Considering the backlogs of those models I'm not so sure that would help much. The industry seems to need the production capacity of the 777X as well. At the moment anyway. True , you are probably not getting an a35K or 78X before 2026 anyway and we are talking about a reduction in capacity of over...
Jump to postAlthough I think it really low likelihood as well that Sergeant gets replaced mid-season, if you are Vowles you also to have to be thinking about your position in the constructers championship. Who would have a higher likelihood of scoring points? Sergeant or Antonelli? Success in lower/other formu...
Jump to postThere's no doubt Mercedes have been successful under Toto Wolff's tenure, but I think at times their success was in spite of his presence, especially in the period 2014-2016 when everyone else were making up the numbers like they are now with Red Bull. The work to create a killer hybrid engine that...
Jump to postThe main buzz today seems to be around Sainz's options. https://www-funoanalisitecnica-com.translate.goog/2024/04/contratto-mercedes-sainz-f1.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp is an interesting source. It says there is an offer on the table from Audi, but it h...
Jump to postMost of the correspondents referred to the Merc position as being a seat warmer for Kimi, and as above there's not a lot of confidence that Merc is going to turn things around any time soon. Meanwhile we see a clear path to a F1 seat for a guy who hasn't even won a F2 race yet. It's strange how luc...
Jump to postOne thing I found interesting: "(Alonso) readily admitted when asked by The Race that talks with other teams had taken place" ( ref: https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/fernando-alonso-new-aston-martin-f1-contract-six-reasons-why/ ). He said AM showed a clear interest in him whereas the ot...
Jump to postMeanwhile multiple sources are reporting Alonso has re-signed with AM through the end of '26. Here's a release from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/68793179 His recent comments in support of AM were hints that this was coming, IMO. Good news for Kimi Antonelli, IMO, one obstacle removed. Al...
Jump to postTK - wasn’t Turkish supposed to do a massive Boeing order like the Airbus order? Maybe I’m misremembering. Either way, I don’t think it’s far-fetched it is TK and 20 seems like a reasonable start if TK wanted the 777X in addition to the A350s. Could be 9 or F. https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/tu...
Jump to postBoeing posts 113 New Orders in March American Airlines, 85 737 MAX Ethiopian, 8 777X Unidentified, 20 777X https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/09/business/boeing-orders-deliveries/index.html Customer Breakdown - On this website - go to Orders Report and select for March https://www.boeing.com/commercial#or...
Jump to postBoeing posts 113 New Orders in March American Airlines, 85 737 MAX Ethiopian, 8 777X Unidentified, 20 777X https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/09/business/boeing-orders-deliveries/index.html Customer Breakdown - On this website - go to Orders Report and select for March https://www.boeing.com/commercial#ord...
Jump to postGiven the not so great backlog in Boeing Military and Space and projected Cash flow - if they could sell it to a smaller player - and get $20-30B for it and use it to retire debt that would not be a bad idea. Allow them to focus on commercial. Finish out the tanker program and maybe partner with who...
Jump to postTo me it looks like RUS over reacted and crashed. He doesn’t get very close to ALO, maybe a couple of car lengths. If I remember correctly, the announcer thought RUS got into dirty air and lost it. vid and what they two said about it https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/russell-and-alonso-off...
Jump to postYou lost me with the armored tilt rotor for CAS. How much strafing have you done? 3.2 seconds is not a short as you think it is from my A-10 and F-100 strafe experience. Me too - armoured tilt rotor = very big target. A small remote operated stealthy drone/Helicopter could be a much better way to go.
Jump to postThat's fine for the large widebody segment, replacing 744Fs. There is a need for smaller widebodies and the massive wingspan of thte A330 will cause huge problems at FX and UPS having to redo all of their gates . How would a hypothetical 787F help in this instance considering the 787 and A330 have ...
Jump to postDidn't they say they were expecting to burn through $4-4.5 billion cash in Q1 alone? Yes - and not that unusual (but a little more extreme than normal)) - they use more cash in the beginning of the year and generate more in the remainder of the year. So what was the figure for Q1 2023? As stated ab...
Jump to postThat's the best case scenario. Did Boeing have anything go best case, or at least optimistic case, any time within past few years? No - but at some point things will change. Humans always want to extrapolate the recent past into the future indefinitely whereas in reality things change more often th...
Jump to postWell. Maybe https://www.airport-technology.com/news/boeing-faces-downgrade-from-credit-ratings-agency-moodys/ OK - you meant Cash flow - not cash. That makes more sense. Most analysts see about the same or a little more (about $1.5B for 2024) and $6.5B in FCF next year (2025), before climbing to $8...
Jump to postAnd possible credit rating lowered in 2024 with only $1B cash (if nothing happens, of course) They had $16B of cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet as of Dec 31. What are you referring too? https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/2023-12-Dec-31-8K-PR-Ex-99-1.pdf D...
Jump to postAnd possible credit rating lowered in 2024 with only $1B cash (if nothing happens, of course) They had $16B of cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet as of Dec 31. What are you referring too? https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/2023-12-Dec-31-8K-PR-Ex-99-1.pdf W...
Jump to postBoeing already have a new freighter under development, the 77X-8F. It will, probably, enter service in 2028. Are you suggesting that Boeing use their limited resources to run two new freighter programs simultaneously? I think Boeing needs to focus on: 1) production and quality control, and 2) resea...
Jump to postBringBackMunoz wrote:Moving the HQ back to the PNW would help a lot, but what about the quality issues in Charleston?
I'm somewhat surprised 787 LN4 wasn't used for this purpose, rather than scrapping it. I'm sure Boeing could scrounge up another of the TerribleTeens to try, they'd at least be a touch closer to production spec. Maybe the Crystal Cruises one? In any case, I think the time is almost right to look in...
Jump to postFAA and regulators wouldn't even let Boeing begin to develop this until their many issues are sorted I started this by saying - after they are sorted - what does a new CEO do to signal they are in the business of developing new models. A single aisle replacement is probably even farther into the fu...
Jump to postThe other possible new product launch would be an 365T 777-10. After having certified 779 and 778F - it would be relatively easy to keep the team together and offer that as well. The 777 backlog is quite healthy. Some way want to upgrade -9 to -10 for later year deliveries which brings in some extra...
Jump to postThen if one doesn't think it's time for 787F. What is it time for - what is the next model that helps change the conversation for the next CEO? Re-engine or refresh the 787 with GE9X tech in the engines? 737 is done in terms of new models. 777-8/8F/and 9 will be new. I can't see them proceeding with...
Jump to postYes, Boeing needs to get through its current certification and quality issues. However once through and when there is a new CEO is in place, and assuming TBW needs more time to be certain it's good to go - what is the short term program announcement that a new CEO can make to say - we are still in t...
Jump to postMost airliners tend to eventually see their larger variants become more popular. In fact, it seems to have happened to all major modern widebodies I can think of (well, those that have more than one size variant)... 767, 787, 777, A340, A330. The longer variants always seem to win out. Cough. 767-4...
Jump to postFrom the time of Launching the 787 to the MAX disasters - excepting for the 767, the whole product line was renewed/refreshed. 787-8,9,10 747-8/8F 737-7,8,9,10 777-8/9 That's an incredible number of projects to work on in basically a 15 year period of time. One could argue - given the outcome - tha...
Jump to postShareholder Equity is on the liability side of the balance sheet - if it is higher there must be an offset on the asset side - in this case Cash. No. Debt can be replaced with equity. Not only does one not need to grow the balance sheet. By paying the deferred production costs with equity the balan...
Jump to postThe funny thing about balance sheets is that they must balance. If they didn't do any share buybacks (lets ignore Deferred Production Cost - as there is no actual cash cost to reduce that, it only affects reported earnings), yes total Equity would be higher but there would be a corresponding entry ...
Jump to postLooking back, clean sheets would have been much better than warming over 747-8 and 777-9 that became "only" new generations at the price of clean sheets. Yes both programs were unnecessary - as many on here believed (me being one) - stretching the 787 with a new wing/wingbox/engines to -1...
Jump to postSome years have passed and here I am discussing with morrisond again about Boeing's reports. Q4-2023, ending December 2023: Total assets are 137 billion, total liabilities 154,2 billion. Equity is negative, -17,2 billion. Deferred production costs of the 787 program decreased in one year from 12,7 ...
Jump to postThis is incorrect - The programme Accounting increases earnings in the early years by applying calculated average cost to produce those frames (averaged over the block of frames they expect to produce with all the learnings and rate increases etc) and not the actual costs of those expensive to prod...
Jump to postThe problem with buybacks I see is that they invested money they better should have used for research on the next programs. Senior mgt. might be tempted to prefer stock buybacks as their year end bonus might depend on the stock. This is what financial guys on top will do instead of engineers. If yo...
Jump to postSome years have passed and here I am discussing with morrisond again about Boeing's reports. Q4-2023, ending December 2023: Total assets are 137 billion, total liabilities 154,2 billion. Equity is negative, -17,2 billion. Deferred production costs of the 787 program decreased in one year from 12,7 ...
Jump to postPut it this way - if they hadn't bought back any stock in those years - they would have had close to $100B in cash on the balance sheet. Would that have been a good idea? It could have come in handy with what subsequently happened - but they had no real need to keep it and didn't indebt the company...
Jump to postYeah you are right, why would a company that is in the business of developing products that cost tens of Billions to develop have couple of billions in their war chest…? :/ Because they were generating more than enough every year to fund that as well. No real need to save up for it as development t...
Jump to postIf this sort of transaction (Boeing buying Spirit) does come to pass, there will be an interesting power dynamic that would develop. In principle, Airbus can sit down and friendly talk to Boeing "OK, you buy our supplier, here's how we carve it up, so we end with pieces that feed our supply sy...
Jump to postNo - they had at least that much FCF in those years and with program accounting it gets very weird. One cannot pretend that all the 737,747,777 and 787 developments in those years didn't happen either. In 2018 Boeing had $12,6B FCF. They spend $9,0B on stock buybacks and $3,9B on dividend. So, they...
Jump to postIn 2018 Boeing had $12,6B FCF. They spend $9,0B on stock buybacks and $3,9B on dividend. So, they were spending more on shareholders value then they had cash in flow… It could have been from Cash on hand as well, which they thought they might not have needed as MAX came into full production, 787 pr...
Jump to postAccording to the source in the article Boeing apparently used deposits for future deliveries for stock buyback: https://prospect.org/environment/make-passengers-safer-boeing-just-made-shareholders-richer./ $6.8 billion in 2015, $7.0 billion in 2016, $9.2 billion in 2017, and $9.0 billion in 2018. S...
Jump to postIn the three best years of Boeing pre -max they had $8.9, $9.2 and $12.6B of free cash flow from 2016-2018 respectively. Analysts (even after all the recent the recent events) are predicting that they get back to about $6.5B in 2025 and $8.5 in 2026 and with 777-8/9 hopefully contributing after, go...
Jump to postThere are suggestions in the press that Boeing is looking to cut Spirit's ties with Airbus, if it takes over Spirit. How would that work? Spirit is a major supplier to Airbus and It would take Airbus a long time to establish replacement production lines elsewhere. Boeing is unlikely interested in t...
Jump to postAccording to the source in the article Boeing apparently used deposits for future deliveries for stock buyback: https://prospect.org/environment/make-passengers-safer-boeing-just-made-shareholders-richer./ $6.8 billion in 2015, $7.0 billion in 2016, $9.2 billion in 2017, and $9.0 billion in 2018. S...
Jump to postIndeed. My worry though is that the wall street types who inevitably pick the board of directors still want it to be a company focused on financial engineering - just without the current issues. IMO anyone on the board who doesn't see the current issues as a direct consequence of a change in manage...
Jump to postLarry Culp with GE Engines If he is not an acolyte of Jack Welch, I'll consider it. Pat Shanahan with Spirit AeroSystems If Boeing ends up buying back Spirit Wichita, they could get Pat as part of the deal. Getting Pat could be a great thing. Some of the analysts like that idea, and also like Culp....
Jump to postA clear choice was made when Mulally was passed over for CEO. The choice was made to make Boeing a company focused on shareholder value instead of being a great engineering company. Indeed. My worry though is that the wall street types who inevitably pick the board of directors still want it to be ...
Jump to postThey so much should have done those Yellowstone projects. Especially after all the lessons learned with the 787-8 and 787-9. They were finally good to go. Doing the rewinged 777X after the complex new wing experience with the 747-8 was a wrong decision. Sure but what engineers would have worked on ...
Jump to postIt's not time to buy Airbus - it's time for them to make a mega-order for new MAX's at a great price. That will benefit them more in the long run. Probably at a time coincident with Boeing being allowed to increase production again, and Boeing will be looking for a big order to show all is better. T...
Jump to postI think it is not so much a new management Boeing needs the most but more of a new strategy. The investors must greenlight the senior executives to go for some more engineering minded route again and not so much for milking the company without planned major investments while they retire experienced...
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