Search found 139 matches

by evanb
Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: IAG's plans for Aer Lingus
Replies: 20
Views: 5015

Re: IAG's plans for Aer Lingus

EI will provide BA access to a large number of LHR slots.

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by evanb
Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Two South Africa bound flights from LHR diverted
Replies: 20
Views: 7059

Re: Two South Africa bound flights from LHR diverted

There are five daily JNB-LHR (2x BA, 2x SA, 1x VS), and one daily CPT-LHR which increases up to three daily in peak season (all BA).

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by evanb
Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First Airbus A380 parked amid search for new operator
Replies: 96
Views: 19354

Re: First Airbus A380 parked amid search for new operator

The real gauntlet will be when the later builds start to become available. As an early bird that essentially had to be rewired by hand 9V-SKA doesn't really stand a great chance of avoiding the scrapper. Agreed. It was the 5th A380 off the production line (two prototypes and two production models b...

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by evanb
Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: African Aviation Thread
Replies: 171
Views: 11940

Re: African Aviation Thread

That also tells me that Ethiopian, unlike a lot of African carriers, really seeks profitability, although I do feel that ET has too many wide-body planes when much of their network could be serviced with narrow-body planes. The A321neo would be perfect for their African network and maybe to India a...

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by evanb
Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: African Aviation Thread
Replies: 171
Views: 11940

Re: African Aviation Thread

Ethiopian is placing its first 787-9 on flights to Mumbai. Mumbai will be served twice a day with 77L + 789 When are ET expecting the 789? Do you know the seat configuration? I see 3-3-3 in economy with a total 287 seats. I see 2-3-2 in business with a total 28 seats Total is 315 seats This compare...

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by evanb
Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL adds JFK - LOS
Replies: 71
Views: 11406

Re: DL adds JFK - LOS

While all of that might be true it does appear as if the complaint isn't just from one passenger and from a few occasions when there was bad luck. There seems to be a pattern in this. Those complaining seem to be seasoned travelers as well who detect a difference in how DL treats LOS compared to ot...

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by evanb
Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL adds JFK - LOS
Replies: 71
Views: 11406

Re: DL adds JFK - LOS

I would imagine most people flying to Africa these days are flying me3. Much more options than direct. I'm sure it's not "most people", but I seem to remember reading on these fora a while back that TK is the single airline carrying the most passengers to and from Africa. Not necessarily ...

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by evanb
Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL adds JFK - LOS
Replies: 71
Views: 11406

Re: DL adds JFK - LOS

Good to see one US carrier pursuing opportunities in Africa. Any chance DL will give Luanda and the other routes they planned another chance? Africa has seen steady economic growth these past few years and it seems like it could support more service to the U.S. A bit more established Economy but, A...

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by evanb
Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian going nonstop to Sao Paulo again
Replies: 30
Views: 4820

Re: Ethiopian going nonstop to Sao Paulo again

Consider though that there is probably a bigger O&D market between Brazil and UAE than what there is between Brazil and Ethiopia...so while there is a big margin of people getting off in DXB, there is probably not so many getting off in ADD, and thus continuing onwards. Is there perhaps also st...

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by evanb
Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US
Replies: 76
Views: 16256

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

AirAfreak wrote:
Does TG have traffic rights via HKG to USA/Canada?

Would it be reasonable for TG to explore the idea of operating BKK-LAX/SFO/SEA/YVR/YYZ/JFK/EWR or ORD via HKG?


Yes, the bilateral agreements allows it.

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by evanb
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US
Replies: 76
Views: 16256

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

There problem there is that I DID read what you said. And your statements were implicitly inconsistent, which is why I've spent this time trying to figure out what you're even trying to get at, in the first place. For example: I never made any other claim that they could sustain a US route profitab...

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by evanb
Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian retrofitting its B763 Business class with lie flat seats
Replies: 25
Views: 4107

Re: Ethiopian retrofitting its B763 Business class with lie flat seats

How is the arrangement between Ethiopian Airlines and Malawian Airlines working out! At the beginning of this arrangement it was stated that Malawian Airlines may eventually get a couple of wide bodies from Ethiopian Airlines with the Boeing 763 being the obvious candidate. If the ET Boeing 763 are...

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by evanb
Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US
Replies: 76
Views: 16256

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Did you even read this? It in itself contradicts what you're trying to say: five seconds + a calculator will tell you that. Just as an example, TG with a CASM of 8.5cents per seat mile on an 8300mi route to LAX, isn't going to come anywhere near as low of a cost as OZ with a 10.5cent CASM on a 6000...

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by evanb
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Norwegian AIr Argentina: final list of routes authority requested
Replies: 28
Views: 7110

Re: Norwegian AIr Argentina: final list of routes authority requested

Most likely applying for everything where there are unused frequencies as per bilateral agreements, hence the odd numbers, e.g. Cape Town x3 and Johannesburg x2, probably because the bilateral allows for 5 total per week.

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by evanb
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US
Replies: 76
Views: 16256

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Not enough to counteract that , and I would challenge you to show the slightest bit of empirical evidence to that effect. CAPA did an extensive analysis of costs for Asian airlines a few years ago. I don't believe much has changed since then. https://centreforaviation.com/insights/analysis/asian-ai...

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by evanb
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US
Replies: 76
Views: 16256

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Any minute advantage in static costs is going to quickly be overwhelmed by the amount of fuel required to fly a nearly 3000mi longer distance, if nonstop. Should they 1stop, then they're up against the power of the JVs and the dual-hub situations. Also, North America-Asia JVs are just simply not ne...

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by evanb
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US
Replies: 76
Views: 16256

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Any minute advantage in static costs is going to quickly be overwhelmed by the amount of fuel required to fly a nearly 3000mi longer distance, if nonstop. Should they 1stop, then they're up against the power of the JVs and the dual-hub situations. You'll find there unit cost advantages over NH, JL,...

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by evanb
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US
Replies: 76
Views: 16256

Re: Rumor: Thai Airways (TG) returning to the US

Fares might not support it, but Thai probably have lower unit costs than any other Asian airlines flying to mainland USA, certainly lower than NH, JL, KE, OZ, SQ and CX and more similar to CA, CZ, etc. So they need not attract the same yields as other players to make it work. You're also all assumin...

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by evanb
Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BA Terminal 5 and OW Partners
Replies: 33
Views: 4984

Re: BA Terminal 5 and OW Partners

BrianDromey wrote:
I believe another restriction is that T5 has been set up to be 100% containerised, so non-container equipped A32x and all 737s would be a problem for T5.


BA used chartered B737s from Jettime at T5 in the last year which required non-containerized baggage.,

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by evanb
Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is South African or Kenyan at ORD possible
Replies: 34
Views: 3529

Re: Is South African or Kenyan at ORD possible

In the past, yes. I doubt nonstop though as to JFK is 6935 nmi nonstop, close to the limit of an A340-600 with the needed reserves. To ATL is 7342 nmi nonstop, and Delta deploys a B77L on that route. SA operated JNB-ATL-JNB non-stop with an A340-600 for several years before they joined Star Allianc...

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by evanb
Sat Aug 05, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA bailed out by government again
Replies: 90
Views: 14093

Re: SAA bailed out by government again

a recent article I've just published on how to help fix South African Airways can be read here...its very long and offers decent insight. Please do read it and let me know your constructive feedback...thanks https://airline-news.blogspot.com/2017/08/how-to-fix-south-african-airways.html You make th...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Last A340 operator
Replies: 56
Views: 10504

Re: Last A340 operatory

Lots depends on price of fuel, A340 look good as long as oil is at current levels. IF oil goes up a lot the A340 is Doomed. Look for many to get parked. Why is the A340 doomed if the oil price goes up ? The A340-300 has a very comparable fuel burn to a 777-200ER, at a lower monthly lease rate. They...

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by evanb
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Airbus A330-200 Hot/High Performance SLC
Replies: 2
Views: 1302

Re: Airbus A330-200 Hot/High Performance SLC

4,200ft AMSL and 99 F will give most twins a problem.

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by evanb
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Last A340 operator
Replies: 56
Views: 10504

Re: Last A340 operator

4. -600: South African Airways (I could see them leasing in Iberia's A346s down the line for routes where a 242t A333 will not do). Why would SAA lease Iberia's A346s when they already have nine of their own, all around a similar age to Iberia's? There is talk of SAA downsizing the A340 fleet, none...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6385

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

Ive often wondered about the A332 on flights from PER to South Africa. Seems like it would now be much better suited than the 4 holer with a small diversion. It leads me to think that perhaps with QF's mini hub at PER there might be a case for 3-4pw to CPT. Its a similar range to SYD-PEK and CPT is...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6385

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

KarelXWB wrote:
SAA can always ask SQ how the A350 performs out of JNB.


No need to ask SQ, Airbus brought the A350 to JNB a while back. But no doubt, Airbus are also getting data from operators.

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6385

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

We pulled a A330-200 flight plan a couple of months ago on the JNB-PER sector. When compared to the A343 for the same day it routed us slightly north (39 deg S vs 41S) to keep us in the 240 min (beyond 180) rule. Flying time was 11min longer and burn was 5000kg less. Other than the 'hot and high' a...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6385

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

With the new EDTO rules, the A340 (or any other quad) basically has the same restrictions as any 240min ETOPS twin. The A350 (like SAA's A330's) has 240min (known as 'beyond 180min') ETOPS, so it wouldn't make ant difference at all. Another aspect is that ETOPS, or EDTO isn't a factor on the JNB-HK...

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by evanb
Tue Jul 11, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of SAA's A340's?
Replies: 29
Views: 6385

Re: Future of SAA's A340's?

It could basically be until end of life, as I have no idea who will finance new planes for them. If Air Belgium doesn't get started up, I could see the four late-2000s ex-Finnair A340s being leased by SAA from Airbus. That said, I'm surprised that there isn't a cheap A345 lease with Airbus for some...

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by evanb
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Heathrow Expansion Likely to be Approved
Replies: 78
Views: 10012

Re: Heathrow Expansion Likely to be Approved

BHXLOVER wrote:
Zac Goldsmith for example has just been re-elected.


He won by 45 votes. In 2015 he won by 23,015 votes. I'm not sure that he'll have the same opportunity and focus to undermine any Heathrow expansion vote.

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by evanb
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Heathrow Expansion Likely to be Approved
Replies: 78
Views: 10012

Re: Heathrow Expansion Likely to be Approved

MPs will likely be allowed a free vote. For all the Tory MPs that the government might lose in the vote they are also likely to gain a lot of Labour MPs. The Heathrow expansion has never been a particularly partisan issue. But yes, a weakened government is less likely to take risks, and they won't w...

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by evanb
Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

Haven't stuided bilateral agreement of them or other bilateral agreement, but in this case, excluding service beyond HK to one country does not seem reciprocicty to excluding service beyond ZA to all other countries... not to say service from HK to Mainland China is sort of cabotage. The point bein...

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by evanb
Wed Jun 07, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

If South Africa was not willing to renegotiate, it would not be part of any bilateral agreement. The lack of codeshare is also a sign of either a limited ASA or a punitive measure by the partner, which wants that market for itself. South Africa wanted to renegotiate and liberalize the Hong Kong-Sou...

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by evanb
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

The only relevant services are the ones that have two points outside Africa. Why so? I don't see why this is the case. For this case, we can consider KUL-JNB-CPT-EZE as only one point in Africa, since the airline was never able to sell seats between JNB and CPT. Another example was GRU-JNB-BKK-HKG....

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by evanb
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA's flights to the US
Replies: 13
Views: 4275

Re: SAA's flights to the US

DaufuskieGuy wrote:
does DL need to block as well? It seems the 77L is an amazing plane esp for a twin.


The 77L can have payload restrictions on JNB-ATL (westbound sector). The challenge with the 77L on the sector is that there is a speed restriction on the tyres which can limit the payload.

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by evanb
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA's flights to the US
Replies: 13
Views: 4275

Re: SAA's flights to the US

They do block seats, more often on the westbound sector, but the A340-600 has pretty exceptional hot and high payload performance, so it's not usually a large number of seats. The A346 is quite impressive in that regard. Joburg is 5500' and it can get off Rwy 03L at max structural (368t) up to 30de...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

grjplanes wrote:
JNB-LFW by Ethiopian isn't necessarily 5th freedom, as it is operated as ASKY (operated by ET aircraft)...not sure of the exact details, but guess it's rather on the SA-Togo bilateral.


Operated by an ET aircraft and with an ET code. Very much a 5th freedom. Marketed as a codeshare on AKSY.

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

Thanks for fact check.... I was talking about Yamoussoukro Decision, which was signed in 1990s, although it seems like not many countries actually implemented that... The recent call for an African open sky is actually just a call to ask those countries actually implement the decision if my memory ...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

You may want to revise a few of those routings. Most of them are not 5th freedom. Technically, some are and some are not, but again, it shows that South Africa is not as stingy on bilaterals as people on here seem to think - that is the point I'm making. Nobody can seem to provide any evidence that...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SAA's flights to the US
Replies: 13
Views: 4275

Re: SAA's flights to the US

4Y seat is certainly possible on this route as it often has payload restrictions. It's not unusual to see 16hrs plus on this sector, in which case not all the 317 seats can be used. They do block seats, more often on the westbound sector, but the A340-600 has pretty exceptional hot and high payload...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

Over the other thread I heard MH's CPT service does not work because of load restrictions put in place by SA govt? They've provided fifth freedoms on routings involving WDH-JNB-ACC, KGL-LUN-JNB, ADD-JNB-LFW, DOH-JNB-MPM, WDH-GBE-DUR, NBO-CPT-LVI and NBO-CPT-VFA in the last few years, and historical...

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by evanb
Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

If South Africa weren't so protective of SAA, an Asian carrier would be connecting CPT to South America if granted 5th freedom. They're not protective of fifth freedoms at all these days and have been making them available. The challenge is that no Asian airlines (except ME3) serve Cape Town non-st...

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by evanb
Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: South American Service to CPT
Replies: 63
Views: 5355

Re: South American Service to CPT

I am surprised GRU-CPT or EZE-CPT do not exist. It is the best-situated airport to connect with South/East Africa. Perhaps they feel that JNB takes most of that traffic anyways? Cape Town just doesn't have the connecting options in terms of destinations and frequency that Johannesburg has, that sim...

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by evanb
Sat May 27, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL A332 3 Engine Incidences in 6 Days on Same Engine
Replies: 60
Views: 11999

Re: DL A332 3 Engine Incidences in 6 Days on Same Engine

The aircraft is 11 years old. It doesn't become a hanger queen overnight. And an issue on a single engine that might be 11 years old hardly qualifies it as a hanger queen.

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by evanb
Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Indonesia refuses to approve SQ and LH JV, protecting Garuda
Replies: 5
Views: 2392

Re: Protectionism strikes again: Indonesia refuses to approve Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa JV, protecting Garuda

Singapore Airlines is the largest foreign carrier in Indonesia, and is often cited as the non official international airline for Indonesia. Quite disappointing seeing this protectionist stance from the authorities there. Garuda has become a proper international carrier with high standards and servi...

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by evanb
Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lome-Jo'burg nonstop on Ethiopian!
Replies: 16
Views: 4566

Re: Lome-Jo'burg nonstop on Ethiopian!

Hopefully this drives down prices on SAA's flight to JFK. I'm pretty sure a three times weekly flight, connecting through a west African airport, is not going to drive down prices on JNB-JFK, given the premium that can be attracted for the non-stop and also considering the huge number of other one-...

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by evanb
Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: African Aviation Thread
Replies: 171
Views: 11940

Re: African Aviation Thread

Cunard wrote:
BA to Cape Town and Johannesburg


No BA A380 to CPT. LHR flights are B744 and LGW flights are B772.

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by evanb
Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airlink adds 11 ERJ-140s
Replies: 4
Views: 1135

Re: Airlink adds 11 ERJ-140s

I presume the ERJ-140 has better hot and high performance than the ERJ-145.

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by evanb
Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: easyJet to fall out of FTSE100 index. Risk of IAG takeover bid?
Replies: 13
Views: 3742

Re: easyJet to fall out of FTSE100 index. Risk of IAG takeover bid?

You say that but Lufthansa group are huge in Europe and looking at other opportunities so why can't IAG? Specifically, the UK authorities will be very concerned with concentration in the London market. They are likely to look at London as a whole, rather than the airports separately. The remedial a...

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by evanb
Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: easyJet to fall out of FTSE100 index. Risk of IAG takeover bid?
Replies: 13
Views: 3742

Re: easyJet to fall out of FTSE100 index. Risk of IAG takeover bid?

Could IAG submit a takeover bid for easyJet in the next couple of years? This would partly be a defensive move as easyJet has said it will start operations from Heathrow when a third runway opens which would put a lot of pressure on BA short-haul at LHR. If easyJet's UK operations are merged into B...

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