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by Planeflyer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Because with every generation you are falling further and further behind. I see no evidence for that. European nations decided against stealth in the 80`s, its not as if companies in Europe didn´t know how to build stealthy aircraft, they did build enough up to full scale to get a feel for Radar re...

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by Planeflyer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 113
Views: 15562

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

Reality is as follows:

Outside of EK who used the 380 to move many trips form 3 stops to 2 AB forget that time is the most precious commodity.

787, 350, 777, 321XLR and 797( if built) all enable more p2p services while at the same time reducing risk.


Just not that difficult.

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by Planeflyer
Sat Jul 21, 2018 5:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future
Replies: 113
Views: 15562

Re: A380 - Two VERY Different Views of the Future

Anybody who travels understands the one common denominator, time is the most precious commodity.

How AB missed this, I’ll never understand.

Calling the 380 a whale was inaccurate. It is a dinosaur. A beautiful creature but bound for extinction before it ever flew.

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:22 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Because with every generation you are falling further and further behind. Europe has and always will be a ripe target. Yes , today there are no immediate threats but the same could be said many times in the past and yet major wars came from seemingly nowhere. Full command of the air is the single be...

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by Planeflyer
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Europe’s best move would be to develop a 6 th gen ac. It’ll be 10-20 billion more and 5-10 years later but it will have a much better shot of success. the no-vertical stabilizer bit is pretty gen. 6ish Better yet would be a cooperative effort w the USA on 6 th gen. Not ever going to happen. Needing...

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by Planeflyer
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:11 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Slovakia to purchase Block 70 F-16s
Replies: 16
Views: 1341

Re: Slovakia to purchase Block 70 F-16s

The F16 is but only one myth. Every 4th gen AC are target drones in a world with
Aesa.

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by Planeflyer
Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's
Replies: 53
Views: 8300

Re: Volga-Dnepr Group Purchases 5 747-8F, commits to 29 777F's

Didn’t the 748 cost $5 nil? Are they going to pay that back even if they get another 100 orders?

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by Planeflyer
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: David Neeleman Raising Funds for New U.S. Airline
Replies: 233
Views: 25299

Re: David Neeleman Raising Funds for New U.S. Airline

Sounds like there will be some nice travel opportunities.

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by Planeflyer
Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: David Neeleman Raising Funds for New U.S. Airline
Replies: 233
Views: 25299

Re: David Neeleman Raising Funds for New U.S. Airline

When he can’t even articulate a clear vision yet, I think it’s too early to know anything about the future of “Moxy”. If you have ever been to one of his speeches to College Business Departments, he many times talks about some of the best information to put out there is misinformation that leaves o...

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by Planeflyer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Slovakia to purchase Block 70 F-16s
Replies: 16
Views: 1341

Re: Slovakia to purchase Block 70 F-16s

The US must assume worst case which means contested airspace. F16 will not last long in such airspace. This is not 1980. Every nation developing new AC are designing in 5th or 6 th gen capabilities so while 4 th gen craft have some peacetime utility they have zero deterrence and zero utility in any ...

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by Planeflyer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: David Neeleman Raising Funds for New U.S. Airline
Replies: 233
Views: 25299

Re: David Neeleman Raising Funds for New U.S. Airline

How about Carlsbad in north county San Diego director to east coast and up and down the west coast?

Isn’t this what the C series can do

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Orders 60 Airbus A220-300
Replies: 354
Views: 46864

Re: JetBlue Orders 60 Airbus A220-300

If those analysts are right, that's also very low price for the A220 that mirrors the DL order. Not exactly a good sign for profitability for the A220 line, and also not a good sign for Airbus profits with the hit that they took with this order with the A320neo being substituted for it. I think in ...

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by Planeflyer
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Should Boeing have built the 747-500?
Replies: 56
Views: 9960

Re: Should Boeing have built the 747-500?

No, the 748 was even a dumber decision than the 380. By the time the 748 decision was made B could see that their understanding of p2p was spot on.

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

[quote="zeke"]Significant detauls of RLI can be found in the various WTO submissions (it would take weeks to go through). It is not the topic of this thread. The false claim that not a dime of A380 development costs has been paid has been shown to be clearly false. A dime is a very low bar...

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

The RLI discussion is interesting and somewhat opaque. What it is however is Repayable and there is no end to that. So the European countries that offered RLI for the A380 will get their money back - plus some interest - no matter how many Airbus sell. For the A320 family Airbus are still paying ro...

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

First, do we know that Airbus includes RLI as production cost in its accounting? As others have pointed out, RLI is a liability that exists whether it's paid from royalties or not. A past liability that is independent of production shouldn't be counted as a production cost. That it's paid simultane...

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

“World Historical failure” is hyperbole but largest commercial failure is not. And now that it is clear that even the most knowledgeable AB posters don’t understand the RLI amounts It is probably larger than we know. It is fair question to ask if the only reason the program hasn’t been canceled is b...

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

Regards the 777X lets use AB's projections for the xlarge market segment. AB projects 1700 but given their poor track record projecting this segment lets be conservative and only assume 1100 deliveries over the next 20 years. Lets further assume 150 380's and 565 350-1000 giving AB a 65% market shar...

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

and demand extends to A380 parts as well. every airframe sold Airbus repaid RLI, First, do we know that Airbus includes RLI as production cost in its accounting? As others have pointed out, RLI is a liability that exists whether it's paid from royalties or not. A past liability that is independent o...

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

Anyone know the following:

How much RLI was received? How much is still owed? How much per AC is paid pack?

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Landing on top of the Pan Am building
Replies: 23
Views: 5365

Re: Landing on top of the Pan Am building

Just a small point but isn’t this now the MetLife building?

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Landing on top of the Pan Am building
Replies: 23
Views: 5365

Re: Landing on top of the Pan Am building

Just a small point but isn’t this now the MetLife building?

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

Ok so does anyone have any inside info about how AB came to the conclusion they did on the 380? Straight from Airbus's 2000 GMF: Despite the fact that Airbus forecasters have reduced their projections of long-term passenger traffic growth by one-tenth of a percentage point, the 575 500-seaters, 404...

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

Ok so does anyone have any inside info about how AB came to the conclusion they did on the 380?

Did anyone lose their job?

Did JL’s over exuberance drive the decision?

I’m not looking for speculation. I know this site if designed for that but there has been way too much already.

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

In real life there are no fat ladies singing. This is what makes forecasting so difficult.

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

Unfortunately for Airbus projections, demand influences both quantity demanded and price. The demand projections were too rosy on both; thus even with perfect execution Airbus would have lost money after 250 frames. Any effort to do defend the wisdom of this program has to rely on some elementary i...

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

The decisions to build models were based on completely different numbers in those times, than put forward today. The aim was a production break even after 250 frames. Something Airbus had managed on the A330/340 and A320. Unfortunately for Airbus projections, demand influences both quantity demande...

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

If AB took the risk to develop the 380 based on achieving only 600 deliveries than their decision making process was dumber than any of us ever knew. The decisions to build models were based on completely different numbers in those times, than put forward today. The aim was a production break even ...

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 41584

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

If AB took the risk to develop the 380 based on achieving only 600 deliveries than their decision making process was dumber than any of us ever knew.

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by Planeflyer
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Eric Schulz not the best candidate to replace John Leahy at Airbus?
Replies: 30
Views: 4141

Re: Eric Schulz not the best candidate to replace John Leahy at Airbus?

There has been a shift but it has been going on for sometime. AB is the market leader in NB. Boeing is the market leader in WB. Both of the above have been known for quite sometime. The extent of AB problems in the WB have become more apparent to some on this site only recently. For example AB proje...

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Eric Schulz not the best candidate to replace John Leahy at Airbus?
Replies: 30
Views: 4141

Re: Eric Schulz not the best candidate to replace John Leahy at Airbus?

Commercial aircraft are not impulse purchases. An order cancelled today, has been in the process of being 'lost' for at least the previous 12 months, probably longer. Ditto for new sales. Unlikely any accountability can be attributed to recent Airbus senior executive changes, either for recently an...

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Eric Schulz not the best candidate to replace John Leahy at Airbus?
Replies: 30
Views: 4141

Re: Eric Schulz not the best candidate to replace John Leahy at Airbus?

I think multiple issues are converging to make schulz’s Job more difficult. 1) he is not JL. 2) AB has two strong ac the 320 and 359 so opportunities are much more constrained. 3) in the 320 it is difficult to close big deals given delivery slot constraints. Even for JL this would be tough sledding...

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Eric Schulz not the best candidate to replace John Leahy at Airbus?
Replies: 30
Views: 4141

Re: Eric Schulz not the best candidate to replace John Leahy at Airbus?

I think multiple issues are converging to make schulz’s Job more difficult. 1) he is not JL. 2) AB has two strong ac the 320 and 359 so opportunities are much more constrained. 3) in the 320 it is difficult to close big deals given delivery slot constraints. Even for JL this would be tough sledding.

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:18 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Holy smokes, imagine the ridicule Dassault will be hearing from certain members over a stealth design.

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 3:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Undisclosed Order for 10 A330NEOs and 10 A350s
Replies: 107
Views: 17295

Re: Undisclosed Order for 10 A330NEOs and 10 A350s

As long as it’s not amadeo!

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Undisclosed Order for 10 A330NEOs and 10 A350s
Replies: 107
Views: 17295

Re: Undisclosed Order for 10 A330NEOs and 10 A350s

Lets hope it’s not Amedeo

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by Planeflyer
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Europe’s best move would be to develop a 6 th gen ac. It’ll be 10-20 billion more and 5-10 years later but it will have a much better shot of success.

Better yet would be a cooperative effort w the USA on 6 th gen.

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by Planeflyer
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Argentina deregulates its domestic airfares
Replies: 25
Views: 3259

Re: Argentina deregulates its domestic airfares

The fact that this is even a discussion speaks volumes about Argentina and LA.

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by Planeflyer
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Manufacturers forecasts
Replies: 10
Views: 878

Re: Manufacturers forecasts

Good post, forget that, great post! I’m fascinated by the forecasting issues that face the ac industry. Just look at the 787 vs 748. How could B get one so right and the other do wrong? Boeing has been consistently right about fragmentation and yet they rolled the dice on the 748. Maybe the worst de...

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 02, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Claims that A350XWB is quieter than B787, but is it really?
Replies: 224
Views: 30181

Re: Airbus Claims that A350XWB is quieter than B787, but is it really?

No question 380 is the quietest but the 787 is OK and I do feel a bit less jet lag. I was looking for ward to flying the 350 until I read the thread about the risks associated with bled air. Do any frequent flyers here worry about the long term impacts associated with this?

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by Planeflyer
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

German policy is clear and well supported by many and maybe even most Germans; let’s not spend our money as long as the USA will. This is more or less wrong. With the up front example of the US spending to no end on allegedly defense outlay and creating and then aggravating a long line of global pr...

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Agree but this is not the right question.

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by Planeflyer
Sun Jul 01, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sorry it was a bad attempt at sarcasm. my reference to W was to Wiederling and his many conspiracy theories. German policy is clear and well supported by many and maybe even most Germans; let’s not spend our money as long as the USA will. You say it is good for the US to stay in Europe. Ok, let’s pu...

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by Planeflyer
Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

https://amp.dw.com/en/germanys-lack-of-military-readiness-dramatic-says-bundeswehr-commissioner/a-42663215 I can just hear it now from W. German officials are so caught up w Trump’s tweets they can’t make time to fix the problem. Actually the truth is the reason for Trump’s statements on the subject...

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jun 29, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Sorry hit send too soon. The argument for a Europeon ac tacitly relies on the US since Europe does not currently have a product that is mission capable. So on the one hand there is no need to buy the F35 since it is not needed but on the other hand the same people who argue for this argue that becau...

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by Planeflyer
Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement
Replies: 872
Views: 80108

Re: Germany Considers Tornado Replacement

Good question the beef is this: NATO has kept the peace for almost 80 years in a region thas seen large wars on average once a generation for almost a thousand years. Many of these have erupted unexpectedly and especially from the East. And almost all were generated by actions of country or countrie...

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by Planeflyer
Thu Jun 28, 2018 5:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta CEO says don’t overbuild “797”; skeptical on hypersonic airliner
Replies: 77
Views: 16822

Re: Delta CEO says don’t overbuild “797”; skeptical on hypersonic airliner

Maybe Delta’s concept is to use the 797 like EK uses the 380. In jfk, dtw, all and Seattle they may just have ek like scale to upguage the plane size to drive unit cost to better battle lcc trend. Don’t know all this for sure but Delta knows how to build moats around their business and maybe they se...

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by Planeflyer
Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flight attendants have a higher rate of every cancer outcome, study says
Replies: 70
Views: 9231

Re: Flight attendants have a higher rate of every cancer outcome, study says

I would think that this is because of the radiation they experience flying. Every 2 hours or so is equal to a typical thorax x-ray. At least that's what I've read. Metal detectors are not the issue. Does anyone have any hard data on the exposure to radiation at flight altitude? Are there known carc...

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