Search found 2456 matches

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham
Replies: 171
Views: 15667

Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Assuming all of this is true, I do feel a bit disappointed about the future of the A330-800, but the 787-9 makes more sense for Hawaiian. As a small-to-medium sized airline, HA will probably find it cheaper to operate the 787-9s, due to greater availability of parts and maintenance for a more "...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham
Replies: 171
Views: 15667

Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Airbus has Boeing exactly where they want it. I know this war is far from over, but with the very expensive 748, the VERY expensive 787, and the luckluster 777X, not to mention the 60-year-old 737WAX, Boeing has pushed itself into a corner. And with the 797 on the horizon, I don't think their situa...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham
Replies: 171
Views: 15667

Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

How does Scott Hamilton ( of Leeham news) know what the sales price would be? Is this an estimate of what Airbus thinks and is feeding him? It is a bit suspicious where he is getting these price figures since he just happens to be in Toulouse reporting on the A350-1000 first delivery right now. Bef...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham
Replies: 171
Views: 15667

Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

787-8 makes more sense for HA if they are going the 787 route. The 787-8 is an all but dead product. The logic seems to be the lack of good reason why would anyone want a plane that costs the same to operate as its larger counterpart, but holds less people/cargo, has no range advantage, and probabl...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham
Replies: 171
Views: 15667

Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Leeham is speculating a sales price potentially below $100 million for the 787-9. That's dirt cheap, and not much above production cost. They regularly sell for $125 million. How does Scott Hamilton ( of Leeham news) know what the sales price would be? Is this an estimate of what Airbus thinks and ...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 737MAX-9 planned service entry - June 7th
Replies: 50
Views: 5801

Re: United 737MAX-9 planned service entry - June 7th

Better range and fuel economy but still will have pretty poor runway performance, high landing speeds, and altitude capability. Hate to see the MAX-10 performance. Are you flying the airplane yourself? If not, why do you care? Most pilots are more concerned about the ice in the cockpit than this. H...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United's 234 seat 753s to debut June 7th
Replies: 14
Views: 4434

Re: United's 234 seat 753s to debut June 7th

What a sardine can. I've flown in CO/UA 753s many times, starting back when CO had just three rows of first (total seats was 222, as I recall), then when they went to a more elite-pleasing 6 rows of F (reduced cap to 216, I think). But 234 is lunacy. Seat pitch seems, at 31, to be the new norm. But...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 737MAX-9 planned service entry - June 7th
Replies: 50
Views: 5801

Re: United 737MAX-9 planned service entry - June 7th

Has ETOPS been an issue at all for the max? IAH-ANC makes sense to take advantage of the airplanes range

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could Boeing work with Embraer on 737 replacement alongside the 797
Replies: 51
Views: 5282

Re: Could Boeing work with Embraer on 737 replacement alongside the 797

What would Embraer bring Boeing in this partnership? With its experience developing the 787, Boeing would want to take the lead in engineering. I could see a role, but I suspect Embarer would very much be the junior partner in any joint venture for a new aircraft to replace as successful a product ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could Boeing work with Embraer on 737 replacement alongside the 797
Replies: 51
Views: 5282

Re: Could Boeing work with Embraer on 737 replacement alongside the 797

I gues that might be a longer term strategy. I think there is a medium term requirement for a super efficient 130-160 seat aircraft up to 1500NM that can also do 199 seats in an ultimate stretched payload range restricted version. . That sounds pretty darn close to the 737-8, which has a backlog of...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

So, why are people still talking about order bubbles? Some of us remember 2003 and/or 2009. Many in the industry were laid off due to cycles and remember them. Going down in rate and the consequences of it can be very painful. I am not saying 70 per month is sustainable, and I agree bubble may be t...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could Boeing work with Embraer on 737 replacement alongside the 797
Replies: 51
Views: 5282

Re: Could Boeing work with Embraer on 737 replacement alongside the 797

I already know the answer that will be given, but the 737 has over 4000 orders and 43% market share in the order backlog compared to the A320neo family. With possibly the NMA/797 addressing the Strength Airbus has with the A321LR at the top end of the 737 lineup, why should Boeing be in a rush to si...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta wants to be the launch customer for 797
Replies: 171
Views: 23821

Re: Delta wants to be the launch customer for 797

s] The 797 is so far off into the future that everyone will forget they even said this. PR posturing. PR posturing? Possibly. Is the 797 launch actually that far off into the future? With airlines like United, Delta, and Qantas all talking about it publicly, it seems like a possible program launch i...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

] Couldn’t agree more, I think it also makes more sense to have the FAL production expansion outside of Europe. The new FALs I think are easier to expand. Why is that? The new production lines rely on shipping mostly already fabricated components and then assembling them. Wing production, engines, f...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

The situation is really very simple, you have customers that order merchandise and you run a production to fulfill those orders. It makes more sense for Airbus to go to 70 frames a month on the A320 family, than it is for Boeing to go to 14 a month on the 787 family. From a pure numbers point I won...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Ok then, so given all that you said, do you think 70 airplanes a month is a reasonable production rate? I intentionally tried to avoid an A vs B discussion, but they have issues too with their production rate and competition if there is a downturn. I get a feeling that some people think that Airbus...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Thing is they were ordered with low oil prices though. So they were more economical than old planes with cheap fuel, despite ownership or capital cost. If oil prices rise, the demand for MAX and neo will rise accordingly, just to save the cash flow (sacrificing CAPEX). The freight markets recover a...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Maybe I am dense, but when these orders (WB or NB, Airbus or Boeing), don't they have a delivery period listed? Then it should be simple enough (even stupid me can put together an Excel spreadsheet) to know what the rate should be. I have to deliver so many in each year contractually, right? Simple...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Olddog wrote:
If you are nervous with that rate, try to imagine that rate + 10 - 15 CS 100/Cs 300 each month :)


I wonder about that too

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines

azjubilee wrote:
FWIW... HA's grounded 321neo (N204HA) has two new engines and will re-enter service today. A 767 or 330 was filling in on that aircraft's line since the AD was announced. The other 321neo (N202HA) was not affected by the AD.


Where did the engines come from?

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

I get nervous with 70 per month rates. If oil prices double, that will raise fares and severely slow growth in demand that airlines are relying on when they placed these big orders for expansions. If oil prices jumped and India went into recession causing GoAir and IndiGo to defer deliveries, there ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

It isn’t most orders will be cancelled, deferred, etc. The reality is that Airbus has had a 17% cancellation rate over the past three years when looking at net in year of cancellation. (I averaged three years since last year’s 23% cancellation rate was a bit of an anomaly and some may want to look ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans
Replies: 1136
Views: 193466

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Free email from AvWeek provided "Next-Gen Core Demo Boost For Rolls-Royce" by Guy Norris which says: Stein notes that aircraft manufacturers continue to be briefed about the Advance and its UltraFan follow-on engine. “ Each of them may or may not modify their airframe plans as a result of...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

It isn’t most orders will be cancelled, deferred, etc. The reality is that Airbus has had a 17% cancellation rate over the past three years when looking at net in year of cancellation. (I averaged three years since last year’s 23% cancellation rate was a bit of an anomaly and some may want to look ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

What i see as a problem is how big some of the orders are from relatively small airlines. IndiGo, Air Asia, Lion Air, and Indigo Partners ordered for massive expansion that exceeds market growth rates. That means either those orders wont be fully taken up, may get deferred, or some other airline wi...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines

This article is speculating that 98 engines may be affected On Thursday, in response to a query by TOI, PW said a total of 98 engines worldwide could be affected but currently what is confirmed is that 43 are affected by the regulator’s directive. Earlier in the week, on Monday, PW said in a stateme...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

Olddog wrote:
Maybe that when your cancellation numbers are mostly conversion orders registered that way ?


Good point. Cancellations can also be conversions. It is why we have to be careful just looking at gross orders numbers.

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian To Tokyo
Replies: 34
Views: 6866

Re: Norwegian To Tokyo

Flew Oslo to Bangkok on Norwegian and it was ridiculous , went south around Russia ... Yields to Tokyo for an lcc will be trash , you can do it via ME3, TK , Singapore , Cathay - all quality carriers for peanuts - it’s on the wrong side of Asia strategically just like BA can’t make China work For B...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

For the record Airbus has over 1,700 frames (28%) of total back log from eight airlines that currently only fly 728 planes. There are cancellations in this bunch for sure. That Indigo Partners order really has me scratching my head. To me it feels really speculative that all four of those airlines ...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month
Replies: 113
Views: 10503

Re: Airbus might push A320 family production rate to 70 aircraft per month

While I believe in making hay while the sun is shining, one can imagine the risk if the economy goes south for more than a short period of time. Indeed. It's one of the main concerns of the lessors: AerCap: planned narrowbody production rates are unrealistic What i see as a problem is how big some ...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans
Replies: 1136
Views: 193466

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

If 2-3-2 is the cross section selected, good use should be made of the cargo deck because it is shorter than a typical 3-3 AKH cargo deck. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xLTg0IhbaHM/WgLinjG-zQI/AAAAAAAADPE/i7VKHyBMtu0Ix_OkpQxEw3ZozLL5rJDAgCLcBGAs/s1600/Extendable%252520AKH%252520LD3-45%252520Co...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines

How much in engine concession payments does Airbus have to make vs. P&W? The portion of the Airbus investor presentation that says they paid out €7 billion in engine concessions in 2017 on commercial aircraft surprised me a bit. I was under the impression that concessions and compensation payme...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines

A quick Question ... the affected part is easy to service or it involves tearing the whole engine apart? because these snags tend to get out of hand rather fast.... April is a lot of time and a lot of engineless aircraft sitting as real nice paperweights... And all we know about the April date is o...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans
Replies: 1136
Views: 193466

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

If 2-3-2 is the cross section selected, good use should be made of the cargo deck because it is shorter than a typical 3-3 AKH cargo deck. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xLTg0IhbaHM/WgLinjG-zQI/AAAAAAAADPE/i7VKHyBMtu0Ix_OkpQxEw3ZozLL5rJDAgCLcBGAs/s1600/Extendable%252520AKH%252520LD3-45%252520Co...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines

Bad news, the fix may take 6 months or more before production can resume - Hong Kong Express Airways Ltd expects at least a six-month delay in deliveries of new Airbus SE AIR.SE A320neo jets due to issues with engines made by Pratt & Whitney, according to an internal memo issued by the airline....

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus increases profit by 189% in 2017
Replies: 31
Views: 2926

Re: Airbus increases profit by 189% in 2017

It is good to see positive numbers. Things are improving! Flying Cash Machine Boeing is generating more and more free cash each year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-15/airbus-cash-position Boeing's stock has doubled and is dragging Airbus up with it. Ramp up of 737 and 787 is going t...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines

Bad news, the fix may take 6 months or more before production can resume - Hong Kong Express Airways Ltd expects at least a six-month delay in deliveries of new Airbus SE AIR.SE A320neo jets due to issues with engines made by Pratt & Whitney, according to an internal memo issued by the airline. ...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321 NEO LR LBG - JFK Flight Tracker
Replies: 58
Views: 10451

Re: A321 NEO LR CDG - JFK Flight Tracker

Just got back to live tracking and doing about the same speed as all other aircraft on a similar fly path.. ;) Indeed, and EI137 did not overtake it. I did not know FR24 was extrapolating (yes, I feel foolish), thanks for the brilliant demonstration. ;) A320s along with 737s, 757s and 767s are pret...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321 NEO LR LBG - JFK Flight Tracker
Replies: 58
Views: 10451

Re: A321 NEO LR CDG - JFK Flight Tracker

I guess we know why they used CFM engines instead if PW engines for the first A321LR since PW equipped A321neos have suspeded all test flights.

I wonder who will come out to see the plane land

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: EASA drops ETOPS certification for some PW A320/1 engines

A year ago when all the IFSD issues started, I was wondering how the A320neo PW planes were able to meet ETOPS reliability targets http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1353643 It took a while for them to take action. The IFSDs described in AvHerald have been going over a year, but the risk...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines

I read this article that talks about more compensation is going to IndiGo. It also reaffirms the 10 to 1 sales numbers from early 2017 for CFM vs PW on the A320neo. PW has won some orders in late 2017, but halting deliveries, grounding airplanes and suspending ETOPS may hurt sales. If the latest pro...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: IndiGo mulls up to 25 A321LR aircaft
Replies: 36
Views: 5238

Re: IndiGo mulls up to 25 A321LR aircaft

A logical choice as they expand. A few of their A320neo family orders being the LRs makes sense.

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration
Replies: 48
Views: 9675

Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

I'd love to see Boeing do a breakdown by model 7 8 9 10, the whole mystery surrounding the model breakdown gets annoying especially in trying to figure out how the 9 and 10 are effecting each other. Anyone keeping track at home? (outside of wikipedia or deliveries etc). Wonder if Boeing will finall...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines
Replies: 206
Views: 38723

Re: Airbus stops accepting PW1100G engines

Is it legitimate to ask of double digit engine improvements may be inappropriate, and decreasing safety? Efficiency, Reliability and Safety may be a classic tradeoff sort of problem. The industry may be asking too much from engines and their manufacturers. Reliability falls and maintenance overhaul...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration
Replies: 48
Views: 9675

Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Does anyone think he really believes that 10% of the Max sales will be for the 7? It seems quite unlikely to me that he even believes what he is saying. 10% sounds like a lot but really isn’t. It currently has just over 10% right now, and there will likely be occasional BBJs and small orders from a...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration
Replies: 48
Views: 9675

Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Interesting ! Looking from a number of customers perspective, Lion, UA and GECAS converting -9's to -10's is less then 20% of the customers! :checkmark: 416 is great, specially when the -9 order book survived :checkmark: I'd love to see Boeing do a breakdown by model 7 8 9 10, the whole mystery sur...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration
Replies: 48
Views: 9675

737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Boeing announced that the 737-10 reached a design milestone at Singapore Airshow The upcoming Boeing 737 Max 10 has reached firm design configuration, the company announced at the Singapore Airshow Wednesday. The milestone ushers in the start of the program’s detailed design phase, as the company lo...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:22 am
Forum: Site Related
Topic: Moderators moving Civ Av topics to Tech Ops
Replies: 1
Views: 212

Moderators moving Civ Av topics to Tech Ops

Recently there have been some rather news worthy events that have been moved to tech ops. I am a little surprised that Southwest suspending operations at MDW and Airbus suspending deliveries of PW A320neos is tech ops. Civil Aviation is discussions about factual events happening in the airline and g...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:12 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 777X. Will it fall if the wing folds?
Replies: 87
Views: 7108

Re: 777X. Will it fall if the wing folds?

Risk management is not about totally avoiding an accident, because this is definitely not possible but to reduce the chance of an accident to an acceptable level. In theory yes. In reality, risk management is the probability of an accident times out-of-court settlements. If that figure is below the...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Southwest has suspended ops at MDW -2/11
Replies: 42
Views: 4906

Re: Southwest has suspended ops at MDW -2/11

Seems strange that the topic of Southwest suspending operations in MDW is in tech ops.

I am surprised that they ran out, but if they are trying to limit inventory and the consecutive days of snow could have increased demand while limiting opportunities to replace inventory

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