RJMAZ
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:59 pm

vr773 wrote:
What are some indicators for that envy that you claim to know of and how can a country as a whole by envious anyways? I think you might be projecting emotions here.

Definitely no emotions from my side, just clear observation as I am not American. It is 100% emotion from the German side.

Jealousy, envy, hate.. It's all the negative stuff. The general population of Germany deep down does not like the US. This is then reflected by their politicians and by what aircraft they purchase.

The JSF mission requirement is exactly what Germany requires. The resulting F-35A was produced from tens of billions of dollars of research and development. To spend $10+ billion and develop something identical, no level headed western government would do. To spend $5 billion and develop something far less capable than the F-35 is also illogical for such a small number of aircraft.

It is fine to pay double for something once including development costs if it has massive returns for your industry. Ship building in Australia is an example of this.

However you can draw the line when developing something locally can cost 10 times the price. 10 times the cost is well within the realms of possibility if they aim for F-35 level performance and development cost exceeds $20 billion.

Look at Japans F-2 as an example. What turned out to be a locally produced improved F-16 ended up costing 3 times the price of buying a standard US built F-16. Production was swiftly scaled back.

If you disagree that it is emotional decision then the only excuse left is plain stupidity.
 
vr773
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:48 am

RJMAZ wrote:
vr773 wrote:
What are some indicators for that envy that you claim to know of and how can a country as a whole by envious anyways? I think you might be projecting emotions here.


Jealousy, envy, hate.. It's all the negative stuff. The general population of Germany deep down does not like the US. This is then reflected by their politicians and by what aircraft they purchase.


I find your gross generalization disturbing. How did you arrive at that conclusion of how the Germans as a whole tick "deep down"? What are your observations based on? What scientific method did you choose?

RJMAZ wrote:
The JSF mission requirement is exactly what Germany requires.

The Eurofighter outperforms the F-35 in several key performance areas. You're wrong to assume that these areas are not part of the set of requirements.

RJMAZ wrote:
To spend $10+ billion and develop something identical, no level headed western government would do.

Who says it's identical?
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 4:01 am

However good the EF or R may be they have no chance in a contested environment.

Like I said Germany is in tough spot; buy the F35 or risk 10-20 billion on developing an AC that has every chance of being obsolete before it enters service.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:39 am

There is another simple and efficient option. Buy no fighters.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:26 am

RJMAZ wrote:
To spend $10+ billion and develop something identical, no level headed western government would do. To spend $5 billion and develop something far less capable than the F-35 is also illogical for such a small number of aircraft.

The F-35 covers far more requirements than Germany needs. An aircraft that covers only the needs of Germany is by far not as expensive to develop, as the F-35 was.
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:56 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
To spend $10+ billion and develop something identical, no level headed western government would do. To spend $5 billion and develop something far less capable than the F-35 is also illogical for such a small number of aircraft.

The F-35 covers far more requirements than Germany needs. An aircraft that covers only the needs of Germany is by far not as expensive to develop, as the F-35 was.

No doubt if you include the B and C version. But the F-35A looked at in isolation is very similiar to the German requirement. All three version of the F-35 cost over $50 billion to develop. To develop just the F-35A by itself would still have cost $20+ billion.

Even if the German program had lower stealth and sensor fusion requirements it would cost $10+ billion. So the F-35 effectively provides the Germans high level stealth and high level sensor fusion with no development cost. That means less aircraft are required saving more on procurement and sustainment. Bang for buck the F-35 always wins.

An evolved Eurofighter would still cost billions and would get shot out of the sky on the first day of war. You would need significantly more Eurofighter aircraft and costly advanced weapons to reach the required capability.
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:40 am

I think it is wise to realize guns, aircraft and weapons, the rol eof militairy in far further down the priority line than e.g. the US political-militairy-industry-media block. Buying & building the biggest bomber, tank, carrier doesn't make the proud, feel german. Flag waving is met with more embarrasment than patriotism. Other stuff is just deemed more important.

Growing the economy, handling immigration streams in Europe, uniting the country, immigration streams, keeping Europe together, understanding & working with the Russians, dealing with the eldery, education, extremist from left, right, religious etc.

They have a big strong army, because they have to. But you don't see parades, flag waving & militairy patriotism.

So Merkel is looking for workable solutions, in recent years the French proved more cooperative than other partners, so we see militairy cooperation moving there.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-france-defence/france-to-lead-joint-fighter-jet-programme-with-germany-idUKKBN1JF2U8
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:47 am

Forget the nice words. There are 2 driving ideas behind the German / French fighter.

1. protect jobs
2. protect a technological capability
3. effective costs (20 billion spent on a project that goes to firms paying taxes and employees paying taxes in your country) is effectively cheaper than a 20 billion contract which sees you importing a finished product.

Once you are out of designing and building fighters, you are out for good.
 
WIederling
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:55 am

rheinwaldner wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
To spend $10+ billion and develop something identical, no level headed western government would do. To spend $5 billion and develop something far less capable than the F-35 is also illogical for such a small number of aircraft.

The F-35 covers far more requirements than Germany needs. An aircraft that covers only the needs of Germany is by far not as expensive to develop, as the F-35 was.


Afaics : the US invariably overspends on military development. Value gained for money spent is subpar.
Other nations tend to get more bang for their bucks. ( OK, not Japan.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
texl1649
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:08 am

This will proceed along the A400m model then, it sounds like. 25 years to develop a capability that could have been licensed elsewhere for a fraction of the cost, then too expensive to sell anywhere else. Can Germany keep a nominal figure of tornados flying thru 2050?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:29 am

The favoured options for the Tornado replacement seems to be a split buy. About 35 F-35s for the nuclear sharing role and additional of EFs for the rest. Around 35-75 depending on the long time future of the Tranche 1 Typhoons. The French project is supposed to replace the EF. Why this is more absurd than BAe Tempest is beyond me.
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:22 pm

I think the germans pretty well know what they want and what they do not want.

They learned a lot in the past 30 years, e.g. not to involve everyone on everything.
Dassault & Airbus militairy got an initial go ahead. They came back with a "2040 proposal"

As Ozair linked, German leadership respond:

"Nope, been there, 2040 is too late. Spare us your 100 Billion 2040 Future Airpower Vision. It is for interest groups, we didn't ask for it.

Image

:arrow: " What we do need is a Tornado strike replacement around 2030. Stealth, range, speed, 2 crew. W'll forget Trump & the Brexits, if you work with the French and come back with a doable option. Helps us out, instead of creating another industrial-political driven money black hole."

Image

If von der Leyen doesn't understand, Merkel probably will step in (again).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-fighter/german-ministry-seeks-data-on-quicker-fighter-jet-deliveries-idUKKCN1LR25L
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:20 pm

seahawk wrote:
There is another simple and efficient option. Buy no fighters.



A large part of solving a problem is naming it and for practical matters the option you described is the situation that exists.

In any serious military encounter even the haters know full well that the US would fill the role the German AF can’t.
 
texl1649
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 3:55 pm

Interesting that they'd consider the F-15. They've flown St Louis-built F-4's before in the jurassic period, but not sure they were ever nuke carriers (I would think so?). Boeing seems pretty desperate to keep something running in St. Louis for tacair, and (with McCain dead) it would be funny if they came up with a foreign military sale/lease program for a germanized F-15-Gx.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:14 pm

It is the market analysis phase, so any suitable bidder was asked to provide information and boeing did not only provide information for the F-18 but also for the F-15. Lockmart could have provided info for the F-16, but chose not to.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:20 pm

The F15 and 18 are just as useless as any of the European 4th gen ac.

Any 4th gen ac means the US must do all the heavy lifting at the beginning of any serious conflict.
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:46 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
seahawk wrote:
There is another simple and efficient option. Buy no fighters.


A large part of solving a problem is naming it and for practical matters the option you described is the situation that exists.

In any serious military encounter even the haters know full well that the US would fill the role the German AF can’t.


Who would be the enemies to counter, in a massive attack? The WarsawPact ? Puttin? Merkel has been the phone with him for a decade, speaking german and russian between them. They're no best friends and preventing 20 million casulties is their joint heritage, whatever far away friends thinking might be.

Please don't try to project 1985 cold war thinking on todays situation. It is totally irrelevant. Whatever Holywood & Bolton say.

Adjust or be left behind.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:42 pm

keesje wrote:
I think the germans pretty well know what they want and what they do not want.

They learned a lot in the past 30 years, e.g. not to involve everyone on everything.
Dassault & Airbus militairy got an initial go ahead. They came back with a "2040 proposal"

As Ozair linked, German leadership respond:

"Nope, been there, 2040 is too late. Spare us your 100 Billion 2040 Future Airpower Vision. It is for interest groups, we didn't ask for it.


:arrow: " What we do need is a Tornado strike replacement around 2030. Stealth, range, speed, 2 crew. W'll forget Trump & the Brexits, if you work with the French and come back with a doable option. Helps us out, instead of creating another industrial-political driven money black hole."

Image

If von der Leyen doesn't understand, Merkel probably will step in (again).

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-fighter/german-ministry-seeks-data-on-quicker-fighter-jet-deliveries-idUKKCN1LR25L

Keesje, you have completely misinterpreted the intent of the article you have linked as well as what the Germans are seeking.

To be clear, the German request for early bids is for an off the shelf aircraft that is either the Eurofighter (with some development), the F-15, F-18 and F-35. There is no development of a stealth, range, speed, 2 crew aircraft by Airbus/Dassault happening by 2030. The article outlines the current intent,
Germany is studying a number of options, including buying one type of jet to replace the Tornado jets, a split buy of two aircraft types, and a service life extension of the Tornado jets, according to multiple sources familiar with the process.

Additionally to be clear, the Germans and French have stated that the new co-developed fighter aircraft is being designed to replace the Eurofighter and Rafale in service. It is not about replacing the Tornado, with the Germans soon to be the sole European operator and likely sole operator by 2025, realise will cost ever increasing amounts each year to keep in service, with a corresponding decline in availability, and therefore will likely be replaced sooner rather than later.
 
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cpd
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:17 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Jealousy, envy, hate.. It's all the negative stuff. The general population of Germany deep down does not like the US. This is then reflected by their politicians and by what aircraft they purchase.


They've had F4 Phantoms before, even F-104. Saying that Germany as a whole doesn't like the USA because of the aircraft it doesn't purchase is ridiculous. Especially look at Lufthansa over the years with an enormous Boeing fleet. Or is it not a German operation?

What Germany needs here is something like the F-111, but stealthy and with modern systems.

If the USA builds that and does so quickly, they might find a number of countries interested in it.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:50 pm

keesje wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
seahawk wrote:
There is another simple and efficient option. Buy no fighters.


A large part of solving a problem is naming it and for practical matters the option you described is the situation that exists.

In any serious military encounter even the haters know full well that the US would fill the role the German AF can’t.


Who would be the enemies to counter, in a massive attack? The WarsawPact ? Puttin? Merkel has been the phone with him for a decade, speaking german and russian between them. They're no best friends and preventing 20 million casulties is their joint heritage, whatever far away friends thinking might be.

Please don't try to project 1985 cold war thinking on todays situation. It is totally irrelevant. Whatever Holywood & Bolton say.

Adjust or be left behind.


Fair enough but then why spend 30-40 billion on a pipe dream?

But the bigger point is the history of Europe is you never know. Who in 1919 could have predicted 1939? Would we have all been better off if France and Britain been able deter the Nazi’s.

NATO was invented to deal w the risks inherent in Europeon security and it has worked save for the one time Europe wanted to try it on their own; the disaster in the Balkans.

And Germany is simply not carrying its weight.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:52 am

Planeflyer wrote:
keesje wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:

A large part of solving a problem is naming it and for practical matters the option you described is the situation that exists.

In any serious military encounter even the haters know full well that the US would fill the role the German AF can’t.


Who would be the enemies to counter, in a massive attack? The WarsawPact ? Puttin? Merkel has been the phone with him for a decade, speaking german and russian between them. They're no best friends and preventing 20 million casulties is their joint heritage, whatever far away friends thinking might be.

Please don't try to project 1985 cold war thinking on todays situation. It is totally irrelevant. Whatever Holywood & Bolton say.

Adjust or be left behind.


Fair enough but then why spend 30-40 billion on a pipe dream?

But the bigger point is the history of Europe is you never know. Who in 1919 could have predicted 1939? Would we have all been better off if France and Britain been able deter the Nazi’s.

NATO was invented to deal w the risks inherent in Europeon security and it has worked save for the one time Europe wanted to try it on their own; the disaster in the Balkans.

And Germany is simply not carrying its weight.


I agree that NATO should be disbanded, as the interests of the USA and the Europeans are too different today.

But the "you never know" reasoning, is exactly the reasoning for the fighter project with the French. It is about keeping the capability to built your own fighter aircraft, as even the USA can not be seen as a fully reliable supplier any more.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:12 am

keesje wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
seahawk wrote:
There is another simple and efficient option. Buy no fighters.


A large part of solving a problem is naming it and for practical matters the option you described is the situation that exists.

In any serious military encounter even the haters know full well that the US would fill the role the German AF can’t.


Who would be the enemies to counter, in a massive attack? The WarsawPact ? Puttin? Merkel has been the phone with him for a decade, speaking german and russian between them. They're no best friends and preventing 20 million casulties is their joint heritage, whatever far away friends thinking might be.

Please don't try to project 1985 cold war thinking on todays situation. It is totally irrelevant. Whatever Holywood & Bolton say.

Adjust or be left behind.


Well, of course, Russia isn't going to attack Germany. Putin ain't stupid and there is no clear benefit to attack. But it is always good to equip your military for the "what if" scenario. Even on peace missions, it is a could plan to fly with a stealth plane because all older anti-aircraft system won't be able to pick them off.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:23 pm

seahawk wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
keesje wrote:

Who would be the enemies to counter, in a massive attack? The WarsawPact ? Puttin? Merkel has been the phone with him for a decade, speaking german and russian between them. They're no best friends and preventing 20 million casulties is their joint heritage, whatever far away friends thinking might be.

Please don't try to project 1985 cold war thinking on todays situation. It is totally irrelevant. Whatever Holywood & Bolton say.

Adjust or be left behind.





Fair enough but then why spend 30-40 billion on a pipe dream?

But the bigger point is the history of Europe is you never know. Who in 1919 could have predicted 1939? Would we have all been better off if France and Britain been able deter the Nazi’s.

NATO was invented to deal w the risks inherent in Europeon security and it has worked save for the one time Europe wanted to try it on their own; the disaster in the Balkans.

And Germany is simply not carrying its weight.


I agree that NATO should be disbanded, as the interests of the USA and the Europeans are too different today.

But the "you never know" reasoning, is exactly the reasoning for the fighter project with the French. It is about keeping the capability to built your own fighter aircraft, as even the USA can not be seen as a fully reliable supplier any more.



I have not asserted that NATO disband. For a preview of what it would look like w/o NATO review the situation in the Balkans in the late 1980’s.

The Europeon’s said they could handle the situation, Bush went along with and the Balkans soon descended to Europe circa 1945.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:54 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Interesting that they'd consider the F-15. They've flown St Louis-built F-4's before in the jurassic period, but not sure they were ever nuke carriers (I would think so?). Boeing seems pretty desperate to keep something running in St. Louis for tacair, and (with McCain dead) it would be funny if they came up with a foreign military sale/lease program for a germanized F-15-Gx.


Iirc, nuke sharing went from the F104 to the Tornado.

The phantoms where bought for air2air and recon, adding a2g weapons was already an upgrade when tornados where well in service, and that was just maverick, bl755 and dumb BP iirc.

Best regards
Thomas
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art
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:42 am

Disregarding politics, my relatively uninformed take on alternatives:

1. If Germany wishes to maintain air-delivery nuclear strike capability as offered by Tornado, look into cost of buying UK, Italy spares banks + retired aircraft for cannibalisation. I guess the spares would be extremely cheap and UK and Italy aircraft could be acquired quickly at little cost (say less than 5 million euros per frame). I guess this would reduce the cost of operating German Tornados considerably, so extending service life of the strike force and pushing a replacement decision date to the right.

2. Replace Tornado with F-35A (preferably planned to be at best cost - running down Tornado spares/cannibalising remaining aircraft as F-35 enters service in increasing numbers).

3. Get US approval for integration of nuclear device on Typhoon + cost estimate for integration. If approval is given and cost is acceptable,, order commensurate number of Typhoons.

I don't see Rafale as a viable proposition since it would offer no better capability than F-35 but would cost more. So would Typhoon but it would bring much greater economic benefit to Germany.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sun Sep 23, 2018 2:36 pm

art wrote:
Disregarding politics, my relatively uninformed take on alternatives:

1. If Germany wishes to maintain air-delivery nuclear strike capability as offered by Tornado, look into cost of buying UK, Italy spares banks + retired aircraft for cannibalisation. I guess the spares would be extremely cheap and UK and Italy aircraft could be acquired quickly at little cost (say less than 5 million euros per frame). I guess this would reduce the cost of operating German Tornados considerably, so extending service life of the strike force and pushing a replacement decision date to the right.

2. Replace Tornado with F-35A (preferably planned to be at best cost - running down Tornado spares/cannibalising remaining aircraft as F-35 enters service in increasing numbers).

3. Get US approval for integration of nuclear device on Typhoon + cost estimate for integration. If approval is given and cost is acceptable,, order commensurate number of Typhoons.

I don't see Rafale as a viable proposition since it would offer no better capability than F-35 but would cost more. So would Typhoon but it would bring much greater economic benefit to Germany.



Agree that spares from Italy and the UK may help . The F35 will not only be less expensive than any 4th gen fighter save for an F16 but it will also be loads more capable. Using 4th gen ac to penetrate contested air space is not feasible.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:03 am

Planeflyer wrote:
art wrote:
Disregarding politics, my relatively uninformed take on alternatives:

1. If Germany wishes to maintain air-delivery nuclear strike capability as offered by Tornado, look into cost of buying UK, Italy spares banks + retired aircraft for cannibalisation. I guess the spares would be extremely cheap and UK and Italy aircraft could be acquired quickly at little cost (say less than 5 million euros per frame). I guess this would reduce the cost of operating German Tornados considerably, so extending service life of the strike force and pushing a replacement decision date to the right.

2. Replace Tornado with F-35A (preferably planned to be at best cost - running down Tornado spares/cannibalising remaining aircraft as F-35 enters service in increasing numbers).

3. Get US approval for integration of nuclear device on Typhoon + cost estimate for integration. If approval is given and cost is acceptable,, order commensurate number of Typhoons.

I don't see Rafale as a viable proposition since it would offer no better capability than F-35 but would cost more. So would Typhoon but it would bring much greater economic benefit to Germany.



Agree that spares from Italy and the UK may help . The F35 will not only be less expensive than any 4th gen fighter save for an F16 but it will also be loads more capable. Using 4th gen ac to penetrate contested air space is not feasible.


Depends if the Italian and British Tornados are in any way identical or similar to the German Tornados... which I don't think they are. All 3 nations had conducted different upgrade paths for their Tornado fleet, which could mean that very little could be common between the 3 countries.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 24, 2018 5:06 am

And Saudi Arabia is also still flying the Tornado and sucking up spares. Most British spares went there, as they were willing to pay a lot more and their fleet is more similar to the GR.4 than the German. Apart from that no country retired their Tornadoes early. So most spare stocks have been depleted.

If one could get a hand on Saudi stocks, but somehow I doubt that the documentation process for the parts would satisfy German demands.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:38 pm

What are current readiness rates for German Tornados?
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:44 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
What are current readiness rates for German Tornados?


Peacetime or war time rules? Under the former about 30% of the fleet, probably 60 to 70% under wartime rules*. About 1/3 of the fleet is in schedules maintenance/upgrades pretty much at all times.

best regards
Thomas

*assuming strategic warning
Last edited by tommy1808 on Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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WIederling
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:45 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
What are current readiness rates for German Tornados?


Tornado
Luftwaffe
Voll einsatzfähig: 28 von 74 (38 %)
2014: 36 von 66 (55 %)
https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland ... ung-panzer
article published April 2018
Murphy is an optimist
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:13 am

Thanks for the info.
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:20 pm

Japan might choose a new direction on it's next gen fighter program.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/japan-wont-build-super-f-22-or-new-f-15-after-all-33781
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:02 am

"The government is therefore seeking to share the financial burden with British or German-French partners as they are also looking into developing next-generation jets,"

As I expected western nations will need to join together to develop high end equipment. Common sense will hopefully prevail over national pride and stubbornness. Joint projects can still develop local industries in countries that assist in the development.

With any high end project you needs to produce sufficient quantities to justify the high development cost. When you evaluate capability per dollar you must include the development cost. E.g you might be able to purchase the same number of F-35's with half the budget. Japan learnt its lesson with the F-2.

Another key is to not develop something expensive that has very similar capability to something already available already off the shelf. It would be very foolish to produce something similar in size and capability to the F-35 but with two smaller engines.

Long term communication between allied nations would allow for high end projects to be spread around and allow a full spectrum capability to be produced. For example a Japan/German/French 40t heavy fighter project could potentially derail the USAF penetrating counter air program. The USAF could evolve or modify this heavy fighter design for a fraction of the cost of developing a clean sheet. The Japn/German/French fighter might provide 90% of the capability for 25% of the cost. This allows for greater total capability as money becomes available to fill other capability gaps.

A twin engined aircraft using two F-35 engines with off the shelf avionics is the best option. Another option is to go low end, make a stealthy Gripen sized budget fighter. Capture the remaining of F-16 replacement market for countries that can't access the F-35.

A third option is to do nothing. Buy the F-35 for now and look at joining next decades big project.
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:30 pm

It appears that Dassault will start showcasing their next gen aircraft at trade shows with the following about to be displayed.

Image

It obviously bears a strong resemblence to their concept art.

Image

Obviously Dassault consider it to be the replacement for carrier capable Rafales.

RJMAZ wrote:
A third option is to do nothing. Buy the F-35 for now and look at joining next decades big project.

That is my feeling for the Japanese. No new development airframes fits their replacement timeframe and they could still join a development program to influnce requirements in their direction while continuing to induct F-35s into their force structure all the way to the middle to late 2030s. The end result being an F-35 and new dev aircraft fleet with the F-35 replacing all F-4, F-2 and some F-15 aircraft and the new dev aircraft replacing the remaining F-15s.
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:21 pm

Image

That concept looks good from a first view.

Flat, thrust vectoring, lots of internal volume (spare volume between the engines).
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Planeflyer
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:14 pm

Yup, agree.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:02 pm

Image

The big cockpit gives an idea that it is small in size.

If we assume two evolved M88 engines, we'll be looking at something with similar external dimensions to the current Rafale. With the blended design there would be a lot of volume for more fuel and an internal weapons bay between the engines. That extra volume and thrust vectoring would make it heavier than the Rafale. Thrust vectoring is a must for a delta without canards or vstab.

Length: 15-16m
Wingspan: 10-11m
Empty Weight: 12-13T
Fuel: 6-7T
Thrust: 8-9T x 2

This happens to be very close to the F-35.

I could see the french design having less internal weapons volume and the delta wing will allow for a faster cruising speed than the F-35. Agility wise the delta wing with thrust vectoring would have good instantaneous turn rate. Pretty much the only negative to the design is a low sustained turn rate but i see that being less relevant in the future.

A delta wing with no canards traditionally has a high landing speed. How is that meant to land on an aircraft carrier?
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:12 am

This initial disagreement should not be surprising to anyone and I expect it will be a constant issue if the project does actually move forward. No amount of signed paper and agreements will change the position if 20 years from now Germany, via its Industry, prevents German made components from being delivered to suspect countries operating FCAS or its derivatives.

The project also doesn't make a lot of sense if only France and Germany order the aircraft, especially based on the failed export estimations of the Eurofighter and Rafale from previous developments.


Export constraints emerge as sticking point for future German-French combat aircraft

Franco-German plans for a joint fighter aircraft project may be off to a rocky start, as reports emerged last week about fundamental disagreements between the two partners over export restrictions for such a weapon.

According to a report on the website of the German magazine Der Spiegel, French negotiators made unlimited exportability of the so-called Future Combat Air System a prerequisite for getting started on the project.

The position is at odds with a more restrictive policy by Berlin, where arms deals to sensitive countries traditionally are more heavily scrutinized for the potential of human rights abuses by the recipient government.

The Spiegel based its report on a four-page confidential cable from Germany’s ambassador in Paris, Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut, describing the outcome of a Sept. 21 “crisis meeting” in the French capital.

So deep ran the diverging views at the gathering that Claire Landais, the French secretary-general for defense and national security, threatened to cancel further planning unless Germany would agree to French demands for unconstrained exports of the future combat aircraft, according to the Spiegel.

Airbus CEO Tom Enders, whose company is involved in the planning alongside Dassault Aviation, criticized the reported German insistence on export caveats. “Berlin can’t urge greater European cooperation in its Sunday speeches and then refuse it when concrete projects are taking shape,” he told the magazine.

The idea behind the Future Combat Air System program is to create a sixth-generation aircraft that would eventually help wean European air forces from American-made hardware. A development contract is eyed for the mid-2020s following years of concept studies.
The future weapon is envisioned as a collection of aerial capabilities built around a new fighter aircraft. Supporting systems are eyed to include unmanned aircraft of various types plus a data link architecture connecting all elements.

German arms exports outside NATO and European Union countries have come under renewed fire since Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered by regime agents in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. The Saudi government initially denied knowing about the crime but was forced to acknowledge Khashoggi’s death following weeks of international pressure.

The reported Franco-German disagreement on the exportability of FCAS comes on the heels of an interview by Airbus Defence and Space chief Dirk Hoke in the French business journal La Tribune on Oct. 18. Hoke said Airbus would take leadership of the overall system package of FCAS while Dassault would spearhead the fighter aircraft — a position that has the potential to create additional friction in the project.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... ft-report/
 
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zululima
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:24 am

keesje wrote:
Image

That concept looks good from a first view.

Flat, thrust vectoring, lots of internal volume (spare volume between the engines).


Flat? - Poor stability and maneuverability. This is a fighter, not a bomber. Can you imaging having to land this on a carrier without a proper rudder? I don't see the French building anything that doesn't have carrier capability.

"Spare" volume between the engines? - Not pictured. Clearly a concave surface; maybe some between the inlets.

By appearances this is a small and expensive fighter that isn't good for either dogfighting or air-dominance roles. Expect the final product to differ significantly.
I didn't get a 'Harumph' outta that guy!
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:48 am

zululima wrote:
keesje wrote:
Image

That concept looks good from a first view.

Flat, thrust vectoring, lots of internal volume (spare volume between the engines).


Flat? - Poor stability and maneuverability. This is a fighter, not a bomber. Can you imaging having to land this on a carrier without a proper rudder? I don't see the French building anything that doesn't have carrier capability.

"Spare" volume between the engines? - Not pictured. Clearly a concave surface; maybe some between the inlets.

By appearances this is a small and expensive fighter that isn't good for either dogfighting or air-dominance roles. Expect the final product to differ significantly.


Of course. We can't even estimate size. Maybe it's a 2 seat cockpit and the crew is sitting high like in an F16.

Fighter bomber, range, interdiction, loiter seem priorities (Tornado's).

The Typhoons / Rafales will be there for some time and AAM will get even better,.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:09 am

zululima wrote:
keesje wrote:
Image

That concept looks good from a first view.

Flat, thrust vectoring, lots of internal volume (spare volume between the engines).


Flat? - Poor stability and maneuverability. This is a fighter, not a bomber. Can you imaging having to land this on a carrier without a proper rudder? I don't see the French building anything that doesn't have carrier capability.


Poor maneuverability? Have you seen what the X-31 did (US-German bird) without its vertical stabilizer? That was pretty nimble.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:55 am

tommy1808 wrote:
zululima wrote:
keesje wrote:
Image

That concept looks good from a first view.

Flat, thrust vectoring, lots of internal volume (spare volume between the engines).


Flat? - Poor stability and maneuverability. This is a fighter, not a bomber. Can you imaging having to land this on a carrier without a proper rudder? I don't see the French building anything that doesn't have carrier capability.


Poor maneuverability? Have you seen what the X-31 did (US-German bird) without its vertical stabilizer? That was pretty nimble.

best regards
Thomas

The X-31 has a vertical stabilizer.

You are probably thinking of the X-36, a McDD aircraft. It used FBW controls and thrust vectoring to achieve directional stability.
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:05 am

On the newer 3D TV Su-57 vertical stabalizers have already been halved co,ap[red toF22

It should help the RCS and hasn't made it less maneuverable it seems.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:28 pm

ThePointblank wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
zululima wrote:

Flat? - Poor stability and maneuverability. This is a fighter, not a bomber. Can you imaging having to land this on a carrier without a proper rudder? I don't see the French building anything that doesn't have carrier capability.


Poor maneuverability? Have you seen what the X-31 did (US-German bird) without its vertical stabilizer? That was pretty nimble.

best regards
Thomas

The X-31 has a vertical stabilizer..


later in the program virtually eliminated via FBW and without any effect at high AoA from the start. The "virtual tailless" configuration was so effective that actually removing it never happened (supposed to look like this: https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ac/x-31 ... 2734-6.jpg)

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:31 pm

Ozair wrote:
This initial disagreement should not be surprising to anyone and I expect it will be a constant issue if the project does actually move forward. No amount of signed paper and agreements will change the position if 20 years from now Germany, via its Industry, prevents German made components from being delivered to suspect countries operating FCAS or its derivatives


An open general export license would be the sort of paper that prevents the problem.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:36 pm

A twitter post has indicated that Germany has allocated funding to acquire additional Eurofighters to replace existing Tranche One airframes, keeping the fleet total at 140 jets but allowing the whole fleet to be capable of multi-role operations.

Germany looks to fund additional Eurofighters

Good news! #German parliament paved way for purchasing new @Eurofighter_1 to replace 33 older tranche 1 #Eurofighter today. €2.5 billion earmarked. Will keep German production line open & make entire #EF #Luftwaffe fleet of 140 planes swing-role capable. https://bit.ly/2Pd86Yp

https://twitter.com/WachterBDI/status/1 ... 9580304385

Good news for the German Eurofighter production line and also likely good news for replacing the Tornado with a potential T4 Eurofighter as this extends the line for the additional time required to bring a potential T4 update in.
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:54 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
This initial disagreement should not be surprising to anyone and I expect it will be a constant issue if the project does actually move forward. No amount of signed paper and agreements will change the position if 20 years from now Germany, via its Industry, prevents German made components from being delivered to suspect countries operating FCAS or its derivatives


An open general export license would be the sort of paper that prevents the problem.

Best regards
Thomas

I don't agree that Germany would either agree to sign an open export license or that they would potentially honour it in the face of what could occur.

Further to the export issue for the Franco-German Fighter aircraft is the industrial agreements and workshare which has been identified as a likely sticking point. In summary there are plenty of internal discussions occurring and already the issue of workshare and identifying leads for the respective sub systems is causing some issues.

Europe’s next-gen fighter jet is stuck in the bickering phase

The future Franco-German combat aircraft program is set to begin in earnest early next year, but a key project phase is already in full swing: the bickering.

On the surface, the two main companies involved — Dassault and Airbus — have “a clear common vision on the project,” as an Airbus spokesman put it. But there is also the politicking, the jockeying for position and the mistrust that tends to show itself when there is big money on the table.

That pertains to the second-tier suppliers, with French business weekly Challenges describing a veritable “guerre” — war — between Airbus and French electronics specialist Thales. At issue is who will lead the critical networking segment of the future weapon system, the secret sauce for turning flying pieces of bent metal into the type of lethal aerial “system of systems” that Berlin and Paris want.

Airbus Defence and Space chief Dirk Hoke, a German, claimed that role in a mid-October interview with La Tribune. And while Airbus says Dassault probably wouldn’t take issue with the arrangement, given its leadership of the actual new combat aircraft, the French company has yet to express a position on the delicate division of labor.

The Dassault press office did not respond to several requests for comment.

In many ways, the state of affairs on the Future Combat Air System, or FCAS, reflects the political features of a Franco-German friendship pushing Europe in the direction of a more unified military capability. That is, France does most of the pushing, while Germany falls back on its mechanistic reflexes in policymaking.

To French ears, the German attitude toward the future air weapon may seem downright stoic. That has a lot to do with a mismatch in attitude between the two countries toward military and defense writ large. France traditionally celebrates its defense companies as national champions, whereas in Germany, the arms industry is one of many economic factors, and an often pooh-poohed one at that.

“Based on the existing bilateral declarations between Germany and France, the path forward for the FCAS program is currently being harmonized in close cooperation,” a German Defence Ministry spokesman told Defense News. “This harmonization encompasses especially the coordination of the required studies in 2019 in order to start the program in a targeted and cooperative manner.”

To German ears, the French rumblings, especially in industry, seem unnecessary and premature.

“We are talking about a planning window of 2040 for fielding a follow-on aircraft to the Eurofighter and Rafale,” the spokesman added. That means, there should be plenty of time to sort out work share details.

For now, Airbus is giving the appearance that it’s watching the knife-sharpening on the industrial work share question from a distance.

“Any public discussion about detailed work share is happening way too early,” Airbus spokesman Florian Taitsch said. “Finally the industrial share-out will depend on the investments made by the participating countries. But we need to enter first into a concept study in order to understand which ingredients are required for the common system.”

Besides the industrial rumblings, high-level policy differences between Paris and Berlin are beginning to trickle down to the level of common defense programs. On the issue of exports, for example, French President Emmanuel Macron rejected a recent statement by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that arms exports should be stopped to Saudi Arabia until the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Turkey is fully explained.

The German news outlet Der Spiegel reported last month that disagreements over the exportability of the future FCAS weapon could represent a serious wrinkle in pushing the project forward.

So for now, the industrial “saber-rattling” continues, as one German defense official put it. The question is whether the governments will let it get to them.

As La Tribune suggested in an article about Germany’s alleged “filouteries” — skullduggery — in defense cooperation matters with France, perhaps a session of couples therapy might be in order.

https://www.defensenews.com/industry/20 ... ing-phase/
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:12 am

Ozair wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Ozair wrote:
This initial disagreement should not be surprising to anyone and I expect it will be a constant issue if the project does actually move forward. No amount of signed paper and agreements will change the position if 20 years from now Germany, via its Industry, prevents German made components from being delivered to suspect countries operating FCAS or its derivatives


An open general export license would be the sort of paper that prevents the problem.

Best regards
Thomas

I don't agree that Germany would either agree to sign an open export license or that they would potentially honour it in the face of what could occur.


It would be an international treaty, which makes it directly applicable in domestic courts. Once in force honouring or not stops being a political question.

Further to the export issue for the Franco-German Fighter aircraft is the industrial agreements and workshare which has been identified as a likely sticking point. In summary there are plenty of internal discussions occurring and already the issue of workshare and identifying leads for the respective sub systems is causing some issues.


That is true, and a major stumbling block, but still, once it is sorted out, it is sorted out.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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keesje
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:01 am

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway

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