in Total Recall...Mars can't be great again !!
Always take the Red Eye if possible
 
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moo
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Tue Mar 07, 2017 11:01 am

Oroka wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
=The desire to push boundaries and live in space is understandable, but people ignore the day-to-day realities and human nature...Mars would be a lousy place to live and work -- and after the novelty of getting there wears off, people will dislike it and want to leave. Humans first walked on the Moon almost 50 years ago...how many humans live there now? Same for Mars and other planets. They will stay devoid of permanent human settlement, Nobody wants to live, struggling to survive, on a boring dead planet for no good reason...


Why did humanity explore the ocean? Because it is what we do, explore and expand. We found land, and primitive peoples, and at first, nothing much actually worth the risk. Dangerous voyage, cold, death, starvation, hostile indigenous peoples. No profit. Just pride, being able to say they expanded their territory.


Uh, the prime driver of the exploration of our planet has basically always been profit - better lands to grow crops and live on, more land to sell to colonists and expand taxation on etc etc. Pretty much all of the famous explorers of the 14th, 15th and 16th centuries did it because their respective governments paid extremely well. Take Christopher Columbus for example:

In the April 1492 "Capitulations of Santa Fe", King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella promised Columbus that if he succeeded he would be given the rank of Admiral of the Ocean Sea and appointed Viceroy and Governor of all the new lands he could claim for Spain. He had the right to nominate three persons, from whom the sovereigns would choose one, for any office in the new lands. He would be entitled to 10 percent of all the revenues from the new lands in perpetuity. Additionally, he would also have the option of buying one-eighth interest in any commercial venture with the new lands and receive one-eighth of the profits.


Thats a *huge* agreement.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 98
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:17 pm

moo wrote:
Oroka wrote:
QuarkFly wrote:
=The desire to push boundaries and live in space is understandable, but people ignore the day-to-day realities and human nature...Mars would be a lousy place to live and work -- and after the novelty of getting there wears off, people will dislike it and want to leave. Humans first walked on the Moon almost 50 years ago...how many humans live there now? Same for Mars and other planets. They will stay devoid of permanent human settlement, Nobody wants to live, struggling to survive, on a boring dead planet for no good reason...


Why did humanity explore the ocean? Because it is what we do, explore and expand. We found land, and primitive peoples, and at first, nothing much actually worth the risk. Dangerous voyage, cold, death, starvation, hostile indigenous peoples. No profit. Just pride, being able to say they expanded their territory.


Uh, the prime driver of the exploration of our planet has basically always been profit - better lands to grow crops and live on, more land to sell to colonists and expand taxation on etc etc. Pretty much all of the famous explorers of the 14th, 15th and 16th centuries did it because their respective governments paid extremely well. Take Christopher Columbus for example:

In the April 1492 "Capitulations of Santa Fe", King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella promised Columbus that if he succeeded he would be given the rank of Admiral of the Ocean Sea and appointed Viceroy and Governor of all the new lands he could claim for Spain. He had the right to nominate three persons, from whom the sovereigns would choose one, for any office in the new lands. He would be entitled to 10 percent of all the revenues from the new lands in perpetuity. Additionally, he would also have the option of buying one-eighth interest in any commercial venture with the new lands and receive one-eighth of the profits.


Thats a *huge* agreement.

But Columbus took on a huge risk. There was no guearantee that "India" would be as close as it eventually was, that he and his ship would manage to endure the journey, that his crew would not riot in spite of an uncertaint future,... History books are filled with failures and deaths. Few people today would fly to mars or anywhere else for the mere promise of 10% profit share, even though the proper exploitation of resources may make you a billionaire.

One other point to consider: Much progress and many settlements were created by prisoners whose sentence was to be moved overseas or to serve in the navy. Young prisoners sentenced to life without parole may cost the taxpayer as much as $2 mio, whereas the death penalty can add up to over $3 mio per convict. Given the alternative of sending them to mars for $200.000 - $600.000 - the cost Elon Musk wants to achieve - it would seem a much easier solution. Whether prisoners would choose a free and self-dependent life on mars, including all necessary equipment, over a life-long imprisoning is debatable. It is also questionable if these convicts are sufficiently mentally stable to create a colony and start a new life by themselves.
 
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moo
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:51 pm

mxaxai wrote:
But Columbus took on a huge risk. There was no guearantee that "India" would be as close as it eventually was, that he and his ship would manage to endure the journey, that his crew would not riot in spite of an uncertaint future,... History books are filled with failures and deaths. Few people today would fly to mars or anywhere else for the mere promise of 10% profit share, even though the proper exploitation of resources may make you a billionaire.


Your point is? He still did it with a massive motivational factor of a fantastic fortune. And if you could land on Mars, claim something the size of the continental United States and then sell farmsteads for the rest of your life to reap your 10%, thats a *hell* of a lot of money as well, and its exactly what Columbus was doing.

One other point to consider: Much progress and many settlements were created by prisoners whose sentence was to be moved overseas or to serve in the navy. Young prisoners sentenced to life without parole may cost the taxpayer as much as $2 mio, whereas the death penalty can add up to over $3 mio per convict. Given the alternative of sending them to mars for $200.000 - $600.000 - the cost Elon Musk wants to achieve - it would seem a much easier solution. Whether prisoners would choose a free and self-dependent life on mars, including all necessary equipment, over a life-long imprisoning is debatable. It is also questionable if these convicts are sufficiently mentally stable to create a colony and start a new life by themselves.


Thats not comparable since we have a significant amount of automation today - why send 1000 navvies to build your towns and toil in fields when you can send a tractor and do the same amount of work for much less ongoing maintenance...
 
mxaxai
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:02 pm

It is one thing to be promised a huge reward and another to actually live to recieve it. My point being obviously that if no one will take the risk it may be prudent to make some people an offer they can't refuse.

Mars is signifanctly larger than the USA, has, as of now, nobody claiming ownership and could very likely be used for farming and mines. Using Musk's new rocket, the trip can become affordable for many people. So what is stopping them?

Automation is all nice and stuff, but no tractor runs without maintenance performed by humans. I am sure farmers would love maintenance-free equipment.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:54 am

It was very risky when Columbus and other explorers went out 3-4-500 years ago. They didn't know what they would find, and thousands of things could go wrong.

Colonizing Mars isn't risky the same way. We know everything already. Landscape, atmosphere, climate, gravity, radiation, duration of commuting etc. From forty years of robotic exploration we know exactly what we have to deal with.

The only "risk" is that stupid engineers for economic or other reasons make shortcuts and don't build in reasonable redundancies to make the whole system reliable. That's how the Moon landings were done, but then we had great luck and happened to avoid catastrophes worse than Apollo 1.

The biggest obstacle will likely be that boredom will make at least some of the Mars travelers go crazy in their head well before arrival. But that's not a risk. That's an obstacle which we know that we have to handle somehow. We normally put such persons into a hospital and strap them down or lock them up in a rubber cell. We must prepare accordingly.

Boredom will only be increased by the fact that the travelers know already before they start that there is no way they can do any new science. They are just dead and useless payload.

BTW, the other day I read in a newspaper a good way to minimize the latter challenge: Give all passengers a window seat.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
tommy1808
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Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:57 am

mxaxai wrote:
There are two things robots cannot do and will likely never be able to:
  • Repairing and modifying themselves


wrong. You are just a robot implemented in wetware. Highly advanced and optimized, but there is no real difference. There is nothing going on in your body or brain that can´t in principle be emulated.

  • Colonizing
    Wether humanity should do this is debatable, but living outside of the earth is - by definition - only possible for humans. Contrary to the ocean floor, other plantes CAN support human life themselves. Sure, you need adequate shelter and euqipment to provide water and air conditioning, but once that is provided a large enough group of humans can survive without constant support from earth.


  • Equally wrong for the same reason. In theory silicon based robots can do exactly what carbon based robots can do.

    best regards
    Thomas
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    QuarkFly
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    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:51 pm

    Another reason Elon Musk wants to colonize Mars -- Let's all run away from the AI robots...

    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03/ ... ai-space-x

    Would rather have Musk tell us more about progress on the Falcon Heavy...instead here's some of Elon's many anxieties and rants...

    "...Hassabis [an Artificial Intelligence 'creator'] replied that, in fact, he was working on the most important project in the world: developing artificial super-intelligence. Musk countered that this was one reason we needed to colonize Mars—so that we’ll have a bolt-hole if A.I. goes rogue and turns on humanity. Amused, Hassabis said that A.I. would simply follow humans to Mars....This did nothing to soothe Musk’s anxieties (even though he says there are scenarios where A.I. wouldn’t follow)..."

    ...Lots more paranoia in the above Vanity Fair Article...read it and be afraid enough to get your Mars ticket soon :(
    Always take the Red Eye if possible
     
    SCAT15F
    Posts: 573
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    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:27 am

    That's a good article but hardly paranoia, rather a healthy dose of reality for the bobble-heads in Silicon Valley.
     
    treetreeseven
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    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:26 am

    I like the fact that "wtf do we do when machines wake up" angst is becoming more and more common in entertainment these days. It's something we need to think about.
     
    WIederling
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    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:32 am

    treetreeseven wrote:
    I like the fact that "wtf do we do when machines wake up" angst is becoming more and more common in entertainment these days. It's something we need to think about.


    Zombies and such too.

    "Everybody is out to get us" angst in the US is rather well founded by historic and current activities.
    I don't see that this will lead to any reasonably way of solving the problem
    as the solution to meddling gone pear shaped is ladling on more meddling and preemptive "selfdefense".

    As if that would help.
    Murphy is an optimist
     
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    JetBuddy
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    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:08 pm

    I believe the right way to colonize Mars is to send the machines first. What we've done so far is just scratching the surface and mapping using small rovers.

    - First we need to launch communication satellites orbiting Mars, making sure that equipment on the ground always has a way to communicate, with each other and Earth.
    - Then we need to launch materials needed for building a suitable Mars base, including maybe 6 advanced 3D printers that can produce materials needed for construction and repairs. 6 printers because we will need at least 3 different variants and sizes, and the double amount for redundancy.
    - We need to build multiple construction machines that are the size of a Cat D12 dozer, that run on solar power, and that can mount auxiliary equipment. Drills, diggers, whatever needed for the job. They need to communicate with each other using AI, and they need to be able to learn from their mistakes and improve over time. Kind of like the Tesla fleet learning system. These need to be launched together with large amounts of spare parts.
    - We also need even more robots, something along the lines of what Boston Dynamics are making. They will be communicating with the larger machines and each other. They will use AI and learn as they go, and they need to be able to fix the larger machines. If you've paid attention to the evolution of AI lately, this should be possible in the near future.
    - These machines will build a base, including communication equipment, laying fiber cables, build green houses, habitats, minerals refineries, solar power plants, everything needed for humans to survive on Mars.
    - Launch humans.
     
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    Channex757
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    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:21 pm

    treetreeseven wrote:
    I like the fact that "wtf do we do when machines wake up" angst is becoming more and more common in entertainment these days. It's something we need to think about.

    It goes back to the points of failure arguments. Only by brainstorming these potential scenarios where failure happens can we expect to get safely into the deep future.

    I don't think it is wasteful or negative to start considering what would happens with runaway AI. The Asimov robotics rules for AI are a good start, but what happens when an AI becomes self-replicating and can rewrite its own code? It's something I really like about Elon Musk. he dreams big and deep, as well as coming up with novel solutions. If he's putting theories out there then I for one am listening and certainly not rubbishing what he has to say because he's a damned sight smarter than I'll ever be.
     
    Chaostheory
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    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:28 pm

    Channex757 wrote:
    treetreeseven wrote:
    I like the fact that "wtf do we do when machines wake up" angst is becoming more and more common in entertainment these days. It's something we need to think about.

    It goes back to the points of failure arguments. Only by brainstorming these potential scenarios where failure happens can we expect to get safely into the deep future.

    I don't think it is wasteful or negative to start considering what would happens with runaway AI. The Asimov robotics rules for AI are a good start, but what happens when an AI becomes self-replicating and can rewrite its own code? It's something I really like about Elon Musk. he dreams big and deep, as well as coming up with novel solutions. If he's putting theories out there then I for one am listening and certainly not rubbishing what he has to say because he's a damned sight smarter than I'll ever be.


    :checkmark:

    Whilst I love my motorcycles and manual tranny cars as much as the next bloke, AI is where the world is heading and Musk has to be commended for his work in this area.

    I recommend Asimov's The Dawn of Robots too. A fantastic read.
     
    Oroka
    Posts: 1083
    Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2006 4:37 am

    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:33 am

    JetBuddy wrote:
    I believe the right way to colonize Mars is to send the machines first. What we've done so far is just scratching the surface and mapping using small rovers.

    - First we need to launch communication satellites orbiting Mars, making sure that equipment on the ground always has a way to communicate, with each other and Earth.
    - Then we need to launch materials needed for building a suitable Mars base, including maybe 6 advanced 3D printers that can produce materials needed for construction and repairs. 6 printers because we will need at least 3 different variants and sizes, and the double amount for redundancy.
    - We need to build multiple construction machines that are the size of a Cat D12 dozer, that run on solar power, and that can mount auxiliary equipment. Drills, diggers, whatever needed for the job. They need to communicate with each other using AI, and they need to be able to learn from their mistakes and improve over time. Kind of like the Tesla fleet learning system. These need to be launched together with large amounts of spare parts.
    - We also need even more robots, something along the lines of what Boston Dynamics are making. They will be communicating with the larger machines and each other. They will use AI and learn as they go, and they need to be able to fix the larger machines. If you've paid attention to the evolution of AI lately, this should be possible in the near future.
    - These machines will build a base, including communication equipment, laying fiber cables, build green houses, habitats, minerals refineries, solar power plants, everything needed for humans to survive on Mars.
    - Launch humans.



    That is if you will not accept death of a person as acceptable. 1 skilled human is worth billions of dollars worth of the most advanced robots. 4-5 people with the proper tools, supplies, and materials can build a starter base, identify important potential minerals and ores, start a fuel supply, science, etc. Hauling heavy machinery to Mars will be extremely cost prohibitive. Best thing to do is bring a 3D printer that can be scaled to make larger items, source material on site, and build bigger and bigger gear as material stockpiles increase. Pretty much go camping on Mars and start a base with what you back pack in. Hard... yup, but that is where humans shine. Innovation, creativity, and survival.
     
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    neutrino
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    Re: Sorry Elon, You're Not Going to Colonize Planets

    Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:18 pm

    Chaostheory wrote:
    I recommend Asimov's The Dawn of Robots too. A fantastic read.

    The Robots of Dawn is the book you mean.
    I have read most of Asimov's SF and all of his robot stories.
    Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis

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