Search found 728 matches

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by olle
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 124
Views: 17966

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

The 779 will need to show a real nice introduction with numbers on or over expectations while the 35k comes closer and closer 77w in performance each day with much less weight and fuel consumtion.

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by olle
Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

The main question here that is asked: "fast enough?" The current considered run of 1300 frames will probably not recover all investments and production cost, the USD 30 billion. So now we talk about what 1500? 1800? frames before all is repaid. This is probably total OK if the current gene...

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by olle
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 124
Views: 17966

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Would it not be smarter for LH to skip the 777x? The deposits can be changed to 787 used into the LH group.

Also LH has complained about the 777x to much is defined by ME3. Perhaps the A350 9 and 10 improvements and better then expected performance is giving results?

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by olle
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

sxf24 wrote:

Yeah, just because the RR 7000 is based on the TEN does not mean it is as efficient.


What is the difference in efficiency between RR1000 RR1000TEN RR7000?

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by olle
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 124
Views: 17966

Re: LH apparently cancel 14 of 34 779s

Well top management of LH has been talking about that LH has too many 779 on order. Independent if it is correct that the 34 options for 779 lapsed this means no more 779 to LH. If 20 779 go down to let say 12-15 frames how do LH do its purchases from Boeing? 748 seems to be an error now 779 seems t...

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by olle
Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Considering that until today the 2 most successful production runs, B777 and the A330/340 has around 2000 produced / on order how many 100 787 can be considered as early examples?

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by olle
Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders
Replies: 255
Views: 63596

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders

It seems that Airbus and Boeing has overestimated Widebody market in general.

777x is supposed to be produced 10 per month.

A350 10 per month

787 14 per month

A330 6-7 per month....

How long time will this work?

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by olle
Fri Jul 21, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

The biggest challenge to selling the 787 is a lack of availability. The number of A330neo sales is anemic as most airlines understand there is no opportunity to finance the aircraft: it is a good airplane, but with such a niche engine/operator market that the residual value will poor. Strong demand...

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by olle
Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

What has been described is a clear business case for A333Neo. Can be produced and sold for USD 100 million. If A333NEO is 30-40% less expensive compared to B789 and with efficiency within 1-2% from B789 for 80-90% of its missions, it will be sold in big quantities as long as Boeing need to handle it...

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by olle
Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament
Replies: 207
Views: 3258

Re: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament

Still what happens with Services? And passporting for UK finance sector? If the UK wants to have access to the EU financial markets, they will have to comply to all the rules and it is up to the UK to decide if they want that or not. Same goes to services to some extent. So why do UK / US financial...

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by olle
Mon Jul 17, 2017 7:22 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament
Replies: 207
Views: 3258

Re: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament

Still what happens with Services? And passporting for UK finance sector?

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by olle
Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament
Replies: 207
Views: 3258

Re: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament

I think that for EU it will be a good thing that UK leaves and get a Norway like position. UK has blocked EU development during years and it seems like Germany and France now can move EU into something more advanced for Schengen, economic area, defence etc. If UK opts to apply again to EU in one gen...

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by olle
Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament
Replies: 207
Views: 3258

Re: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament

The UK still dont get it; European parlament has 3 major checks before accepting UK - Eu starting negotiating a trade deal. And this trade deal if similar to Eu Japan will not include services; fail one of this 3 subjects and EU will not accept any divorce bill; Ireland - UK border handling EU citi...

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by olle
Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament
Replies: 207
Views: 3258

Re: Theresa May's plans for EU citizens branded a 'damp squib' by the European Parliament

The UK still dont get it; European parlament has 3 major checks before accepting UK - Eu starting negotiating a trade deal. And this trade deal if similar to Eu Japan will not include services; fail one of this 3 subjects and EU will not accept any divorce bill; Ireland - UK border handling EU citiz...

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by olle
Wed Jul 12, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 901
Views: 142122

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

https://leehamnews.com/2017/07/10/a380plus-first-analysis-part-2/ "The A380Plus improvements makes the A380 competitive on Cash Operating seat mile Costs with the Boeing 777-9." NO! It cannot be! After all a common a-net wisdom is that even NEOing the A380 is not enough. We need new wings...

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by olle
Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 901
Views: 142122

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

Smoke coming up from EK, RR and Airbus and we try to read from the smoke... 1. RR says we have a new gen engines 2025. A380 with more efficient engines then B779 is better then the XWB engines. 2. EK says we want X% more efficient A380 at least match the B779. We see this happens with NEO. They also...

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by olle
Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 901
Views: 142122

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

According to Leeham the proposed changes do bring the A380 level with the estimated CASM of the 777-9. How will purchase price for a A380+ and B779 be per unit and per seat? If CASM is similar and a A380+ with similar costs as todays A380 compared to a B779 with big investments in new wing etc the ...

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by olle
Sun Jul 09, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Donald Trump is 'blocking' a G20 agreement because it has a line about climate change
Replies: 56
Views: 934

Re: Donald Trump is 'blocking' a G20 agreement because it has a line about climate change

Changing to self driving electrical cars and trucks from todays fossil fuel based transport system is compared to changing from horse and wagon 100 years ago. How much productivity will be lost in USA? My guess is that USA petrol based GOP is too late to change anything. It is like promote pen and p...

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by olle
Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Airbus beefs up A350-1000, A350-900
Replies: 53
Views: 14607

Re: Airbus beefs up A350-1000, A350-900

How will A350-10 compare to the B77W with these new figures?

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by olle
Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Investment and ROI 737max vs 320neo family
Replies: 1
Views: 690

Investment and ROI 737max vs 320neo family

Now we start to see a defined 737max vs 320neo families.

How much is invested in the families?

When will the investme ts be repaid?

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by olle
Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 901
Views: 142122

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

What Airbus is doing here is to make it possible that EKs early A380s is being replaced by A380+. I would like to know if the B77W vs A380 and B779 vs A380+ differense in efficiency is maintained in this way. I can also see that a A380+ becomes even cheaper per seat compared to B779 with major inves...

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by olle
Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'
Replies: 901
Views: 142122

Re: Airbus is examining 'A380-Plus'

13% more efficient per seat i huge number. Will this recreate the A380 as the most efficient widebody per seat again? In 2025 with a NEO treatment this will put the A380 into its own leage. As I remember it Emirates asked for similar numbers when they talked about 200 A380s. Now they get similar num...

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by olle
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Trump expected to withdraw from the Paris agreement
Replies: 420
Views: 8732

Re: Trump expected to withdraw from the Paris agreement

The question is not the Paris agreement to be or not to be. When the agreements was defined around 2010 with the negotiations in Copenhagen the world looked very different at 2025 compared to the 2025 vision we have today. Even major oil companies start talking about that not peak oil will be reache...

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by olle
Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:26 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: United Kingdom General Election
Replies: 220
Views: 4842

Re: United Kingdom General Election

The problem is that the A50 is ticking... Each day lost is a day less to avoid to fall off the cliff...

I have the impression that UK politics elit seem to believe their own propaganda.

We go to Brussels, Mr Junker will be drunk and he will sign whatever we show him!

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by olle
Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Preview 2017 Paris Airshow, Announcements, Expectations, Almost Baseless Rumours
Replies: 143
Views: 28194

Re: Preview 2017 Paris Airshow, Announcements, Expectations, Almost Baseless Rumours

EK for 20 additional A380's maybe.. http://redwoodva.net/lib/skins/en/images/a388_livery_uae.png http://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/emirates-said-in-talks-over-deal-for-20-airbus-a380-superjumbos-1.2040102 20 A380s + a few more (IAG etc) means that Airbus getting closer to the magic year 2025 wh...

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by olle
Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Can the A350-1000 live up to Airbus’s expectations?
Replies: 158
Views: 34606

Re: Can the A350-1000 live up to Airbus’s expectations?

I consider a major factor here is financing as well...

A330s, B787 and A350s and currently B77Ws seems to be safe card both to own and lease.

B748, A380 and perhaps B779 will be more problematic.

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by olle
Sat Jun 03, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa might change Long-Haul order
Replies: 176
Views: 48013

Re: Lufthansa might change Long-Haul order

LH ordered a total of 34 779s....14 of them to be "reconfimed", so it's possible they just take the 20 over a longer timeframe and forget the other 14. We will have a better idea what they will ultimately decide come September. Definitely not a situation ala EK whereby they would cancel o...

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by olle
Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa might change Long-Haul order
Replies: 176
Views: 48013

Re: Lufthansa might change Long-Haul order

Does this not opens up for 787 in LH group?

LH seems to need replacements for 767 more then they need the 779.

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by olle
Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa might change Long-Haul order
Replies: 176
Views: 48013

Re: Lufthansa might change Long-Haul order

What is missing here is what Airbus and RR are telling LH about A359, A3510 model 2020-2025. B779 always seems to be compared to A359 model 2016 and I suppose that Airbus and RR will not sit and do nothing. In the same way A380 need a refresh in order to compete with the new generations twins I have...

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by olle
Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Can the A350-1000 live up to Airbus’s expectations?
Replies: 158
Views: 34606

Re: Can the A350-1000 live up to Airbus’s expectations?

If A350 shall replace B772s then the 900 model is the main focus...

The 1000 model will have grown in capacity with PIPs etc until the B77W comes to replacement together with B779s.

I strongly believe that the A358 will come mid 2020s... A339 will not be able to compete against 787 forever.

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by olle
Sun May 28, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

The G7 meeting seems to have made France and Germany pissed off.

Merkel today talkes about that Trump and Brexit makes US and UK less trsutworthy as allies and alternatives is needed.

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by olle
Sun May 28, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Evidence Shows Gun Control Works
Replies: 102
Views: 4989

Re: Evidence Shows Gun Control Works

Is not one big difference the reason to have a gun in let say UK compared to US? In US it is self protection and the gun is often loaded and available. In other countries where hunting or civil guard services is main activity the weapons is often stored in pieces, in special lockers etc. The US eped...

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by olle
Sun May 28, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: NATO and Trump
Replies: 328
Views: 7182

Re: NATO and Trump

It seems like the French and Germans are sick and tired of Uk and US. merkel talks in public today and asks if EU can trust UK and US and that EU need to take responsibility for its own future. UK had on behalf of US one big task while being inside EU. Kill all talk about common defense, security an...

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by olle
Sun May 28, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Merkel: Europe 'can no longer rely on allies' after Trump and Brexit
Replies: 143
Views: 3918

Re: Merkel: Europe 'can no longer rely on allies' after Trump and Brexit

It seems like Nato will Change in the future with members like US, UK, EU, NO etc if we read the signals correct.

EU after brexit will define its foreign policy and military it seem like.

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by olle
Sun May 14, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-block ... ding-spat/

EU try to start before 2019 but UK stops any suggestion of it.
-->

http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-block ... ding-spat/

EU try to start before 2019 but UK stops any suggestion of it.

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by olle
Sun May 14, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

EU Defense is on its way. But UK use its veto until 2019.

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by olle
Wed May 10, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub
Replies: 78
Views: 20105

Re: Emirates CEO: 115 A380s is ‘absolute’ limit for Dubai hub

With the A380+ EK should be able to expand without increasing the total number of aircrafts.. Something going on here.

Considering 12 year leases how many EK A380s will be retired until 2025?

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by olle
Tue May 09, 2017 7:32 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

Such as common border control, security and defence.

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by olle
Sat May 06, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

The major contribution of money has been going to a modern version of the marshal support. Scandinavia and Germany close to Soviet union and kommunist east europe has been quit happy to ensure the freedom of Poland, Baltic states etc. UK was in 1989 even not convinced to open the wall between east a...

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by olle
Sat May 06, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

Swedens total spending of EU is around 25% of UK spending. Our poulation is 10 million UK 60 million. I think that UK story about how big the payments is is not wellcome in Germany, Netherlands, Scandinavia. Why should we payfor UK?

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by olle
Sat May 06, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... pean-union
-->

Considering that each Swede pays €304, a german € 240 per person and year and a UK pays only € 180 should Sweden have better terms then UK if we leaves?


https://www.theguardian.com/news/databl ... pean-union

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by olle
Sat May 06, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

The Brexit negotiation from an EU point of view will be to minimize the negative impact of Brexit. The biggest negative impact of Brexit is not Brexit itself but send out a lethal torpedo for the EU project. Even Hungary and poland agree to that. I suppose that even the UK will agree that a Europe w...

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by olle
Fri May 05, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

So what can we expect from a trade deal? Normally a trade deal handles cars and other products but no services. Also by EU law the € clearing need to stay in a EU country. How will that affect London as an economic hub? What will be the losses in GDP and tax revenue for UK government by loosing this...

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by olle
Fri May 05, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

considering the conversation and it seems like it reflects the EU27 vs UK pretty well, what is the chance of an divorce agreement in 3-4 month in order to give some time for a free tade agreement?

I start to consider that 50-50 chance is optimistic.

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by olle
Fri May 05, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

The exit bill is under construction. Right now probably an request has been sent to identify costs tgat might apply for the exit bill. The formula is still to be negotiated. UK will of course say 0 and EU will reoly with anything they can consider applies. Some of the number is only obligations like...

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by olle
Fri May 05, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

The exit bill is under construction. Right now probably an request has been sent to identify costs tgat might apply for the exit bill. The formula is still to be negotiated. UK will of course say 0 and EU will reoly with anything they can consider applies. Some of the number is only obligations like...

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by olle
Fri May 05, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Breaking : Terror attack on shopping Centre in Munich , Germany
Replies: 77
Views: 2975

Re: Breaking : Terror attack on shopping Centre in Munich , Germany

Even with millions of refugees ISIS and other terror groups have in many ways lost. They are very much lost their competence to plan attacks and falls back on making crazy guys mostly without backup making attacks like the ones happening the last two years. The Attack in Paris and Brussels wil proba...

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by olle
Fri May 05, 2017 6:09 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

Merkel will probably be remembered by history as the most competent and inspiring politician of our time. The refugee crisis was already a fact when she accepted it and made the german people accepting it. Even Greece might come out as success. Rememebr that is was not germany who created the Greece...

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by olle
Fri May 05, 2017 6:04 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

I still beleive that junkers comments about "two galaxy" is very true. UK has been in a bad marrige with the EU for long time, avoiding or veto any reform that EU might need. UK seems even to have made Poland and Hungary start to consider that sitting waiting for EU to give them funding mi...

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by olle
Fri May 05, 2017 6:04 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 640
Views: 10337

Re: Brexit - EU position

I still beleive that junkers comments about "two galaxy" is very true. UK has been in a bad marrige with the EU for long time, avoiding or veto any reform that EU might need. UK seems even to have made Poland and Hungary start to consider that sitting waiting for EU to give them funding mi...

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