steman
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 11:51 am

seahawk wrote:
steman wrote:
The Tornado is compatible with US atomic weapons and it´s been so since the beginning. So is the SEAD role. These are not the discriminating factors that will make the F-35 the only option for the Luftwaffe.


They are, because with the Tornado the partner nations were all user of US atomic weapons. Be it through owning some themselves or been given access to them in case of war. So the integration of the necessary equipment and the testing were part of the development and part of a huge combined purchase.

Today it is different. First the theoretical production run of a partnership with France and Sweden would hardly reach 300 (I personally would rather guess less than 200 for all 3 nations combined) frames combined, while the Germans would need to get US approval for the atomic weapons integration and would need to pay for it, while maybe needing 80 (or more like 50) frames. And in addition to needing US approval the French and Swedes would also need to agree to Germany using the design for that role. When it comes to SEAD it is not much different. Neither Sweden nor France have a suitable weapons system. The US has.

I am not a fan of the F-35, but for German needs when it comes to replacing the remaining Tonkas, it is an obvious choice.



I understand and I agree with you. I´m just concerned that Europe is losing the know how necessary to develop indigenous advanced military programs and will have to rely even more on the US to maintain a credible defense. This was ok during cold war times but in my opinion this is just dangerous now.
At least they should start working on a Typhoon replacement and try and involve UK, Italy, Spain and possibly even France. It will be then possible to make it a fully multi role platform capable of replacing air defence as well as attack aircrafts in all partner nations. But they have to start soon because it´s going to take at least 20 years to make it fly operationally. The technical capability is still mostly there. It´s the political will that is lacking.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 11:58 am

YIMBY wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Spain is practically out, as they have clearly stated that the next fighter would not only replace the Hornets but also the Harriers of the Armada. Add the fact, that Germany needs a plane compatible with US atomic weapons and also for the SEAD role it becomes clear that F35 it is.


No, it is far from clear. Selecting a military plane is never a purely technical case, but there are always subtle political dimensions included (and in many parts of the world a lot of corruption, hopefully not here). It may be even a personal issue, and given how much Trump has humiliated Merkel, it would be very hard for her to accept a major deal with the US, unless Trump makes some major concessions. Of course, it may take so much time to finish the deal that neither of them would remain in office.


I seriously hope Germany is above that. The system that matches the needs of the armed forces and offers the best combination of low price and low development risk, should be chosen, regardless of any feeling of politicians that might be hurt. And considering that Germany has bought C-130s and looks set to buy CH-47 or CH-53, I think Trump so far had no influence.

steman wrote:
seahawk wrote:
steman wrote:
The Tornado is compatible with US atomic weapons and it´s been so since the beginning. So is the SEAD role. These are not the discriminating factors that will make the F-35 the only option for the Luftwaffe.


They are, because with the Tornado the partner nations were all user of US atomic weapons. Be it through owning some themselves or been given access to them in case of war. So the integration of the necessary equipment and the testing were part of the development and part of a huge combined purchase.

Today it is different. First the theoretical production run of a partnership with France and Sweden would hardly reach 300 (I personally would rather guess less than 200 for all 3 nations combined) frames combined, while the Germans would need to get US approval for the atomic weapons integration and would need to pay for it, while maybe needing 80 (or more like 50) frames. And in addition to needing US approval the French and Swedes would also need to agree to Germany using the design for that role. When it comes to SEAD it is not much different. Neither Sweden nor France have a suitable weapons system. The US has.

I am not a fan of the F-35, but for German needs when it comes to replacing the remaining Tonkas, it is an obvious choice.


I understand and I agree with you. I´m just concerned that Europe is losing the know how necessary to develop indigenous advanced military programs and will have to rely even more on the US to maintain a credible defense. This was ok during cold war times but in my opinion this is just dangerous now.
At least they should start working on a Typhoon replacement and try and involve UK, Italy, Spain and possibly even France. It will be then possible to make it a fully multi role platform capable of replacing air defence as well as attack aircrafts in all partner nations. But they have to start soon because it´s going to take at least 20 years to make it fly operationally. The technical capability is still mostly there. It´s the political will that is lacking.


I fully agree. The replacement of EF, Rafale and Gripen should be a joint European program. (not that I believe this would happen)
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 12:26 pm

Well maybe times are not so bad for a new project. The Eurofighter was threatened from the beginning because it was developed at the end of the cold war so budget and political constraints were an issue. Now there is a new understanding of an european defense need and Merkel and Macron try to find new fields for cooperation post Brexit. The UK could see its participation as foot in the door.

I fail to see Sweden in that Picture but there certainly is a need for such a project.

Also the germans traditionally dislike one Engine Planes.
 
Slug71
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 18, 2017 4:53 pm

I wonder why countries shopping for fighters aren't looking at the F/C-31. At least the frame. Put some F414 engines and electronics of their choice on there, should be a good fighter.
 
steman
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 19, 2017 6:51 am

Slug71 wrote:
I wonder why countries shopping for fighters aren't looking at the F/C-31. At least the frame. Put some F414 engines and electronics of their choice on there, should be a good fighter.


Because the Chinese will never let you have their frame and slap your own engine on it. Because the cost of such operation it´s almost as high as developing a new frame from scrap. It´s not just about swapping engine and replacing some electronic boards. Because buying fighters from China is still not a politically acceptable option for European Countries and I think the cost of introducing a fighter designed with very different philosophy and systems into a Nato Air Force would be prohibitive.
In my opinion there are only two options for the replacement of the Luftwaffe Tornado: buy the F-35 or develop a new design. As interim one could consider a new version of the Typhoon, dedicated to strike and air-to-ground roles.
 
columba
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 19, 2017 7:35 am

steman wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
. As interim one could consider a new version of the Typhoon, dedicated to strike and air-to-ground roles.

Or the Super Hornet.....
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
steman
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 19, 2017 8:01 am

columba wrote:
steman wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
. As interim one could consider a new version of the Typhoon, dedicated to strike and air-to-ground roles.

Or the Super Hornet.....


Well, in that case the whole argument of trying not to rely on US products would be moot. Then better get some F-35s and work on a future generation to replace them in 20/30 years.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 19, 2017 1:26 pm

Slug71 wrote:
I wonder why countries shopping for fighters aren't looking at the F/C-31. At least the frame. Put some F414 engines and electronics of their choice on there, should be a good fighter.


First, is it for sale ?

The F-22 wasn't.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Slug71
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 19, 2017 3:47 pm

Aesma wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
I wonder why countries shopping for fighters aren't looking at the F/C-31. At least the frame. Put some F414 engines and electronics of their choice on there, should be a good fighter.


First, is it for sale ?

The F-22 wasn't.


IIRC, the export variant is dubbed the F-60.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Fri May 19, 2017 6:39 pm

seahawk wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Spain is practically out, as they have clearly stated that the next fighter would not only replace the Hornets but also the Harriers of the Armada. Add the fact, that Germany needs a plane compatible with US atomic weapons and also for the SEAD role it becomes clear that F35 it is.


No, it is far from clear. Selecting a military plane is never a purely technical case, but there are always subtle political dimensions included (and in many parts of the world a lot of corruption, hopefully not here). It may be even a personal issue, and given how much Trump has humiliated Merkel, it would be very hard for her to accept a major deal with the US, unless Trump makes some major concessions. Of course, it may take so much time to finish the deal that neither of them would remain in office.


I seriously hope Germany is above that. The system that matches the needs of the armed forces and offers the best combination of low price and low development risk, should be chosen, regardless of any feeling of politicians that might be hurt. And considering that Germany has bought C-130s and looks set to buy CH-47 or CH-53, I think Trump so far had no influence.


If any country, the German can separate the feelings from rational decisions. Nevertheless, the politicians have to take into account the feelings of the voters.
You know certainly better than me how well they have succeeded in previous projects (Tornado, Typhoon, A400 etc).

In all other countries, feelings do matter. You might take Canada as an example of a very civilized country that has it very hard to separate facts from feelings, or maybe they do have justified reasons to play games.

More than feelings, however, it is about trust. You have to trust that your supplier will give you support at the crisis, that you will be able to do all necessary maintenance and updates when you need to do, and that no representative of the other party will reveal confidential data to third parties. Certainly nobody trusts Trump on this. Fortunately Trump is not a dictator of the US but has to obey the laws, though he has enough power to hurt and delay any deal or operation to complicate the lives of other parties.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sat May 20, 2017 9:01 am

Considering how baldy the latest Airbus projects did, I think buying from Lockmart is easier to sell at the moment. And as the planes would most likely come from the Italian final assembly and that there will be complete overhaul facility in Europe, I think is easier than suggesting another Airbus project at the moment.
 
WIederling
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 22, 2017 6:54 am

seahawk wrote:
Considering how badly the latest Airbus projects did, I think buying from Lockmart is easier to sell at the moment.


That was the objective of the press attention lavishly spent on the European public.
See Ms. Lügenulla Leyen's gyrations on a range of alleged "defective" military procurements.

The hard reality is slightly different.

Then Europe has decidedly different objectives in general politics than the US.
( The biggest supporters of terrorism ( US, SA, Israel, ..) are currently in a communist kissing spree while exchange expensive gifts.)

Europe is well served to limit procurement from a source that is well known to change loyalties on a whim.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 22, 2017 7:59 am

Changes little in regard to the technical problems of the NH90 / A400.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 22, 2017 8:13 am

The F-35 project isn't well known for being on time and on budget...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
ThePointblank
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 22, 2017 10:06 am

Aesma wrote:
The F-35 project isn't well known for being on time and on budget...

By the time a German order comes along, the F-35 would be fairly mature and in full production.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 22, 2017 11:12 am

Aesma wrote:
The F-35 project isn't well known for being on time and on budget...


But Germany is not asking Lockmart to develop a F-35 for them, they are looking at buying examples that are developed.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 22, 2017 11:15 am

seahawk wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The F-35 project isn't well known for being on time and on budget...


But Germany is not asking Lockmart to develop a F-35 for them, they are looking at buying examples that are developed.


Access to source code will be the interesting question, won´t buy anything containing black box avionics.

best regards
Thomas
Times are changing: 70 years ago the USA went to war to defeat the Nazis, now they elect them to run their country.
 
TheSonntag
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 22, 2017 11:39 am

The F-4 Phantoms in Germany were bought in the early 1970s, at a time when the US was already thinking about phasing them out and replacing them. They were only planned as an interim solution. This interim solution lasted more than 40 years.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Mon May 22, 2017 11:49 am

tommy1808 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The F-35 project isn't well known for being on time and on budget...


But Germany is not asking Lockmart to develop a F-35 for them, they are looking at buying examples that are developed.


Access to source code will be the interesting question, won´t buy anything containing black box avionics.

best regards
Thomas


Says who?
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: RE: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed May 24, 2017 2:55 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
The problem with lots of 'cheap' stuff is that its so much easier to swat out of the sky. Let's say you have a dozen F-22s in the air. Cheap would be a bunch of older F-16s. How man F-16s are those F-22s going to take out before even one F-16 gets close to one of the F-22s?

If you then put the avionics to a comparable level suddenly those 'cheap' aircraft are not that much cheaper as most of the costs are in the avionics.

So you then turn around and say that only one F-16 needs to get through to the airbase to make life difficult for those F-22s? Well the same applies in reverse. And in the age of mass cruise missile spam it's even easier to hit anything that looks like an airstrip and make life difficult.

Personally I think many countries haven't got out of the way of thinking when aircraft were being made obsolete at an obscene rate. During the early jet age just how many designs were being developed and brought into service before being retired only a decade later? Really the focus should be put into more risk sensible development. Like when you build a new airframe put existing avionics into it. Then after that's in production iterate the avionics to take full advantage of the airframe. More Hornet to Super Hornet jumps instead of Eagle to Raptor.

Or you have a couple of high end fighters backed by a bunch of cheaper ones.... the high end fighter flys ahead of the other ones picks up the enemy and directs the cheaper fighters to engage with long range missiles. So for half the cost you can negate the advantage or match the cost and overwhelm with numbers.

For this however UAV are going to be the future - why risk a pilot on a bombing run?
57 types. 38 countries. 24 airlines.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed May 24, 2017 6:19 am

For which missions exactly a remodified Typhoon would not be sufficient?

Long-range low-altitude strike to a high-thread zone in developing countries?
 
Ozair
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Wed May 24, 2017 9:26 am

tommy1808 wrote:

Access to source code will be the interesting question, won´t buy anything containing black box avionics.

best regards
Thomas

For what purpose? I can already tell you Germany wouldn't get source code access. If the intent is to integrate weapons then the F-35 will have UAI by the time Germany could be a customer. If the intent is EW then the open architecture allows for this to be done without access to source code, as is being done by the IDF.
 
petertenthije
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Re: RE: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 25, 2017 7:57 am

Zkpilot wrote:
Or you have a couple of high end fighters backed by a bunch of cheaper ones.... the high end fighter flys ahead of the other ones picks up the enemy and directs the cheaper fighters to engage with long range missiles. So for half the cost you can negate the advantage or match the cost and overwhelm with numbers.

If you only need a platform for your long range missiles, then you might as well skip the low end fighters entirely and strap the missiles onto the cheapest platform you can find. Whether that be UAVs, 737s, C-130s, An-2s or Piper Cubs.
Attamottamotta!
 
aviationaware
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Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Thu May 25, 2017 11:22 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Access to source code will be the interesting question, won´t buy anything containing black box avionics.


Germany is relying on strategy consultants (McKinsey and other college kids) to help make procurement decisions. If you think black boxes will deter any procurement decision, you might want to reconsider.

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