Lynx OTP
Thurs 15th: 60.7%
Friday 16th: 54.4%
Sat 17th: 85.2%
Sun 18th: 48.0%.
Data from FR24
Not serving anything on Lynx might make some sense.
With loads all over the map, it would make planning the correct amount of on-board goodies near impossible.
In Lynx's case, they may have concluded that the cost of wasted perishable food far exceeded the profit generated by selling it.
Can officially say I’ve tried Flair! Hopped over to Canada a few days ago on a super cheap last minute AC fare and saw a bargain $19 YEG-YXX itinerary. Flight itself was half an hour late leaving due to deicing but landed near enough on time. Experience wasn’t anything to write home about however p...
Jump to postI'm far more intrigued that YYZ is the center of Porter's universe, which also happens to be the center of another rather large airline who's existence in the market is 100% guaranteed, and have yet to even begin to react to Porter's presence. Imagine a start up deciding to make, oh, say, ATL, ORD o...
Jump to postFriday Feb 16th, heading into a long weekend for most folks in Canada, was not only a bad day at 777 Partners, but also a messy day operationally for Flair. Flair operated 68 sectors with an asl of 1,436 miles. 68 sectors is the highest number flown thus far in Feb, but still below peak holiday seas...
Jump to postPure speculation, but perhaps there are others that might be interested in 9 C- registered tails based in YYC? If they are in play, Indigo would def have pitched them to any and all potential operators. That's just good business. And If you're Indigo, if all things were equal, and they definitely ar...
Jump to postA quick tally of January shows a total of about 160 sectors operated, with each air frame operating an average of 1.6 sectors a day.
Jump to postIf you take a look at the past 90 days of ops for Jetlines C-GCJK, C-GCJL and C--GJLH, (and OWG's C-FHNM), you won't see many operations related to Flair or Lynx. The three Jetlines tails have operated a total of 3 round trips for Flair and none for Lynx since mid November. On Dec 25, a YYZ-FLL r/t....
Jump to postWhile I tend to be a nay-sayer myself, no one here has seen the contracts on the Embraers. It's not like they are flying off the shelf. Is there any chance that PD has a power by the hour lease agreement on them? That would greatly affect the break-even, and explain why utilization is on the lower ...
Jump to postMaybe they're trying to extend their life somehow and/or hope this somehow rejuvenates them with some sort of miracle? This is certainly needed, they can reduce competition between themselves and possibly sell off excess frames to recoup debts and hopefully straighten out there operations , regardl...
Jump to postOn a separate note, PD start YYC-YOW today: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/porter-begins-flights-on-new-ottawa-calgary-route-876367975.html @Acey, curious to see in the coming weeks whether you observe the YYC-YOW having average loads that differ from YYC-YYZ. I know it’s not popular to post...
Jump to postLynx Stats for Weds Feb 14th
20 sectors were operated with a fleet of new 9 737 Max's. That's 2.22 sectors per tail per day and 6hrs 30 mins utilization.
Avg sector block time was 2hrs 55 mins with an asl of 1,352 miles.
OTP was 70%.
Porter will need to bring in another 2-3 tails to manage a daily r/t from YYZ-YXE. Porter operated 66 sectors on Weds Feb 14th with their fleet of 29 tails. Their ASL was 1,335 miles, with an average block time of 2hrs 47 mins. Utilization was 6hrs and 22 mins, with each tail operating just 2.28 sec...
Jump to postNot much discussion here on a related topic: isn't Embraer taking a huge risk here? If Porter couldn't make it work, there would suddenly be a lot of planes on the market, a significant part of the total E295 production so far. Not good for business. I was thinking about the Embraer part of this my...
Jump to postLynx Stats for Tues Feb 13th 19 sectors were operated with a fleet of new 9 737 Max's. That's 2.11 sectors per tail per day and 7hrs 2 mins utilization. Avg sector block time was 3hrs 20 mins with an asl of 1,558 miles. OTP was 89.5%. In the back half of Nov / early Dec, Lynx dispatched about 4,347 ...
Jump to postPorter operated 63 sectors on Tues Feb 13th with their fleet of 29 tails, including the grand total of 3 r/t's within the triangle. ASL was 1,493 miles, with an average block time of 2hrs 47 mins. I say again: 1,493 miles. Utilization was 6hrs and 4 mins, with each tail operating just 2.17 sectors p...
Jump to postReminder this is the Porter thread not the embraer thread. I get that with Porter being the major operator we’re getting the fans here but let’s keep this to Porter - who also has a q fleet - jimbo - what are the q fleets operating stats/utilization? Don’t know and don’t care. The Porter Q operatio...
Jump to postFlair OTP was 38.5% on Sunday’s 65 sectors with the average delay being 1hr 35 mins. 17 of 18 tails operated with C-FLKA in heavy check in Kelowna. Utilization was 11hrs 38 mins. Flair OTP on Monday the 12th was 40.7% with an average delay of 2hrs 37 mins. Utilization was 9hrs 58 mins. 3 aircraft di...
Jump to postIf you want a real head scratcher here's one. Lynx operated 21 sectors on Sunday Feb 11th, a peak day, generating 5,914,377 asms, with 7hrs 34 mins utilization per tail and an asl of 1,490 miles. Lynx operated 26 sectors on Monday Feb 12th, not a shoulder day, generating 6,897,366 asm's, with 8hrs 5...
Jump to postYKA-YVR a head scratcher? Not really. It always has been and always will be a rabid mutt during summer driving season. Mutt's get taken out behind the barn and shot. I don't understand the confusion about why profit motivated businesses discontinues a product. You can safely assume that if it's prof...
Jump to postAnother cost driver moves north..... Lynx stats for Saturday February 10th. 27 sectors operated. 1,617 mile asl. Average sector time 3hrs 28 mins. 10hrs 26 mins avg utilization, 3 sectors per tail per day, 917,007 asm's per tail, 8,253,063 total asm's. OTP 92.6% Data compiled from Flight Radar 24
Jump to postOn Saturday Feb 10th, Porter operated 68 sectors with an ASL of 1,233 miles. Each tail flew an average of 2.34 sectors a day with an avg block time of 2hrs 49mins. Each tail generated 381,657 asm's. All the days costs of operating a 29 tail fleet were divided by just 11,068,962 asm's to calculate th...
Jump to postThe Embraer guy upthread, IIRC, while asserting that the E2 would beat an A220 on CASM (he didn't say -100 or -300), acknowledged that the E2 would lose in CASM to a MAX8. If people want to get into it with specific seat counts and stage length, please do. In terms of utility to the fleet of a give...
Jump to postThe most recent, easily sourced data on Southwest's utilization come from an MIT report in 2015 that had Southwest generating 10:53 block hours a day with an ASL of 750 miles. The shorter the ASL, the higher % of time the aircraft is on the ground loading and unloading passengers. And bear in mind ...
Jump to postPorter is in the commodity business, with a commodity people are unfamiliar with. Porter are in the same predicament as two established gas stations, lets say PetroCanada and Esso, at a three way intersection both charging $1.49 when a third unknown player, lets say, Phillips 66, shows up with a hig...
Jump to postAC's BELF that covers operating costs and interest expense over the first 3 quarters of 2023 was 79.91%. They reported an 87.7% l/f. Their ASL was reported as 1,846 miles. WS is privately held, but an educated guess would have WS's BELF being slighlty lower, likely around 76%. System l/f is unknown....
Jump to postOn Friday Feb 9th, Porter's fleet of 29 tails, (25 of which operated), flew a total of 74 sectors, generating 11,336,355 asms, or 390,909 asm's per tail per day. ASL was 1,161 miles, the average sector time was 2hrs 38 mins. Each tail operated an average of 2.55 sectors a day. OTP was 91.9%. Porter'...
Jump to postLynx operated 27 sectors on Thurs Feb 8th with an asl of 1,435 miles and generating 7,321,671 asm's. In Nov 2023, Lynx generated an avg of 8,637,064 asm's on Thursdays, 18% more than yesterday. That'll have an unpleasant impact on their CASM. Utilization was 9hrs 26 mins. Each of Lynx's 9 frames ope...
Jump to postThis E2’s are magic airplanes. Apparently they make money regardless of yield, loads or utilization. In May 1996, its third month of ops, WestJet generated its first operating profit, and had earned a net profit of $1m in its first 6 months. Even though WS was privately held, the achievement was wel...
Jump to postOctober 2023 Transborder Stats (+/- from September + Info) We've got a very early look at some returning and new transborder loads! Because there were some single pairs of flights, there are some inaugural only numbers! A quick disclaimer on the YYC-LAS pairing, there was 2 missing LAS-YYC legs on ...
Jump to postLynx's Trandborder data, courtesy of the US DoT 41 data.
Jan 1 - Nov 30th 2023: 58.7%, (287,469 seats available, 168,775 seats occupied).
Lynx managed a 52% trans border l/f in Nov 2023.
What a mess.
They def operated YYZ-RSW and YYZ-TPA in the month. It wouldn't be the first time a Canadian airline has been "tardy" in providing data to the DoT, info they are required to provide. The system is complaint driven, and from experience, the DoT is quite responsive when individuals or corpor...
Jump to postThe larger question would be: what would be the point? Combining the two airlines would amount to a fleet of 29 737 tails, 27 max's and 2 737-800's that would / should be quickly dumped for fleet commonality. On Weds Feb 7th, Flair operated a total of 39 sectors using 14 tails, generating just 7hrs ...
Jump to postAcey wrote:Give the Sunwing thing a bit of time to shake out, this summer they're working on the terms for the merger of the pilot groups. If they're still haven't reinstated YYZ-YUL for S25, then I'd be concerned.
Don’t know the guy and he certainly wasn’t around during WS’s high growth period over the first 10 years.
It’s not particularly difficult to be the CFO of a LAA.
Revenue shortfall? Raise fees and AIF’s until there isn’t, and make your customers collect the tax for you.
Nice story, though.
Update: The Only 2 -800's at Flair since at least mid summer 2023 are C-FFLC and C-FFLJ. As per above, C-FFLA was seized for non-payment of rents and reserves. According to FR24, N105TS hasn't operated within the past 90 days. There's likely a good reason why any number of airlines I can think of lo...
Jump to postLynx's operational stats for Tues Feb 6th Lynx operated 8 of 9 tails on the day, generating 21 sectors, an ASL of 1,509 miles, 5,990,355 asm's, (665,595 asm's per tail), with each tail operating just 7hrs 43 mins and 2.63 sectors per day. OTP was 95.2%. C--FULJ operated 5 sectors, generating 32% of ...
Jump to postHow many N registered tails operate Canadian domestic services?
If it’s in decent shape with all the maintenance up to date and good records, the lessor will have no problems placing that aircraft with any number of US operators.
Alas, the track record on the seized Max’s suggests otherwise.
After a month long + hiatus, here are Porter's operational stats for Sunday 4 Feb 2024, a peak travel day. 68 sectors were operated, OTP was 58.8%, completion 91.9%. The AVG delay was 1hr 2 mins. 25 of 29 tails operated. Three tails have been parked at YYZ for an extended period; C-GKQU since Jan 11...
Jump to postIt's been a month since the last Flair operational snap shot. Here's the data for Sunday Feb 4th. 64 sectors operated, OTP 37.5% with 4 sectors taking delays > 5hrs. Jetlines operated a YYZ-CUN r/t with both sectors roughly 4hrs 30 mins late. Two tails are in YLW, presumably at C Check. With two in ...
Jump to postAlways best to keep some powder dry as others respond.
Jump to postAfter about a month's break, let's take a peak at Lynx's operation on Sunday Feb 4th 2024. I'd have assumed Sunday would be a heavy day of operations, deep in the Canadian winter with folks winging off hither and yon in search of that warm bright yellow orb in the sky. Not so fast, Skippy. Flair ope...
Jump to postI have a pretty good understanding of the amount of dough you’d need to safely execute that sort of business plan nearly 30 years ago. Today? I wouldn’t even contemplate it unless I were prepared to blow through at least $250m, and that would be no guarantee of success. I'm guessing that estimate e...
Jump to postI happened to be wandering by B2 at SFO on a busy Sunday afternoon when Porter was off loading a 4hr late arrival. 50 passengers disembarked, or a L/F of 38%. I can’t help thinking about WS’s early days, when any city pair that generated 38% l/f on any rotation was immediately under very tight scru...
Jump to postI happened to be wandering by B2 at SFO on a busy Sunday afternoon when Porter was off loading a 4hr late arrival. 50 passengers disembarked, or a L/F of 38%. I can’t help thinking about WS’s early days, when any city pair that generated 38% l/f on any rotation was immediately under very tight scrut...
Jump to postIt’s interesting to note that, as usual, the media is buying into Flair’s claim it’s saved Canadian’s over $400m, without even asking to see the math to substantiate that claim. In order to substantiate that claim, we’d need to see Flair’s 2023 rpm’s, their total revenues including ancillaries, thei...
Jump to postEven politicians are smart enough not to back a chronically under capitalized, money losing airline, especially when they see the data correlating these sorts of outfits with undesirable, headline incidents.
Jump to postBut why / how is Porter any better off? It would appear someone is willing to pay for their growth and presumably they pay their taxes. Their investor is one of the largest pension funds in the world and they and the Deluce’s signed up to build an airline with 100 frames, burn cash, and hope that b...
Jump to postAs long as they keep on side of foreign ownership rules that apply to all, that’s “their” prerogative.
I’ve never met a business person /. Entity that enjoyed losing money.
https://youtu.be/Y5YWV0wh3es?si=UcCcOAyHN1gbXv2u This interview is like watching a train wreck in slow motion. Jones should have stayed at home if he wants to have any public confidence in their forward bookings. The only saving grace is that the majority of their passengers likely don't watch BNN....
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