Delta paid an average of US$86--90 mm for each A339 including the remaining 15 or 16 still to be delivered on the current order book. That has been a very wise use of Capex. They got a large, modern, fuel efficient transatlantic 'shutle' aircraft for CDG, LHR and AMS operations but yet flexible enou...
Jump to postThose A330-900 prices seem like a great bargain. They were. Delta when they placed their initial order for A339 and A359 (25 of each aircraft) committed to a capex of 5375, which works out to about $210-$215million per pair. So I deduce about $85-90MM per A339 and about $125-130million per A359. Bu...
Jump to postI just finished analyzing the Delta 10K for YE 2022, continuing the quarterly analysis I started in 2010, and which I update quarterly on my Excel spreadsheet. Nothing earth shaking but here are the prices Delta is paying for its aircraft deliveries in 2023 (plus or minus 3-4%): 9 of the A220-300 at...
Jump to post[quote="MIflyer12"][quote="Spacepope"] There's the crack spread: what a refinery gets for turning crude into products: fractions of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, home heating oil, asphalt... That can vary quite a bit over time. High crack spreads in NYC were substantially Delta's r...
Jump to postVery interesting to update my quarterly analysis of what Delta is paying for its aircraft on order, and deduce that the 100 737-10 (MAX) ordered during Q3 2022 are being bought for around $52million each (+-3mm) compared to the $61mm (+-$3mm) each they are paying for the A321-NEOs (147 still to be d...
Jump to postOh and there's finally a proposal for Houghton MI. No prizes for guessing it's Boutique. I'm sure the folks there are ecstatic ... not. Do you think it'll get rejected? No prizes ... https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2009-0302-0072 Which leaves Liberal KS as the only community without a ...
Jump to postOh and there's finally a proposal for Houghton MI. No prizes for guessing it's Boutique. I'm sure the folks there are ecstatic ... not. Do you think it'll get rejected? No prizes ... https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2009-0302-0072 Which leaves Liberal KS as the only community without a ...
Jump to postFor me it makes sense for Delta to bid on CMX, and run one eastbound daily MSP-CMX-MQT (SAW)-DTW and one west bound daily DTW-MQT(SAW)-CMX-MSP, using an A220-100 aircraft (or at least a E175). Both CMX and MQT are university towns, with Michigan Tech's engineering school particularly having an activ...
Jump to postThis ties in to my analysis I have been running on a spreadsheet (based on 10K's and 10Qs aircraft purchase commitment numbers) on Delta since 2010. The first 100 A321 neos on order are priced at around 58-59mm each, the supplemental 55 units are priced closer to 60-61mm each. The A321ceos cost Delt...
Jump to postFascinating tidbit from DL's 10-Q: * It appears DL's order for 25 A321 NEO earlier this year was a new order, rather than an exercise of options (options remain at 100, but orders grew to 125). * Purchase commitments beyond 2021 grew by $1.57B. Language was added to indicate this doesn't include le...
Jump to postOh I should add the reminder that while the 7 used A359's are costing on average $103mm each, it is probable that the unit contract purchase (present value of lease) pricing could range from $85mm to $120mm depending on their line number, hours, 280T versions, scheduled heavy maintenance, etc.
Jump to postNice to confirm. The 7 new A359's under lease have a cost of $719mm divided by 7=less than $103million per copy, compared to around $135-140mm for each new build one that Delta has/is buying. The 29 used 739ER are being picked up for an average $15-20mm each. Sure Delta IMHO will probably spend $10-...
Jump to postKeep in mind that under IFRS16 if the 7 A350's and 2 B739 are booked as operating leases, these are now treated essentially the same as financial leases and regular debt financing in the sense that everything is now reported on Delta's balance sheet. If IFRS were applicable to U.S. companies, this ...
Jump to postInteresting that all 29 737ERs are coming from a single source, and all 7 of the 359s are coming from a single source. I would expect that Delta got an even better deal on these frames by buying in volume from a lessor, rather than the lessor having to find a collage of homes for their frames. This...
Jump to postHas SEA-LHR been dropped? Virgin Atlantic is operating the SEA-LHR route for their JV. I don't see it as Delta dropping it. When travel restrictions ease further I see Delta adding a flight to complement the current Virgin Atlantic run. No it’s not. DL was operating it. Last flight 7/6 though and n...
Jump to postI have been tracking Delta's financial fleet commitments on an Excel spreadsheet every quarter since 2010. I track the changes in their financial fleet commitment dollar amount each quarter, against the quantity of aircraft per model on order at each end of quarter, as well as deliveries each quart...
Jump to postskipness1E wrote:Has SEA-LHR been dropped?
Oh by the way feel free to multiply out the following Delta order book as of March 31 2021: Aircraft commitments (frames as reported by Delta, Dollar estimate per aircraft as deduced by me) 14 A321 ceo at US$40-45mm each 29 A339 at $85-90mm each 20 A359 at $125-130mm each 4 CS100 (ok A220-100) at $2...
Jump to postThe 739s were bought cheap too, I am certain. Now that is just my opinion. Lightsaber I have been tracking Delta's financial fleet commitments on an Excel spreadsheet every quarter since 2010. I track the changes in their financial fleet commitment dollar amount each quarter, against the quantity o...
Jump to postI flew on Italian charter operator SAMIT from Malpensa to Luton in 1974-so they operated at least one Caravelle. I think my last Caravelle flight was in 1982 or 1983, operated by SAN ( Ecuador) on a Quito to Guayaquil run.
Jump to postYou are assuming it is a $2B capital commitment. Its very possible the deal was structured as a lease or some other financing mechanism, which would not be deemed information requiring an 8K. Committing to acquire aircraft in the future whether paid in cash, or financed with a loan, or financed wit...
Jump to postAlso don't overlook the political considerations. Delta along with the other US airlines are getting a substantial amount of assistance from the federal government. Buying aircraft from an american source right now is politically advisable. And Delta by being the MAX+ (Re) Launch customer will comma...
Jump to postI think most observers would agree that in the last 10 years Delta has had the best revenue management programs and simulations, as evidenced by their profitability and also their ability to grow in new markets such as SEA which may not yet be profitable but it can certainly can be argued is not dra...
Jump to postIt strikes me that Delta can advise the new board how to reconfigure Alitalia as a 2 hub or actually I would prefer the term a two focus city airline (Milan and Rome), Italy's geography and economic distribution makes a one hub solution problematic. Delta is certainly accustomed to analyzing flows &...
Jump to postHi during the hearings as part of the trade complaint by Boeing involving the Delta purchase of Canadian built CS100's it was disclosed that Delta had the right to convert 40 of the 75 firm order as well as the 50 options to CS300's. Here is the original source document that disclosed this in the te...
Jump to postThe only surprise was the increase in the A220-100 order count from the minimum commitment of 35 to 40 units. I was expecting aircraft sequence numbers #36 on up to all be in the larger -300 variant. I suspect it has to do with the availability of Mobile's produced A220s. A220-100s can be obtained ...
Jump to postThe only surprise was the increase in the A220-100 order count from the minimum commitment of 35 to 40 units. I was expecting aircraft sequence numbers #36 on up to all be in the larger -300 variant. Does anyone know if the 15 additional aircraft represent conversion of some of the options, which wo...
Jump to posthkcanadaexpat wrote:MSN 231 (CA#6) first CAF #AIB06NO
MSN 250 (JJ#9) maintenance engine run and taxi test
MSN 267 (DL#12) first flight #AIB01GE
MSN 269 (MU#3) initial engine run
They have now received 31 so far this year, which is the scheduled total, and all are in service. Are you seeing one or two more being delivered this month? Thanks, so that means only 2 A321's delivered during all of Q4 2018? so at year end 12/31/2018 they will have a total of 65 A321's on hand? Is...
Jump to postDetroit to Iron Mountain, Pellston, Alpena, Marquette, Sault St Marie, Wasau, et al... Atlanta to New Bern, Columbus, Albany, Brunswick, etc. All of those routes out of DTW sans CWA, are At-Risk/EAS flying, which is up to Skywest to drop or keep, not Delta, at the end of the day. The complex part o...
Jump to postIt strikes me that Boston will be A220 'heaven' by this time next year. It is indicated above that they took over Terminal A in Q3 2019. How extensive a remodeling will be needed to unify the facility?
Jump to postLockheed has Skunk Works, Boeing has Phantom Works, what trendy name does Airbus have? Alas these divisions were mostly for secret military projects. The A322 would never fit there since They have leaked plenty of information through Leeham News. Given all the skulduggery and subterfuge surrounding...
Jump to postJust want to point out that there are 127 A321ceo on order. About a year ago an additional 5 were added to the order book. Agreed, my number of A321-200 ceo's on hand at end of Q3 2018 was 63, with 64 still to be delivered, for the total of 127 I am estimating that by year end Dec 31, 2018, they sh...
Jump to postJust want to point out that there are 127 A321ceo on order. About a year ago an additional 5 were added to the order book. Agreed, my number of A321-200 ceo's on hand at end of Q3 2018 was 63, with 64 still to be delivered, for the total of 127 I am estimating that by year end Dec 31, 2018, they sh...
Jump to postHave I missed that apparently FI is not going through with the WOW takeover? https://www.hmgaerospace.com/news/lara/ ... quisition/
Jump to postNoteworthy Aircraft Activity 11/20 763ER-high J: COS-RIV-COS-RIV-COS military charter (N171DN) 763ER-high J: ATL-MSY NFL charter flight bringing the Falcons to New Orleans for Thursday's game (N172DN) 763ER-high J: unscheduled upgrade from 752 on 4:10pm ATL-MCO-ATL rotation (N179DN) 763ER-high J: u...
Jump to postDefinitely not the busiest travel period of the year. If you average yesterday and today it is probably one of the lowest travel periods of the year! Sunday will be busier but as stated above probably not in the top 10 or even 20 busy travel days. Our local university in fact is closed all week so a...
Jump to postAgreed, I would not worry about whether Airline X has old frames or new frames, in a downturn the airlines with less overall leverage will survive. Southwest;s profits dipped during the great recession but never went negative. Anderson and the Delta management since that time have done a pretty good...
Jump to postDelta was able to secure end of the line pricing on the 10 A333 IGW, and then they were able to get launch pricing on the 25 A339, and then they were able to get a 'Hi this is Airbus--we really need some A339 orders to keep the line going at full capacity' pricing offer from Airbus on the incrementa...
Jump to postMSPNWA- it is a question of timing. If now Boeing is willing to price its 787-9's within 10 or 15mm of a A339 pricing, which seems to have been the case in the last 2-3 years, it can dramatically change the calculations on fuel burn, incremental interest costs, incremental depreciation expense, and ...
Jump to postIf we assume the 787-9 has 5% lower fuel burn, and if a 787-9 and a A339 are operated 15 hours per day 330 days per year, ie. about 5000 flight hours per year, which tend to be on the extreme side of average daily use--I think of the A333's that fly down to GRU and sit there for over 12 hours befor...
Jump to postCoronado, the data, assumptions, analysis, and unbiased observations you have brought to this thread are much appreciated. This is the type of stuff that keeps me reading this forum and is a much needed relief from all the other bluster and fanboyism throughout the website. Thanks I too am bothered...
Jump to postIf we assume the 787-9 has 5% lower fuel burn, and if a 787-9 and a A339 are operated 15 hours per day 330 days per year, ie. about 5000 flight hours per year, which tend to be on the extreme side of average daily use--I think of the A333's that fly down to GRU and sit there for over 12 hours before...
Jump to postThis may not be the correct topic for the following post, but it arises from one of my earlier posts where I deduced what Delta is paying for its new orders including the A339 and A359. This was done by analyzing the annual 10K’s and Quarterly 10Qs for the past 8 years and using a spreadsheet, deduc...
Jump to postAs some have mentioned above,the advance deposits made by the financially stronger airlines (the Tier 1 customers of Boeing and Airbus) really don't need to put up a lot of advance payments, i.e. a signed contract and a modest deposit are sufficient. I just looked at United's 10Q for Sept 30, 2018. ...
Jump to postWhen you run a business you do not buy "the best," you buy the right tools for each job. Buying the 787 to fly it DTW-AMS is like buying a Bugatti to go 75 MPH. Not necessary. T he A330neo is perfect for that job, and tens of millions of dollars cheaper than 787. Again... because the 787 ...
Jump to postDelta has 2 additional 359's arriving in 2019 and the final 2 of the current tranche arriving in 2020, which will bring the fleet to 15. That seems like a reasonable replacement for the 747 fleet which let's face it was already down to only maybe 7 active frames by June 2017 and it seems like most o...
Jump to postThe 5th freedom rights were a reminder of a lost war and were a source of shame. May I ask you to elaborate on this a bit? How does the 5th freedom remind Japan of the war? The 5th Freedom rights that NWA had at Tokyo were imposed by the victorious power at the end of WWII. People may forget that u...
Jump to postAdditional thoughts: . But it could be the case that some of this $48mm in deposits on equipment purchases, actually included some amounts as advance payments effected to the Japanese airlines as prepaid progress payments toward the delivery of the used 12 MD 90's! So maybe the MD90's cost Delta $9m...
Jump to postI had fun going back and reviewing the Delta 10K for the year ending 12/31/2010 which was filed on Feb 16, 2011. It stated in one of the notes: Quote: NOTE 7. PURCHASE COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES Aircraft Purchase Commitments Future aircraft purchase commitments at December 31, 2010 are estimated ...
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