Search found 24101 matches

by Stitch
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 MAX Production Thread - Part 1
Replies: 432
Views: 109105

Re: Boeing 737 MAX Production Thread - Part 1

barney captain wrote:
Does anyone know if the MAX has achieved ETOP's certification and whether or not the WN deliveries will all be ETOPS?


The LEAP-1B engines received ETOPS-180 from the FAA and EASA last month. As of this month, the MAX 8 is still performing ETOPS and FAR testing.

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by Stitch
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Adding to the accounting block will decrease the average amount per frame needed to cut the deferred cost, but the question then is how long before we reach the situation again where $40 million per frame is needed for the new block? Now that 787 deliveries are generating positive revenue, we shoul...

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by Stitch
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 124
Views: 17966

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Lufthansa's disclosures from 2013 to 2016 all show 34 FIRM orders for the 777X, plus twenty something options disclosed separately. This does not seem to be an option expiration at all. LH may very well have a signed a sales contract with Boeing for 34 777-9, but they only put down deposits for 20 ...

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by Stitch
Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

The second point is that after that point the frame shall be produced in such quantities that upgrades is possible. This seems to be the problem special compared to the A350 that can be assumed to have paid back its investments much earlier. The risk is that Airbus can invest more into the 350 then...

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 124
Views: 17966

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

I am thinking only of the LH mainline fleet. At this time, unless I'm mistaken, I believe there's nothing in the mainline fleet that I would consider high-density. Putting a 779 with 10-across into the LH mainline fleet would change that. I think a 777-9 would make a solid replacement for the 371-s...

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Excluding the 767 and write downs, model contribution to respective deferred costs across Commercial must surely be at an all time low, including the 787 (based on life cycle), if converted to 2017 values. On a Unit Cost basis, BCA 2016 saw revenues of $3.9 billion, which is a fair bit better than ...

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 22, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

I truly am mystified by all the people who think there is an issue with Program Accounting and "block" size,and apparently have no idea how it works (thus they see problems where there are none). I expect a fair bit of it comes from the media, whom generally and incorrectly represent the ...

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 22, 2017 4:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

To be quite clear, I was arguing that Airbus accounting for development in the year spent has a more immediate impact on the bottom line than accounting for it via Programme accounting does. Boeing Commercial Aircraft may well have a stronger underlying profitability than Airbus Commercial Aircraft...

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 22, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments
Replies: 572
Views: 71379

Re: SpaceX - Tests, Launches, Developments

Man-Rating a launch system has to be a very expensive and time-consuming process. The costs in time (delays) and money of certifying the Dragon's powered-landing system might outweigh the benefits compared to having it land in the ocean or on land like the Soviet capsules do.

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 22, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 124
Views: 17966

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

I'm sure you would agree, it was very unusual for a customer to reject an aircraft, and then for the manufacturer to not offer to build a replacement. Or did the manufacturer offer, but the customer declined to take a replacement? At this point, a contract variation would have been agreed, or maybe...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

For example, the 788 was priced too low from the very start. Even when achieving record sales before first flight, sales were still being written at launch style discounts, which is why there was disharmony from early on between the 787 and 777 teams. The 787 list prices were indeed low, but so wer...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 124
Views: 17966

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Surely some customer posturing going on here. Perhaps the options and order are in question, because Boeing will only agree to buyback the 748i's on 777X orders 16-34, not 1-19 expected by LH? Was the rejection and non-replacement of one 748i the catalyst that permitted a change to the contract T&a...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

It appears that so much money was spent on the Terrible Teens that Boeing would have been better to scrap them. Scrapping the first 20 787s would have resulted in accounting charges probably in the neighborhood of $10 billion based on the almost $3.5 billion "scrapping" LN001 through LN00...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

But do we not have a situation that the residential value of the delivered 787s must be going down fast? I mean that only the latest 787s have the RR 1000 TEN engines equal in efficiency to the RR 7000. This means that A330NEO should be equal or even better compared to most RR equipped 787 delivere...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders
Replies: 255
Views: 63596

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders

Think how much faster the 787 issues could have been resolved if they weren't wasting their resources on the 8. The opposite happened - Boeing re-assigned engineering resources from the 747-8 program to get the 787 program back on track, which resulted in significant delays to the 747-8. Boeing end...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 124
Views: 17966

Re: LH apparently cancel 14 of 34 779s

General speculation was that LH signed an MoU for 34 frames and as part of that MoU, cancelled 20 Purchase Options they had for the 747-8 and applied them to the first 20 777-9s, which became firm orders. LH subsequently never firmed the other 14 and I am assuming a trigger clause has now fired that...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Do a google search on Boeing 787 production costs....some are claiming Boeing will still have production costs exceeding $5Bn even after 2000 frames are produced, Sure...it's all sunk money...but Im scratching my head trying to understand why they are sticking to the 1300 accounting block when they...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders
Replies: 255
Views: 63596

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders

VirginFlyer wrote:
So they were expecting to sell 450, of which 180 would be -8Fs, and 270 -8Is. Currently sales stand at 86 and 48 respectively. Interesting.


Both Boeing and Airbus significantly over-estimated the number of VLAs they would each sell, as well as the total market.

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A330 NEO Production And Delivery Thread Part 1
Replies: 425
Views: 112347

Re: A330 NEO Production And Delivery Thread Part 1

Why do they build customer frames before the actual in air flight testing starts? What if something is discovered that needs a redesign? Either way, it looks absolutely stunning! A new aircraft program is so expensive that an OEM cannot really afford to have the FAL lie idle for months while the te...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Thanks for your explanation, but booking them against earnings is indirectly making the 737 pay for 787 R&D, isn't it? So for a clean break even of the programm itself we are talking about more than 4000 frames, realistically, which it will never reach. So Boeing played all accounting tricks th...

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders
Replies: 255
Views: 63596

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders

Arion640 wrote:
Have I missed something but who are the 30 unidentified 777 orders for?


20 of them are known to be 777-9's for Singapore Airlines.

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

If they extend the accounting block size to the point of having all deffered costs accounted for, they still need to recover all R&D costs, needn't they? R&D costs are (and have been) booked against earnings in the year they were incurred so the bulk of those have already been accounted for...

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

kanban wrote:
Boeing sales page today (7/20) shows two new sales for 747s.... customer unidentified.


Bloomberg(?) said Qatar Cargo was going to order/operate two 747-8F so these may be it.

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

The original accounting block was 1100 planes Boeing has already extended the accounting block once to 1300 planes, it is far from certain that Boeing will get permission to extend the accounting block again. The securities regulator will decide that. I'm sure (a 1500-1600 accounting block is what)...

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SVA 787 circling +2 hours over MAN
Replies: 28
Views: 4009

Re: SVA 787 circling +2 hours over MAN

Four hours extra fuel plus reserves. The Dreamliner really is economical. It must have been running on fumes towards the end of the flight. It is possible it was carrying fuel for the return leg aboard, which both required and allowed it to be in a holding pattern so long to reach the necessary lan...

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 212
Views: 17141

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

Therefore, unless the production cost unexpectedly comes down faster than expected the accounting block will not reduce in number. It can only reduce if airlines cancel existing orders and do not place new orders ever. The question is whether Boeing can show a profit with the current accounting blo...

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SVA 787 circling +2 hours over MAN
Replies: 28
Views: 4009

Re: SVA 787 circling +2 hours over MAN

Four hours extra fuel plus reserves. The Dreamliner really is economical. It must have been running on fumes towards the end of the flight. It is possible it was carrying fuel for the return leg aboard, which both required and allowed it to be in a holding pattern so long to reach the necessary lan...

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by Stitch
Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

HOOB747 wrote:
Stitch, do you know if the new AF1 will be the passenger or freighter upper deck configuration?


It will be the passenger model.

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by Stitch
Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

dennys wrote:
Sorry : NO hope for a 747-8i AIR FORCE ONE ?


The 747-8 Intercontinental has already been selected as the base frame for the next AF1.

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by Stitch
Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

The current UPS livery looks awesome on a 747 airframe, IMO, so I hope it did not change too much.

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by Stitch
Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: KC-46 Production, Testing And Delivery
Replies: 1285
Views: 57406

Re: KC-46 Production, Testing And Delivery

Was down at the Museum of Flight this morning and caught a KC-46A going up for a flight. There were also four more birds at the Flight Test Center (along with the 787-10 and what I assume is the 737-9).

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by Stitch
Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Japan Airlines outlines A350 strategy
Replies: 66
Views: 15666

Re: Japan Airlines outlines A350 strategy

Have flown on JL 787s with 8-abreast a number of times and it was fantastic. Also, the seat pitch was not too bad, either. Looking forward to flying on JL's A350s with 9-abreast seats. A 9 abreast A350 will not have the same comfort as an 8 abreast 787. It's only an extra inch on the 787. Hardly wo...

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by Stitch
Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Airbus beefs up A350-1000, A350-900
Replies: 53
Views: 14607

Re: Airbus beefs up A350-1000, A350-900

And the 777 family has seen a similar ~50% increase between the 230,000kg of the 777-200 and 352,000kg of the 777-300ER. There was a 25% increase just between the 777-200 and 777-200ER.

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Japan Airlines outlines A350 strategy
Replies: 66
Views: 15666

Re: Japan Airlines outlines A350 strategy

My understanding is the only reason that JL picked the A350 over the 777X is because they didn't trust Boeing after the 787 delay fiasco. In effect they fired Boeing. NH and others were more forgiving. JAL's Chairman didn't want to put all their eggs into one OEM basket anymore. By choosing from bo...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Demo Colors - What's Next?
Replies: 38
Views: 5185

Re: Boeing Demo Colors - What's Next?

Blue is the way to go. The red on the 747 is a dog and a pathetic attempt from someone to appeal to Chinese based on what they saw in a Indiana Jones movie. Person probably is a 'cultural enlightened' liberal who does not know the difference between China and Korean If Sunrise Orange was such a Chi...

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

ILNFlyer wrote:
How many -8f does UPS have on order?


14, though some have already been built (NTUs for other freighter customers).

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by Stitch
Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

Look at it this way - if UPS has a media event planned, would they want to blow it by saying so so some fellow on the Internet asking via Twitter?

Also, it's possible the person answering had no clue as it might not have been disseminated to all staff internally at the time.

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Skymark Airlines mulls reintroduction of widebody aircraft
Replies: 8
Views: 2213

Re: Skymark Airlines mulls reintroduction of widebody aircraft

Armodeen wrote:
I bet they order Boeings this time :lol:


With ANA's leadership helping to call the shots and ANA being a major investor, that stands to reason.

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

Perhaps the 3 748-8I white tails will become the new AF1's ? L/N 1495 - the NTU UAE BBJ - has been purchased by Qatar Amiri Flight per rumors. May I know how different are these three frames compared to those of current operators? Anyone has any information? L/N 1435 would have been built to LH spe...

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders
Replies: 255
Views: 63596

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders

Geoff1947 wrote:
Yes two of the passenger version in the unfilled orderbook now. One for KE ready for delivery in the next few weeks the other presumed to be a BBJ that has already been built.


Per the 747-8 Production Thread, the BBJ is LN 1495 for Qatar Amiri flight.

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders
Replies: 255
Views: 63596

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2017 Orders

anshabhi wrote:
Polot wrote:
qf789 wrote:
No new orders. In the changes category, reduced 747 orders by three.

Probably the remainder of Transaero's order.

B748 is officially futureless now.


Well there will be two orders for the VC-25 replacement, but that's realistically it.

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by Stitch
Thu Jul 13, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing admits 747 has no future as a pax model
Replies: 143
Views: 20579

Re: Boeing admits 747 has no future as a pax model

Boeing has recorded the cancellation of the remaining three 747-8's on order by Transaero, bringing the order book for the model officially to 0.

I expect the VC-25 replacement to now be funded in Fiscal Year 2019 to finish out the model.

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by Stitch
Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

And what's with the dark grey and light green (?) on the tail? Grey isn't an UPS color and the light green is something that can be seen on the tail panels of other unpainted 747s so I'm not convinced it's actually painted underneath all that. The grey has a distinct military look to it too... Also...

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by Stitch
Wed Jul 12, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Airbus beefs up A350-1000, A350-900
Replies: 53
Views: 14607

Re: Airbus beefs up A350-1000, A350-900

IMO the 787 is not open to improvements in the same way as the A350 are. Well the 787-8 theoretically has plenty of TOW headroom left by leveraging 787-9 components, just as the A350-900 could leverage A350-1000 components to grow her TOW into the 300,000kg tier. However, both would really only ben...

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by Stitch
Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Transat leases 10 A321neoLRs
Replies: 40
Views: 8802

Re: Air Transat leases 10 A321neoLRs

So they'll have 20% or 50 seats less than what they are replacing. That might better match capacity to demand. There is no proper A310 replacement available. Either you opt for the smaller A321LR or add additional A330s. I'm guessing they want to downsize, but if they did not, a 767-300ER would off...

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by Stitch
Tue Jul 11, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18
Replies: 1851
Views: 123943

Re: Official 747-8 Flight Tracking/Production Part 18

I would expect someone saw the frame go into the paint hangar in the last 48 hours to get wrapped. Can't be KAL's last 747-8 as that would have a blue tail. Could be ABC's latest bird, but it is not due for delivery until September. UPS' birds would have a brown tail and they are not due until Septe...

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by Stitch
Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ANA starts A380 marketing campaigns
Replies: 102
Views: 27590

Re: ANA starts A380 marketing campaigns

Given that TYO-HNL is, by far, the largest Japan-US market, the 380 seems perfectly suited for this route. Well at the time the planes were ordered, that market was served by two daily Air Japan (ANA) 767-300ERs and a daily JL 767-300ER and 777-200ER so a high-density leisure A380-800 would about m...

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by Stitch
Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: E-6 Mercury replacement?
Replies: 22
Views: 2018

Re: E-6 Mercury replacement?

The P-8 frame slows that third line a little, so the output is not as high as the other two lines. When Renton switch over to the MAX, the third line will probably be last to switch over, as the P-8 frame will slow the MAX line even more. That is why Boeing will be eager to close out the P-8 line a...

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A350 Production And Delivery Thread Part 17
Replies: 3125
Views: 981648

Re: A350 Production And Delivery Thread Part 17

BOEING777EK wrote:
Does anyone know which airline will take 4 Qatar A350 NTUs?


Airbus themselves don't know that at the moment, so... :shakehead:

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by Stitch
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X - Updated Information And Developments
Replies: 2437
Views: 152397

Re: Boeing 777X - Updated Information And Developments

How much more square footage does a 777-9 have versus an A350-1000? Calculating based on cabin length times cabin width, the 777-9 comes out ahead by around 31 square meters. The 777-9 cabin is around 3 meters longer (what the A350-900 has over the 787-9) so that is around two more rows of Club Wor...

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