Search found 6691 matches

by Polot
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)
Replies: 56
Views: 6683

Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

The most elegant solution: AA's A359 order is converted to 100 A321NEO's AA's 737 Max8 order is converted into 787-8/9/10's to replace the 76's and 77E's. Always a huge fan of simplicity. Lowers training and staffing costs dramatically. Kind of too late for that. Deliveries on AA's Maxes start in a...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)
Replies: 56
Views: 6683

Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

Hi all, Sorry if I sound dense, but I'm confused. Hawaiian's A330 fleet is relatively young. I flew aboard Humu last January, a plane delivered in February of 2015, and the oldest, Iwakeli'i, isn't quite seven years old. Would these prospective A350s/787s be used to replace or to supplement these y...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)
Replies: 56
Views: 6683

Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

I think AA should replace the remaining 763's with 788's since they're already on property. Perhaps the A338neo rumors are there to help AA drive a harder bargain with Boeing If Airbus drives a hard bargain they could impose hefty cancellation penalties on A350s and force them into staying with wid...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)
Replies: 56
Views: 6683

Re: AA may swap 359 for 338, HA could go 787 or 359 (Leeham)

The A358 or 787-9 always seemed more appropriate for HA's long haul plans. Well that is why HA selected the A358 in the first place. Granted I think the 788 is still more appropriate than the 789 for HA...the biggest (and really only) problem with the A338 right now for HA is the fact that HA is th...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirFrance/KLM buys significant stake in VS and extends partnership with DL/MU
Replies: 104
Views: 9525

Re: AirFrance/KLM buys significant stake in VS and extends partnership with DL/MU

Atlwarrior wrote:
United has not had that many decades of operations at Heathrow. The airline simply purchased Pan Am slots in the 1990's for $400 million.

And then proceeded to fly there for almost 20 years until DL was allowed in. And of course that purchase gave them access to former Pan Am clientele.

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: It's been fun seeing the small international growth at SLC, what's next?
Replies: 32
Views: 2574

Re: It's been fun seeing the small international growth at SLC, what's next?

WesternA318 wrote:
The A350 could probably do it better. Again, there's the hot & high conditions in summer to think about, and I don't know what the A350's performance is in that case.

The A350's performance would probably be fine. Its size on the other hand...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirFrance/KLM buys significant stake in VS and extends partnership with DL/MU
Replies: 104
Views: 9525

Re: AirFrance/KLM buys significant stake in VS and extends partnership with DL/MU

I always wondered what DL/Skyteam saw in VS. They barely add any cities to the SkyTeam-network they don't already serve. Is it just for the London O&D market? Yes basically. LHR-US is a huge market and DL alone had the worse slice of the pie (BA and VS obviously had hometeam advantage, AA had B...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK mulls 20 additional A380s
Replies: 212
Views: 38479

Re: EK mulls 20 additional A380s

What does this represent? International pax? Total number of pax. That can't be correct. Reading the chart indicates that HND had around 15M total pax in 2015. A quick look at various sites show 75M. Hence my question in the first place . . . That is what I get for just checking NRT. NRT appears to...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: It's been fun seeing the small international growth at SLC, what's next?
Replies: 32
Views: 2574

Re: It's been fun seeing the small international growth at SLC, what's next?

Quick thought: Not international, but I've been wondering if HA might launch SLC with the new 321LRs. I think that DL's decision to restart SLC-OGG next winter is a preemptive strike. (I thought that was the most obvious route for HA to try.) I would love to see HA get creative and respond with som...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK mulls 20 additional A380s
Replies: 212
Views: 38479

Re: EK mulls 20 additional A380s

When I mentioned the notion of a 'flexi/combi' design, I was more thinking of customers specifying the freight/passenger seat mix and where they wanted the bulkheads between passenger and cargo compartments; rather than Airbus. Some operators; (like KL & CX ?); with massive daily freight uplift...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 23172

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

If you have huge loans you can have plenty of cash without earning anything, but the moment people stop loaning you money you run out of cash. No, the moment people stop loaning money you run out of cash after exhausting all your current cash on hand. Nobody is going to stop giving Boeing any money...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 23172

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

That is not always the case. You need cash to buy back shares, not profit. :checkmark: Cash is real. "Profits" can be manipulated by accounting methods to have no real reflection on how much money you actually gained/lost in that quarter. If Boeing ended the program accounting and wrote o...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus to cut A380 production to 8 frames in 2019
Replies: 59
Views: 6439

Re: Airbus to cut A380 production to 8 frames in 2019

How many A380 production lines are there? Could the rate 8 be kept with a single line? If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then this may be a way for Airbus to make a line ready for producing the response (A322/A323) to the Boeing MOM. I believe they wouldn't want to give current A320 ...

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus to cut A380 production to 8 frames in 2019
Replies: 59
Views: 6439

Re: Airbus to cut A380 production to 8 frames in 2019

Dying swan. :( Maybe, maybe not....... We've just had a debate here about how and why the A321 is flourishing in the USA, when that was a 'dying swan' there 10 years ago. The A321 (and 739 trend) you're talking about is multiple U.S. carriers making a move from ~160 seat planes to ~190 seat planes....

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by Polot
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska CEO on Airbus
Replies: 221
Views: 31361

Re: Alaska CEO on Airbus

The question isn't how much more capable the A321neo is over the 737-10 (because yes, the A321neo is more capable than the 737-10). The question is how useful that extra capability is for AS. This is 2880 nm (I just did 3,200 minus 10% to take some consideration into winds and whatnot) from SEA: htt...

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by Polot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska and Virgin America acquisition
Replies: 11
Views: 1111

Re: Alaska and Virgin America acquisition

AA737-823 wrote:
It's like me saying, after I got married, that occupancy of my house increased 50%.
Well, sure it did. I went from living alone to living with a spouse.

:o Not sure your spouse would like be referred to as half a person! ;)

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by Polot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First El Al 787 painted
Replies: 43
Views: 5811

Re: First El Al 787 painted

Vasu wrote:
Have they altered the tail a bit? Looks more "textured" now on the blue parts (think BA's waving flag). Or is it just the way it looks in the photo?

Yes, El Al have added shading/a gradient, enlarged the Star of David, and made it bolder.

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by Polot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK mulls 20 additional A380s
Replies: 212
Views: 38479

Re: EK mulls 20 additional A380s

PW100 wrote:
What does this represent? International pax?

Total number of pax.

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by Polot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: First El Al 787 painted
Replies: 43
Views: 5811

Re: First El Al 787 painted

A388 wrote:
Why do they serve both EWR and JFK?

The market is huge to both NYC and New Jersey.

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by Polot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: IAG orders more A330s for Level
Replies: 37
Views: 9521

Re: IAG orders more A330s for Level

I doubt you would see Level branded planes in any of IAG's major hubs (LHR/LGW/MAD) anytime soon. That would be seen by BA/IB crews as an invasion of their "turf" and a threat to their futures which could create problematic union pushback on the whole Level idea. BA's CEO recently made it ...

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by Polot
Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA 77W at ONT
Replies: 36
Views: 8001

Re: UA 77W at ONT

FX1816 wrote:
The rumor I hear is that they are shooting a commercial for the Olympics. I guess United is a sponsor. I don't know which Olympics. Before anyone jumps on me I work at the tower and this what we've heard.

It would be for the 2018 Winter Olympics held in February.

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 199
Views: 25930

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

One of the most common a.net fallacies is that existing planes must be replaced with new models of the same seat count and capabilities. Sometimes, airlines have been working with a non-ideal product because that was all that was available when they bought. Sometimes, market conditions have changed...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Horizon Air scheduling havoc will continue into the fall
Replies: 55
Views: 4779

Re: Horizon Air scheduling havoc will continue into the fall

Quick question: Why would pilots be gaining hours on Dash 8-300Q / Q300? Horizon flies the Q400... I'm sure familiarization is minimal, but still.... Probably whoever they found to make such an agreement with only has Q300s. The most important thing to QX is that the pilots get the hours necessary ...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 199
Views: 25930

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

[ You are absolutely right. Since 779 is 2-3 years away from EIS, let's look at how 787 was doing2-3 years before EIS. We will find that 787 had 910 orders then (crazy, that's still more than the number of orders A350 has today). Even with that, 777X got only 35% of the number of orders that 787 go...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 199
Views: 25930

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Of course, we need more data before drawing such a conclusion, but I thought this ratio thing is interesting. Of course, a major one being the 787 has been available for sale 225% longer (4 years versus 13) while the total upfront development investment of a program generally depends on the scope o...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 199
Views: 25930

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

[ While I don't disagre with your underlying point, I still find this an very misleading. You can easily turn that around using the same misleading strategy . . . : Also a bit odd when the very sentence he wrote before that is: What is DL doing with their B77Ls? I bet the 787-8, 787-10, A330-800, A...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Horizon Air scheduling havoc will continue into the fall
Replies: 55
Views: 4779

Re: Horizon Air scheduling havoc will continue into the fall

Or they could stop playing games and just increase pay and quality of life to make it a job people want to take. But that's a foreign concept to the union busting types that seem to live on this forum these days. According to everyone here there is a (looming?) pilot shortage. That means airlines a...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK mulls 20 additional A380s
Replies: 212
Views: 38479

Re: EK mulls 20 additional A380s

Emirates is going to end a few airlines in the process. They might tamper the market so much. Imagine a high density config being sent to Sri Lanka. The problem is if EK ends too many airlines, and the wrong ones, then they may find their expansion plans halted by pesky things such as bilateral agr...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: HA adds PDX-OGG, on A321neo
Replies: 47
Views: 5941

Re: HA adds PDX-OGG, on A321

We are beginning to see the effect of the 321 on medium range flights currently flown by 757 and 767 - in the same way the 787 had for hub bypass. Not really, 737s have been flying between the west coast and Hawaii for years now (and more recently A321s), including the dreaded 737-900ER, with no pr...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 199
Views: 25930

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

A330 NEO shows that the single effective improvement was via engine sfc. Maybe you should wait till one flies before asserting this? :stirthepot: The 777x has outsold the A330neo. That could mean that new engine plus new wing is better than just new engine. How about that for pot stirring? The 787 ...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK mulls 20 additional A380s
Replies: 212
Views: 38479

Re: EK mulls 20 additional A380s

ANA could use A380s to e.f. JFK, LAX, LHR, CDG and FRA, competing with JAL's A350-1000s. Most of those will probably be 77W/779 routes. Well right now LHR, CDG, and FRA are impossible for NH/the A380 because they only fly there from HND which doesn't allow A380s at the moment. I don't even know why...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Scoot applies for US service
Replies: 48
Views: 12218

Re: Scoot applies for US service

Why don't they operate non-stop? Unless they have 5th freedom for the Japan-Hawaii segment, in which case it makes sense. The market is simply not big enough. Or the plane is not capable enough. SIN-HNL is 5,800 nm (that is ~1,000 nm more than the flight to ATH) and Scoot's 787s are pretty dense (t...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK mulls 20 additional A380s
Replies: 212
Views: 38479

Re: EK mulls 20 additional A380s

It'd be a brave move to make in an era when the largest customer, EK, is openly concerned about the future of the program and the financial value of its fleet. Almost all their A380s are leased, why would they worry about the financial value? Well its financial value could effect the lease rates of...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Jetblue 2Q17 $211M Profit
Replies: 21
Views: 3920

Re: JBLU 2Q17 $211M Profit

commavia wrote:
* BOS highest-margin focus city

How many "focus cities" does B6 have, two? (BOS and FLL?)

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg: Airbus talking additional A380 orders over with IAG, ANA and TG
Replies: 77
Views: 13204

Re: Airbus talking additional A380 orders over with IAG, ANA and TG

MEX is heavily slot restricted I believe. But beyond that, I think you're right. Plus IB doesn't have First class so those A380s would be at lease 600 seaters, a huuuuuge jump in capacity... Or maybe a wise way of keeping DY far from MAD. Losing some yield smashing the Dreamliner if they ever think...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK mulls 20 additional A380s
Replies: 212
Views: 38479

Re: EK mulls 20 additional A380s

The same reason you see so many A380's at ANA's home base today. . Actually you see very few A380s at NRT. As far as I am aware TG (1x daily, other 2 flights A330s) and EK (1x daily) are currently the only regular A380 visitors. SQ no longer sends the A380 to NRT. AF doesn't either, but I don't kno...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 199
Views: 25930

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

Which actually helps Stitch's argument. Why would, and I quote, it "have made a lot of sense for Boeing to make SQ a killer price offer to stop Airbus getting the order and building the A350-2000" when Boeing knows Airbus won't launch a new variant for only 20 orders (just like how Boeing...

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by Polot
Tue Jul 25, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Scoot and TigerAir complete integration, launch 5 new destinations
Replies: 15
Views: 3102

Re: Scoot and TigerAir complete integration, launch 5 new destinations

BestWestern wrote:
The fear of stepping on the toes of SQ long haul is resulting in HNL via Japan routes, which makes no sense at all.

It makes perfect sense. Japan-HNL is a huge market, and I doubt their dense 787s could make it to HNL nonstop.

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.
Replies: 33
Views: 5012

Re: Operational Weak Spots of the Airbus A321NEO/LR.

I'm not certain it was Glen who had the idea but the capability was born from granting ETOPS certification in the 1980's. Most airlines had bought the 757 as a 727 replacement so there was no real thought into using it transatlantic. As the CO EWR hub grew that's when it started but I'm not sure if...

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Norwegian 4th 787 engine shutdown in 2 months
Replies: 8
Views: 1672

Re: Norwegian 4th 787 engine shutdown in 2 months

Elementalism wrote:
May 20th sounds like a bird strike. June 11th and 16th sound legit. July 22nd sounds like a false alarm.

June 11th and July 16th were also the same aircraft (although it doesn't say if it was the same engine that failed).

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MIA/DFW: Most Dominated Large Airports in the USA
Replies: 39
Views: 5718

Re: MIA/DFW: Most Dominated Large Airports in the USA

Elementalism wrote:
I'm pleasantly surprised DL only has 50% of MSP traffic. Means we have some healthy competition.

Well that is Sun Country for you, whose traffic is dominated by MSP point of sale.

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MIA/DFW: Most Dominated Large Airports in the USA
Replies: 39
Views: 5718

Re: MIA/DFW: Most Dominated Large Airports in the USA

Well when a lot of the low[er] fare local market is heading to FLL/DAL it is no surprise the hub airline at the larger airport has such a high percentage.

Looking at markets as a whole, and not individual airports, would tell a more interesting story.

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order
Replies: 199
Views: 25930

Re: Leeham: LH shows indications to reduce 779 order

No. Pretty sure the exit limit of the 777-9 is caped at 440 so maybe 10 extra seats this way plus it doesn't solve the weight deficit plus it make an aircraft that is arguably hard to fill even bigger and harder to fill. If you are assuming that a normally configured 777-9 has ~430 seats in it then...

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Level to USA
Replies: 25
Views: 4028

Re: Level to USA

SCQ83 wrote:
Polot wrote:
I'm sure it is only a matter of time before we see Level in FLL though.


Iberia already flies BCN-MIA (TATL JV)


Level is not sticking solely to BCN long term.

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Level to USA
Replies: 25
Views: 4028

Re: Level to USA

Level is to go against Norwegian and that's why they went for Oakland and Los Angeles.They then picked Punta Cana and Buenos Aires as they were popular destinations from Barcelona and Punta Cana wasn't served. Buenos Aires was selected because DY will be flying there next year (albeit not from BCN,...

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: CSeries - Flight Testing And Production Thread (Part 2)
Replies: 1615
Views: 154454

Re: CSeries - Flight Testing And Production Thread (Part 2)

IIRC the biggest issue with Bombardier's support is that is heavily concentrated in the US (because that is where most of the CRJs are) and to a lesser extent Europe. If they want the C Series to be a success Bombardier needs to boost their worldwide support network. Having great American support is...

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by Polot
Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Level to USA
Replies: 25
Views: 4028

Re: Level to USA

I'm sure it is only a matter of time before we see Level in FLL though.

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by Polot
Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359
Replies: 151
Views: 19737

Re: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359

We are. Boeing is in active discussions with airlines regarding the MOM/797 (they didn't bring it up at the Paris Air Show for the hell of it), as is Airbus in terms of a response. I guarantee you that one customer that Boeing/Airbus are talking to in regards to what they would like as an ideal TAT...

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by Polot
Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359
Replies: 151
Views: 19737

Re: How many A330NEO will DL convert to A359

...ordering more A330neos, 797, or A322 ). Sorry, I thought we were talking about real world... We are. Boeing is in active discussions with airlines regarding the MOM/797 (they didn't bring it up at the Paris Air Show for the hell of it), as is Airbus in terms of a response. I guarantee you that o...

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by Polot
Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ben Franklin to adorn the tail of a Norwegian 737 MAX
Replies: 34
Views: 4121

Re: Ben Franklin to adorn the tail of a Norwegian 737 MAX

Most Americans associate the name with the fact that he's on the $100 bill. Because of that, his name is used more frequently than other founding fathers, and therefore often shortened from Benjamin to Ben. Ironically $100 is referred to more often as "Benjamins" and not "Bens."...

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