Search found 1406 matches

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 93
Views: 13861

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Would it not be smarter for LH to skip the 777x? The deposits can be changed to 787 used into the LH group. Also LH has complained about the 777x to much is defined by ME3. Perhaps the A350 9 and 10 improvements and better then expected performance is giving results? Eventually I see the 777-9 fitt...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

And you know THAT HOW?? Do you have operational data to support that? I'd doubt that you can support that assumption.. The facts are out there. The A319 is superior to the 737-700, the 737-800/A320 are a tossup and the A321 is vastly superior to the 737-900 in terms of passengers, range, performanc...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

The facts are out there. The A319 is superior to the 737-700, the 737-800/A320 are a tossup and the A321 is vastly superior to the 737-900 in terms of passengers, range, performance, and number sold. Facts don't lie. Umm, the A319 is superior to the 737-700 is a fact? If you think things are so bla...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 93
Views: 13861

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Next up from leeham should be a story about how the 737-10 is now in trouble just like the max9 after getting no further orders after Paris. They've hit 787, 77x, and MoM in the last week or so, maybe have forgotten to hammer the 737 for some reason this month. Hey, if you don't like it don't read ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Where does the profits come from for the 30 extra billions Boeing did spend on the dividends, bonuses and share buy backs? . The 737 and 777 programs have earned over $30 Billion over the past 12 years. Boeing also runs a defense business with over $30 Billion in revenue as well per year so that is...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Some simple facts that seemed to get drowned in the displeasure of Boeing fan boys at there company being "attacked". Facts unfavourable to Boeing seem to constitute an attack. Your statement on equity is true. Boeing has been reducing shareholder equity and total equity. Meanwhile stock ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

By repeatedly increasing the block size rather than creating a new block once this block is finished you are just admitting up front there is a loss. Yes, the whole point is to cover what everyone knows is a loss, the fact that the first planes are deeply loss-making. My later post gives Boeing's s...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Some simple facts that seemed to get drowned in the displeasure of Boeing fan boys at there company being "attacked". Facts unfavourable to Boeing seem to constitute an attack. Your statement on equity is true. Boeing has been reducing shareholder equity and total equity. Meanwhile stock ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

Bummer. I was really hoping Alaska would diversify the fleet a bit. I personally prefer the Airbus 319/20/21 over the 737. Who knows, maybe Alaska will change it's mind a year or two down the line. Fingers crossed! Even if they just kept the A321neo, I'd be happy. Something different to play around...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I think there's different definitions of loss depending on whether you talking about it from a cash or accrual (accounting) basis. Nope. I'm pretty sure that a loss is a loss whether you are talking cash or accounting. However, on an accrual basis, a sale can't be below the per-airplane costs deter...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 93
Views: 13861

Re: LH apparently cancel 14 of 34 779s

Leeham is never pro-Boeing. Every Boeing aircraft will do much worse than it does... Not to hijack the thread, but I've noticed this, too, and always wondered why. Is it because Leeham's from Seattle and thinks Boeing's presence there is somehow detrimental and/or has been bad for the economy and l...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 93
Views: 13861

Re: LH apparently cancel 14 of 34 779s

The Leeham article has been rewritten removing the claim that LH cancelled 14 frames. Does this now qualify as "fake news"? I suspect that Stitch has it right and that LH has let their 14 purchase rights/options/or whatever they were expire. Scott's twitter feed ( https://twitter.com/Leeh...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 93
Views: 13861

Re: LH apparently cancel 14 of 34 779s

Boeing should not have moved ahead with the 777X, IMHO... That is a rather bold opinion, but I have seen a number of people post that opinion on the website when they focus on the number of airlines who have ordered the plane. The way I look at it is that large widebody orders have been soft for a ...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL will fund LGA terminal project without Goldman
Replies: 54
Views: 6826

Re: DL will fund LGA terminal project without Goldman

Or, we can continue to under-invest in LGA (and the biggest U.S. airports in general) and everybody can keep declaring what a crap-hole is LaGuardia. Unless they plan to re-align the runways or build new runways, it'll still be a crap-hole. The approved architectural plans do move the terminal area...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

It is worth noting that Boeing is going through a huge cost reduction program across the company http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/17/news/companies/boeing-signals-may-layoffs/index.html Boeing (BA) has been cutting staff to reduce costs since early 2016, primarily through buyouts and the attrition of ex...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

What has been described is a clear business case for A333Neo. Can be produced and sold for USD 100 million. If A333NEO is 30-40% less expensive compared to B789 and with efficiency within 1-2% from B789 for 80-90% of its missions, it will be sold in big quantities as long as Boeing need to handle i...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Is Leeham saying anything new compared to 3-6 months ago when he argued (and many of us agreed) the program is not on a pace to pay down the deferred costs in the existing block?. I don't think there is any new information because Boeing has not yet released 2nd quarter financial numbers yet. 787 p...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Leeham news is known for its negative commentary regarding Boeing. In addition to this article the one prior is "Is Norwegian in Trouble, part 2?" (Remember they are an all Boeing operator) and prior to that is "business case for NMA remains uncertain". After a good showing at t...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Is Leeham saying anything new compared to 3-6 months ago when he argued (and many of us agreed) the program is not on a pace to pay down the deferred costs in the existing block?. I don't think there is any new information because Boeing has not yet released 2nd quarter financial numbers yet. 787 p...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Yes, Boeing is reducing deferred costs with each 787 delivery. Is it fast enough? The answer to that is as plain as the nose on your face and everyone knows it. 100% spot on. Rather than attempt to extend the accounting block, I expect Boeing will pick a year and take much of it as a large write-of...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

This confuses me. Unless we aren't speaking about the same thing. The 787 accountinh block is 1300 airplanes. Total orders for the 787 are about 1275. It is entirely feasible that the total number of orders for the 787 will exceed the accounting block either this year or next. Why do you think the ...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Therefore, unless the production cost unexpectedly comes down faster than expected the accounting block will not reduce in number. I don't think anyone expects the accounting block number to reduce. The question is whether Boeing can show a profit with the current accounting block. If not, they hav...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 197
Views: 14943

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I think there are a number of people that have been wondering if a write down or expansion of the accounting block is coming on the 787. We've seen some write downs with moving production costs on early airplanes to R&D. 787 has continued to sell and it is likely possible that the accounting blo...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A350 Dead In North America?
Replies: 69
Views: 19917

Re: A350 Dead In North America?

I think this might be selective reading though. If you are an A fan, you will obviously remember all the A bashing threads. If you are a B fan, you will obviously remember all the B bashing threads. As a B fan more than A, trust me, the B bashing is very active as well. :-) I'm neither (personally ...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indy Area Getting a New Airport?
Replies: 25
Views: 2587

Re: Indy Area Getting a New Airport?

I thought there was a rock quarry near there.

An airport is kind of pointless since there already is the Indianapolis regional airport on that side of town. Anderson also has an airport not far away.

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

Most people believe the A320 NEO is the best plane in its class. Seems silly for AS to make this comment regarding Boeing planes. The 737 MAX has 43% of the NEO/MAX total backlog so despite a.net fanboy consensus saying that the A320neo Is the best plane in its class, airlines have ordered over 380...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

I guess AS is looking to fill their business class seats with Seattle based Boeing executives. The majority of Boeing executives are at their Chicago headquarters. That said, I'm sure AS (and another big Boeing customer, UA) would be happy to fly them to SEA. That is not true. Boeing Commercial Air...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

Most people believe the A320 NEO is the best plane in its class. Seems silly for AS to make this comment regarding Boeing planes. The 737 MAX has 43% of the NEO/MAX total backlog so despite a.net fanboy consensus saying that the A320neo Is the best plane in its class, airlines have ordered over 380...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

Funny how we don't see this angst when an airline goes full Airbus. Its treated as the "normal" thing to do. I don't believe SWA gets the shaft from Boeing when it comes to deals on 737s. It's honestly a joke at how some people react to an airline not wanting A320s and especially A321s. A...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 2Q17 $818M Net Profit, Defers A350s
Replies: 71
Views: 12096

Re: United 2Q17 $818M Net Profit, Defers A350s Again

It is all up for negotiation. United spends millions every year with Airbus on parts and services. The money could be applied elsewhere. Airbus isn't going to risk damaging the relationship with a big airline like United. Deposits are usually under 3% and have been as low as zero for subsequent ord...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

The customer that is on the verge of swapping to an Airbus fleet. . Sales campaigns last a year or so, but airplanes are operated for two decades. Relationships matter and trust is important. A CEO like Brad Till is not going to make a comment like that if he feels it will hurt him. He has pretty m...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 148
Views: 22890

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

The article linked in the start post has this interesting quote from Alaska's CEO: Is this how AS makes fleet decisions :scratchchin: My thought exactly. He just said it out loud with a straight face. I wonder how if Boeing would leverage those emotions and sell them Max's with higher prices since ...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A350 Dead In North America?
Replies: 69
Views: 19917

Re: A350 Dead In North America?

The A350 is becoming available at the wrong time. Long haul RASM has been under pressure from over capacity. Meanwhile Air Canada, American and United have all take about 30 787s in the past 5 years without retiring many airplanes adding to their long haul fleets. This is occurring when oil prices a...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 2Q17 $818M Net Profit, Defers A350s
Replies: 71
Views: 12096

Re: United 2Q17 $818M Net Profit, Defers A350s Again

One last question. If United did just cancel the A350s all together, would the financial hit be a one-time hit? I assume huge, but maybe they are weighing the one-time kick in the jewels, then get back to making money??? It is all up for negotiation. United spends millions every year with Airbus on...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 2Q17 $818M Net Profit, Defers A350s
Replies: 71
Views: 12096

Re: United 2Q17 $818M Net Profit, Defers A350s Again

When it's time to replace the 772's, why wouldn't United just order more 789's for the Pacific and 787-10's for the Atlantic? Wouldn't that be more efficient than adding a new fleet type? Depends on how much it would cost to cancel/defer the A350s. United admitted when they ordered the 359s that th...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 2Q17 $818M Net Profit, Defers A350s
Replies: 71
Views: 12096

Re: UA defers A350s again, accelerates 737 MAX 9 and 787-10 deliveries

There's not really a place in the UA fleet for A350s until maybe 2025 or 2030 when the oldest 777-200ERs need to be replaced. Does that mean these A350 deposits become A321s and A330s in the nearer-term? Or A359s and A35Ks in the longer term? I imagine that decision will get punted down the road a ...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United 2Q17 $818M Net Profit, Defers A350s
Replies: 71
Views: 12096

Re: UA defers A350s again, accelerates 737 MAX 9 and 787-10 deliveries

Well we already knew, but this confirms that UA will operate both the 737-9 and 737-10.

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359
Replies: 139
Views: 17890

Re: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359

Does anyone want to talk about Delta or is an A vs B war just that much fun? I really wonder how the A339 and A350 fleet will fit in the overall network. Delta is downgauging its largest planes as 747s retire while increasing average size of its Transatlantic fleet with A339s. How will this all work...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?
Replies: 47
Views: 9824

Re: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?

AA is now the largest A321 operator, and will have over 300 in a few years, with a good portion inherited from US, and they've been nothing but miracle workers. Miracle workers? What Miracles are they working for AA? The study I posted included CASM per operator per fleet type. The AA or US A321s d...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?
Replies: 47
Views: 9824

Re: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?

I don't want to be provoked into an A vs B war, so I will say look at Embraer 175 vs 170 sales ratio for US carriers in the last 5 years to see a similar shift towards the higher capacity derivative. Though not many airlines have upgraded E175 orders to the larger E195/E195. An upgrade from E170 to...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?
Replies: 47
Views: 9824

Re: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?

Mjoelnir, the US airlines upgauged 50 seat regional jets to 66 and then 76 seat regional jets. The mainline airlines who ordered those 76 seat Embraer 175s are also the ones that have shifted from 737-800s to 737-900ERs as well as A321s. Every segment of the domestic US market has seen upgauging. Ri...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?
Replies: 47
Views: 9824

Re: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?

What other frame has shown a similar rise in sales? Care to name one? I don't want to be provoked into an A vs B war, so I will say look at Embraer 175 vs 170 sales ratio for US carriers in the last 5 years to see a similar shift towards the higher capacity derivative. If we look at Embraer E-Jet f...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?
Replies: 47
Views: 9824

Re: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?

The A321 is a great plane, but not the only one that has seen sales dramatically rise in the last 5 years in the US. What other frame has shown a similar rise in sales? Care to name one? I don't want to be provoked into an A vs B war, so I will say look at Embraer 175 vs 170 sales ratio for US carr...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?
Replies: 47
Views: 9824

Re: Why Is the A321 so popular with US carriers?

Here is a great analysis on capacity growth in the US market Unsurprisingly, the recent yield declines appear to coincide with creeping capacity growth for US carriers systemwide, but particularly in the domestic market. Recent capacity growth in the domestic markets, once significantly slower than ...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359
Replies: 139
Views: 17890

Re: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359

Damn...pesky facts. :smile: If the assumptions Airbus is making about the A339 are true....and honestly, they probably are....at TATL flight lengths the A339 and 787-9 will be virtually identical in terms of fuel burn and CASM. The difference...the 787-9 is a much more robust and capable aircraft. ...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Jul 17, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359
Replies: 139
Views: 17890

Re: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359

There is not a conspiracy at the FAA to promote Boeing causing this. I simply can't imagine that happening. Their mission statement used to include "The promotion of American aviation and aerospace" (wording may not be exact, but it's certainly the gist) which some considered a conflict o...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359
Replies: 139
Views: 17890

Re: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359

Entirely possible and other airlines are doing it. LH for example. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/lufthansa-to-operate-a350-under-triple-type-rating-433856/ Unless the FAA finds a reason to avoid it. Let's say leverage the table on Boeing's behalf (due to Boeing's lack of capability to ...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:38 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Maintaining a little used airliner airworthy ....
Replies: 9
Views: 750

Re: Maintaining a little used airliner airworthy ....

The cheapest way to operate a low utilization 737 is to contract out the engineering and maintenance. There are companies like Cavok that will take care of the airworthiness requirements. The Airworthiness Directives, maintenance program and repair paperwork can be costly and difficult to stay on to...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Advice needed: saw something odd about an overflying flight
Replies: 23
Views: 4547

Re: Advice needed: saw something odd about an overflying flight

What kind of leak are we talking about? A major leak would be noticed by multiple persons. If the leak was significant enough for it to be an emergency, i wouldn't have to do anything. It looked like fuel dumping. A long stream of fuel from the right wing near the tip that lasted beyond when the pl...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359
Replies: 139
Views: 17890

Re: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359

] Prove it. The A350-900 is a newer design with newer engines. Seems fairly harsh. Can you prove the opposite? The fact that quite a number of airlines have both 787 and A350 in their fleets shows that it depends on how you use them. And none of us have the details, and even if someone has the detai...

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