Updated: Germany selects F-35 and Eurofighter Typhoon for Tornado replacement

Planeflyer · Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:47 pm

WIederling wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
German policy is clear and well supported by many and maybe even most Germans; let’s not spend our money as long as the USA will.

This is more or less wrong.
With the up front example of the US spending to no end on allegedly defense outlay and creating and then aggravating a long line of global problems spending more on defense appears to be counter intuitive. ( Einstein: repeating the same action over and over and expecting a diifferent outcome is madness )

Planeflyer wrote:
German recalcitrance on

defense spending is a jus one small example of what I mean by competing interests that would lead to the next Europeon wide war.

Just like in the US there is a growing group of people with "Großmannssucht" in Europe. They forgot what war is like.

It is not arguable that German Defence Forces are anywhere near prepared for even a minuscule contest.

Now surely it is right and good to ask is US policy that is optimized around preparedness the correct course but I think the last 70 years especially in light of the previous 1000 years fairly answers the question.

Just look at all the places most impacted by us policy now vs 1945 and ask yourself the Reagan question; are you better off now vs then?

Back to the topic; the F35 is the definition of deterrence. Bad guys don’t attack your house when you can attack their leadership assets.

Ozair · Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:55 pm

An interesting looking concept, especially the images in the video.

Watch France and Germany's next generation stealth fighter, a two-engine jet that looks like it will outclass the F-35

The French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation recently published a video that gives a glimpse into what the reported Franco-German fifth generation aircraft might look like.

France and Germany announced in July 2017 that they would be joining forces to build an advanced “European” fighter to replace Dassault Aviation’s Rafales and Germany’s Eurofighter Typhoons, The War Zone reported last summer.

“As expected, 2-engine deltawing,” Sim Tack, chief military analyst at Force Analysis and Global Fellow at Strator, tweeted on Thursday about the new Dassault Aviation video, in which the conceptual fighter appears around minute 3:10.

“I think if they can pull it all off, this seems a legitimate candidate for a highly capable competitor to the F-35 and Su-57,” Tack messaged Business Insider.

Unlike the F-35, Dassault’s next generation fighter will supposedly have two engines and therefore much more thrust, Tack said.

“In terms of capabilities, the focus will probably be on stealth technology, and integration with information systems,” Tack said, such as “sharing information between aircraft, possibly commanding drones, etc.”

Tack added that it’s up for debate whether this aircraft would be a fifth or sixth generation fighter.

The Dassault fighter also doesn’t appear to have a vertical stabilizer, which will cut down on radar reflections from the side, giving it greater stealth capabilities, Tack said.

In any event, the next generation fighter will probably be under development for the next 20 years, Tack said.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/watc ... ?r=US&IR=T

Planeflyer · Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:51 pm

Europe’s best move would be to develop a 6 th gen ac. It’ll be 10-20 billion more and 5-10 years later but it will have a much better shot of success.

Better yet would be a cooperative effort w the USA on 6 th gen.

Slug71 · Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:49 am

Ozair wrote:
An interesting looking concept, especially the images in the video.

Watch France and Germany's next generation stealth fighter, a two-engine jet that looks like it will outclass the F-35

The French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation recently published a video that gives a glimpse into what the reported Franco-German fifth generation aircraft might look like.

France and Germany announced in July 2017 that they would be joining forces to build an advanced “European” fighter to replace Dassault Aviation’s Rafales and Germany’s Eurofighter Typhoons, The War Zone reported last summer.

“As expected, 2-engine deltawing,” Sim Tack, chief military analyst at Force Analysis and Global Fellow at Strator, tweeted on Thursday about the new Dassault Aviation video, in which the conceptual fighter appears around minute 3:10.

“I think if they can pull it all off, this seems a legitimate candidate for a highly capable competitor to the F-35 and Su-57,” Tack messaged Business Insider.

Unlike the F-35, Dassault’s next generation fighter will supposedly have two engines and therefore much more thrust, Tack said.

“In terms of capabilities, the focus will probably be on stealth technology, and integration with information systems,” Tack said, such as “sharing information between aircraft, possibly commanding drones, etc.”

Tack added that it’s up for debate whether this aircraft would be a fifth or sixth generation fighter.

The Dassault fighter also doesn’t appear to have a vertical stabilizer, which will cut down on radar reflections from the side, giving it greater stealth capabilities, Tack said.

In any event, the next generation fighter will probably be under development for the next 20 years, Tack said.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/watc ... ?r=US&IR=T

Very interesting design. Will be interesting to see how much different the final design will be. I wonder if this will become the Airbus FCAS too.

Ozair · Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:40 am

Slug71 wrote:

Very interesting design. Will be interesting to see how much different the final design will be. I wonder if this will become the Airbus FCAS too.

Well France notionally have been given the lead on the joint effort so that means Airbus toes the line on what Dassault will want to do but I think that level of detail and integration hasn't yet been fully agreed.
I expect an final design to be more traditional than the concept shown but there is approx 15 years between now and what may evolve from the joint venture so there could be some major changes in how aircraft operate. Clearly though even Dassault continue to believe that a future platform will have to be designed around stealth shaping characteristics if these concepts are anything to go by.

Slug71 · Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:54 am

Ozair wrote:
Slug71 wrote:

Very interesting design. Will be interesting to see how much different the final design will be. I wonder if this will become the Airbus FCAS too.

Well France notionally have been given the lead on the joint effort so that means Airbus toes the line on what Dassault will want to do but I think that level of detail and integration hasn't yet been fully agreed.
I expect an final design to be more traditional than the concept shown but there is approx 15 years between now and what may evolve from the joint venture so there could be some major changes in how aircraft operate. Clearly though even Dassault continue to believe that a future platform will have to be designed around stealth shaping characteristics if these concepts are anything to go by.

In that case it probably will be the same thing. I don't really see the justification for a separate Airbus/Dassault project TBH. And the SAAB/BAE project should be well under way too.

Planeflyer · Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:18 am

Holy smokes, imagine the ridicule Dassault will be hearing from certain members over a stealth design.

keesje · Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:45 am

French politics as we have seen over the last 40 years.. French company presenting it self as European (funding.), working towards being based in France and the french government coming in with Billion to secure leadership for the french participation. This video totally fits in there. I'm 99% sire this video presentation isn't coordinated and comes as a surprize for the German site. It is chess.

What's interesting the germans have learned their lessons, will probably invest most & won't get along. Meanwhile they don't want to corrupt the project by expensive, time wasting infights. Expect some strong signals / innitiative from that site soon. The french feel & launch this pre emptive..

glideslope · Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:33 pm

Ozair wrote:
Balerit wrote:

5th generation is a Lockheed marketing term and as far as I'm concerned the Gripen is even better than the F35 or F22, here is an interesting article:

The top tier air forces of the world disagree.

As for the article, it was rightly derided when Bill published it... There are multiple errors that some research and understanding of modern fighter technology could easily clarify.

Agreed. F-35 has zero chance with Germany.

Noray · Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:05 am

keesje wrote:
French politics as we have seen over the last 40 years.. French company presenting it self as European (funding.), working towards being based in France and the french government coming in with Billion to secure leadership for the french participation. This video totally fits in there. I'm 99% sire this video presentation isn't coordinated and comes as a surprize for the German site. It is chess.

What's interesting the germans have learned their lessons, will probably invest most & won't get along. Meanwhile they don't want to corrupt the project by expensive, time wasting infights. Expect some strong signals / innitiative from that site soon. The french feel & launch this pre emptive..

This could be a nice story if Germany and France hadn't already agreed that France will be the lead nation. Germany will lead other projects. This is a lesson from the A400M history.
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... ghter.html

Slug71 · Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:59 am

Noray wrote:
keesje wrote:
French politics as we have seen over the last 40 years.. French company presenting it self as European (funding.), working towards being based in France and the french government coming in with Billion to secure leadership for the french participation. This video totally fits in there. I'm 99% sire this video presentation isn't coordinated and comes as a surprize for the German site. It is chess.

What's interesting the germans have learned their lessons, will probably invest most & won't get along. Meanwhile they don't want to corrupt the project by expensive, time wasting infights. Expect some strong signals / innitiative from that site soon. The french feel & launch this pre emptive..

This could be a nice story if Germany and France hadn't already agreed that France will be the lead nation. Germany will lead other projects. This is a lesson from the A400M history.
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... ghter.html

But, as noted by Airbus DS CEO Dirk Hoke, “The schedule is tight, so we need to start working together immediately by defining a joint roadmap on how best to meet the requirements and timelines to be set by the two nations. It is therefore of key importance that France and Germany launch an initial joint study this year to address this task” -- which also is a reminder to the two governments to provide initial funding.

This schedule is indeed tight, as Dassault Aviation CEO Eric Trappier also observed: “Both companies fully intend to work together in the most pragmatic and efficient manner. Our joint roadmap will include proposals to develop demonstrators for the FCAS programme [from] 2025.

Which is why I think it wouldn't be a bad idea for Germany to replace the Tornados with Rafales.

keesje · Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:28 pm

It hadn't this latest statements. Positive it seems simplicity, focus. It seems lessons have been learned from previous projects.
2040 is very far away..

tommy1808 · Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:43 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Europe’s best move would be to develop a 6 th gen ac. It’ll be 10-20 billion more and 5-10 years later but it will have a much better shot of success.

the no-vertical stabilizer bit is pretty gen. 6ish

Better yet would be a cooperative effort w the USA on 6 th gen.

Not ever going to happen. Needing a US export licence for the Tornado because of US components was too much a pain during its export efforts. Other countries would do the same if they could, of course, but no EU made combat aircraft with export potential will depend on components that need an US export license. The Meteor and IRIS-T Missiles exist in part to enable offering Typhoons without AIM-120/Sidewinder export licences getting in the way.

On top of that, all of NATO flying a single type of aircraft, and effectively depending on it to work, is probably not a very good idea either.

best regards
Thomas

Planeflyer · Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:57 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
Europe’s best move would be to develop a 6 th gen ac. It’ll be 10-20 billion more and 5-10 years later but it will have a much better shot of success.

the no-vertical stabilizer bit is pretty gen. 6ish

Better yet would be a cooperative effort w the USA on 6 th gen.

Not ever going to happen. Needing a US export licence for the Tornado because of US components was too much a pain during its export efforts. Other countries would do the same if they could, of course, but no EU made combat aircraft with export potential will depend on components that need an US export license. The Meteor and IRIS-T Missiles exist in part to enable offering Typhoons without AIM-120/Sidewinder export licences getting in the way.

On top of that, all of NATO flying a single type of aircraft, and effectively depending on it to work, is probably not a very good idea either.

best regards
Thomas

Good points and I agree it won’t be easy but based on the development costs involved I think it’s worth the effort.

Re the export isssue, I think the market size if we just consider the us and Europe may be large enough that exports are not required and based on the technology not advisable.

Anyway, how many Typhoons have been exported?

And have these few sales significantly offset development costs?

tommy1808 · Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:30 am

Planeflyer wrote:
And have these few sales significantly offset development costs?

Probably not. But even with military spending being a fairly bad job creator, spending twice the money in Europe is about as good as spending half that abroad. And you get to have all the know how, source code and so on.
So in the end a 50:50 joint venture would cost the same, economically speaking, as doing a 100% own project, if you have a complete industry. We do, we spend a lot of money building it, why give that up?

Best regards
Thomas

Planeflyer · Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:22 am

Because with every generation you are falling further and further behind.

Europe has and always will be a ripe target. Yes , today there are no immediate threats but the same could be said many times in the past and yet major wars came from seemingly nowhere.

Full command of the air is the single best investment for it is fantastic for defense but doesn’t spook adversaries as it does not hold ground.

tommy1808 · Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:32 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Because with every generation you are falling further and further behind.

I see no evidence for that. European nations decided against stealth in the 80`s, its not as if companies in Europe didn´t know how to build stealthy aircraft, they did build enough up to full scale to get a feel for Radar return, like the MBB Lampyridae, rumor has it that was killed by US pressure, or BAE Systems Replica. We know, at least for Germany as the UK is more secretive, from parliamentary documents that stealth testing and prototyping was kept up throughout. And according to RANDs "U.S. Still Leads the World in Science and Technology; Nation Benefits From Foreign Scientists, Engineers" Study, the leading edge skill is available too. Top Material Scientists are available too: http://archive.sciencewatch.com/dr/sci/ ... ci2000-10/

best regards
Thomas

Slug71 · Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:35 am

Ozair wrote:
An interesting looking concept, especially the images in the video.

Watch France and Germany's next generation stealth fighter, a two-engine jet that looks like it will outclass the F-35

The French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation recently published a video that gives a glimpse into what the reported Franco-German fifth generation aircraft might look like.

France and Germany announced in July 2017 that they would be joining forces to build an advanced “European” fighter to replace Dassault Aviation’s Rafales and Germany’s Eurofighter Typhoons, The War Zone reported last summer.

“As expected, 2-engine deltawing,” Sim Tack, chief military analyst at Force Analysis and Global Fellow at Strator, tweeted on Thursday about the new Dassault Aviation video, in which the conceptual fighter appears around minute 3:10.

“I think if they can pull it all off, this seems a legitimate candidate for a highly capable competitor to the F-35 and Su-57,” Tack messaged Business Insider.

Unlike the F-35, Dassault’s next generation fighter will supposedly have two engines and therefore much more thrust, Tack said.

“In terms of capabilities, the focus will probably be on stealth technology, and integration with information systems,” Tack said, such as “sharing information between aircraft, possibly commanding drones, etc.”

Tack added that it’s up for debate whether this aircraft would be a fifth or sixth generation fighter.

The Dassault fighter also doesn’t appear to have a vertical stabilizer, which will cut down on radar reflections from the side, giving it greater stealth capabilities, Tack said.

In any event, the next generation fighter will probably be under development for the next 20 years, Tack said.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/watc ... ?r=US&IR=T

Small LEVCONS forward of the intakes?

seahawk · Fri Jul 20, 2018 5:57 am

It is an artistic concept.

Planeflyer · Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:40 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
Because with every generation you are falling further and further behind.

I see no evidence for that. European nations decided against stealth in the 80`s, its not as if companies in Europe didn´t know how to build stealthy aircraft, they did build enough up to full scale to get a feel for Radar return, like the MBB Lampyridae, rumor has it that was killed by US pressure, or BAE Systems Replica. We know, at least for Germany as the UK is more secretive, from parliamentary documents that stealth testing and prototyping was kept up throughout. And according to RANDs "U.S. Still Leads the World in Science and Technology; Nation Benefits From Foreign Scientists, Engineers" Study, the leading edge skill is available too. Top Material Scientists are available too: http://archive.sciencewatch.com/dr/sci/ ... ci2000-10/

best regards
Thomas

Sounds awfully weird.

And for whatever the reason Europe won’t have an AC capable of operating in contested environments for at least 25 years.

GDB · Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:42 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
Because with every generation you are falling further and further behind.

I see no evidence for that. European nations decided against stealth in the 80`s, its not as if companies in Europe didn´t know how to build stealthy aircraft, they did build enough up to full scale to get a feel for Radar return, like the MBB Lampyridae, rumor has it that was killed by US pressure, or BAE Systems Replica. We know, at least for Germany as the UK is more secretive, from parliamentary documents that stealth testing and prototyping was kept up throughout. And according to RANDs "U.S. Still Leads the World in Science and Technology; Nation Benefits From Foreign Scientists, Engineers" Study, the leading edge skill is available too. Top Material Scientists are available too: http://archive.sciencewatch.com/dr/sci/ ... ci2000-10/

best regards
Thomas

The role of the BAE Replica, never intended as a flying machine, was to demonstrate their ability to design and build aircraft structures that are Low Observeable. This was validated in testing and was BAE's 'in' to the then JSF program as a Tier One partner.

JJJ · Tue Jul 24, 2018 11:32 am

Noray wrote:
keesje wrote:
French politics as we have seen over the last 40 years.. French company presenting it self as European (funding.), working towards being based in France and the french government coming in with Billion to secure leadership for the french participation. This video totally fits in there. I'm 99% sire this video presentation isn't coordinated and comes as a surprize for the German site. It is chess.

What's interesting the germans have learned their lessons, will probably invest most & won't get along. Meanwhile they don't want to corrupt the project by expensive, time wasting infights. Expect some strong signals / innitiative from that site soon. The french feel & launch this pre emptive..

This could be a nice story if Germany and France hadn't already agreed that France will be the lead nation. Germany will lead other projects. This is a lesson from the A400M history.
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... ghter.html

Spain also asked for developer access and was told you they would get "observer" level of access.

Lessons learned indeed.

Planeflyer · Wed Aug 29, 2018 4:36 am

Today aviation week published an article that reviewed RAF operations against ISIS in Syria and Iraq.

Towards the end on the of the article one of the RAF pilots stated that and I paraphrased; we are keenly aware that as soon we take off we are within the engagement envelope of the S400 batteries in Syria.

The airbase is in Cypress.

Questions?

tommy1808 · Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:52 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Towards the end on the of the article one of the RAF pilots stated that and I paraphrased; we are keenly aware that as soon we take off we are within the engagement envelope of the S400 batteries in Syria.

The airbase is in Cypress.

Questions?

Read = the S400 system wasn't a threat, or we would have staged from further out.
Being able to loft a missile all the way to Cyprus does not mean that they could hit an agile, aware target at that distance.

Best regards
Thomas

seahawk · Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:19 am

And if it is in S400 range it is in Iskander range as well, which means the runway could be closed any moment, regardless of the plane based there.

tommy1808 · Wed Aug 29, 2018 9:27 am

seahawk wrote:
And if it is in S400 range it is in Iskander range as well, which means the runway could be closed any moment, regardless of the plane based there.

One more reason to get MEADS up and running... no point having stealth aircraft otherwise. Unless someone comes up with stealth airports....

best regards
Thomas

keesje · Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:43 am

tommy1808 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And if it is in S400 range it is in Iskander range as well, which means the runway could be closed any moment, regardless of the plane based there.

One more reason to get MEADS up and running... no point having stealth aircraft otherwise. Unless someone comes up with stealth airports....

best regards
Thomas

Old school arms race logic would be to develop weapons to destroy S400 launchers as soon as they swith on power. :bored:

tommy1808 · Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:46 am

keesje wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
And if it is in S400 range it is in Iskander range as well, which means the runway could be closed any moment, regardless of the plane based there.

One more reason to get MEADS up and running... no point having stealth aircraft otherwise. Unless someone comes up with stealth airports....

best regards
Thomas

Old school arms race logic would be to develop weapons to destroy S400 launchers as soon as they swith on power.

we could bring the Pershing II back in a conventional role

Or find the money to finish this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARMIGER

best regards
Thomas

Planeflyer · Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:36 pm

Denial is also a long river.

mxaxai · Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:09 pm

The german armed forces just ~~presented a paper~~ had a paper leaked on how they want to look like by 2031. Nothing specific regarding the potential FCAS / F-35 but some interesting parts nonetheless. I'm not going to comment but I'm sure you can draw your own conclusions:

Defense of Germany (and NATO) becomes priority no. 1 (instead of large overseas deployments like Afghanistan)
The split between Army, Navy, Air Force is reduced, instead 12 "system groups" are introduced. For example, helicopters will join the "system group land" to support infantry, and fighter jets will train with the "system group sea" to become more proficient in attacking, and defending, naval targets. (Both of which would still be operated by air force personnel)
A "system group space" is introduced (and others)
The air force - or rather the "system group air" - shall be able to operate regardless of modern hostile air defence systems.
Nuclear Sharing will remain.
Primary focus of the air force will be establishing and maintaining air superiority over Germany and other theatres. (Not sure if that's a new thing)
Internal management is to be reorganised to improve maintenance, procurement and availability.
Significant increase of sustainment spending (3.7 -> 5.4 billion € per year). Significant overall increase of funding (37 -> 58 billion € per year) by 2024
"New combat aircraft" are to be ordered - pretty vague on that part.

Some of this isn't completely new since earlier concepts got leaked but I haven't seen a clear commitment to nuclear sharing before.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/de ... 90120.html

Ozair · Mon Sep 03, 2018 9:46 pm

mxaxai wrote:
The german armed forces just ~~presented a paper~~ had a paper leaked on how they want to look like by 2031. Nothing specific regarding the potential FCAS / F-35 but some interesting parts nonetheless. I'm not going to comment but I'm sure you can draw your own conclusions:

Defense of Germany (and NATO) becomes priority no. 1 (instead of large overseas deployments like Afghanistan)
The split between Army, Navy, Air Force is reduced, instead 12 "system groups" are introduced. For example, helicopters will join the "system group land" to support infantry, and fighter jets will train with the "system group sea" to become more proficient in attacking, and defending, naval targets. (Both of which would still be operated by air force personnel)
A "system group space" is introduced (and others)
The air force - or rather the "system group air" - shall be able to operate regardless of modern hostile air defence systems.
Nuclear Sharing will remain.
Primary focus of the air force will be establishing and maintaining air superiority over Germany and other theatres. (Not sure if that's a new thing)
Internal management is to be reorganised to improve maintenance, procurement and availability.
Significant increase of sustainment spending (3.7 -> 5.4 billion € per year). Significant overall increase of funding (37 -> 58 billion € per year) by 2024
"New combat aircraft" are to be ordered - pretty vague on that part.

Some of this isn't completely new since earlier concepts got leaked but I haven't seen a clear commitment to nuclear sharing before.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/de ... 90120.html

Some significant indications there. How much of this do you think is aspirational compared to what will actually come to pass, for example the budget increases? I get the impression this is a "this is what we want" paper and the German Government will now pick and choose what they want to fund and how much the budget will actually increase.

keesje · Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:10 am

While the strategy paper focus very much on defense, I can see the "new combat aircraft" being very much focussed on strike, stealth, range endurance. The Eurofighter will remain for the defensive interceptor role.

The size, two engines and two crew members seem to confim.

vr773 · Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:01 pm

Ozair wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
The german armed forces just ~~presented a paper~~ had a paper leaked on how they want to look like by 2031. Nothing specific regarding the potential FCAS / F-35 but some interesting parts nonetheless. I'm not going to comment but I'm sure you can draw your own conclusions:

Defense of Germany (and NATO) becomes priority no. 1 (instead of large overseas deployments like Afghanistan)
The split between Army, Navy, Air Force is reduced, instead 12 "system groups" are introduced. For example, helicopters will join the "system group land" to support infantry, and fighter jets will train with the "system group sea" to become more proficient in attacking, and defending, naval targets. (Both of which would still be operated by air force personnel)
A "system group space" is introduced (and others)
The air force - or rather the "system group air" - shall be able to operate regardless of modern hostile air defence systems.
Nuclear Sharing will remain.
Primary focus of the air force will be establishing and maintaining air superiority over Germany and other theatres. (Not sure if that's a new thing)
Internal management is to be reorganised to improve maintenance, procurement and availability.
Significant increase of sustainment spending (3.7 -> 5.4 billion € per year). Significant overall increase of funding (37 -> 58 billion € per year) by 2024
"New combat aircraft" are to be ordered - pretty vague on that part.

Some of this isn't completely new since earlier concepts got leaked but I haven't seen a clear commitment to nuclear sharing before.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/de ... 90120.html

Some significant indications there. How much of this do you think is aspirational compared to what will actually come to pass, for example the budget increases? I get the impression this is a "this is what we want" paper and the German Government will now pick and choose what they want to fund and how much the budget will actually increase.

I think it‘s a way of triggering the debate. In the end they‘ll probably meet in the middle somewhere. Things like the new light attack helicopters will probably get cut.

The paper also makes some political assumption that should be debated (e.g. continuing nuclear sharing).

tommy1808 · Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:44 pm

Ozair wrote:
Some significant indications there. How much of this do you think is aspirational compared to what will actually come to pass, for example the budget increases? I get the impression this is a "this is what we want" paper and the German Government will now pick and choose what they want to fund and how much the budget will actually increase.

The coalition treaty says that development aid and defense have to increase in lockstep, so the increase is twice as high as it would seem.
That being said, I think the chances are not that low. With the increasing GDP that is probably just 1.4% of the GDP at that time.

Best regards
Thomas

mxaxai · Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:22 am

vr773 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
The german armed forces just ~~presented a paper~~ had a paper leaked on how they want to look like by 2031. Nothing specific regarding the potential FCAS / F-35 but some interesting parts nonetheless. I'm not going to comment but I'm sure you can draw your own conclusions:

Defense of Germany (and NATO) becomes priority no. 1 (instead of large overseas deployments like Afghanistan)
The split between Army, Navy, Air Force is reduced, instead 12 "system groups" are introduced. For example, helicopters will join the "system group land" to support infantry, and fighter jets will train with the "system group sea" to become more proficient in attacking, and defending, naval targets. (Both of which would still be operated by air force personnel)
A "system group space" is introduced (and others)
The air force - or rather the "system group air" - shall be able to operate regardless of modern hostile air defence systems.
Nuclear Sharing will remain.
Primary focus of the air force will be establishing and maintaining air superiority over Germany and other theatres. (Not sure if that's a new thing)
Internal management is to be reorganised to improve maintenance, procurement and availability.
Significant increase of sustainment spending (3.7 -> 5.4 billion € per year). Significant overall increase of funding (37 -> 58 billion € per year) by 2024
"New combat aircraft" are to be ordered - pretty vague on that part.

Some of this isn't completely new since earlier concepts got leaked but I haven't seen a clear commitment to nuclear sharing before.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/de ... 90120.html

Some significant indications there. How much of this do you think is aspirational compared to what will actually come to pass, for example the budget increases? I get the impression this is a "this is what we want" paper and the German Government will now pick and choose what they want to fund and how much the budget will actually increase.

I think it‘s a way of triggering the debate. In the end they‘ll probably meet in the middle somewhere. Things like the new light attack helicopters will probably get cut.

The paper also makes some political assumption that should be debated (e.g. continuing nuclear sharing).

Indeed, some points are of purely political nature and independent of funding.

Improving maintenance and day-to-day operations is priority no. 1 for all politicians so that is pretty safe. Since this paper was prepared by the armed forces themselves and not by the MoD, there should be little opposition against the reorganisation itself.

Germany's federal budget alone has accumulated a huge surplus of 10.3 billion € in the first half of 2018 alone and things are looking good for the future. There is a lot of pressure to spend that money, or at least reduce the surplus. The main, ongoing discussion is whether this money should be "distributed to the people" by tax cuts and welfare increases or whether it should be invested in e. g. infrastructure and technology (which would include any of these purchases). The economy has been doing extraordinarily well lately and there is a severe shortage of experienced workers, particularly for any (low-paid) government projects, so there is little pressure to generate jobs by the government.

We will see what happens but I expect a large increase in funding in any case.

Ozair · Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:20 pm

Potentially a quicker replacement timeframe for the German Tornado fleet given the rising cost of sustainment. Not sure this helps the cause of an upgraded Eurofighter unless Germany would takes initial current T3 frames and remanufacture to T4 should that become available.

German ministry seeks data on quicker fighter jet deliveries

The German military has asked potential bidders in a high-stakes competition to replace its ageing Tornado fighter jets about accelerating deliveries of new warplanes before an initial target date of 2025, sources familiar with the matter said.

The defence ministry posed the question in early August in a follow-up to its initial request for information from Europe’s Airbus (AIR.PA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) and Boeing (BA.N), both from the United States, the sources said.

The ministry had no comment on the latest twist in a tender that could be worth billions of euros. One of the sources said the request signalled concerns about the growing cost of servicing the current fleet of 85 operational Tornado jets.

Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen says she favours a European solution - the Eurofighter Typhoon built by Airbus, Britain’s BAE Systems and Italy’s Leonardo SpA (LDOF.MI) - but Lockheed and Boeing still hope for a chance to bid for the work.

Airbus and the U.S. government submitted data this spring about the four fighter jet models under consideration - the Eurofighter, Lockheed’s F-35, and the Boeing F/A-18E/F or F-15E.

Germany is studying a number of options, including buying one type of jet to replace the Tornado jets, a split buy of two aircraft types, and a service life extension of the Tornado jets, according to multiple sources familiar with the process.

Germany has also asked Washington for information about the possibility of leasing Boeing F-15 fighter jets, two sources said, although that is seen as an unlikely outcome.

Von der Leyen in July said she expected a preliminary decision on the next steps by the end of the year.

One proposal calls for Germany to buy 40-45 Lockheed F-35 jets to replace those Tornados that can carry nuclear bombs, and about 75 new Eurofighters to replace both the other Tornados and a first batch of Eurofighters delivered between 2003 and 2008.

Buying F-35s would allow Germany to keep a mixed fleet of fighter jets, a key requirement in its military strategy, while averting costly and time-consuming modifications to the process of certifying the Eurofighter to carry nuclear bombs.

Although not a nuclear power, Germany hosts some U.S. nuclear warheads under NATO’s nuclear-sharing policy and operates a number of Tornado warplanes that can deliver them.

The U.S. has told Germany it could take 12 to 18 months to study the Eurofighter certification issue.

German industry executives are pressing for quick answers, given that the already high cost of keeping the Tornado jets flying could rise once Britain and Italy phase out their fleets.

“The cost of spare parts and operations keeps going up,” one industry executive said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germa ... KKCN1LR25L

Planeflyer · Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:37 am

But there is no threat so why the rush?

WIederling · Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:26 am

Planeflyer wrote:
But there is no threat so why the rush?

von der Leyen would like to bomb Syria. "Playing with the Bully and his friends".

seahawk · Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:30 am

Planeflyer wrote:
But there is no threat so why the rush?

As stated in the article. the costs of keeping the Tornado flying are rising, as the number of operational frames reduces. Spare stocks deplete and manufactures ask higher prices as the production is less and less economical. More and more OEMs go out of business and spares become unavailable. Germany has the experience with the F-4, but the Tornado is not backed up with such a huge retired fleet of possible spare donors.

columba · Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:37 am

I still believe it will be a split order between more Eurofighters and a small batch of F35s for the nuclear sharing

Planeflyer · Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:56 pm

Situation- no serious current threat, other nato countries are there to back you in a pinch, don’t want to waste money, AF knows 4 th gen is a dead end, need to maintain some sort of capability,don’t want to buy American but understand fully that if the shit hits the fan 911 calls are only really answered by a # that has a + 1 prefix.

In another words a tough situation and no idea how Germany will figure it out.

vr773 · Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:20 am

Planeflyer wrote:
Situation- no serious current threat, other nato countries are there to back you in a pinch, don’t want to waste money, AF knows 4 th gen is a dead end, need to maintain some sort of capability,don’t want to buy American but understand fully that if the shit hits the fan 911 calls are only really answered by a # that has a + 1 prefix.

In another words a tough situation and no idea how Germany will figure it out.

No point in calling the +1 number if a narcissistic, erratic wannabe dictator is answering the phone. It’s also not smart to buy warplanes from him.

RJMAZ · Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:47 am

columba wrote:
I still believe it will be a split order between more Eurofighters and a small batch of F35s for the nuclear sharing

100% agreed.

Germany does not have the political will to develop a 5th gen aircraft. Even if they could get the development down to a "cheap" $10+billion dollars you still have to divide that cost over the number of aircraft purchased.

If 100 german built aircraft are purchased the price including development will be upwards of $250 million each. You could purchase 3 times as many F-35's.

The F-35 will always cost less to maintain due to the vast economy of scale and network.

To pay 3 times the price just because you dont want to buy American is just plain stubbornness. Germany would NEVER go to war against a country that would force the US to stop providing support. There is no excuse not to buy the F-35. Germany is no doubt highly envious of the United States advanced aviation sector.

The tip of the spear is usually the most costly to develop, buying off the shelf makes sense. A small batch of F-35's supported by additional Eurofighters is the way to go and will be easier to swallow politically.

Germany would be better off developing something less technically advanced to keep their industry going.

Some ideas:U
Clean sheet European trainer aircraft.
Unmanned stealth drone.
Quad tilt rotor with 10t payload.

texl1649 · Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:58 am

Why wouldn’t the Germans ever consider partnering either with the Japanese or Chinese? If the Japanese project does lead to technology that can be shared (if not exported) their little f22 hybrid concept could be interesting if further “Europeanized”. Similarly, it would seem the French and Germans alike might also find Chinese cooperation vastly cheaper (and faster) than either going it alone (together) or working with an American partner (the horror).

ThePointblank · Sun Sep 16, 2018 3:02 am

texl1649 wrote:
Why wouldn’t the Germans ever consider partnering either with the Japanese or Chinese? If the Japanese project does lead to technology that can be shared (if not exported) their little f22 hybrid concept could be interesting if further “Europeanized”. Similarly, it would seem the French and Germans alike might also find Chinese cooperation vastly cheaper (and faster) than either going it alone (together) or working with an American partner (the horror).

Because the Japanese fighter is going to be ungodly expensive and the Chinese both aren't strategic allies of Germany, and aren't on the same technical capabilities of either the French or Germans.

keesje · Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:50 am

I can see Merkel & Macron support a Dassault / Airbus Germany deal to bridge the Tornado end of life period, as part of the strategic cooperation. E.g 100 of the more strike optimized Rafales, joint training, shared spare poules etc. The french could compensate buying e.g hundreds of EMBT's.

vr773 · Sun Sep 16, 2018 12:36 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
columba wrote:
I still believe it will be a split order between more Eurofighters and a small batch of F35s for the nuclear sharing

100% agreed.

Germany does not have the political will to develop a 5th gen aircraft. Even if they could get the development down to a "cheap" $10+billion dollars you still have to divide that cost over the number of aircraft purchased.

If 100 german built aircraft are purchased the price including development will be upwards of $250 million each. You could purchase 3 times as many F-35's.

The F-35 will always cost less to maintain due to the vast economy of scale and network.

To pay 3 times the price just because you dont want to buy American is just plain stubbornness. Germany would NEVER go to war against a country that would force the US to stop providing support. There is no excuse not to buy the F-35. Germany is no doubt highly envious of the United States advanced aviation sector.

The tip of the spear is usually the most costly to develop, buying off the shelf makes sense. A small batch of F-35's supported by additional Eurofighters is the way to go and will be easier to swallow politically.

Germany would be better off developing something less technically advanced to keep their industry going.

Some ideas:U
Clean sheet European trainer aircraft.
Unmanned stealth drone.
Quad tilt rotor with 10t payload.

I don't understand your argument. Are you saying that because there's lack of political will to develop the FCAS and because Germany is "no doubt highly envious" of the US aviation sector they are going to end up buying F-35?

You don't back up either string of thought. Who in the political spectrum has questioned the FCAS project? What are some indicators for that envy that you claim to know of and how can a country as a whole by envious anyways? I think you might be projecting emotions here.

RJMAZ · Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:59 pm

vr773 wrote:
What are some indicators for that envy that you claim to know of and how can a country as a whole by envious anyways? I think you might be projecting emotions here.

Definitely no emotions from my side, just clear observation as I am not American. It is 100% emotion from the German side.

Jealousy, envy, hate.. It's all the negative stuff. The general population of Germany deep down does not like the US. This is then reflected by their politicians and by what aircraft they purchase.

The JSF mission requirement is exactly what Germany requires. The resulting F-35A was produced from tens of billions of dollars of research and development. To spend $10+ billion and develop something identical, no level headed western government would do. To spend $5 billion and develop something far less capable than the F-35 is also illogical for such a small number of aircraft.

It is fine to pay double for something once including development costs if it has massive returns for your industry. Ship building in Australia is an example of this.

However you can draw the line when developing something locally can cost 10 times the price. 10 times the cost is well within the realms of possibility if they aim for F-35 level performance and development cost exceeds $20 billion.

Look at Japans F-2 as an example. What turned out to be a locally produced improved F-16 ended up costing 3 times the price of buying a standard US built F-16. Production was swiftly scaled back.

If you disagree that it is emotional decision then the only excuse left is plain stupidity.

vr773 · Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:48 am

RJMAZ wrote:
vr773 wrote:
What are some indicators for that envy that you claim to know of and how can a country as a whole by envious anyways? I think you might be projecting emotions here.

Jealousy, envy, hate.. It's all the negative stuff. The general population of Germany deep down does not like the US. This is then reflected by their politicians and by what aircraft they purchase.

I find your gross generalization disturbing. How did you arrive at that conclusion of how the Germans as a whole tick "deep down"? What are your observations based on? What scientific method did you choose?

RJMAZ wrote:
The JSF mission requirement is exactly what Germany requires.

The Eurofighter outperforms the F-35 in several key performance areas. You're wrong to assume that these areas are not part of the set of requirements.

RJMAZ wrote:
To spend $10+ billion and develop something identical, no level headed western government would do.

Who says it's identical?

Planeflyer · Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:01 am

However good the EF or R may be they have no chance in a contested environment.

Like I said Germany is in tough spot; buy the F35 or risk 10-20 billion on developing an AC that has every chance of being obsolete before it enters service.

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net