When one ranks impactful modern themes in air freight, the 777 conversion ranks with the A350F and covid's bubble and burst. From a practical perspective the 2027 deadline is muted by innovation, and the B778F was expected. It's surprising that the 777 debate is as under-discussed as the 767 re-engi...
Jump to postWhat is the next potential customer? A big UPS order would be a beautiful news. Its probably a little different for all freight airlines - airlines like SQ and CX already have a large fleet of A350s, so the A350F makes sense. UPS does not yet have an A350, so it needs a clear TCO advantage before i...
Jump to postDoes anyone know the ERSF flight testing progress? My limited knowledge includes; the test flight(s) in late summer and a test flight(s) in mid november. From readings they were attempting to maximize on ground testing and were 'working' with local and US regulators. My interpretation/speculation o...
Jump to postOne might consider that he a350f, on its merits and fleet symbiosis, is the better choice for Cathay and family. What's interesting about this order is that Cathay's management team is considering replacing the b748fs mid (useful) life. Further, they see swapping out the a330f with a350f as potentia...
Jump to postAre there any reliable numbers anywhere for how many 747 conversions have been completed (and how many in the works/planned) by each conversion company? (I did google for this, but didn't find relevant answers) Could be useful context for what would be sensible projections/expectations for 777 conv...
Jump to postOne might consider that the ERSF will evolve into a supply driven product. Aercap, Emirates and others will view the conversion program as a means of extending the useful lives of their 777 assets. Thus, as the supply side 'pushes', margins will ~relax as the alternative becomes desert and parts. Wh...
Jump to postSam Chui interviews Richard w/Aercap inside the ERSF @ Dubai https://twitter.com/search?q=ersf&src=typed_query&f=top Range and mass specs a shade under the b772f, ++volume Aercap has 65 firm orders +50 options, Kalitta takes the first 7 expected certification 2024Jan How is this going to eff...
Jump to postFirst correcting myself, "...DOJ have become the parties with the greatest interest in a transaction." = false The DOJ has an interest in averting the merger. Their motivations should have changed. There is now a probability, x>20% that the Jetblue combination would enter chapter 11 within...
Jump to postI am not saying that this is a sure thing, but $SAVE is currently trading as if it has around 1 in 6 shot of going through, and I believe the odds are far better. Apologies if this has been addressed earlier in the thread. The (global)macro is, IMO, the determinate factor affecting the probability ...
Jump to postKE said many times that they will proceed with the merging even if it costs them a lot. At this point I wonder if they have any bargaining power against the EU. What prevents the EU from asking unreasonable concessions? And which company will buy Asiana cargo operations? Singapore Air, symbiotic an...
Jump to postfun•gi•ble ˈfən-jə-bəl 1: being something (such as money or a commodity) of such a nature that one part or quantity may be replaced by another equal part or quantity in paying a debt or settling an account 2: capable of mutual substitution : interchangeable 3: readily changeable to adapt to new sit...
Jump to postBrian Hermesmeyer's comments are worth a read, esp when considering DHL choosing btwn the 777 & a350 freighter "Making sure that the airplane you're flying integrates well with any existing freighter operations you have in your fleet really has a lot to do with keeping as close to a standar...
Jump to post~28 new b772fs from 2019 ~7 used b772fs from 2019 dhl is converting b772LRs to freighter ACMI partners converting b773ersfs for contract w/dhl In the mid-teens the dhl/lufthansa thesis was "current and proposed vla freighter options are unacceptable", but transitioned to a 'committed' rela...
Jump to postIt had been reported that IAI was focusing on ground testing in the spring and summer. Engaging with regulators was part of this effort. From a cost perspective, this leads one to hypothesize that IAI was attempting to maximize ground testing, would they be apprehensive(cost) regarding regulator fli...
Jump to postfrom the Air Cargo Discussion thread Mammoth dropped their lawsuit against Sequoia. https://leehamnews.com/2023/10/02/mammoth-quietly-drops-trade-secrets-theft-lawsuit/ The 777LR conversions holding interest as the converted frames should manage higher density than the 773er conversions. from the 'A...
Jump to postExciting! The oldest 77W frames have breached the 20-year mark, meaning that freighter conversions will potentially start to ramp up. Wondering what the market for 77W conversions will look like. Sheer feedstock and proven operational reliability are good signs for continued operational life. Timin...
Jump to postBoeing 762*f activity Three years ago... ...it may take a few seconds to load Functionally the fleet is ~same size = ~51, ~same average age ~38yrs, ~same number of operators ~10/11 Some of the differences include: ~20% of the current fleet is parked but considered likely to revenue operate this pea...
Jump to postBoeing 762*f activity Three years ago I posted a summary of the 762 freighter fleet. The exercise has been replicated using current data. links to the pdfs are below (it takes as long as 15seconds to load) Functionally the fleet is ~same size = ~51, ~same average age ~38yrs, ~same number of operator...
Jump to posthttps://www.skyliner-aviation.de/regdb.main?LC=nav4&page=3 Air Belgium/Hongyuan Group has returned one of its three 748Fs to the lessor. However, a flight to Marana could also mean maintenance of some sort. Me thinks Atlas may be interested. certainly a clever strategy to retire 472 ;) opinion:...
Jump to postArguments pro being mentioned earlier are: The A330-900F not being denied for near future by Faury. The interest Amazon had (has?) in the A330-900F. But there are are also arguments against it: It erodes A330P2F conversions at EWF and/or it will not sell due to the cheaper alternative P2F. It reduc...
Jump to postSorry if this is OT, however are there any updates from Airbus with regards to the A321neo freighter? Has been discussed about 5 months ago. https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1480185&p=23683343&hilit=A330+neo+freighter#p23683343 A330-900neo is more likely to be announc...
Jump to postQuestion is will UPS buy the 777 freighter ? Seems like a good replacement for older 744 and MD11s The probability is low; comparative to other carriers, in the short term. My projections are 1) UPS is studying the 787/764 as candidates for the next subfleet; 2) they view the a359f as an optimal re...
Jump to postJetOneX seems grounded all their 744s in these few months (include Longtail aviaiton & Air Atlanta Icelandic) some were sent to GBA for storage (TF-AMD/TF-AME/TF-AMK) does anyone know the company situation of JetOneX? I noticed this reviewing idled 744*fs last week, and had similar questions. W...
Jump to postCargofacts podcast claims Western Global "On the verge of collapse". https://twitter.com/CargoFacts/status/1674875528224940032 Neff bought $115m of WGN debt for ~$46m https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-06-30/western-global-airlines-ceo-jim-neff-leapfrogs-creditors-in-bid-to-s...
Jump to post5X won’t touch the Global MDs for several reasons. 1) CEO is touting herself as the champion of reducing capital spending. Why buy more of an aircraft you’re sending ones to VCV already? 2) 5X has the experience with Western Globals fleet. They’ve loaded them, they’ve unloaded them, they’ve done tu...
Jump to postDon Quixote de la Mancha scours the forum wilderness quipping "maximize credible data., minimize opinions..." ...while the witches of the Air Cargo Discussion shriek "you will conform my pretty ...ah.hahahaha" * what one should care passionately about is the credibility and deter...
Jump to postWhy would UPS purchase badly maintained / long time stored WGA MD11"s ? Only green CF6 engines could be usefull and some CF6 specific parts (pylon parts, etc. ) The UPS CF6 powered MD11's will soldier on for several years and can act as a buffer for the peak. The retired PW powered UPS MD11 fl...
Jump to postOne might consider that UPS purchasing the five ~25yr old Lufthansa MD11s from Western Global would add accreditive value. The utility/economics that the MD11 provides is low cost surge/peak volume for the same gate footprint as the 763. When one panels demand between normal and peak; take average d...
Jump to postFedex to shut down 29 more aircraft as demand shrinks https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fedex-to-shut-down-29-more-aircraft-as-demand-shrinks keying on the last highlight; has Subramaniam and team decided to freeze the 767 & 777 order book? Highlights: "FedEx Express retired 18 aircraft in ...
Jump to post"...Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal...said a conceptual 787-9 freighter is "probably not" going to need a folding wing to act as a 767-300ER replacement and fit the same ramp footprint ." https://theaircurrent.com/feed/dispatches/boeing-says-folding-winglet-unlikely-for...
Jump to postHow are VLA load factors? rates? VLA parking and storing is nominally increasing. In contrast to idling and storing, penciling for scrapping appears to be isolated to the PW MD11s? Atlas has parked five b744fs (two listed as 'stored'); these are factory frames with an average age of 21yrs old. China...
Jump to postHow would a d-gate footprint b789f affect throughput at the superhubs? TCO? What is the current debate on the b763f production constraint? Will FX place a top up order in the next six weeks? projection: going into 2028, the b763f will represent ~one third of the global widebody freighter fleet data:...
Jump to postIn anyones estimation, is the softening of the global frieght market having any negative impact on the pace of conversions? It's an interesting question. The below a332 data point suggests the dichotomy of supply and demand. For your consideration, is there a confluence of determinate factors at pl...
Jump to postFedEx has sent N575FE to the desert. Originally delivered to Garuda Indonesia, this GE powered airframe had 93856 hours and 21701 cycles on it as of this month. 5824177 Is FX making blanket MD11 retirements of any frame nearing heavy maint? Is there expectations/projections that GE powered frames w...
Jump to postFedEx and UPS plan MD11 retirement https://aerocrewnews.com/obzh Hard to see them not being retired soon afterwards with the remaining operators. there only one operator besides FedEx and UPS, Western Global. (not sure if the only priovate MD-11 is still flying) One might consider that Subramaniam ...
Jump to postWell, this is an aviation website - so by default we are people who love flying. I will go out of my way to take a short hop. I love the sensation of the quick trip. Give me an ORD-MKE flight! One would think a true aviation enthusiast would live under the flight path close the airport to hear the ...
Jump to postOn my last AA flight from JFK to DCA we had the dubious privilege of TWO straight missed approaches by coming in too high over the Potamac (on the River Visual in very foggy weather). After going from Manhattan to JFK, going through TSA, boarding, taxiing & then flying the 45 minutes before hav...
Jump to postWhere is the Korean/Asiana combination getting all the money to buy the planes anet has penciled for purchase? This is basically a merger of two bankrupt airlines in which the govt has become a part owner?, and brings with them an additional set of mandates. The combination continues to operate in a...
Jump to postThe first to be retired was N280UP, PW4460 powered, ferried to VCV at 02 January 2023 The second retirement was N283UP, also PW4460 powered, ferried to VCV at 16 January 2023 for storage (or worse !) AFAIK no more have been retired up to now, the PW powered UPS MD11F aircraft seem to be first on th...
Jump to post747classic wrote: natc141 wrote: UPS has 2 747-8 under option according to latest financial statement…from Air Bridge Cargo?? Only one ex ABC 747-83QF is available : VQ-BFE, owner Altavair AirFinance, impounded at HKG, stored at MZJ. Do you have a link to the mentioned financial statement ? Rumor i...
Jump to post"Boeing: B787F most likely candidate to succeed B767F" https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1476711 This is a robust conversation from sep/oct 2022. There are several links to data sources and statements from Calhoun, Hermesmeyer... One could pencil a b789f with a b783 w...
Jump to postI take it that you believe no more 744 PAX will ever get converted to freighter. For fun how many 744 PAX and Combi (stored or active) are still worthy(hours and cycles) of consideration if the price is right and IAI gets partner help to restart conversions. Are the Qantas stored ERs not scrapped y...
Jump to postI thought that Hindustan was looking at some kind of partnership with IAI to either buy into/restart the 747 conversion business. The 4 India Air 744s would be the pilot project and I assume would be done in India and create a bunch of Indian jobs. Not sure if the remaining 744 feedstock on earth w...
Jump to postIs there any information about conversion rate going forward? And order backlog? I can't find any source that keeps track of A330 P2F. while incomplete, my notes are below. absent a tracking resource, my thought was to share/encourage_sharing using this thread. I hope this helps. "ST Engineeri...
Jump to posta330p2f conversion progress report There are currently 23 conversions delivered. 15 a333 (12 rr, 3 pw) and 8 a332s (rr) While RR conversions have been all but exclusive; dresden started working on the first GE powered a332 for qantas. source: https://cargofacts.com/magazine-content/shorts/first-ge-...
Jump to postAs air transat has chosen to replace the A310s with new A321 LR NEO. i was wondering if air transat could choose the A350-941 or the A330-800 to replace the A330s? I would choose the spacious A350-941 with a fairly high ceiling if compared to the old A330s! respects in regards to your appreciation ...
Jump to postI have done a little delve on Planespotters.net on the ‘stored’ FX 757 fleet. l have noticed a handful of Pratt 757 frames being flagged at VCV, dating back as far as pre-pandemic 2019. With Air Cargo slowly dwindling, I cant presage a slim chance of these mothballed frame returning from the desert...
Jump to postLAXintl wrote:FedEx continues to see decreased demand and plans $1 billion in additional cuts.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/20/fedex-f ... -2023.html
Is there a scenario in which National offering to purchase PW powered MD11s from FedEx could make sense? FedEx aspires to adjust its fleet and PW powered a306s and md11s are candidates for the bench. FedEx projects that they aspire to emphasize their GE powered MD11 frames. Is it beginning to make e...
Jump to postThe link to the last posted revision.(21dec) of boeing 767 freighter production past-->present--> future.projected https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oWPFtWWOH8GTQ8tBVCzbai0sc09FW3Rf/view?usp=sharing In the details, one can see that the anomalous change is that the Longhao orders were redistributed T...
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