Search found 307 matches

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by evanb
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DY shifts 6 787-9s to lessor
Replies: 8
Views: 3415

Re: DY shifts 6 787-9s to lessor

It would certainly free up some cash since BOC are likely reimbursing Norwegian for the pre-delivery deposits.

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by evanb
Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: China—Africa Connectivity Thread
Replies: 18
Views: 1912

Re: China—Africa Connectivity Thread

c933103 wrote:
What's the tie between CMN and China?


Other than AT's excellent west African network, probably not much specifically.

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by evanb
Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Europe to Africa discussion
Replies: 73
Views: 6013

Re: Europe to Africa discussion

I agree that IAG is not utilizing the potential of MAD and IB to be an Africa hub. What are they waiting for? From MAD, IB or IB express can cover all of West Africa with A319/A320CEO. In the near future, with NEO's, let alone A321NEOLR's, they could cover most of the continent. Where others have t...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas to start PER-JNB from 7 December 2018
Replies: 17
Views: 6079

Re: Qantas to start PER-JNB from 7 December 2018

Different times to SA, wonder which is preferred by the market. Do kinda feel sorry for SA. I heard PER was one of their few profitable routes. Similar times on the JNB-PER sector, but very different on the PER-JNB sector. The current SYD-JNB arrives at JNB at 17:00 which gives just enough time for...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: China—Africa Connectivity Thread
Replies: 18
Views: 1912

Re: China—Africa Connectivity Thread

Any indication how the Air China PEK-JNB service is performing, with it being quite a long 77W flight I was wondering if this route won't perhaps be better served with their 787 aircraft with increased frequency rather. I would have thought the same thing. While both the B77W and B789 would have si...

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by evanb
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Europe to Africa discussion
Replies: 73
Views: 6013

Re: Europe to Africa discussion

Using Bangui, Central African Republic as an example which has an AF flight to CDG, there are many cultural and historic links between the CAR and France. Also, to have a direct link to the developed world is of great economic importance to a country which is one of the world's poorest nations. Als...

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by evanb
Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Europe to Africa discussion
Replies: 73
Views: 6013

Re: Europe to Africa discussion

The Europe to Africa aviation market has always intrigued me... there aren't many routes in the world which have more importance than many Europe to Africa routes. Well all present-day African states, with the exception of Ethiopia and maybe Liberia (this one is more complicated), were colonized by...

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by evanb
Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

Go back and check how many seats were on those 747s. Their ULH 744s had less than 330, which isn't all that much more capacity than the likes of DL's A359s, and less than many carriers' 777s. The original configuration on the 8x SAA B744s: ZS-SAV/W/X/Y 14/66/263=343 ZS-SAK/Z 14/60/288=362 ZS-SAT/U ...

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by evanb
Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

But surely the 778 could do the opposite by trading fuel for payload. It's range is wayyyy more than what the route requires (I know range means nothing). The plane can do 8,700nm on a route that is 7,000. 1,700nm is a big difference (weight of fuel wise). Could it still not do a full load? Yeah, t...

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by evanb
Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Airlines to ATL?
Replies: 57
Views: 5014

Re: New Airlines to ATL?

The average profit margin across the seven major carriers in the United States in 2017 was what... 7% ? Is that printing money? It's a pitiful number compared to most industries who are hardly ever accused of printing money to any kind of detriment to the consumer. While profit margins might be a g...

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by evanb
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Airlines to ATL?
Replies: 57
Views: 5014

Re: New Airlines to ATL?

catiii wrote:
You left out B6, who now flies to FLL, MCO, JFK, and BOS from ATL.


Kinda, the OP was about ULCCs. Without being too pedantic about definitions, I don't think B6 would be a ULCC, at least they wouldn't want to be seen as one.

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by evanb
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

The simple fact remains that the exact value of commonality relative to other factors isn't known (for them or anyone else), but is often WILDLY overstated on this forum, as evidenced by how frequently airlines defy that concept with their purchases. I just gave you one. Particularly considering th...

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by evanb
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

PER has started seeing occasional A332's of recent so seemingly no issues with a quad operating this service, which I was initially surprised about. MK have flown their 2 A332's here since delivery over 10years ago without issue. They tried the A332 on a few frequencies and then went back to the A3...

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by evanb
Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

Does SAA need to fly to Perth, Hong Kong and JFK with A340's ? Since SAA bleeds tons of red ink it seems these long haul A340 flights are all losers. Maybe the restrictions twin engine planes would impose on SAA are good limitations. SAA needs to rely more on its Star Alliance partners or change al...

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by evanb
Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

Sure, but again, if the savings from commonality = X, but the combination of savings or revenue derived from a mixed fleet = X+N, then you're LOSING money by choosing commonality over the optimum revenue/savings. Historically, this tends to be far more applicable to a longhaul fleet (e.g. VS) than ...

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by evanb
Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

Sure there are some cockpit and software-enabled handling similarities, but one has to realize that these families will have: Different engines, different gear, different brakes, different parts, different spares, different flight characteristics, (somewhat) different layout, etc etc etc. People ha...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Airlines to ATL?
Replies: 57
Views: 5014

Re: New Airlines to ATL?

Wondering what the thoughts are about ATL getting new international service? Delta has quite the grip here, and the airport could use more competition on routes. I'd assumed we'd get more if Amazon chose here, but why no ULCCs? Both Frontier and Spirit have substantial operations in Atlanta. Which ...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

As for NB replacement when it does eventually happen, I know they seem to be leaning more and more towards Airbus but I would like them to consider the 737 Max 8. I still hate typing that name... what are the IATA/ICAO codes for the Max family? I left out in my previous post, the first priority in ...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

If they can get new aircraft on lease within the next 2 to 4 years, then maybe the A330neo is best option, as stated by some here already, operating and size fitting for the current need...perhaps a mix of A338 and A339 (say 10 of each?) and options for more for later if things looks to be improvin...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

I'm trying to figure out your assertion for the 789 out of JNB. Looking at the performance charts, high thrust engines for the 788 will barely take a hit in performance. I use page 3-10 of the following link. Using page 3-14, a hot day is going to be an issue for the 789. :( So a high thrust varian...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

I can't imagine the LR would be much better, unless Airbus gave it a bigger wing, which they did not. The MAX7 would be a sound investment for their shorthaul fleet, with great field performance and range longer than their current 738s. This is based on the assumption that they are having problems ...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

The bonds are *barely* investment grade. The South African government had better count their pennies for the spread between junk and investment grade is growing. Indeed they are not well rated, but the argument was that they have been having a difficult time selling debt on the market. They have no...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

Would they give up their intermediate stop in ACC to IAD if they could operate nonstop efficiently? Are they selling ACC-IAD and making money, or is it more of a technical stop? Six of one, half a dozen of the other. The ACC-IAD-ACC sector is performing very well for SAA. The DKR-IAD-DKR sector is ...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

The SA government was having a hard time recently selling debt on the markets don't think they have the money to buy new aircraft, would have to be a lease. No matter what good management they may find in the world to run the company they can not stop themselves from interfering, they are like crac...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

JNB-JFK/IAD nonstop both ways only B778 and A359LR can perform with a full payload. Neither one can come anywhere close to doing so on a full payload, most notably the A359ULR, whose entire point is swapping payload for fuel. Entirely true, even many quads take penalties out of JNB at times. The A3...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

Given their financial situation, how are they going to pay for a new fleet? Is the S.A. government going to bail them out yet again? They have no option but to get rid of the fuel guzzlers and revamp their management and workers. The market is there its huge and they can make profit with proper man...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

Would the B789 have the legs from JNB to JFK, taking into account the altitude etc of JNB? I think SAA would be fine with just the 787. The 777 and A350 would be too much aircraft. I was also wondering whether the A321LR might be a great aircraft for intra Africa routes that may not be that busy. F...

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by evanb
Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?
Replies: 51
Views: 6400

Re: Is new SAA fleet announcement imminent?

EvanWSFO wrote:
Given their financial situation, how are they going to pay for a new fleet? Is the S.A. government going to bail them out yet again?


Same way they pay for a most of their aircraft, through operating leases.

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by evanb
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK reducing, not adding in U.S.?
Replies: 129
Views: 15125

Re: EK reducing, not adding in U.S.?

I think EK screwed up BOS. Best would have been to keep every other station capacity for O&D (including New York area) and consolidate all B6 connecting passengers thru BOS. It is probably the easiest airport to connect. I was thinking it could go up to 5xA380s. Upgauging willy nilly everywhere...

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by evanb
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA bailed out by government again
Replies: 171
Views: 28121

Re: SAA bailed out by government again

A340 is least of SAA's problem, bear that in mind much of SAA's widebody spend much of daytime sitting in Europe and Hong Kong whilst away from base and does the same when returned to JNB, it may fly 10-11 hours per day, the fuel saved not enough to offset the much higher lease rate for A330 (A340 ...

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by evanb
Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK reducing, not adding in U.S.?
Replies: 129
Views: 15125

Re: EK reducing, not adding in U.S.?

So you have answered you own question EK is not doing very well in BOS. Students are exactly flush with cash to purchase perineum cabin fares. Massachusetts is the 6th richest state in the US by median household income. If Massachusetts isn't flush with cash to purchase premium fares then almost no...

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by evanb
Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK reducing, not adding in U.S.?
Replies: 129
Views: 15125

Re: EK reducing, not adding in U.S.?

Bizarre narrative 1: EK are flooding the US and other markets with cheap seats

Bizarre narrative 2: EK reducing capacity to match demand, seasonality and changing market dynamics means they are on death's door

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by evanb
Sun Apr 01, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: If the US3 envy Gulf subsidies, why don't they just get their own?
Replies: 27
Views: 3777

Re: If the US3 envy Gulf subsidies, why don't they just get their own?

Considering the America first climate in the US, why don't the US3 ask for some form of subsidy to help them better compete with the ME3 if that is their beef with the Gulf carriers? It's not the Gulf states' fault for wanting to invest in their aviation industry even if the US doesn't. If its such...

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by evanb
Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian profit warning, try to raise equity
Replies: 125
Views: 17805

Re: Norwegian profit warning, try to raise equity

Basically. I actually think the Norwegian saga proves low cost long haul IS viable, just that they executed it very poorly. How so? They proved they can fill a long haul aircraft with low fares, but how have they proved they can substantially lower the unit cost to be covered by the lower unit reve...

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by evanb
Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.
Replies: 33
Views: 5907

Re: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.

usxguy wrote:
What does the current schedule look like between London and Joburg?


Existing flight:

LHR JNB 18:55 07:50+1
JNB LHR 21:10 06:20+1

New flight:

LHR JNB 16:45 05:40+1
JNB LHR 22:20 07:30+1

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by evanb
Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.
Replies: 33
Views: 5907

Re: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.

Cunard wrote:
VS already partner with SAA in South Africa including CPT and DUR.


Partnership is probably pushing it. No codeshare. Just interline and FF reciprocity.

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by evanb
Fri Mar 16, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.
Replies: 33
Views: 5907

Re: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.

I'm not so sure. That's a pretty long LHR layover for Virgin/Delta arrivals (not that arriving to JNB even earlier would be a boon). Further, I don't think Delta wants to mess with the success of its own ATL-JNB flight. It's a 2 hour layover for VS flight from LAX, 2.5 hour from SFO, some others a ...

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by evanb
Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.
Replies: 33
Views: 5907

Re: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.

TC957 wrote:
LHR - JNB 1645 / 0540+1
JNB - LHR 2220 / 0730+1


Very early departure from LHR. Must be looking to pick up traffic from North America.

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by evanb
Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.
Replies: 33
Views: 5907

Re: VS to go double daily LHR-JNB W18/19.

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
I think it's excellent, it's a route with too much demand, I do not know how SAA can reduce this route


Well SAA don't have access to TAJV traffic via LHR, VS and BA do.

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by evanb
Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Johannesburg Gates
Replies: 5
Views: 1251

Re: Johannesburg Gates

There are approximately 15 contact stands for international gates all of which can take widebodies. There are approximately 12 contact stands for domesitc gates, a handful of which can take widebodies but rarely and 8 which can only take narrowbodies. I say approximately, since there are movable bar...

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by evanb
Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How to Revive Airline Competition
Replies: 81
Views: 5893

Re: How to Revive Airline Competition

Would you permit Delta and Southwest to merge? Or any airline merger that included the US4? I think it's a straw man, but probably not. Given the rising margins & return on assets of all US3 at the moment, I wouldn't permit any merger involving a US3 (possibly with the exception of a merger inv...

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by evanb
Sat Mar 03, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How to Revive Airline Competition
Replies: 81
Views: 5893

Re: How to Revive Airline Competition

In 2017, on an income statement/accrual accounting basis, AA generated a net margin of 4.5%, United generated a net margin of 5.6%, and Delta generated a net margin of 8.7%. I'm still waiting for a single cogent argument - just one! - as to why any one of those numbers is in any way excessive or un...

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by evanb
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth
Replies: 120
Views: 15604

Re: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth

They won't make money flying UK-Australia but they'll certainly lose a lot less than flying South America-Asia. Probably correct, but who would want to take on the Emirates juggernaut on UK-AUS? You can't beat the CASM on those highly utilized A380s! I kinda want to dare Norwegian to start a Europe...

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by evanb
Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA and QF re-file for Joint Venture
Replies: 57
Views: 8125

Re: AA and QF re-file for Joint Venture

I do love how the US3 work. They push hard against the ME3 open skies access to the US, but then get government protection to create cartels.

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by evanb
Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth
Replies: 120
Views: 15604

Re: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth

Norwegian flies many very well served city pairs like London-New York & Los Angeles, they're a low cost carrier unlike most airlines flying long haul, also Brisbane will soon become the only major Australian city without a direct flight to the UK. I think the risk of flying UK-Australia is lowe...

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by evanb
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth
Replies: 120
Views: 15604

Re: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth

With the exception of Oceania for now, which despite being an important market, is home to just a few dozen millions of people, the same advantage is shared by all European carriers. Most of Oceania's population is within non-stop reach of Dubai and Doha, not for Istanbul, but they've made up for i...

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by evanb
Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth
Replies: 120
Views: 15604

Re: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth

High risk yields high reward. The surprise of a lot of people here really goes to show how jaded we've become with the status quo in aviation. The rise of DY is unlike anything we've seen since Emirates ordered 100 A380's, which people at the time thought was a crazy idea that would never work. Of ...

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by evanb
Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth
Replies: 120
Views: 15604

Re: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth

Not sure what you're counting here, but assuming SIN as the destination (as mentioned); here are the numbers (in statute miles) EZE-SIN 9871 miles EZE-PER-SIN 10,246 mi (+3.8%) EZE-CPT-SIN 10,298 mi (+4.3%) EZE-DUR-SIN 10,322 mi (+4.6%) EZE-MPM-SIN 10,401 mi (+5.4%) EZE-JNB-SIN 10,433 mi (+5.7%) EZ...

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by evanb
Mon Feb 26, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth
Replies: 120
Views: 15604

Re: Norwegian planning Buenos Aires to Asia flights via Perth

One thing that can be said about Norwegian's long haul operation is that most of the original routes were big transatlantic markets where fares were relatively high due to the JV cartels. Thus, even if they didn't have a particuarly substantial cost savings compared to the incumbents they could stil...

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by evanb
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines
Replies: 29
Views: 4862

Re: Growth and future of Ethiopian airlines

I would not make such assumptions. The daytime LHR flights out of ADD still have feeds from Nairobi, Entebbe, Dar es Salaam, Johannesburg, Lusaka and Harare which form well established Ethiopian destinations and have historical ties to the UK. Those overnight African flights into ADD do see healthy...

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