Search found 118 matches

by evanb
Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Last A340 operator
Replies: 56
Views: 10231

Re: Last A340 operatory

Lots depends on price of fuel, A340 look good as long as oil is at current levels. IF oil goes up a lot the A340 is Doomed. Look for many to get parked. Why is the A340 doomed if the oil price goes up ? The A340-300 has a very comparable fuel burn to a 777-200ER, at a lower monthly lease rate. They...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Airbus A330-200 Hot/High Performance SLC
Replies: 2
Views: 1222

Re: Airbus A330-200 Hot/High Performance SLC

4,200ft AMSL and 99 F will give most twins a problem.

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by evanb
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Last A340 operator
Replies: 56
Views: 10231

Re: Last A340 operator

4. -600: South African Airways (I could see them leasing in Iberia's A346s down the line for routes where a 242t A333 will not do). Why would SAA lease Iberia's A346s when they already have nine of their own, all around a similar age to Iberia's? There is talk of SAA downsizing the A340 fleet, none...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6229

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

Ive often wondered about the A332 on flights from PER to South Africa. Seems like it would now be much better suited than the 4 holer with a small diversion. It leads me to think that perhaps with QF's mini hub at PER there might be a case for 3-4pw to CPT. Its a similar range to SYD-PEK and CPT is...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6229

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

KarelXWB wrote:
SAA can always ask SQ how the A350 performs out of JNB.


No need to ask SQ, Airbus brought the A350 to JNB a while back. But no doubt, Airbus are also getting data from operators.

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6229

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

We pulled a A330-200 flight plan a couple of months ago on the JNB-PER sector. When compared to the A343 for the same day it routed us slightly north (39 deg S vs 41S) to keep us in the 240 min (beyond 180) rule. Flying time was 11min longer and burn was 5000kg less. Other than the 'hot and high' a...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6229

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

With the new EDTO rules, the A340 (or any other quad) basically has the same restrictions as any 240min ETOPS twin. The A350 (like SAA's A330's) has 240min (known as 'beyond 180min') ETOPS, so it wouldn't make ant difference at all. Another aspect is that ETOPS, or EDTO isn't a factor on the JNB-HK...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6229

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

It could basically be until end of life, as I have no idea who will finance new planes for them. If Air Belgium doesn't get started up, I could see the four late-2000s ex-Finnair A340s being leased by SAA from Airbus. That said, I'm surprised that there isn't a cheap A345 lease with Airbus for some...

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by evanb
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Heathrow Expansion Likely to be Approved
Replies: 78
Views: 9825

Re: Heathrow Expansion Likely to be Approved

BHXLOVER wrote:
Zac Goldsmith for example has just been re-elected.


He won by 45 votes. In 2015 he won by 23,015 votes. I'm not sure that he'll have the same opportunity and focus to undermine any Heathrow expansion vote.

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by evanb
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Heathrow Expansion Likely to be Approved
Replies: 78
Views: 9825

Re: Heathrow Expansion Likely to be Approved

MPs will likely be allowed a free vote. For all the Tory MPs that the government might lose in the vote they are also likely to gain a lot of Labour MPs. The Heathrow expansion has never been a particularly partisan issue. But yes, a weakened government is less likely to take risks, and they won't w...

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by evanb
Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

Haven't stuided bilateral agreement of them or other bilateral agreement, but in this case, excluding service beyond HK to one country does not seem reciprocicty to excluding service beyond ZA to all other countries... not to say service from HK to Mainland China is sort of cabotage. The point bein...

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by evanb
Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

If South Africa was not willing to renegotiate, it would not be part of any bilateral agreement. The lack of codeshare is also a sign of either a limited ASA or a punitive measure by the partner, which wants that market for itself. South Africa wanted to renegotiate and liberalize the Hong Kong-Sou...

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by evanb
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

The only relevant services are the ones that have two points outside Africa. Why so? I don't see why this is the case. For this case, we can consider KUL-JNB-CPT-EZE as only one point in Africa, since the airline was never able to sell seats between JNB and CPT. Another example was GRU-JNB-BKK-HKG....

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by evanb
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA's flights to the US
Replies: 13
Views: 4210

Re: SAA's flights to the US

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
does DL need to block as well? It seems the 77L is an amazing plane esp for a twin.


The 77L can have payload restrictions on JNB-ATL (westbound sector). The challenge with the 77L on the sector is that there is a speed restriction on the tyres which can limit the payload.

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by evanb
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA's flights to the US
Replies: 13
Views: 4210

Re: SAA's flights to the US

They do block seats, more often on the westbound sector, but the A340-600 has pretty exceptional hot and high payload performance, so it's not usually a large number of seats. The A346 is quite impressive in that regard. Joburg is 5500' and it can get off Rwy 03L at max structural (368t) up to 30de...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

grjplanes wrote:
JNB-LFW by Ethiopian isn't necessarily 5th freedom, as it is operated as ASKY (operated by ET aircraft)...not sure of the exact details, but guess it's rather on the SA-Togo bilateral.


Operated by an ET aircraft and with an ET code. Very much a 5th freedom. Marketed as a codeshare on AKSY.

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

Thanks for fact check.... I was talking about Yamoussoukro Decision, which was signed in 1990s, although it seems like not many countries actually implemented that... The recent call for an African open sky is actually just a call to ask those countries actually implement the decision if my memory ...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

You may want to revise a few of those routings. Most of them are not 5th freedom. Technically, some are and some are not, but again, it shows that South Africa is not as stingy on bilaterals as people on here seem to think - that is the point I'm making. Nobody can seem to provide any evidence that...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA's flights to the US
Replies: 13
Views: 4210

Re: SAA's flights to the US

4Y seat is certainly possible on this route as it often has payload restrictions. It's not unusual to see 16hrs plus on this sector, in which case not all the 317 seats can be used. They do block seats, more often on the westbound sector, but the A340-600 has pretty exceptional hot and high payload...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

Over the other thread I heard MH's CPT service does not work because of load restrictions put in place by SA govt? They've provided fifth freedoms on routings involving WDH-JNB-ACC, KGL-LUN-JNB, ADD-JNB-LFW, DOH-JNB-MPM, WDH-GBE-DUR, NBO-CPT-LVI and NBO-CPT-VFA in the last few years, and historical...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

If South Africa weren't so protective of SAA, an Asian carrier would be connecting CPT to South America if granted 5th freedom. They're not protective of fifth freedoms at all these days and have been making them available. The challenge is that no Asian airlines (except ME3) serve Cape Town non-st...

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by evanb
Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5220

Re: South American Service to CPT

I am surprised GRU-CPT or EZE-CPT do not exist. It is the best-situated airport to connect with South/East Africa. Perhaps they feel that JNB takes most of that traffic anyways? Cape Town just doesn't have the connecting options in terms of destinations and frequency that Johannesburg has, that sim...

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by evanb
Sat May 27, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL A332 3 Engine Incidences in 6 Days on Same Engine
Replies: 60
Views: 11768

Re: DL A332 3 Engine Incidences in 6 Days on Same Engine

The aircraft is 11 years old. It doesn't become a hanger queen overnight. And an issue on a single engine that might be 11 years old hardly qualifies it as a hanger queen.

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by evanb
Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indonesia refuses to approve SQ and LH JV, protecting Garuda
Replies: 5
Views: 2331

Re: Protectionism strikes again: Indonesia refuses to approve Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa JV, protecting Garuda

Singapore Airlines is the largest foreign carrier in Indonesia, and is often cited as the non official international airline for Indonesia. Quite disappointing seeing this protectionist stance from the authorities there. Garuda has become a proper international carrier with high standards and servi...

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by evanb
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lome-Jo'burg nonstop on Ethiopian!
Replies: 16
Views: 4483

Re: Lome-Jo'burg nonstop on Ethiopian!

Hopefully this drives down prices on SAA's flight to JFK. I'm pretty sure a three times weekly flight, connecting through a west African airport, is not going to drive down prices on JNB-JFK, given the premium that can be attracted for the non-stop and also considering the huge number of other one-...

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by evanb
Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: African Aviation Thread
Replies: 153
Views: 8862

Re: African Aviation Thread

Cunard wrote:
BA to Cape Town and Johannesburg


No BA A380 to CPT. LHR flights are B744 and LGW flights are B772.

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by evanb
Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airlink adds 11 ERJ-140s
Replies: 4
Views: 1117

Re: Airlink adds 11 ERJ-140s

I presume the ERJ-140 has better hot and high performance than the ERJ-145.

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by evanb
Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: easyJet to fall out of FTSE100 index. Risk of IAG takeover bid?
Replies: 13
Views: 3693

Re: easyJet to fall out of FTSE100 index. Risk of IAG takeover bid?

You say that but Lufthansa group are huge in Europe and looking at other opportunities so why can't IAG? Specifically, the UK authorities will be very concerned with concentration in the London market. They are likely to look at London as a whole, rather than the airports separately. The remedial a...

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by evanb
Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: easyJet to fall out of FTSE100 index. Risk of IAG takeover bid?
Replies: 13
Views: 3693

Re: easyJet to fall out of FTSE100 index. Risk of IAG takeover bid?

Could IAG submit a takeover bid for easyJet in the next couple of years? This would partly be a defensive move as easyJet has said it will start operations from Heathrow when a third runway opens which would put a lot of pressure on BA short-haul at LHR. If easyJet's UK operations are merged into B...

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by evanb
Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Mass Layoffs
Replies: 84
Views: 27209

Re: Emirates Mass Layoffs

Looking at the latest leasor quarterly reports, average EK daily utilisation was 11.5 to 13.5 hours, within the mid-range utilisation agreed with leasors. There is evidence to suggest that this is above average. There is nice data from the MIT Airline Data Project which estimates "Average Dail...

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by evanb
Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Mass Layoffs
Replies: 84
Views: 27209

Re: Emirates Mass Layoffs

Only $11B. To read regular posters here, I would have thought they received a lot more. My thoughts exactly, I read somewhere on the internets that it was even higher, and we all know what Winston Churchill once said, "if you read it on the internet it must be true", or was that Abraham L...

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by evanb
Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Mass Layoffs
Replies: 84
Views: 27209

Re: Emirates Mass Layoffs

there were also a rumor they had parked up to 19 A380s but were keeping it very quiet.....then after that they announced the A380 deferrals....so yes 1000 out of over 100k staff is not a huge deal...but all taken together could add up to EK experiencing some big issues It's pretty easy to verify if...

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by evanb
Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Interview with Amedeo's CEO Lapidus on A380
Replies: 36
Views: 6451

Re: Interview with Amedeo's CEO Lapidus on A380

Only way I could see the A380 being used is by a holiday operator like Thomas Cook or Thomson on the mass holiday routes like LGW to AGP or MAN to PMI or LGW to TFS but then they will be restricted to a limited number of routes and can those airports handle the aircraft. The likes of EZY or FR won'...

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by evanb
Fri Jan 06, 2017 7:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA v. Air New Zealand
Replies: 28
Views: 5465

Re: SAA v. Air New Zealand

While South Africa doesn't have a nice big market like Australia next door, it does have all of Southern Africa for regional flights. A330 or A340 between flights to LHR can fly to Lagos, Windok, Nairobi, Accra, and Zimbabwae. Maybe flying them of 5 hour African flights would be more profitable the...

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by evanb
Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA v. Air New Zealand
Replies: 28
Views: 5465

Re: SAA v. Air New Zealand

Consider the following: ME4 to NZ: Emirates DXB-AKL daily A380, DXB-MEL-AKL daily A380, DXB-BKK-SYD-AKL daily A380, DXB-SYD-CHC daily A380 Qatar DOH-AKL (begins Feb) Etihad: none Turkish: none ME4 to RSA: Emirates: DXB-JNB 3x daily B77W & daily A380, DXB-CPT 3x daily B77W, DXB-DUR daily B77W Qat...

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by evanb
Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are Virgin Atlantics A330's useless?
Replies: 70
Views: 19713

Re: Are Virgin Atlantics A330's useless?

So, the 787 has a 2,000kg trip fuel advantage (6-7%) and 13 minutes time advantage (3%). Is that much, or little? Hard to say, as we don't know other costs involved. However, I think the increased fuel burn of the A333 could be easily offset by lower lease rates... Very interesting. The most recent...

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by evanb
Sun Dec 18, 2016 8:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates JNB Ops
Replies: 16
Views: 3207

Re: Emirates JNB Ops

Emirates have always favored frequency to South Africa. They have added a fourth frequency to Johannesburg and a third frequency to Cape Town in the last few years. As already mentioned, they have upgauged some Johannesburg flights to A380 during high-season. They are likely caped out with frequency...

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by evanb
Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Tanzania confirms order for 1 787-8
Replies: 32
Views: 6860

Re: Air Tanzania confirms order for 1 787-8

I can't see this ending well! It's impossible to make long haul working without any economies of scale and without any feed. One cannot simply rely on O&D traffic unless the routes are incredibly high yielding, which DAR will certainly not provide. I can't see anyone willing to provide feed on ...

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by evanb
Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 2 BA A380s at JNB
Replies: 8
Views: 2767

Re: 2 BA A380s at JNB

Wanting to have night flights both directions also makes sense. But, it seems you could still satisfy that preference and have a bigger gap between trips to better accommodate various connections. I think that it's the connections that are the most important factor in determine the times. JNB and L...

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by evanb
Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Tanzania confirms order for 1 787-8
Replies: 32
Views: 6860

Re: Air Tanzania confirms order for 1 787-8

Not every airline in the world has to be huge, or have an obvious viable O/D market. I'm sure the people in Tanzania have done their research and have come to the conclusion that the airline has a good future if managed correctly. They are giving that management the tools they require to set that p...

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by evanb
Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Tanzania confirms order for 1 787-8
Replies: 32
Views: 6860

Re: Air Tanzania confirms order for 1 787-8

I can't see this ending well! It's impossible to make long haul working without any economies of scale and without any feed. One cannot simply rely on O&D traffic unless the routes are incredibly high yielding, which DAR will certainly not provide. I can't see anyone willing to provide feed on t...

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by evanb
Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: RwandAir plans US debut
Replies: 9
Views: 3063

Re: RwandAir plans US debut

It would be surprising for a small country like Rwanda to have a direct link to the U.S. while a major African nation like Kenya doesn't have one (although security concerns seem to be the main reason for that)... Is there a large Rwandan diaspora in New York, or is this just a prestige route they ...

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by evanb
Mon Dec 05, 2016 9:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Air Namibia Return To The UK?
Replies: 11
Views: 2097

Re: Will Air Namibia Return To The UK?

It's been a few years since Air Namibia "suspended" its service between WDH and LGW. With the growing popularity of Namibia as a holiday destination and the close ties that exist between the UK and Namibia, does anyone think the service may get reinstated at some point? I'm not sure what ...

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by evanb
Sun Nov 27, 2016 9:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will BA ever return to HRE?
Replies: 19
Views: 4679

Re: Will BA ever return to HRE?

I'm not so sure the infrastructure is in as poor condition as you state. While I was there (in 2011), I experienced a reliable electric grid, fully functional traffic signaling devices on the streets, well paved good roads for the most part. I can't speak to the condition of the sewer and municipal...

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by evanb
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will BA ever return to HRE?
Replies: 19
Views: 4679

Re: Will BA ever return to HRE?

Siren wrote:
if Mugabe goes, all of this should recover fairly quickly assuming somebody puts reasonable policies in place instead.


The degradation of the infrastructure over the last decade is so severe that it'll take years to recover.

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by evanb
Thu Nov 24, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will BA ever return to HRE?
Replies: 19
Views: 4679

Re: Will BA ever return to HRE?

I think BA would be happy to return to a country that is far more approachable about a myriad of operations ideals. I also think current security gaps need to be addressed. If BA were to return they'd have crew over nighting & BA needs to know their crews will remain safe. The Sale of tickets o...

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by evanb
Thu Nov 24, 2016 6:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will BA ever return to HRE?
Replies: 19
Views: 4679

Re: Will BA ever return to HRE?

Given BA's strategy in Africa in recent years I would think it's unlikely under any circumstances. They have dropped several other destinations in Africa including GBE, LLW, WDH, KAN, DUR, KRT, DAR, EBB and LUN. Their African strategy has changed over the years and focusses on higher capacity to a s...

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by evanb
Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA announces A330-300 service to IAD
Replies: 50
Views: 12424

Re: SAA announces A330-300 service to IAD

So in the JNB-Europe market, all the premium traffic originates in Europe? I didn't know that. No, not at all, but there is clearly a greater business case to get into Europe early that leaving JNB later. Most likely because of the greater variety of connections on the European end, and a much lett...

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by evanb
Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Opinion: Low oil prices is hitting ME carriers
Replies: 23
Views: 4749

Re: Opinion: Low oil prices is hitting ME carriers

When only one of the parties is benefitting from the bilaterals, they are granted, not negotiated. I really wonder why countries are entering into bilaterals with the UAE. There is barely any merit for them to do so. It does make a difference to be separate airlines as they can give the impression ...

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by evanb
Mon Oct 24, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA announces A330-300 service to IAD
Replies: 50
Views: 12424

Re: SAA announces A330-300 service to IAD

Yes, that would make sense for Lufthansa, but for SAA you would think that they want to leave as late as possible so that premium customers have the opportunity for a full day of work in JNB and to maximize connectivity at JNB. The market is the same, the passengers are the same, why would SA give ...

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