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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:27 am

zanl188 wrote:
Everything is stacked down in Boca Chica. I’d post a pix if I could.


It was. It's unstacked again. They never did get the gap all the way closed. It looks like a little adjusting is in order.

Image
 
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ITMercure
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:24 am

That thing sure looks like it comes from a 1949 SF comic book !!!
 
zanl188
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:21 am

ITMercure wrote:
That thing sure looks like it comes from a 1949 SF comic book !!!


Von Braun & Ley will be doing the graveyard happy dance when this thing flies!
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parapente
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Wed Jan 09, 2019 10:31 am

Confused! What's the point of stacking it all together when they haven't put anything. -like fuel tanks for instance - in it yet.Or is it ( as they have found out) simply for fit n' finish purposes and then it will be disassembled for fitting out?
But either way Buck Rogers eat your heart out ( or Dan Dare if you are British)!
Gotta take your hat off to this fella ,he keeps us all guessing and amused.But no doubt about it he is in one hell of a rush for reasons best known to himself.
 
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Tugger
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Wed Jan 09, 2019 3:12 pm

It does look just bit of oh so hokey doesn't it? :-) It reminds me of that old Andy Griffith show "Salvage 1"
Image

But I gotta say, it also reminds me of the early days of flight when barn mechanics would cobble together planes just based on basic plans and math and their intuition and then fly them (or try to).

Of course I say "reminds me of" but it of course really isn't, it is a billion dollar task undertaken by thousands of degree'd engineers and highly skilled technicians etc.

Still it is showing that it is not only a job to be done by overly cautious, max profit demanding, military industrial complex embedded corporations.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
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parapente
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:40 am

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-elon-m ... e-by-june/

My God it's finished already and now Elon states the full sized one could be ready in June! Beyond belief really.
He is in a serious ( Starlink/SLS) rush!
And the confusion! Some have spotted full diameter 9 mtr tanks being welded on site -yet the craft has been welded shut.Others ( logically) believe they will 'simply' use F9 tanks and insert them from underneath.These engines may simply be placeholders.Either way it will need fuel! And clearly the main fuel storage tanks are on site.
Feb/March 'hop' really is looking possible.Hope nothing goes wrong as no time margin for error.
 
Trololzilla
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:23 pm

Successful launch of Iridium NEXT-8, the final Iridium launch. Another successful droneship landing, as well.
 
GDB
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:35 pm

Yes, enjoyed the show;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VshdafZvwrg

1st stage previously used last September, just under two years since the first of eight Iridium launches.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:32 pm

By the way, seven weeks ago the hopper looked like this. The speed with which these guy threw this beast together is unreal.

Image
Image
 
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ITMercure
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:03 pm

Meanwhile, SpaceX just announced they will furlough 600 people (10% of their workforce)...
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:37 pm

ITMercure wrote:
Meanwhile, SpaceX just announced they will furlough 600 people (10% of their workforce)...


Fire, not furlough. https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/01 ... r-company/
 
parapente
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:23 pm

As always thanks Nomadd.I guess internal installation next.It looks like those rockets bells are placeholders but could be 110% wrong of course.

10% of the workforce -600 people. Mmmm big cut.Mind you if F9's B5's are economic to refurb multiple times then they just won't need the new build capacity.i guess Jeff B can always hire them when he's finished in court!
 
aviationaware
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:30 am

After having seen it many times and knowing how it works, it still fills me with awe and disbelief how they can land a rocket from space on what's basically no more than glorified helipad.

What also fills me with disbelief is how they can routinely manage such an awe inspiring feat yet can't seem to be able to get a stable camera connection to work. There must be ways.
 
GDB
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:27 pm

aviationaware wrote:
After having seen it many times and knowing how it works, it still fills me with awe and disbelief how they can land a rocket from space on what's basically no more than glorified helipad.

What also fills me with disbelief is how they can routinely manage such an awe inspiring feat yet can't seem to be able to get a stable camera connection to work. There must be ways.


Not a lot you can do about the blast of those rockets on landing affecting the signals from the camera on the drone ship.
It only affects the signal briefly, within seconds it is restored and the 1st stage can be seen on deck.
 
parapente
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:46 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 00-million

https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/11/1817 ... t-starship

https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/18/1787 ... rew-dragon

A lot of interesting things going on at Spacex right now.
Obviously the break neck speed of the Starship hopper.Some have said that this us tied in with the recent round of additional funding,but that's pure speculation.
However the dropping of Goldman Sachs to handle it was a complete surprise.First it was for $500m then $750 then speculated at the end $250.As the terms of the loan were onerous.Who can exactly say as most is shrouded in secrecy.But Bloomberg and others have done some math on the company.
Whilst as J Shotwell always says-it is profitable but exactly by how much is v hard to say.Some have done fag packet calculations on income based on 20-24 ( absolute max) commercial flights per year.If they charge rough fully $60 m a flight they suggest that perhaps half ( max) is profit.So you get a number.Its nice but not such that you can build a Starlink and BFR programme on it.Which we know as Elon is constantly having to go to Wall Street for more loan money.
Note whether there really are a solid 24 commercial mission requirements ( they are never going to win all launches or anything like -govt's) is not proven either -and there is big competition on the horizon...

So perhaps it's no surprise that 10% of the staff (600+ people) are going to be made redundant.It clearly means profit margins have to be improved to satisfy investors.
On top of that 7 very senior members of the Starlink senior management were fired just a few months ago as progress was not quick enough.Again that sends its own message about just what is critical.It all ties in with the hopper accelerated programme imho.
It's also worth reading exactly how Starlink is supposed to work.It could but it's ( laser broad band comm's between low earth sats) totally new and unproven.They have two space competitors and would be stupid to think the ground based giants of fibre optics will just pack up and go home.

The final. Article linked above I thought was interesting.Space tourism. This could be a very good way to increase gross income and profit imho ( and the Verge).
Elon hasn't mentioned a word about tourism. - and rightly so as the Dragon space capsule is not certified -yet.NASA never needed a 7 man capsule.4 was their request/demand.Spacex went for 7.At a totally rough number.If you charge $60m for a launch and you put in 6 tourists and one trained astronaut - at $10m a pop ,yup you get your $60m income and $30m profit.Of course it's far far more complicated than that!

But imho these 10 min parabolic high altitude rocket plane shots are a joke for $250k a pop. Now an hour circling the planet.Thats real space real astronaut stuff.And real time to take it all in.There are imho plenty of people who would willingly pay a load more than $10 m to really spend time in real orbiting space.
Don't think we will see/hear about it this year.Needs to get full NASA approval and full success.But after that? I can see that such a business could guarantee a min of 24 launches per year going forwards with any shortfall filled with these tourist flights.
Mind you it's still not nearly enough for BFR fullbdevelopment ( even Elon recognises the costs) but it could guarantee one source of income from the F9 programme.
Makes you wonder.If he really wanted loads of money quickly -say 2020/1 he could demerge the two/three projects into 2/3companies.SpacexFalcon and SpacexStarship and perhaps SpacexStarlink in the future.
The former simply becoming a commercial launch company.Its use for Mars will be over.Could be worth a load of money considering the profitability it could generate.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:13 pm

aviationaware wrote:
What also fills me with disbelief is how they can routinely manage such an awe inspiring feat yet can't seem to be able to get a stable camera connection to work. There must be ways.


I once inquired about a ship-based satellite link. As it turns out, the antenna accuracy required to maintain full bandwidth is ridiculously tight. We're talking about 1 degree, give or take. And even in optimal conditions, the bandwidth is not that high and given the complex antenna stabilization and aiming system required, the cost / kbps is ridiculously high.

It's not hard to see why the vibration caused by a massive landing rocket would be enough to overwhelm a stabilization system that's designed to cope with rough seas at most.

I suppose they could harden the whole thing and send the data via a relay ship nearby, but how much money do they want to spend on providing us with a few seconds of video that's of little operational use anyway?

What bothers me is that whereas the video link stops, the footage is recorded on the ship anyway. Yet they don't seem to bother to publish the landing videos afterwards. Unless I missed it.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:45 am

Francoflier wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
What also fills me with disbelief is how they can routinely manage such an awe inspiring feat yet can't seem to be able to get a stable camera connection to work. There must be ways.


I once inquired about a ship-based satellite link. As it turns out, the antenna accuracy required to maintain full bandwidth is ridiculously tight. We're talking about 1 degree, give or take. And even in optimal conditions, the bandwidth is not that high and given the complex antenna stabilization and aiming system required, the cost / kbps is ridiculously high.

It's not hard to see why the vibration caused by a massive landing rocket would be enough to overwhelm a stabilization system that's designed to cope with rough seas at most.

I suppose they could harden the whole thing and send the data via a relay ship nearby, but how much money do they want to spend on providing us with a few seconds of video that's of little operational use anyway?

What bothers me is that whereas the video link stops, the footage is recorded on the ship anyway. Yet they don't seem to bother to publish the landing videos afterwards. Unless I missed it.

The problem is that they insist on using crappy Intellian ku band antennas. We finally got rid of ours and got SeaTels, which can handle ten times the vibration.
 
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Nomadd
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:48 am

Nomadd wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
What also fills me with disbelief is how they can routinely manage such an awe inspiring feat yet can't seem to be able to get a stable camera connection to work. There must be ways.


I once inquired about a ship-based satellite link. As it turns out, the antenna accuracy required to maintain full bandwidth is ridiculously tight. We're talking about 1 degree, give or take. And even in optimal conditions, the bandwidth is not that high and given the complex antenna stabilization and aiming system required, the cost / kbps is ridiculously high.

It's not hard to see why the vibration caused by a massive landing rocket would be enough to overwhelm a stabilization system that's designed to cope with rough seas at most.

I suppose they could harden the whole thing and send the data via a relay ship nearby, but how much money do they want to spend on providing us with a few seconds of video that's of little operational use anyway?

What bothers me is that whereas the video link stops, the footage is recorded on the ship anyway. Yet they don't seem to bother to publish the landing videos afterwards. Unless I missed it.

The problem is that they insist on using crappy Intellian ku band antennas. We finally got rid of ours and got SeaTels, which can handle ten times the vibration.


I'm not sure what system you looked at, but the stabilized ku band antennas use the same sat circuits you'd use on land. a 1 meter antenna usually brings in 3mbs. The ridiculously expensive ones are usually S band Inmarsat type that are priced at dollars per megabyte.
 
parapente
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:04 pm

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-10-per ... -launches/

Teslerati's take on the 10% (600+) redundancies.For a website that loves Spacex ( and why not) there are some pretty harsh words on the way they went about it.
Equally important are the questions being asked by investors.It appears (Bloomberg) that Spacex is simply not profitable at the moment.
This move would ensure b/e or small profit.
Of course many might say that this is not the point right now.But...
They are now nearly launching commercially as many as the market will bear (20PA) and increasingly these are Flight proven.So the theory of refurbishment should be playing out about now,
Refurbing has only really been tried once- The Shuttle - and of course that didn't work out.But times have changed.But no one has any idea on refurb' costs at Spacex.
From an investors POV the 'prize' must (now) be Starlink.As 'money men' they really won't be the slightest bit interested in 'going to Mars' - no obvious ROI there.So the Starship 'pitch' 'must' be based on a commercial return.Are they thinking that this could be done ( but slower) using F9's? Who knows.Its not as if anyone else has a faster way of getting multi sat's up there fast.
As stated above one could float SpacexF9/FH on the market and raise a load of capital.But not The BFR project unless it's intrinsicly linked to Starlink.
Interesting times.He will need a load of wonga from somewhere pretty soon.The guesstimate cost of Heavy lift/Starship development is (Elon) approx $5billion.....
 
JHwk
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:53 pm

parapente wrote:
Teslerati's take on the 10% (600+) redundancies.For a website that loves Spacex ( and why not) there are some pretty harsh words on the way they went about it.

Yeah, sounds to me like a few senior people in HR needed to go, so they went for a pretty soulless approach. SpaceX has a lot of eyes and a lot of pressure on them to succeed, and a couple delayed launches can easily kill the year’s profit potential and damage investor confidence.

Was 2020 the year they expected a lull in launches?
 
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casinterest
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:42 pm

JHwk wrote:
parapente wrote:
Teslerati's take on the 10% (600+) redundancies.For a website that loves Spacex ( and why not) there are some pretty harsh words on the way they went about it.

Yeah, sounds to me like a few senior people in HR needed to go, so they went for a pretty soulless approach. SpaceX has a lot of eyes and a lot of pressure on them to succeed, and a couple delayed launches can easily kill the year’s profit potential and damage investor confidence.

Was 2020 the year they expected a lull in launches?


The layoffs were absolutely not handled well. The HR team in charge of it should be dismissed as well. They lost 12-24 hours of productivity and lost some mind share from all of their employees. As much as everyone thinks it may have been a culling of the weakest, there were probably whole departments with very good resources let go.

At least they all got 2 months severance in California. not sure about Texas or Florida.

Maybe with some money and lending for the BFR/Starship they can get some back and recruit more talent.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 
parapente
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Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:22 pm

The saved money is small fry.fact.Its more about a guaranteed return on capital.Showing what they are prepared to do to get it.The money men always get what they want and he needs them -- badly.
Hopefully they will. all be ok ,the market is hot for their talent right now.

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