Search found 528 matches

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will UA order more 77W’s ?
Replies: 83
Views: 6528

Re: Will UA order more 77W’s ?

I don't believe UA will ever take the A350. The 787-10 can comfortably do SFO-TYO or ICN. A mix of 777 and 77X along with the 789 can do the rest. I just don't see any love for the A350 at UA.

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by ElroyJetson
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?
Replies: 134
Views: 32765

Re: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?

There's no reason to have any (significant) difference between 787-9 and 787-10 for assumed TOW. So I guess same trip cost, around -10% CASM (depending on config) for 787s at same TOW is a reasonable guess. One would need to reduce payload or increase weight accordingly to DOW difference, though. O...

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by ElroyJetson
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?
Replies: 134
Views: 32765

Re: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?

I have not seen comparison data between the 787-10 and the A339. There's no reason to have any (significant) difference between 787-9 and 787-10 for assumed TOW. So I guess same trip cost, around -10% CASM (depending on config) for 787s at same TOW is a reasonable guess. One would need to reduce pa...

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by ElroyJetson
Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?
Replies: 134
Views: 32765

Re: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?

The 787-10 has a massive cargo hold so when folks say things like....."well yeah....but it can't fly LAX-TLV with a full load," I just laugh. As one of the other posters stated, if every plane flew with an absolutely full cargo hold the 77L would have sold a 1,000 copies. In reality it so...

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by ElroyJetson
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?
Replies: 74
Views: 8417

Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

The primary competition for the A330 Neo seems to be the 788 and the 789. The 788 is almost identically sized to the 338, and they have similar range. However, the OEW of the 788 is 27,000 lbs lighter than the 338 which probably explains why the 338 has sold so poorly. I do not see any business cas...

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by ElroyJetson
Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?
Replies: 74
Views: 8417

Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

I think around 500 frames. Maybe 600 if a freighter variant takes off. If media reports are correct and Boeing can now manufacture a 789 for 90-95 million per plane that puts enormous pressure on Airbus. Basically the proposed capital cost advantage of the A330 Neo disappears. Airbus can certainly r...

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by ElroyJetson
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?
Replies: 74
Views: 8417

How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Airbus currently has a 238 A330 Neo aircraft on order, all but eight of which are for the A330-900 variant. Airbus estimated in their original business case that they could sell 1,000. Flight Global estimated only around 600. The primary competition for the A330 Neo seems to be the 788 and the 789. ...

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by ElroyJetson
Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog
Replies: 138
Views: 24927

Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Every time I hear Amedeo and the 20 A380 order that has been on the books for years I laugh.
:
Amedeo......really? :spin: :rotfl:

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by ElroyJetson
Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 family future prospects
Replies: 106
Views: 14871

Re: 787 family future prospects

LH i think is highly likely as a A330 replacement. DL i think is unlikely. KE would be very smart to buy the 787 with their route network.

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by ElroyJetson
Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ORF Route Development
Replies: 42
Views: 5030

Re: ORF Route Development

Unfortunately, this is kind of a self-reinforcing cycle. It was widely reported that one of the significant factors that influenced Norfolk-Southern’s recent decision to move its headquarters away from its namesake city are the limited air travel options from ORF. Agreed. The are only two Fortune 5...

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by ElroyJetson
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ORF Route Development
Replies: 42
Views: 5030

Re: ORF Route Development

ORF has been pretty sleepy for a while. It is a military town without much of a business base. The entire tidewater area is growing very slowly in term of population (the metro grew 2.9% from 2000-2017 while Richmond grew 7.1% as an example). ... Unfortunately, this is kind of a self-reinforcing cy...

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by ElroyJetson
Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ORF Route Development
Replies: 42
Views: 5030

Re: ORF Route Development

ORF has been pretty sleepy for a while. It is a military town without much of a business base. The entire tidewater area is growing very slowly in term of population (the metro grew 2.9% from 2000-2017 while Richmond grew 7.1% as an example). There are opportunities at ORF, but I think you might be ...

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by ElroyJetson
Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest founder Herb Kelleher dies aged 87
Replies: 105
Views: 13152

Re: Southwest founder Herb Kelleher dies aged 87

One of the great innovators in commercial aviation. RIP.

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by ElroyJetson
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 50
Views: 4622

Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2019

I agree with most of the comments. IAD definitely adds another Star Alliance member. IAD-WAW sounds like a good bet. RIC-DTW with mainline 717 or A319 would work. NW flew 4 DC-9's a day for years on the route. Spirit and Allegiant continue to expand RIC with several western destinations. Allegiant a...

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by ElroyJetson
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How is the A350 performing for DL
Replies: 261
Views: 52897

Re: How is the A350 performing for DL

I read all the comments from DL A350 pilots. I would say it is roughly 2 to 1 against. There are many complaints about the tiny crew rest area, small size of the forward galley, humidity issues, complicated flight systems and difficulty in learning how to operate the aircraft. One pilot claimed an 8...

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How is the A350 performing for DL
Replies: 261
Views: 52897

Re: How is the A350 performing for DL

Sounds like DL got the lower MTOW A359 for the fuel savings. If they need a handful of birds to carry more payload than why not make some of the later deliveries the 280t variant.

This doesn't seem like a big deal to me. DL did in fact get what they paid for.

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by ElroyJetson
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Any US Airline Fly from the US to CGK?
Replies: 7
Views: 1094

Will Any US Airline Fly from the US to CGK?

CGK is one of the busiest airports in the world in an emerging Asia nation of Indonesia with a rapidly growing economy and population, and yet it has no commercial air service to the US. CGK currently serves 64 mil pax a year with an expansion plan to accommodate 100 pax by 2025. Garuda is a mess of...

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by ElroyJetson
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018
Replies: 352
Views: 30486

Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

For some reason IAD has never really done well as a LCC airport. Many have tried, few have succeeded..

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Likelihood of a A350-700 and A350-800?
Replies: 29
Views: 3853

Re: Likelihood of a A350-700 and A350-800?

The interesting think is IMO, the A330NEO isn't becoming a lighter more optimized aircraft, it's price & capabilities are growing. Making it less attractive for short / medium range operations.. I agree with you. The A330neo is too capable to fit a true next generation light-weight mid-range ro...

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Dec 17, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A220 Longer term Impact on Airbus Strategy, the Canadian Connection
Replies: 66
Views: 9115

Re: A220 Longer term Impact on Airbus Strategy, the Canadian Connection

The former C series is a great plane that fills a key slot in the commercial aviation industry. I hope Airbus maximizes its full potential.

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Dec 17, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Likelihood of a A350-700 and A350-800?
Replies: 29
Views: 3853

Re: Likelihood of a A350-700 and A350-800?

Interesting question, but the answer is no. The A350 family was optimized to replace the 77E and 77W. It does so very well. To shrink the A350 and attempt to turn it into a mid-range light weight aircraft is too expensive and impractical. Start with a clean sheet.

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by ElroyJetson
Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Airline Announcement at IND 12/11
Replies: 55
Views: 9158

Re: New Airline Announcement at IND 12/11

I think Spirit is making some great business moves. Expanding service to IND is one of them.

Spirit kind of reminds me of WN back in the day before they lost their balls and became really boring. :lol:

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Releases 777X BBJ; 11,000+ nm Range
Replies: 68
Views: 13731

Re: Boeing Releases 777X BBJ; 11,000+ nm Range

I want mine in sky blue with seats made from baby seal leather. Oh....and one for the wife as well.

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Did the 737 MAX go one step too far?
Replies: 232
Views: 31783

Re: Did the 737 MAX go one step too far?

A trolling thread imho based on one negative incident. The 737 Max is an excellent aircraft as is the A320 Neo.

But hey, if people want to bash I guess why not...right?

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by ElroyJetson
Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: High Flight Levels
Replies: 31
Views: 2798

Re: High Flight Levels

Where I fly, any flight above FL410 requires that one pilot must wear an oxygen mask. That alone keeps us no higher than 410. I only went up to 430 once (on oxygen) took pictures of the PFD then back down. ;) I remember being on a TWA 747 flight from JFK to LHR when I was a kid and the pilot saying...

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus a330neo possible versions with GEnx and Trent 1000
Replies: 21
Views: 3760

Re: Airbus a330neo possible versions with GEnx and Trent 1000

The A330 Neo electrical architecture is essentially unchanged from the early 1990's with the exception of IFE upgrades. I do not see Airbus going to the expense of 787 electrical subsystem for an admittedly low cost derivative in the A330 Neo. The OP presents an interesting idea but I do not see it ...

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Nov 26, 2018 4:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018
Replies: 352
Views: 30486

Re: DC/VA/MD Aviation Thread - 2018

More News form RIC. G4 will be starting twice weekly nonstop flights from RIC to SRQ beginning April 4 2019. This is now the fourth destination from RIC on G4 including Nashville, Orlando, and St Petersburg. Through the end of September Richmond traffic is up 10.4% year over year. https://flyrichmon...

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by ElroyJetson
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta orders 10 A330-900 neo's, defers 10 A350-900's
Replies: 384
Views: 61757

Re: Delta orders 10 A330-900 neo's, defers 10 A350-900's

When you run a business you do not buy "the best," you buy the right tools for each job. Buying the 787 to fly it DTW-AMS is like buying a Bugatti to go 75 MPH. Not necessary. The A330neo is perfect for that job, and tens of millions of dollars cheaper than 787. Again... because the 787 b...

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by ElroyJetson
Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta orders 10 A330-900 neo's, defers 10 A350-900's
Replies: 384
Views: 61757

Re: Reuters: Airbus likely sold 10 A330neo jets to Delta

The A339 is fine as a TATL bird for DL. However, I think they made a big mistake cancelling the 787 order. The 788 and 789 would have been perfect out of SEA as an example, and could have opened up some new markets for them. MSP could have also benefited. I agree with the poster who stated UA is be...

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by ElroyJetson
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta orders 10 A330-900 neo's, defers 10 A350-900's
Replies: 384
Views: 61757

Re: Reuters: Airbus likely sold 10 A330neo jets to Delta

The A339 is fine as a TATL bird for DL. However, I think they made a big mistake cancelling the 787 order. The 788 and 789 would have been perfect out of SEA as an example, and could have opened up some new markets for them. MSP could have also benefited. I agree with the poster who stated UA is bet...

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by ElroyJetson
Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?
Replies: 134
Views: 32765

Re: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?

8 I’m not clear which “they” you’re referring to. But I’m going to trust that KLM knows what they’re doing rather than make silly comments. From keesje's post and that alone it seems he confirmed all the points you made, and didn't challenge. So I'm confused by your reply. 1. keesje literally said ...

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by ElroyJetson
Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?
Replies: 134
Views: 32765

Re: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?

If you want to fly 40T 6000 nm or more sure.....an A350 or 777X will be great. For the 95% of long haul missions that do not need to fly 40 or more tons that far the 787-10 looks pretty damn good imho. You didn't respond to my comment last time out on a similar subject, so I'll post it again here: ...

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?
Replies: 134
Views: 32765

Re: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?

Was there really ever any doubt that the 787-10 could do West Coast to most of Western Europe? Yes. Within the last week a number of Airbus fans said the 787-10 could not fly a route like FRA-LAX with full pax and bags and zero cargo. The implication was the 787-10 was marginally TATL. It could fly...

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?
Replies: 134
Views: 32765

Re: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?

The 787-10 has a massive cargo hold so when folks say things like....."well yeah....but it can't fly LAX-TLV with a full load," I just laugh. As one of the other posters stated, if every plane flew with an absolutely full cargo hold the 77L would have sold a 1,000 copies. In reality it sol...

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?
Replies: 134
Views: 32765

KLM Starts 787-10 on AMS-SFO Route. But I thought the 787-10 Had No Range?

KLM announced they will starting flying 787-10 on the AMS-SFO route effective 10/28/19. https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/281470/klm-nw19-preliminary-long-haul-changes-as-of-09nov18/ The route is roughly 4800 NM and an 11-12 hour flight westbound. However, I find this confusing becau...

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by ElroyJetson
Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B787-10 future prospects?
Replies: 218
Views: 27007

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

A "real" range for the B78X is 5000nm.....fantastic plane for Europe to west and east america routes like FRA-LAX or LHR-JFK FRA-LAX doesn't seem like a good idea, specailly east bound. http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FRA-LAX&MS=wls&DU=nm And cargo FRA-LAX is really significant appar...

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by ElroyJetson
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B787-10 future prospects?
Replies: 218
Views: 27007

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

It's on the chart but it's seems to be out of the running because it is stuck in the 'too small' category. I guess it's doomed. The 779 didn't even make the chart. I belive that chart was created by Airbus marketing who was trying to tell United that world demand was perfectly centered on what the ...

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by ElroyJetson
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WN at MDW - 2018
Replies: 13
Views: 2488

Re: WN at MDW - 2018

WN will never add MDW-RIC. After literally 16 years of promises that ship has sailed.

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by ElroyJetson
Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 787 vs A350 range
Replies: 177
Views: 17405

Re: 787 vs A350 range

However, A332, A333, A359, 788 and 789 all are airplanes of similar size and will have similar amount of fuel remaining after landing. The A350-900 has a 23% higher MTOW than the 787-8. The A350-900 fuselage has a 22% greater wetted area than the 787-8. That is not similar. Zeke is an Airbus fanboy...

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by ElroyJetson
Sat Nov 03, 2018 1:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JAL pilot 8 times over the limit at LHR
Replies: 101
Views: 18928

Re: JAL pilot 8 times over the limit at LHR

Doc - In your educated opinion, can someone be that intoxicated and yet not exhibit obvious signs? A functioning alcoholic as it were? Can someone be so immune that they could possibly go undetected at that level? I'm afraid if he was showing up for work in that state, it may not have been the firs...

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by ElroyJetson
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target
Replies: 138
Views: 13698

Re: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target

[url][/url] Nevertheless, how things have changed! FWIW, even now I regard the contest between a future NMA and an A321LR as being no sure outcome. However the current load on AB Management and resources makes me guess that right now AB does not have too much resources to employ to fight back agains...

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by ElroyJetson
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target
Replies: 138
Views: 13698

Re: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target

I think the true story here is Airbus is not hitting their delivery targets. I do not see deception on their part. I see a company with significant problems. Those are: 1. New management struggling to find its way. 2. Poorly selling products in the A380 and a misread of the market with the A330 neo...

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by ElroyJetson
Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target
Replies: 138
Views: 13698

Re: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target

4. An underestimation of Boeing and their ability to bring down production costs on the 787 program, and Boeing's ability to accurately predict trends in commercial aviation. You seems to be very clever guy and that's why I want you tell us how much 787-9 production cost is now and how much in the ...

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by ElroyJetson
Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target
Replies: 138
Views: 13698

Re: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target

I think the true story here is Airbus is not hitting their delivery targets. I do not see deception on their part. I see a company with significant problems. Those are: 1. New management struggling to find its way. 2. Poorly selling products in the A380 and a misread of the market with the A330 neo....

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by ElroyJetson
Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:11 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 787 vs A350 range
Replies: 177
Views: 17405

Re: 787 vs A350 range

Zeke's data confirms one fact that has been floating around for a while. That is the 789 is more fuel efficient on a typical payload mission (assume 40t) up to 6000 nm where the advantage swings to the A359. This makes perfect sense to me. What i find surprising is how small the 789 advantage is con...

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Largest unserved markets from SLC?
Replies: 30
Views: 3249

Re: Largest unserved markets from SLC?

Top 5 unserved SLC markets in order of total SLC O&D Miami Lihue Hartford Buffalo Memphis Richmond has a larger population than Hartford or Buffalo. Ditto ORF. UA is now going double daily mainline RIC-DEN. And recently started ORF-DEN. Those two cities seem more logical than Buffalo or Hartford.

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 83
Views: 8450

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

This has been rehashed countless times. I am not an accountant but it seems pretty straightforward to me.

I have no doubt based on the 787 order book the deferred costs will get at or close to zero.

Why are people obsessing about this?

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by ElroyJetson
Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 83
Views: 8450

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

This has been rehashed countless times. I am not an accountant but it seems pretty straightforward to me.

I have no doubt based on the 787 order book the deferred costs will get at or close to zero.

Why are people obsessing about this?

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by ElroyJetson
Sun Oct 28, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What is DL’s long term strategy in BOS?
Replies: 14
Views: 2149

Re: What is DL’s long term strategy in BOS?

The DL strategy is to block B6 from having a TATL foothold out of BOS. So far I'd say their plan has been working well.

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by ElroyJetson
Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries
Replies: 93
Views: 17558

Re: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries

How do you 'know' it's cheaper to buy? And the 339 NEO hasn't even operated yet! Hmmm However RR's share price today certainly reflects their continued failure to deliver on time. There is a cold wind blowing through the whole airline marketplace right now -it always has been cyclical and a downtur...

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