Search found 5993 matches

by ScottB
Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AUS to become a Delta Focus City
Replies: 241
Views: 23459

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

given the option between a legacy like DL and WN, most business pax will go DL unless the cost is astronomically different. Most of them like upgrades, lounge access, power outlets, assigned seats, etc. That has already been demonstrated to be false in Austin. WN is the leading carrier in share in ...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AUS to become a Delta Focus City
Replies: 241
Views: 23459

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

I have a good source with the architectural/engineering firm that has been chosen by the airport for the expansion and it is certain that as soon as the 9-gate expansion is complete, work will begin immediately on a much larger expansion that could bring an additional 20-40 gates to the airport in ...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 22, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: China-US Air Pax Traffic Data for 2017 by Airport-Pair and Load Factor: A Cold Hard Look
Replies: 29
Views: 3922

Re: China-US Air Pax Traffic Data for 2017 by Airport-Pair and Load Factor: A Cold Hard Look

HNL-PEK is surprisingly bad. Poor performance for HNL-PEK isn't at all surprising. Business ties are very weak and it's a crummy tourism market because Chinese nationals must have a visa to enter the U.S. (the converse is also true but I expect tourism from Hawaii to China to be near-negligible). T...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why no JFK/LGA-BDL service?
Replies: 63
Views: 4382

Re: Why no JFK/LGA-BDL service?

Driving from the Hartford area to the NYC airports is generally awful too with traffic, making it a 3+ hour drive. Not to mention parking around the NYC airports being exorbitantly expensive. I've taken BDL-EWR several times on an A320 and B737, always full and nicely timed to hit the very early co...

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by ScottB
Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AUS to become a Delta Focus City
Replies: 241
Views: 23459

Re: AUS to become a Delta Focus City

I’ve said before and I’ll say it again that DL would win out in any “war” with WN over AUS because most of the business community would prefer DL, due to the greater connectivity and international flights DL offers. Also, a DL focus city could help land KE down the road. If that were true, AA or UA...

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by ScottB
Thu Jun 21, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates
Replies: 324
Views: 27081

Re: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates

Regardless of what you think of my source landing fees at Love Field were kept artificially low for too long. The first paragraph points out that landing fees at the airport had not changed since 1987? The airport was operating at a deficit. The city council only raised the landing fees enough to m...

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by ScottB
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates
Replies: 324
Views: 27081

Re: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates

Subsection (b) of Section 3 of Article I of the 5-party agreement says that "If the existing carriers are not able or are not willing to accommodate the new entrant service, then the City of Dallas agrees to require the sharing of preferential lease gates, pursuant to Dallas' existing lease ag...

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by ScottB
Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Did DL, UA, or AA Ever Come Close To Ordering The A380 or 748?
Replies: 40
Views: 7113

Re: Did DL, UA, or AA Ever Come Close To Ordering The A380 or 748?

IMHO, NW and UA bought 747-400s for range. Once CO demonstrated 777-200ERs could fly EWR-HKG it was all over: multi-hub U.S. carriers distribute passengers into smaller increments of demand. It wasn't just about range. A quarter century ago, the bilateral air service agreements, in particular with ...

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by ScottB
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B6 AUS-JFK Diversion to RDU
Replies: 3
Views: 989

Re: B6 Diversion

https://imgur.com/a/Y1EJPEA The flight was from IAH to JFK (I think). I know it departed from IAH. From the image you posted, it looks more like a departure from AUS. Definitely AUS: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/JBU1094/history/20180619/1727Z/KAUS/KRDU Not sure why they went to RDU given tha...

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by ScottB
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 137
Views: 22674

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

a lot of people have the wallet for it. As we are getting to the 20+ hour long flights, many people want to rest up so they can get off the plane and go to do whatever it is they want to go do in that far away place. No, not that many people in the grand scheme of things are willing to pay the cost...

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by ScottB
Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AS announces SMF-KOA
Replies: 51
Views: 4547

Re: AS announces SMF-KOA

Can a self called 'low-fare leader' succeed in a market that is primarily leisure with expensive hotels as the only option for visitors? I would imagine that the choice of passengers to overwhelmingly purchase economy class, rather than business class, tickets to Hawaii would indicate "yes.&qu...

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by ScottB
Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PSA Cancelations
Replies: 46
Views: 7273

Re: PSA Cancelations

Unless you dig in, there is no difference between AA and PSA. Even if you dig in, there's really no difference between AA & PSA. PSA is a wholly-owned subsidiary of American Airlines Group and operates exclusively on American Airlines' behalf, on schedules chosen by American, with equipment cho...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FLL to close runway for 6 months in 2019
Replies: 39
Views: 5786

Re: FLL to close runway for 6 months in 2019

This seems like a bad time to do it with the bloodbath going on down there between WN, NK, and B6. Actually that's really the best possible time to do it. Traffic to FLL drops off in May and reaches its nadir in September & October before recovering for Thanksgiving. There's another shorter dro...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus does not believe in continuing deliveries to Iran
Replies: 93
Views: 14835

Re: Airbus does not believe in continuing deliveries to Iran

Ten years from now, possibly sooner, this where they Chinese/Russian wide body consortium steps in and fills the embargo gaps. I'm also wondering if Iran itself won't have a commercial aircraft company up and running within a ten year stretch. And the total available global market for widebody sale...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Dornier 328/328Jet to be back in manufacturing
Replies: 33
Views: 5399

Re: Dornier 328/328Jet to be back in manufacturing

There's a lot of remote places on this planet where either a > 50 seater is complete overkill or where the airstrip itself can't handle an aircraft of that size. This is true; however, for those markets, new aircraft have to compete with inexpensive used aircraft, and the lower fuel expenses of a n...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Sichuan Airlines applies for Boston service
Replies: 46
Views: 3380

Re: Sichuan Airlines applies for Boston service

Coming in at midnight, getting through customs at 1, then sitting around Logan airport for 5 or 6 hours for a morning flight somewhere? Yeah. No. I wouldn't do it either unless it were ridiculously cheap... but then that's probably how they'll manage to sell tickets. And keep in mind that the time ...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Sichuan Airlines applies for Boston service
Replies: 46
Views: 3380

Re: Sichuan Airlines applies for Boston service

Predicting a LF of 6% I think the load factor will be higher, but mostly due to 3U dumping cheap connections over their hub. A coworker of mine flew HU from BOS to CAN, connecting at PEK with a 14-hour overnight layover -- very inconvenient but he was flying home to visit and it was cheap. What are...

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by ScottB
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA suspends Managua
Replies: 4
Views: 1589

Re: AA suspends Managua

LAXintl wrote:
Due to the ongoing civil unrest in Managua, Nicaragua, AA has suspended its MIA-MGA service.


Just as a clarification, AA has only suspended the night flight from MIA to MGA; I imagine this is primarily to protect their crews as that aircraft and crew overnight at MGA.

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by ScottB
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What is BA's strategy to hold market share at slot congested Heathrow?
Replies: 30
Views: 4037

Re: What is BA's strategy to hold market share at slot congested Heathrow?

In my life the opposite is true. I need to travel tomorrow and expect to pay full freight. But...the plane is full. Usually the high paying passengers are the last to buy not the first. But it's the job of the airline's revenue management team to anticipate passengers like you. They do tend to hold...

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by ScottB
Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Status of DL mainline at SHV
Replies: 13
Views: 1553

Re: Status of DL mainline at SHV

Flights are typically 30-50% cheaper out of DAL, DFW, IAH, HOU...not sure why operating costs are so high at SHV, it's a pretty sleepy joint. DAL is a 3 hour drive away. Hardly insignificant, on a R/T adds 6-7 hours of travel time plus parking fees/hotel if needed. Fares are high at SHV due to a ge...

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by ScottB
Mon Jun 04, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What is BA's strategy to hold market share at slot congested Heathrow?
Replies: 30
Views: 4037

Re: What is BA's strategy to hold market share at slot congested Heathrow?

in reality if an airline operates a route daily and the average load factor is 85% the daily load factor will likely vary between 100% and 70%. The variation will depend very much on the type of route , holiday routes see greater weekend demand, business routes see greater outbound demand at the be...

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by ScottB
Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What is BA's strategy to hold market share at slot congested Heathrow?
Replies: 30
Views: 4037

Re: What is BA's strategy to hold market share at slot congested Heathrow?

The introduction of Hand Baggage Only fares, Buy on Board catering and further densification of the A320/A321 aircraft would suggest the opposite. Their aim is not to cede too much market share to EasyJet; they've made that mistake before! Nah, these moves are all back-door price increases rather t...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Further Industry Consolidation? Wall Street Thinks So
Replies: 3
Views: 972

Re: Further Industry Consolidation? Wall Street Thinks So

Not that I'm a fan of further industry consolidation, but I'm fairly well-convinced (and I've said this before) that the next deal will be WN buying B6. It's the easiest "big" deal to get past regulators given the limited overlap between the carriers. The only likely concessions, if any, w...

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by ScottB
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Antitrust question about Southwest and Alaska?
Replies: 12
Views: 1606

Re: Anti Trust question with Southwest?

in the same announcement, WN is getting something from AS, and giving AS less competition at an important post merger hub, that AS would probably like to strengthen. If there was a tit-for-tat conversation had between the airlines, that would technically be illegal. Even if it is logically in both ...

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by ScottB
Thu May 31, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The A380 from a Part-Out perspective.
Replies: 33
Views: 5053

Re: The A380 from a Part-Out perspective.

The fact that part demand is weak is not super surprising, but that 4-6 planes were offered for parts (one company got offered 2, another 4 but that might have included 2 planes offered to other company) and were still turned down is somewhat surprising. That suggests the perceived value (by owners...

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by ScottB
Fri May 11, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus to announce decision on selling planes to Iran over the coming days
Replies: 190
Views: 22027

Re: Airbus to announce decision on selling planes to Iran over the coming cays

I mean if American government are jealous that Airbus are able to make profit from American technology at all, then why not cut off all the supply to Airbus instead of just those that are specific for Iran? The American government isn't "jealous" of Airbus making profits on sales to Iran....

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by ScottB
Fri May 11, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus to announce decision on selling planes to Iran over the coming days
Replies: 190
Views: 22027

Re: Airbus to announce decision on selling planes to Iran over the coming cays

The first is to look at arrangements to bypass the sanctions. So perhaps, selling the aircraft to an EU lessor not exposed to the US and seeing them wet-leased on. Those sorts of schemes don't work because U.S. sanctions typically also cover transactions which are intended to skirt direct transacti...

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by ScottB
Thu May 10, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Southwest entry into Hawaii speed up merger discussions of HA with B6
Replies: 72
Views: 7533

Re: Will Southwest entry into Hawaii speed up merger discussions of HA with B6

I also think Google is to big Facebook has to much influence And I think Amazon is crazy big Guess I’m not a fan of a select group of companies having a huge market share. While they might not take advantage of it now there is no telling what they could do in the future. You're probably right about...

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by ScottB
Thu May 10, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Southwest entry into Hawaii speed up merger discussions of HA with B6
Replies: 72
Views: 7533

Re: Will Southwest entry into Hawaii speed up merger discussions of HA with B6

The buyer for B6 will be WN. It is the deal with the least overlap between the players, and it gives WN a presence in the geography in which it is weakest. The mismatch in the fleets is easily resolved over the space of 5-7 years with new deliveries. And it will probably undergo as much scrutiny fr...

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by ScottB
Thu May 10, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Southwest entry into Hawaii speed up merger discussions of HA with B6
Replies: 72
Views: 7533

Re: Will Southwest entry into Hawaii speed up merger discussions of HA with B6

I would not be surprised. Look the idea of JetBlue and organic growth ended when they tried to buy VA. They are obviously open to something. Before anyone says the last thing we need is more mergers that’s almost exactly what we need. The government let the big guys get way to big and to compete th...

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by ScottB
Wed May 09, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA drops ORD-PEK
Replies: 205
Views: 23716

Re: AA drops ORD-PEK

What we do know is that PEK is costing a lot more to operate given the large amount of time the aircraft is sitting on the ground for, net against the additional flight time to PVG. This cost of the additional fuel for the additional stage length is probably $10 to $12k (say 6,000kg, given that the...

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by ScottB
Wed May 09, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA drops ORD-PEK
Replies: 205
Views: 23716

Re: AA drops ORD-PEK

Large airlines, particularly ones like AA and United that choose to financing nearly all their aircraft on their own balance sheet, are judged more by financial markets on the return on assets than anything else. When you're looking at $200 million plus for a B787-8 or $300 million plus for a B777-...

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by ScottB
Tue May 08, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue plans move of MEX slots from LAX to BOS&JFK
Replies: 31
Views: 3878

Re: JetBlue plans move of MEX slots from LAX to BOS&JFK

I think B6 will have an easier time on BOS given the amount of competition at JFK. And they will have feeds at BOS. Apart from some connections from foreign carrier code shares, who would connect at BOS to travel to MEX? It's completely out-of-the-way for any market B6 serves from BOS, apart from m...

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by ScottB
Tue May 08, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: F9 announces yet more new routes
Replies: 66
Views: 7190

Re: F9 announces yet more new routes

Take JAX-STL. If F9 grew demand by 50% - pretty reasonable, and I'd expect more - and had a market share of 80% (non-stop providers always has a much higher share), that'd mean weekly pax each way of 431, split across 2x weekly... Non-stop helps, but 2x weekly doesn't work for passengers who aren't...

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by ScottB
Tue May 08, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates
Replies: 324
Views: 27081

Re: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates

A great deal of what will happen at DAL will be affected by Texas Central. https://www.texascentral.com/life-on-the-fast-train/ WN's biggest milk-runs are between DAL-HOU, DAL-AUS obviously will be greatly affected by this. DAL-HOU would see an impact, but DAL-AUS would not. The closest Texas Centr...

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by ScottB
Tue May 08, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: F9 announces yet more new routes
Replies: 66
Views: 7190

Re: F9 announces yet more new routes

enilria wrote:
Not sure all those JAX routes will work.


Especially starting in August. Not much tourism demand to Florida until Thanksgiving. Plus the Midwesterners go to the Gulf Coast.

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by ScottB
Mon May 07, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates
Replies: 324
Views: 27081

Re: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates

Are you comparing just Y fares? If not your data is painting an fake picture With three classes of service Delta *should* have a higher average fare than Southwest. The fare comparison is in the aggregate, but it still doesn't change the fact that Delta isn't competing based on fares. They may be c...

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by ScottB
Mon May 07, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates
Replies: 324
Views: 27081

Re: Dallas says it has a plan to resolve Southwest-Delta fight for Love Field gates

I still wonder if you consider DAL and DFW the same market? If yes, this is the same market - then 100% single operator at DAL is a non-issue, as DFW is just a few miles away. I think that if we look at pricing data for non-stop markets from both airports, it would appear that the two are effective...

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by ScottB
Mon May 07, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WN leases slots from AS at LGA/DCA
Replies: 136
Views: 12916

Re: WN leases slots from AS at LGA/DCA

AC currently has a gate all to themselves and I doubt they want to move to share with AS and UA. One small advantage to a move would be lounge access for Plus members. B is also a heck of a lot nicer and far more convenient to the Metro station. AS is only giving up 4 flights a day and probably sti...

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by ScottB
Thu May 03, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: North Korea requests opening of new international air routes and shows willingness to open its FIR to South Korea
Replies: 41
Views: 7436

Re: North Korea requests opening of new international air routes and shows willingness to open its FIR to South Korea

But flights between Pyongyang and Seoul makes perfect sense once there are significant business cooperation between the two countries. Business folks will not want to drive between the two destinations for business most of the time. That's like saying it doesn't make sense to fly between SEL and Da...

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by ScottB
Wed May 02, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency
Replies: 24
Views: 2635

Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

I think for SJC to really give SFO a run for its money they have to convince one of the big 3 US carriers to operate there at least on a focus city level. This would likely be American. With a big 3 US carrier and Alaska there, international carriers would be much more incentivized to go to SJC as ...

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by ScottB
Tue May 01, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency
Replies: 24
Views: 2635

Re: Air China to reduce Shanghai Pudong-San Jose frequency

As someone who lives halfway between SFO and SJC, I use both airports. It would be great if SJC had more international flights but I can see why it struggles relative to SFO. Unless you live south of the Dumbarton Bridge (Menlo Park on the peninsula, or Fremont in the East Bay), SFO will be as conv...

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by ScottB
Tue May 01, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: China Airlines announces TPE-ONT service
Replies: 301
Views: 39328

Re: China Airlines announces TPE-ONT service

MAH4546 wrote:
As I mentioned on another thread, I had heard, reliably, that the route will be discontinued in October.


Clearly this is because LAWA has been trying to sabotage ONT

/s

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by ScottB
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Venezuela demands payment for jet fuel in Petros
Replies: 90
Views: 10621

Re: Venezuela demands payment for jet fuel in Petros

MIA-CCS-MIA is ~2360nm roundtrip and AA uses both the 738 and 757 on the route. It might be too far for the 738 to tanker (although winds are less of an issue because route is north south, and maybe the Max will be fine?), but I would think AA could tanker with the 757 if needed. Or they could add ...

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by ScottB
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?
Replies: 151
Views: 15530

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

As for LGB, it's possible that 5 a day schedule to 3 airport works. Again, the OAK numbers are not encouraging, but maybe that will change with time. I would imagine B6 will exit OAK/SJC in another year. So that might help WN slightly there. As I'd mentioned before, the key advantage WN would have ...

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by ScottB
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?
Replies: 151
Views: 15530

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

I would see WN taking a few slots but not all. They wouldn’t want to cannibalize the LAX and SNA markets I’d imagine. SNA especially since it is regulated not only by slots but also by seats. I believe if they aren’t filling seats on flights at SNA the under performing slots get allocated back into...

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by ScottB
Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?
Replies: 151
Views: 15530

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

Come on! “Al la wn style”? They fly an airplane with a heart on it and only give out peanuts and water in a can! Yeah I think any other airline has no problem, especially B6, who are actually loved by lgb community, sans the nimby’s, can top the meager “a la wn style” service. As opposed to the all...

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by ScottB
Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?
Replies: 151
Views: 15530

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

WN could easily eliminate 2 SJC, 2 PHX, 2 LAS flights from LAX shifting them down to LGB. WN wouldn't do that; one of their key value propositions at LAX is frequent service to high-demand short-haul markets. Moving those flights to LGB would be inviting the competition to take those passengers. An...

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by ScottB
Fri Apr 27, 2018 4:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?
Replies: 151
Views: 15530

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

United I bet won't bid, although this is a once in a lifetime shot maybe at getting enough to offer frequency to make it work. They could get probably 3-4 for SFO which is a minimum needed. United could start service to SFO even without the newly freed-up mainline slots; the CRJ-700 and smaller can...

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by ScottB
Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?
Replies: 151
Views: 15530

Re: Who will fill LGB 12 open slots in September?

We will see if it works, but even if WN gets majority of the 11 slots. let's say they can do 15 flights a day split between OAK/SMF/LAS, that still leads to a very weak schedule compared to their presence in every other airport. And SNA will still attract the higher yielding crowd. I don't see LGB ...

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