Search found 1433 matches

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

DartHerald wrote:
Do the accountants factor in interest (or loss of it) when calculating the deferred costs? It would surely be realistic to do that.


No interest since the cash flow already paid the costs. No money is owed to anyone.

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA drops 6 NFL charter operations
Replies: 61
Views: 11522

Re: AA drops 6 NFL charter operations

3 or 4 widebodies are usually available as spares for the big 3, but the NFL requires 12-16 charters per week. Also the season starts in August with preseason games when the airlines are running st peak capacity.

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

What market analysts believe that Boeing doesn't have a very good chance of retiring all deferred cost within the life of the program? Do you have a link or source? A simple google search will find you very many links. For example, a number of analysts are quoted in this article: http://www.seattle...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I actually think that Boeing has a very good chance of retiring all deferred cost within the life of the program. Many market analysts disagree with you.: What market analysts believe that Boeing doesn't have a very good chance of retiring all deferred cost within the life of the program? Do you ha...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 206
Views: 29506

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

My point is I think AS is making a mistake sticking to solely Boeing. Your obvious Airbus fascination aside, your comments are vague & offer no substantiation. If AS was making such a huge mistake with being Boeing since the 60's, with the exception of their M80's, which AS states were a mistak...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

There's a related commercial point. A few of our a.net friends would like to see a rework of the 789 and 78J to boost MTOW and payload/range. The current 789 isn't competitive against the 359 at the outer end of the payload/range curve and the 78J can't compete on trans-Pacific routes. But with $26...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 206
Views: 29506

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

It's crazy how emotionally invested some people get over an airline operating an airplane. True. With that stated, why is going all Airbus accepted as normal and smart yet going all Boeing is bad or retro? Its so humorous reading the double standard. Airbus has 60% of the narrow body market and gro...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I don't know if that is going to change leehamnews opinion regarding the deferred production costs coming down "fast enough"? But it looks pretty damn good to me! The point is that it is not good enough to clear the deferred cost pile within the accounting block of 1,300 aircraft. Many pe...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I am sorry if it bothers you saying that there is more than simply doom and gloom going on that we can discuss. What bothers me is that people are playing down deferred cost discussions by telling how great the stock market is. Or saying there's nothing to see here because the 787 is cash positive....

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I read this today about the 787s being profitable and bringing in positive cash flow That's really not the point of this discussion. As I just mentioned above, it's so weird that every time again someone tries to distract the discussion with how great Boeing is doing. We are trying to get a picture...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QF passengers delayed in DXB for almost two days
Replies: 49
Views: 6196

Re: QF passengers delayed in DXB for almost two days

They ended with chartering an A380 from Emirates anyway. Do it straight away, you have less cost overall and reasonable satisfied customers. Two things: first, when did it become apparent that the repair could not be effected immediately? Second, did EK have an aircraft just sitting waiting for som...

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by Newbiepilot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Straight from the earnings call today: Boeing 787 deferred production costs fall about 2% in Q2 from Q1 to $26.5bn https://twitter.com/R_Wall/status/890187384633032706 Just as Leeham predicted, deferred costs are not going down fast enough . And as our thread shows, "fast enough" is a sub...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Boeing spent $12B to develop 777X, that's 42% of the $28B spent to develop 787. Yet, 777x so far managed to get 25% of the orders that 787 got. In other words, if we look at the ratio of billions spent on development over the number of orders, then 787 is doing better than 777x in terms of return o...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Boeing spent $12B to develop 777X, that's 42% of the $28B spent to develop 787. Yet, 777x so far managed to get 25% of the orders that 787 got. In other words, if we look at the ratio of billions spent on development over the number of orders, then 787 is doing better than 777x in terms of return o...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

All this moaning about Leeham being anti-Boeing is hilarious. They're not anti-Boeing, but rather strongly critical of Boeing's management. Given the way that Boeing's management has catastrophically screwed up the 787 program, that's hardly a contentious position to take, even before considering t...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Revelation wrote:
WIederling wrote:
A330 NEO shows that the single effective improvement was via engine sfc.

Maybe you should wait till one flies before asserting this? :stirthepot:


The 777x has outsold the A330neo. That could mean that new engine plus new wing is better than just new engine. How about that for pot stirring?

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: HA adds PDX-OGG, on A321neo
Replies: 47
Views: 5913

Re: HA adds PDX-OGG, on A321

As has been discussed before, this fleet alteration by HA will, IMO, change the dynamics of West Coast - HI flying for all involved. I can't see anyone pulling out of flying to the Islands but, well, for one, thing, it will reduce the number of wide bodies offered on the routes, while increasing th...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

And, it's equally valid to flip your argument around and point out that the A35K itself will be up against stiff competition (from the 779 and 78X). In other words, the A35K will not have the market for large twins all to itself the way that the 77W once did. -ir No need to flip the argument at all...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

A re-engined 777-300ER may not have competed adequately with the A350. An A350-1000 is just short of 25% more efficient than a 77W. Just to make ones case on glossy paper only you need the "going from 9 across to10 across", "much more efficient CFRP wing", "super folding wi...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Just as a thought exercise, what if Boeing had instead offered the 77W as is but with the GE9X engine? I.e., the only new expense being the engine (bumped up to 110-115k). So basically just a re-engine and 10% efficiency gain with less potential problems filling seats and saving all the expense of ...

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by Newbiepilot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

...How much more expensive is the 779 to operate vs the 77W? .... On the day of first 779 delivery 77W FMV would be between $80M-$100M. Why would you buy a 779 at $175M-$200M, even if 779 less expensive to operate? My own guesstimates. Airplanes continue to sell even after they enter service. Event...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

...The 77X is going to get more orders. There is no evidence to support that statement. B77W - 819 orders. Will be replaced with B787s or A350s or even A330 family based on capacity/range requirement. A380 - -317 orders. Even if every A380 order is delivered and replaced with B777X, still only 317 ...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.
Replies: 33
Views: 4923

Re: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.

Crew rests is up to the airline crew contracts.[/url] . It is pretty clearly defined under FAR 117 as we discussed in your prior thread. The good news is that 13 hours of duty time with a Class III crew rest exceeds th A321LR range. The crew contracts can be more restrictive as you say. http://www....

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: IAG orders more A330s for Level
Replies: 37
Views: 9464

Re: IAG orders more A330s for Level

Good to see commitment from IAG for Level. I wonder if more of the relatively new A332s at Iberia could be transferred to Level and we could see more A350 or 787 orders from IAG. I can't imagine the A332 being offered for sale much longer. Level could be like Rouge where older planes get transferred...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.
Replies: 33
Views: 4923

Re: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.

What I am predicting is that Keesje will shortly be posting a picture of the A322/A323 that address all the weak spots he mentioned My feeling is as well that this thread has been started with the A322 in mind... But why not. we have the silly season right now... Well the A322 would address those w...

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by Newbiepilot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.
Replies: 33
Views: 4923

Re: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.

This is kind of a weird thread. The A321LR is simply an A321NEO with a 7,000lbs MTOW increase. It is not that earth shattering. The A321neo is selling very well. Only a fraction of the A321neos will probably be the LR version. The average A321 stage length is only about 2 hours and 1000 miles. What ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Should Finnair order smaller wide-body jets?
Replies: 19
Views: 4732

Re: Should Finnair order smaller wide-body jets?

I think a smaller plane for their long haul network would be beneficial. Only having A350s on order is a bit big of a plane. The A333 as the smallest long haul plane is a bit big. I don't see the A338 or A332 making sense. The operating costs of those planes aren't much lower than the A333/A339 and ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Jul 23, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

So now we talk about what 1500? 1800? frames before all is repaid. Repaid? No, the money is already paid. You should be saying "accounted for" instead of "repaid", because all we're talking about is about the accounting. And as above we see other programs grow the accounting qua...

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by Newbiepilot
Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Would it not be smarter for LH to skip the 777x? The deposits can be changed to 787 used into the LH group. Also LH has complained about the 777x to much is defined by ME3. Perhaps the A350 9 and 10 improvements and better then expected performance is giving results? Eventually I see the 777-9 fitt...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 206
Views: 29506

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

And you know THAT HOW?? Do you have operational data to support that? I'd doubt that you can support that assumption.. The facts are out there. The A319 is superior to the 737-700, the 737-800/A320 are a tossup and the A321 is vastly superior to the 737-900 in terms of passengers, range, performanc...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 206
Views: 29506

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

The facts are out there. The A319 is superior to the 737-700, the 737-800/A320 are a tossup and the A321 is vastly superior to the 737-900 in terms of passengers, range, performance, and number sold. Facts don't lie. Umm, the A319 is superior to the 737-700 is a fact? If you think things are so bla...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Where does the profits come from for the 30 extra billions Boeing did spend on the dividends, bonuses and share buy backs? . The 737 and 777 programs have earned over $30 Billion over the past 12 years. Boeing also runs a defense business with over $30 Billion in revenue as well per year so that is...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Some simple facts that seemed to get drowned in the displeasure of Boeing fan boys at there company being "attacked". Facts unfavourable to Boeing seem to constitute an attack. Your statement on equity is true. Boeing has been reducing shareholder equity and total equity. Meanwhile stock ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

By repeatedly increasing the block size rather than creating a new block once this block is finished you are just admitting up front there is a loss. Yes, the whole point is to cover what everyone knows is a loss, the fact that the first planes are deeply loss-making. My later post gives Boeing's s...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Some simple facts that seemed to get drowned in the displeasure of Boeing fan boys at there company being "attacked". Facts unfavourable to Boeing seem to constitute an attack. Your statement on equity is true. Boeing has been reducing shareholder equity and total equity. Meanwhile stock ...

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by Newbiepilot
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 206
Views: 29506

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

Bummer. I was really hoping Alaska would diversify the fleet a bit. I personally prefer the Airbus 319/20/21 over the 737. Who knows, maybe Alaska will change it's mind a year or two down the line. Fingers crossed! Even if they just kept the A321neo, I'd be happy. Something different to play around...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I think there's different definitions of loss depending on whether you talking about it from a cash or accrual (accounting) basis. Nope. I'm pretty sure that a loss is a loss whether you are talking cash or accounting. However, on an accrual basis, a sale can't be below the per-airplane costs deter...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: LH apparently cancel 14 of 34 779s

Leeham is never pro-Boeing. Every Boeing aircraft will do much worse than it does... Not to hijack the thread, but I've noticed this, too, and always wondered why. Is it because Leeham's from Seattle and thinks Boeing's presence there is somehow detrimental and/or has been bad for the economy and l...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: LH apparently cancel 14 of 34 779s

The Leeham article has been rewritten removing the claim that LH cancelled 14 frames. Does this now qualify as "fake news"? I suspect that Stitch has it right and that LH has let their 14 purchase rights/options/or whatever they were expire. Scott's twitter feed ( https://twitter.com/Leeh...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 195
Views: 25061

Re: LH apparently cancel 14 of 34 779s

Boeing should not have moved ahead with the 777X, IMHO... That is a rather bold opinion, but I have seen a number of people post that opinion on the website when they focus on the number of airlines who have ordered the plane. The way I look at it is that large widebody orders have been soft for a ...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL will fund LGA terminal project without Goldman
Replies: 69
Views: 8971

Re: DL will fund LGA terminal project without Goldman

Or, we can continue to under-invest in LGA (and the biggest U.S. airports in general) and everybody can keep declaring what a crap-hole is LaGuardia. Unless they plan to re-align the runways or build new runways, it'll still be a crap-hole. The approved architectural plans do move the terminal area...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

It is worth noting that Boeing is going through a huge cost reduction program across the company http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/17/news/companies/boeing-signals-may-layoffs/index.html Boeing (BA) has been cutting staff to reduce costs since early 2016, primarily through buyouts and the attrition of ex...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

What has been described is a clear business case for A333Neo. Can be produced and sold for USD 100 million. If A333NEO is 30-40% less expensive compared to B789 and with efficiency within 1-2% from B789 for 80-90% of its missions, it will be sold in big quantities as long as Boeing need to handle i...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Is Leeham saying anything new compared to 3-6 months ago when he argued (and many of us agreed) the program is not on a pace to pay down the deferred costs in the existing block?. I don't think there is any new information because Boeing has not yet released 2nd quarter financial numbers yet. 787 p...

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by Newbiepilot
Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Leeham news is known for its negative commentary regarding Boeing. In addition to this article the one prior is "Is Norwegian in Trouble, part 2?" (Remember they are an all Boeing operator) and prior to that is "business case for NMA remains uncertain". After a good showing at t...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Is Leeham saying anything new compared to 3-6 months ago when he argued (and many of us agreed) the program is not on a pace to pay down the deferred costs in the existing block?. I don't think there is any new information because Boeing has not yet released 2nd quarter financial numbers yet. 787 p...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Yes, Boeing is reducing deferred costs with each 787 delivery. Is it fast enough? The answer to that is as plain as the nose on your face and everyone knows it. 100% spot on. Rather than attempt to extend the accounting block, I expect Boeing will pick a year and take much of it as a large write-of...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

This confuses me. Unless we aren't speaking about the same thing. The 787 accountinh block is 1300 airplanes. Total orders for the 787 are about 1275. It is entirely feasible that the total number of orders for the 787 will exceed the accounting block either this year or next. Why do you think the ...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Therefore, unless the production cost unexpectedly comes down faster than expected the accounting block will not reduce in number. I don't think anyone expects the accounting block number to reduce. The question is whether Boeing can show a profit with the current accounting block. If not, they hav...

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by Newbiepilot
Thu Jul 20, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 278
Views: 21206

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I think there are a number of people that have been wondering if a write down or expansion of the accounting block is coming on the 787. We've seen some write downs with moving production costs on early airplanes to R&D. 787 has continued to sell and it is likely possible that the accounting blo...

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