I'm not sure about demand but Boutique is doing EAS with 24x weekly MSL-ATL/BNA but they're going to use a 12x weekly PNS to replace BNA: https://beta.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2000-7856-0233 They're receiving a little under $3 million in subsidies each year for operating the 24 frequencies....
Jump to postI continue to be shocked that there is/was enough air traffic to support 3 commercial airports within 120ish miles/2.5 hours of each other in the FL Panhandle, let alone 1 carrier serving all 3. I would imagine most of the "Redneck Riviera's" customer base to be people within driving dist...
Jump to postJAN is a real surprise...as it doesn't produce a lot of leisure travel. Most of their most recent adds tend to favor places that will have good leisure flows...SAV and COS meet follow this trend. But JAN does not. However, good news for JAN at least winning some service back. I think part of this is...
Jump to post**UA IAD-PNS DEC 0>0.5[0] JAN 0>0.2[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.8[0] UA is definitely scrounging for leisure traffic wherever they can find it, but nice to see a new route. UA flew this before for a few years back in the 2010-13 timeframe. Once AA added DCA-PNS, UA quickly bailed. It'll be interesting ...
Jump to posthttps://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/293721/united-expands-washington-dulles-domestic-routes-in-nov-2020/ This seems like a pretty safe addition for the IAD hub, especially the EYW route. I agree that IAD-EYW is pretty safe and should do well. I'm surprised UA would bring back IAD-CAK....
Jump to postWN DAL-PNS SEP 1.4>2[1.0] WN HOU-PNS SEP 1.3>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.2[1.0] Interesting to see the close in adds by WN at PNS. Looking at the schedules, it looks like WN was close to overselling (relative to the limited seating capacity) some of the HOU and DAL flights and realized they needed another sect...
Jump to postPer Google Maps, MOB is 12 miles from downtown Mobile, its really not that far. Wouldn't it be cheaper than $400 million to just build a 4-lane highway for those 12 miles? Assuming a speed limit of 65mph, that's about an 11 minute drive. From a quick Google search, an interstate-grade highway in ur...
Jump to postAs for the passenger count, the master plan had ~640k enplanements (1.28 million total) by 2040, and the terminal cost was estimated at $160 million. I would imagine this increase includes the capture of most the non-beach Baldwin county traffic away from PNS as well as maybe minimal additional Bal...
Jump to postI think it's the logical move and will help attract a few more passengers, but the added expense could be a challenge. Spending that much money for an airport that will only move a few hundred thousand passengers a year could be a problem. While they'll probably get some help from FAA, I doubt FAA w...
Jump to postYou can't judge long-term productivity on the basis of a few anecdotes and four months of observation. Real economists are smart enough not to do that even if execs focused on quarterly earnings and stock price are not. I suspect - as put forward by DL's Bastian - that some meaningful fraction of b...
Jump to post[*] Not sure if this will show up here next week, but JonNYC just tweeted that another 10% cut for domestic flights is coming for AA in August. Bookings must be looking really bad right now. AA had been the most aggressive of the legacies in adding capacity, so I would expect more cuts from them in ...
Jump to postWN PNS-STL SEP 0.2>0.6[0.1] It appears WN is launching new daily service for PNS-STL in September. A bit unusual given that traffic tends to quiet down then. Though I’d argue that after DAL, BNA and HOU, STL was the next most logical add. It only runs for about six weeks, but still an interesting a...
Jump to postWN PNS-STL SEP 0.2>0.6[0.1] It appears WN is launching new daily service for PNS-STL in September. A bit unusual given that traffic tends to quiet down then. Though I’d argue that after DAL, BNA and HOU, STL was the next most logical add. It only runs for about six weeks, but still an interesting an...
Jump to postWhat is the allergy of sending PQI service back to somewhere geographically relevant, such as BOS? As much as IAD feeds into an air hub wouldn't it be economical to run something to the cultural and economic hub of the region? PQI-IAD was started two months ago so this is just an extension. The rea...
Jump to postWelp the thread got deleted twice, so I'll try and post it here. I thought I cleared up the issues the first time but alas: -Break even load factor is 25% at $35 fuel, got as low as 9% (given CARES act grant & other cost cutting measures) The question becomes what happens on Oct 1 when CARES ac...
Jump to postIn small leisure markets like PNS, it's amazing how aggressive WN is being already. WN has seven departures from PNS today (3x DAL, 3x BNA, 1x HOU)...a typical Friday last June was only 4x (1x DAL, 2x BNA and 1x HOU). Many of these are extra segments, not originally planned for and I realized WN is ...
Jump to postLooks like AA is right-sizing their schedule after being criticized for flying so many near empty flights;, lots of cuts. I suspect DFW's newly bestowed title as the world's busiest airport won't last. I noticed that too. Funny how the press release about AA adding flights sparked a rally for airli...
Jump to postWN ATL-FLL JUL 2>3[4] WN ATL-RSW JUL 1.0>1.9[1.7] AUG 1.6>1.9[1.8] WN AUS-LAX JUL 1.0>1.9[1.7] WN BNA-CHS JUL 1.0>1.9[1.4] AUG 1.2>1.5[1.1] WN BNA-DEN JUL 4>5[6] WN BNA-ECP JUL 3>4[2] WN BNA-JAX JUL 1.0>1.9[3] WN BNA-ORF JUL 0>0.9[0.3] AUG 0.2>0.5[0.3] WN BNA-PNS JUL 1.9>3[2] WN BWI-PWM JUL 3>4[4] W...
Jump to postAlso, I think everyone ismaking a bigger deal about about the WN ATL gate situation when it’s really much ado about nothing. For the number of gates they have in ATL they haven’t been utilized to the extent they were back in the FL Air Tran days. Plenty of room to increase turns/productivity. And d...
Jump to postInteresting that F9 is planning more flights on DEN-PNS this July than they had last July.
Jump to postI'm quite surprised that F9 is resuming ORD-PNS. I'm a little surprised too, but I'm guessing F9 is taking advantage of cuts by other carriers. Pre COVID-19, WN/AA/UA all had flights from Chicago (ORD/MDW) to PNS. All three dumped those flights at least in June. I think F9 sees a window. It's only ...
Jump to postNo surprise DL would do this consolidation. I also note that there’s nine more markets DL says they are applying to consolidate. Could be really bad for some of these airports where almost every major could theoretically abandon them for larger metros.
Jump to postInteresting strategy by UA regarding IAD and EWR. Most smaller markets stay connected only to IAD in May, not EWR. IAD even gains a brand new route (IAD-PQI)!!
Jump to postYes, southwest has been slower to cancel than everyone else. I suppose that's due to their superior cash position. But their current burn rate is too fast (GK said the CARES money will only last them 2 months!), they will be cutting fast and furious. WN has been very slow in reacting to this imo. N...
Jump to postInteresting they want to can VPS temporarily, though I guess the traffic is almost all leisure and they could still carry passengers from PNS/ECP.
Jump to postMuch of this IAD-SEA increase by UA was driven by a price war on the IAD-SEA route. Both AS and DL had been adding capacity on the IAD-SEA route and the 777 was part of UA's response. Last summer, when the price war heated up, UA added a 4th flight on IAD-SEA. However, for this year, I think UA was ...
Jump to postFormer Brewton, Alabama resident here. Like most of you, I can't see Gulf Shores getting AND maintaining scheduled passenger air service now, or even after the new terminal is built. However, some smaller steps are possible, like less-than-weekly service by Boutique Air, Silver Airways or Southern ...
Jump to postThe close-in adds on IAD-LAS/MIA are interesting...spare capacity from the China cuts trickling down?
The extra IAD-LAS flight is only 30minutes from another IAD-LAS flight. Plus it’s a 752 which is unusual for that route.
Just saw on airlineroute that UA is putting the high density 772 on IAD-SEA all summer. Interesting to say the least, but with the seasonal cruise demand, not very surprising. Well it’s partly because there’s a bit of a war going on the IAD-SEA route. AS will be up to 3x and DL up to 2x. Last summe...
Jump to postD L X wrote:Atlwarrior wrote:Man those kids about to get paid.
I bet they get a free trip to Atlanta.
Well sure, if it weren't for the MAX debacle, a lot of things at a lot of airlines would be very different. That aside, I still don't see UA doubling their operations at IAD in the near future. Between DCA's proximity to downtown D.C. and the wealthy inner suburbs and WN's huge operation at BWI, th...
Jump to postSRT75 wrote:Great news for both LOT and IAD. Although looks like flights are timed for Europe connections through WAW, not connections on the US side. (Arrival into IAD is too late for most connections on UA).
LOT starting IAD/WAW on June 2. Looks like three times per week on a 787. Nice way to close out the year. Nice add for IAD....joining Iberia and Swiss in 2020. Looks like the LOT flights are timed perfectly to connect to UA's late evening bank arriving IAD at 8:30pm and leaving at 10:25pm. Plus, th...
Jump to postI think Crains has it backwards. Growth has slowed due to the terminals (esp T5) bursting at the seams. The runway reconfig reduced runway congestion and so we saw good growth rates for several years until we hit terminal constraints. The reduced growth rate in a good economy gives *more* support t...
Jump to postOf course they are in business to make money, not to amuse a.net nor to give Omaha hope they could support an Austin flight. But it does make you wonder if the number of good opportunities which will work for them are shrinking. Yeah, I think eventually F9 is going to run out of city pairs to try a...
Jump to postIf true, it’s a big blow for BFM to lose F9. I think they were hoping an LCC would give the new airport a boost.
I’m not surprised PNS-ORD failed. 2x weekly was never going to work against UA running daily.
Thanks for this amazing post. Took me a good 1/2 hr to read it. My take is: -It looks like the big winners of this update are PWM, ECP, PNS and (dare I say) ATL; and -I think we can safely put to rest now any assumptions about EVP’s future within WN. ECP/PNS are mostly just yearly seasonal adds. I ...
Jump to postHappy to finally see BWI-PNS...even if it's only seasonal. This summer PNS will have daily service to BNA/DAL/HOU and now BWI...plus weekend service to AUS/STL/MDW/MCI/DEN. Some of the ATL routes are quite surprising....like ATL-CHS and ATL-ECP. These are going to create a firestorm with Delta...eve...
Jump to postIt’ll be interesting to see if IAD-SEA can really sustain all that capacity. With UA at 4x, AS at 3x and DL at 2x, that’s nine flights a day in summer. Even considering connecting flows at each end, it’s a lot of capacity. Five years ago, there were only 3x flights daily on this route...all UA.
Jump to postI understand Spirit's complaint, but not sure it's totally valid. Didn't Frontier just add a slew of new flights from EWR after WN's announced departure? How did they get those times? A few of WN's departure times during peak periods probably do need to go away to try and reduce late afternoon/early...
Jump to postUA IAD-ROA MAY 3>4[2] JUN 3>4[2] JUL 3>4[2] AUG 3>4[2] SEP 3>4[2] This is small potatoes in the grand scheme of things, but I have never seen this route at 4x. Like, ever. It's been cut from 3x to 2x for a while, now they're suddenly doubling it?! Wonder if it's an error. Most UAX flights or even s...
Jump to postWN BWI-OKC FEB 0.8>0.3[0.9] :banghead: :bomb: :mad: The screwing of OKC continues by WN. Seriously - have UA's OKC-IAD and AA's OKC-DCA taken that much traffic away from WN? Pretty drastic cutbacks by WN lately. Well WN also flies OKC-DCA 1x daily. Just a few years ago, there were no flights on OKC...
Jump to postI think the most impressive thing for DL is that they deliver very strong numbers even though they've spent the past few years building up brand new hubs (SEA/BOS) which will normally erode your margins. Consider that UA and AA will both deliver good numbers too (UA better than AA at this point), bu...
Jump to postThe funny part is that United just cut IAD-PHL last fall, so they are quickly bringing it back. Nice to see IAD-PBI added....UA is slowly rebuilding the IAD-Florida routes. At one point, all UA had was IAD-MCO/TPA/JAX. By this winter, they'll have IAD-MCO/TPA/JAX/FLL/MIA/RSW/SRQ/PBI. IAD-CAK will be...
Jump to postATL-MEM is surprising. Given ATL-BNA hasn’t done particularly well, I’m surprised WN would try this route.
Jump to postYeah, this seems like a waste...particularly with commercial service eventually shifting over from MOB to BFM. I just don't think the Gulf Coast region needs another commercial service airport with MOB/BFM/PNS/VPS/ECP...all in proximity. <quote>Gulf Shores just seems like a driving beach to me. Most...
Jump to postIn some respects, I could see PNS-EWR being moved to IAD....it didn't perform great from EWR anyway and on-time performance was abysmal. However, PNS-IAD is problematic because AA's PNS-DCA 2x daily will likely take all the O&D market. In fact, UA originally flew PNS-IAD (back in the 2010 timefr...
Jump to postI'm surprised Swiss doesn't already fly IAD-ZRH. UA & LX both fly ZRH-EWR/SFO. In October 1996, Swissair flew IAD-BOS-ZRH twice a week on the 743. it is part of the deal I guess. Another angle of the issue is that why BRU and IAD is only served by UA... SN flies IAD-BRU, along with UA. Almost a...
Jump to postAs noted in another thread, CapeAir is starting PWM-BOS In September. A bit funny that Portland got BOS service before BTV I know the BTV management is laser-focused on getting a Delta CRJ to serve that route. I don’t think they ever sought 9-seat CapAir Cessna; not the niche they’re looking to fil...
Jump to postELM, ITH, AVP, MHT, LEX, CHA we’re all shifted over from EWR to IAD, but these were all recent not merger.
Jump to post