Search found 525 matches

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by kavok
Wed May 22, 2019 12:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL AND UA load factor question
Replies: 6
Views: 1125

Re: DL AND UA load factor question

I think it varies which markets you are looking at. For most of the routes I fly, AA tends to be the cheapest between AA, DL, & UA. DL does tend to be higher than UA/AA for me as well... unless B6 or WN are flying it also.

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by kavok
Wed May 22, 2019 12:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 348
Views: 44747

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2019

What are everyone’s thoughts on JAL’s SAN-NRT flight? More specifically, do you see JAL switching the flight to HND with one of their many new HND-USA slots in 2020? Obviously HND is a better location for Tokyo bound traffic, but NRT will likely still offer better onward connections to Asia. That be...

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by kavok
Mon May 20, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Delta is soon to be done in NRT. They will not be flying a half-empty flight from the US mainland to NRT just to continue operating SIN/MNL. If operating SIN/MNL is that important, they’ll either fly it direct from the mainland, utilize KE, or (unlikely but possibly) utilize KIX/NGO. By summer 2020 ...

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by kavok
Sun May 19, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Regardless, it will be interesting to see how AA/JL and UA/NH balance the connecting flows between HND/NRT. While NYC/LAX/SFO/HNL may be able to support both NRT & HND, for most other markets it will likely become service just to HND and not NRT.... which makes it important for NH/JL to make mor...

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by kavok
Sat May 18, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Is a BOS-HND flight more likely to go to JAL or to ANA, and why? I think JAL is more likely. ANA is going to have some tough decisions on where their 6 new slots go, and ANA is not going to have enough slots to serve everywhere they’d like. From HND, ANA already serves JFK, ORD, LAX. For ANAs 6 new...

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by kavok
Fri May 17, 2019 7:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

The most interesting question to me here is what happens to MNL and SIN for DL. Possible scenarios: - DL adds one or both of these routes out of Seattle, possibly with a short gap in service or weird timing until the new IAF opens. Pros: grows the Seattle hub, might be able to run SQ out of town. C...

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by kavok
Fri May 17, 2019 7:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

With Tokyo becoming an international spoke and ICN taking over the role of intra-Asia hub, what are the chances DL, as a distant third in alliance market share, will maintain seven flights a day years down the road? Tokyo is a huge market but I don’t think any other non-Sky Team international stati...

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by kavok
Fri May 17, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

As for AA... as others have said, they didn't put together the strongest application package. If the leadership is frustrated, a large part of it is on them. The leadership is frustrated with the HND award? AA applied for what makes financial / network sense. I'd say there's a good chance this is a...

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by kavok
Fri May 17, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

It is also worth pointing out that USA-Japan traffic is not growing at a significant rate. USA-Asia isn’t growing that fast either (meaning significant additional flights to Japan to make connections aren’t necessary either). My point being, the market can only support so many USA-Tokyo flights. Sur...

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by kavok
Fri May 17, 2019 3:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL Future at NRT / DOT Tentatively HND - SEA/PDX/ATL/DTW/HNL
Replies: 4
Views: 1088

Re: DL Future at NRT / DOT Tentatively HND - SEA/PDX/ATL/DTW/HNL

4 Potential Options: 1- DL flies MNL/SIN nonstop from either LAX, SEA, or DTW. (Not sure how likely that is.) 2- DL flies SIN/MNL from KIX/NGO as onward tags to DL’s existing flights between DTW/SEA and KIX/NGO. (This would require enough Japanese point of sale in KIX/NGO to make it profitable). 3- ...

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by kavok
Fri May 17, 2019 1:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 527
Views: 65047

Re: Oregon Aviation Thread - 2019

Great news on DLs PDX-HND award. While DL may try and time a flight from SLC to provide some additional connections, the expectation is clearly to concentrate mostly on OD between Portland/Tokyo. What I will find interesting going forward is whether either of the two Japanese carriers will challenge...

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by kavok
Fri May 17, 2019 1:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

After reading the DOT document, my interpretation is that UAs LAX-HND was the last slot chosen, and that the DOT respected each carriers ranking preferences. Thus, had UA ranked IAH ahead of LAX, it is very likely that IAH-HND would have been chosen instead. Also, AA ranking LAS below DFW#2 also kil...

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by kavok
Tue May 14, 2019 1:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DTW-LAN. Why?
Replies: 69
Views: 7130

Re: DTW-LAN. Why?

Technically, even in the abscence of DTW-FNT, the DTW-LAN route isn’t even the shortest intra-Michigan flight Delta sells tickets for. Just sayin...

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by kavok
Mon May 13, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DTW-LAN. Why?
Replies: 69
Views: 7130

Re: DTW-LAN. Why?

Got bored and just started looking through airport destinations from various airports and noticed DTW-LAN. Uh...why does this exist? And there's 5-daily flights as well! The flight is like 75 miles and it's competing directly with Interstate-96. My only guess is politics, Lansing being the capital ...

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by kavok
Mon May 13, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DTW-LAN. Why?
Replies: 69
Views: 7130

Re: DTW-LAN. Why?????

There are at least eight round trip bus trips between Lansing and DTW every day as well. The interesting thing about that bus route is that there used to be no late evening busses from DTW to LAN. They would run multiple busses daily, including one that would get you in time to DTW for a 6am flight...

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by kavok
Mon May 06, 2019 5:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future growth of Spirit Airlines in Detroit.
Replies: 26
Views: 3143

Re: Future growth of Spirit Airlines in Detroit.

The other thing with leisure travelers, particularly from DTW, is that if the destination is within a full one-day drive, it becomes much harder for a cost conscious traveler to fly, especially if they are traveling with others. Richmond is borderline, but still a long, but doable full one-day drive...

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by kavok
Mon May 06, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: A much needed debate on carry on luggage.
Replies: 127
Views: 7956

Re: A much needed debate on carry on luggage.

Education is not going to solve it either. Sure, you can have a line in the preflight safety announcement to leave carry-on luggage behind, but in reality people are just going to forget/ignore it anyway. The odds that even a “million-miler flyer” will ever be in a situation where they have to evacu...

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by kavok
Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019
Replies: 1097
Views: 94701

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

On a side note when WW cam into Detroit KEF was number 55 as an O/D market out of Detroit when they served the route it went up to number 5. Some months saw an in crease of over 1000% in that market now you tell my why if the WCAA did their homework they could put this data together to sell a carri...

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by kavok
Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019
Replies: 1097
Views: 94701

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Enilria’s weekly OAG thread shows that DTW-HNL has been loaded for January 2020. I mention that because many, myself included, wondered if the route would survive past Summer 2019. Glad to see it is reappearing in the winter.

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by kavok
Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France to MSY imminent?
Replies: 61
Views: 11314

Re: Air France to MSY imminent?

I think we are still a good distance away from a SkyTeam TATL flight. Maybe there will be an announcement in the next couple of years if AA/BA continue to grab more market share from DL. None of us at MSY would expect to hear something in 2019. Just glad that MSY appears to be on the shortlist for ...

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by kavok
Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 528
Views: 66473

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

I have been watching these numbers closely since the route started and I do not see it going away. I had at once suspected additional summer service may be in the works, but that may have been prematurely positive based on last summer's service and a bunch of Hoosiers thinking a once in a lifetime ...

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by kavok
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cleveland Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 546
Views: 65661

Re: Cleveland Aviation Thread - 2019

Regarding TATL flights, one aspect that hasn’t been brought up recently is the fact that WW, FI, and EI cater to different markets than say legacies like BA, DL, LH, etc., and that is particularly relevant in CLE’s case because of geography. I just mention it because some are putting all airlines in...

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by kavok
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019
Replies: 1097
Views: 94701

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

WOWs last four USA destinations were BOS,EWR,BWI and DTW. There is a reason those four remained to the end, and I have to believe FI would make note of that. Of those final four seved by WW, FI already serves BOS and EWR. Comparing BWI and DTW, FI formerly served BWI and dropped it. FI also serves I...

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by kavok
Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boston Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 973
Views: 124708

Re: Boston Aviation Thread - 2019

Appears WW is done, anyone see FI adding a third flight or DL jumping on BOS-KEF? I know FI eliminated that third bank so that makes them less likely but seems like the kind of route DL would be interested in I doubt FI adds a third flight, for the reasons you mentioned. Though I would have to beli...

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by kavok
Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019
Replies: 1097
Views: 94701

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Hopefully Icelandair and Aer Lingus were doing their homework. Look what WOW has done during their time at DTW. Traffic to KEF more than double, major European markets grew (also since LH and DL lowered prices), markets like Berlin, Barcelona, Dublin, & Warsaw may have seen stimulation. It's li...

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by kavok
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cleveland Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 546
Views: 65661

Re: Cleveland Aviation Thread - 2019

As far as TATL service, CLE is in an especially tough spot compared to even IND, CVG, PIT, etc. because of the legacy Star Alliance base that remains within the CLE business community. In contrast, PIT has a lot of legacy OneWorld flyers in their business community from the old USAir hub. Thus BA is...

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by kavok
Tue Mar 26, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: NH expanding North America routes in 2020
Replies: 82
Views: 11630

Re: NH expanding North America routes in 2020

Don’t forget that NH is likely getting about 6 new USA slots into HND. That is probably the growth they are referring to when discussing this 2020 expansion. At this point, NH is going to probably wait and see which locations the US DOT awards HND slots to, and then make a decision. UA put in a bid ...

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by kavok
Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

MARSHAL1 wrote:
Wow, that's some great charts from Las Vegas. It really looks like Las Vegas is making sure that they get a HND flight.


LAS seems to be implying they are HNL lite.

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by kavok
Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

I think the opposite is true. UA and AA can offer more than just o/d to Haneda, they can offer connections onward in Japan via their JV partners. Their routes are also more viable with feed to their routes from both ends vs. just US feed for DL. DL's past history of slot-squatting might hurt them, ...

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by kavok
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=DOT-OST-2019-0014
-->

We have two responses so far, one from PortAuthority of NYNJ and one from City of Houston. Both documents argue the benefits of United’s proposed HND flight from EWR and IAH respectively.

https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=DOT-OST-2019-0014

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by kavok
Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

In conclusion, I think it's pretty much a 50/50 toss-up chance as to whether or not PDX makes the cut. While Delta has presented a very good case for the route, in my opinion, it is still only their 4th priority route of the mix. SEA-HND and DTW-HND are pretty much locked in, although the other air...

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by kavok
Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Why everyone is saying that the slot will be awarded in daily terms? Would there be possibilities that DOT will award 3 weekly + 4 weekly 'share' of the daily slot? So what we know so far is: AA request: DFW/LAX/DFW/LAS in order DL request: SEA/DTW/ATL/PDX/HNL/HNL HA request: HNL/HNL/HNL and UA req...

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by kavok
Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

I would bet money on these 10 getting picked: AA: DFW1, LAX DL: SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX HA: HNL1 UA: EWR, ORD, IAD Then it gets interesting. By process of elimination, there are 9 bids for the last 2 spots. I would guess: - DL's HNL#1 eliminates HA's HNL#2 & HNL#3, because if the DOT awards any more ...

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by kavok
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:43 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why there is no UA's transpacific routes from IAH except Tokyo NRT and Sydney, Australia?
Replies: 64
Views: 6786

Re: Why there is no UA's transpacific routes from IAH except Tokyo NRT and Sydney, Australia?

Just look at yesterday's HND slot filing, UA applied for 6 different HND slots. IAH was one of them, but was number 5 on that list. UA already flies from SFO, so effectively IAH was ranked as UA's sixth highest priority overall for Tokyo Haneda service. Compare that to AA's network, where DFW is ess...

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by kavok
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019
Replies: 1097
Views: 94701

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Without going through the dumpster-fire of the HND thread, can someone give the synopsis of what exactly the new HND slot allocation entails; and attempt to seperate fact vs. speculation. Cliff notes version: AA, DL, HA, UA made slot requests to the DOT for 12 new slots at HND. The awarded flights ...

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by kavok
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

So with all the extra HND slots opening up for the Japanese carriers does anyone see NH or JL starting DTW-HND ? No. There is obviously no connecting partner (AA or UA) on the DTW side, so it would have to rely entirely on DTW O/D... which is strong, but not that strong. From a pure O/D perspective...

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by kavok
Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

What about JL and NH predictions? These could be impacted by what AA / UA receive. JL: BOS DFW (AA will get 1 for sure) ORD (AA will probably drop NRT) CLT / MIA / PHX / PHL (tie into AA hubs) AUS (I’m reaching) NH: BOS DEN (UA didn’t apply) IAD / IAH / ORD (depending on UA) LAX SEA I imagine a few...

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by kavok
Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

General Question: Each of the carriers has submitted a preferential order. What are the chances the DOT would “skip” a choice and award another route further down the list for that carrier? For example, if the DOT preferred UA’s 5th choice of IAH over their 4th choice of LAX, would they actually cho...

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by kavok
Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

My prediction: I think there are 10 “Locks”: AA: DFW#1, LAX. DL: SEA,DTW,ATL,PDX. HA: HNL#1 UA: EWR, ORD, IAD I don’t think anyone gets all their choices, so that eliminates the stated “last choices” of: AA to LAS, DL to HNL#2, HA to HNL#3, UA to IAH,GUM Which leaves the final 2 slots up for grabs b...

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by kavok
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Seems like somewhere there is a lawyer for each of AA and DL that is patiently sitting in front of their computer with the application ready to go, and waiting to click the submit/send button. I wonder which of the two blinks first.

Hope the power doesn’t go out...

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by kavok
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Official word from AA: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2019/American-Airlines-to-Apply-for-Additional-Service-at-Tokyos-Haneda-Airport/ So the LAX-HND flight is in addition to the one they already fly. Interesting. I guess that makes up for JAL not flying the route (at least, not yet). Also in...

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by kavok
Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

United submits it’s application: Hopes to serve HND fromEWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, LAX, and GUM. EWR, LAX, and GUM will supplement NRT flights. IAD, ORD, and IAH will replace NRT flights. https://hub.united.com/2019-02-21-united-applies-to-serve-tokyo-haneda-from-six-leading-u-s-hubs-where-demand-is-highe...

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by kavok
Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots
Replies: 709
Views: 117092

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

In total, 50 new slots are being created at HND airport for 2020. Of the 50, half are going to Japanese (x13) and US (x12) carriers. Information per link below. It sounds like the US government agreeing to allow some flight paths over US military air space will help with Tokyo airspace congestion is...

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by kavok
Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions
Replies: 113
Views: 20041

Re: Virgin Atlantic and Alitalia new expansions

Per your previously stated logic around TK and ORD, if there were a market for a nonstop between Italy and DTW for AZ wouldn't they already be flying it? DL has a non-stop DTW-FCO in the schedule April-October. It has run for a few(?) years now. Italy demand from the U.S. is very seasonal. I'm not ...

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by kavok
Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019
Replies: 1097
Views: 94701

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

I feel like a lot of these guys are good at “planned obsolescence” I feel like 3L/21R was reconstructed not all that long ago, like 2004 or 2005. Although I believe part of this project is to relocate the runway 150 feet to the east due in part to height clearance of the parking garage. However, it...

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by kavok
Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 673
Views: 77615

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2019

I think DL could really do well with another route or two out of STL. BOS and maybe LAX come to mind. JFK could be good for international feed/connections. This would give SkyTeam a better presence at STL. It’s nice to see the A321 in STL. I agree that DL could add nonstop service to BOS, LAX, and ...

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by kavok
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019
Replies: 1097
Views: 94701

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

I could see a year round YYC-DTW route by WS, they already fly to YQG so if that can work, why not DTW? Starting in May Air Canada goes to 5 daily on DTW-YYZ. WS needs to take notice and use DTW for feed to the Eastern US as iot is a major Delta hub. AC sees the potential but yet WS don't with the ...

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by kavok
Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Turkish Airlines USA expansion
Replies: 3
Views: 967

Re: Turkish Airlines USA expansion

TK is a growing force and is blossoming. What are the next possible American destinations for this amazing airline? I have to believe it would be one of DEN, SEA, DTW, PHL, or DFW. Those are the 5 obvious ones that stand out. DEN because of *A, and the other four because of international market size.

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by kavok
Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019
Replies: 528
Views: 66473

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2019

as I recall, IND/CDG airfares alone for Paris were hitting roughly $1300+ for coach, $2000+ for comfort plus, and $5000+ for business class. DL is known for not dropping their pricing to increase LF. As part of their long game, it seems they’d rather fly at “normal” TATL pricing (similar to what yo...

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by kavok
Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019
Replies: 1097
Views: 94701

Re: Detroit Air Service Discussion Thread - 2019

Stupid question but when does DL start DTW A220 service? I know it’s on DFW but can’t remember when. I saw my first one in person in DL colors today in DFW. March 1st. The first A220 arrives in on a morning DFW to DTW flight a little after 11am, and that first A220 turns and leaves DTW back to DFW ...

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