Search found 7939 matches

by astuteman
Sat Apr 13, 2024 4:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour : a350 ahead in IndiGo widebody race
Replies: 86
Views: 22967

Re: Rumour : a350 ahead in IndiGo widebody race

Check out this recent brokerage report on why they are bullish on 6E: https://images.assettype.com/bloombergquint/2024-03/7f430c2e-e99b-4a7d-9146-1cac36acee20/ICICI_Securities_IndiGo_Company_update.pdf they do expect the Book Value per share to double over next 2 years. another one: https://images....

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by astuteman
Thu Apr 11, 2024 4:09 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: How easy would a A350-2000/1100 be to develop?
Replies: 21
Views: 3087

Re: How easy would a A350-2000/1100 be to develop?

I think the main issue would be the engine to support a greater MTOW. While the wing area could be increased along the same lines as the A359 to A351 there is only so much without n expensive redesign of the wing hence it's likely to be under winged like the 77W and rely on higher trust engines to ...

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by astuteman
Mon Apr 01, 2024 6:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces Board and Management Changes
Replies: 333
Views: 30674

Re: Boeing announces Board and Management Changes

Airbus is not in the aerospace business for shareholder profit, it is for technology and high skill workforce. We need to think the same way, jobs and technology. About time we stopped with this tired old falsehood. Airbus is definitely about shareholder profit - 75% of its shares are privately hel...

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by astuteman
Tue Mar 26, 2024 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CFO: We're not happy with the issues at Boeing
Replies: 67
Views: 11518

Re: Airbus CFO: We're not happy with the issues at Boeing

It's not just about volume anyway. Rather than ramping up production quickly, with all the risks that entails, a slow increase while keeping good profit margins makes far more sense. In this neck of the woods, the pandemic has ripped through the ranks of senior, long term, experienced subject matte...

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by astuteman
Tue Mar 26, 2024 11:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CFO: We're not happy with the issues at Boeing
Replies: 67
Views: 11518

Re: Airbus CFO: We're not happy with the issues at Boeing

If anything , Airbus people should have worked harder to ramp up the production on all their lines and kept the A380 line alive. They are dragging their feet too much, what is taking them so long to ramp up A220, A330neo, A350 production? Boeing is a sitting duck waiting for Airbus to finish it off...

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by astuteman
Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CFO: We're not happy with the issues at Boeing
Replies: 67
Views: 11518

Re: Airbus CFO: We're not happy with the issues at Boeing

If anything , Airbus people should have worked harder to ramp up the production on all their lines and kept the A380 line alive. They are dragging their feet too much, what is taking them so long to ramp up A220, A330neo, A350 production? Boeing is a sitting duck waiting for Airbus to finish it off...

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by astuteman
Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces Board and Management Changes
Replies: 333
Views: 30674

Re: Boeing announces Board and Management Changes

I don’t see Stephanie Pope as the right person to lead BCA and replace Stan Deal. She is an accountant who spent almost all of her career in finance. She also started her career at McDonnell Douglas. Stan Deal, Jim Albaugh and Kevin McAllister are engineers. How did that work for Boeing? I’m not sa...

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by astuteman
Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ryanair's MoL - warming to Airbus ?
Replies: 66
Views: 11788

Re: Ryanair's MoL - warming to Airbus ?

Airbus would be dumb to hold a grudge against Ryanair & MOL, to be honest. Why? 1) They have a full A321N order book for 6 years from customers paying them good margins 2) Freezing O' Leary out works very well to 'pour encourager les autres' nobody is going to pick a fight with Airbus seeing th...

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by astuteman
Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour : a350 ahead in IndiGo widebody race
Replies: 86
Views: 22967

Re: Rumour : a350 ahead in 6E widebody race

It has been quite rapid. They seemingly went from on fire and in crisis to powering on in about 5 months, I think that was as much to do with the new CEO wanting to make his mark verbally when he was probably aware of the direction the company was in before he took over. I may be wrong but doubt yo...

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by astuteman
Fri Mar 22, 2024 6:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

I don't know if this has been posted before, but there's an interview with the Ryanair CEO O'Leary about the situation at Boeing. Fair use excerpts: O’Leary acknowledged that Deal “is a very good sales guy”, but suggested that a different approach might be needed: “What Boeing needs in Seattle is n...

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by astuteman
Wed Mar 20, 2024 11:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Ramp Up Strained As Workers Now Prepare To Strike
Replies: 64
Views: 9722

Re: Airbus A220 Ramp Up Strained As Workers Now Prepare To Strike

RE: A220/Airbus Canada struggling to survive. In my experience employee pay is a rounding error on the bottom line. There is always an "anti-people" sentiment among business leaders though, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see how this plays out. My experience in this sort of busine...

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by astuteman
Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A321XLR Development / Testing / Production / Deliveries - 2024
Replies: 109
Views: 25707

Re: Airbus A321XLR Development / Testing / Production / Deliveries - 2024

BOS-FCO is about 4,100 nm, for that range the payload would be restricted to about 21-22 tonnes. https://epsilonaviation.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/b757_a321lr_a321xlr.jpg https://epsilonaviation.wordpress.com/2019/06/29/what-can-and-cant-the-a321xlr-do/ This chart is deceptive. The slope of the X...

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by astuteman
Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

So I think a gap in passenger capacity between the largest popular single isle passenger jets and the smallest popular twin isle jet will remain significant. Reflecting the significance of the extra cost of providing that extra isle's worth of non revenue earning space. This. The industry needs tho...

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by astuteman
Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Boeing absolutely made the right decision by dropping the 757 and 767, so I'm not criticizing them there, but I am curious to know what the future of the MoM segment looks like. Are we really heading towards a world where there isn't an option between the A321 and the 787-8? The MAX-10 seems like a...

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by astuteman
Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:11 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread
Replies: 18095
Views: 1507312

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

That’s a myth that usually makes US Navy commanders with SSBN experience who have worked with the RN laugh, RN personnel get fed up of hearing. The Command and Control is entirely UK and unique to the UK, no President to ultimately authorize nuclear release, the PM can request the one person that c...

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by astuteman
Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:05 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread
Replies: 18095
Views: 1507312

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

On a side note, the EU is discussing getting nuclear weapons. This discussion is fueled by several high ranking German officials, after Trump made some alarming comments about Nato. Currently, the UK (not in the EU) have their own nukes. France has nukes, used independantly and is not taking part i...

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by astuteman
Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Lots of words there, but actions are more important. Unfortunately too many companies seem to act as if having an appropriate motherhood statement, and prefexing all communications about their accidents with "Safety is at the forefront of everything we do" is an alternative to actually do...

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by astuteman
Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:20 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: The next new Airbus?
Replies: 15
Views: 2362

Re: The next new Airbus?

In my opinion, the only thing that's still missing is a long narrow body to fill the gap between the A321NEO and the A330NEO. Let's call it an A322. It would be similar to the 757-300, a further stretch of the A320-series beyond the A321. The current A321NEO is replacing the 757-200, but what repla...

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by astuteman
Sat Feb 10, 2024 7:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

I think you’re inferring values on the mission statement. Boeing lays out more details if you bothered to look. How we operate Start with engineering excellence A strong engineering foundation enables us to build and maintain our products with safety, quality and integrity in the factory and in ser...

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by astuteman
Sat Feb 10, 2024 4:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

You mean like this: https://www.boeing.com/sustainability/values FYI, Boeing’s mission is to, “protect, connect and explore our world and beyond.” Protect (shareholders value), connect (customers to our bank accounts) and explore our world and beyond (to find more revenue). Pretty healthy objective...

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by astuteman
Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Civil engineers? Of course, dealing with stresses under statics and dynamics, someone has to design aerostructures. Chemical Engineers? Of course, shaping chemical properties to develop new composites, polymers, metal alloys, semiconductors. There are many other disciplines you could add, system en...

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by astuteman
Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

People here seems to casually use the term engineer here but as we all know there are many sorts of engineer - many involved in aircraft production, many not. Are we considering all equal? (For info I have a BSc in Mechanical Engineering) Aeronautical Engineers? Stress Engineers? Civil Engineers? (...

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by astuteman
Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus ramps up work on clean sheet A320 successor
Replies: 73
Views: 14881

Re: Airbus ramps up work on clean sheet A320 successor

cv5880 wrote:
Airbus can smell blood. With Calhoun saying no new Boeing design for the next 10 to 15 years why wouldn't they go for a clean sheet.


A 7,000 order backlog of the current model that they're struggling to satisfy, perhaps?
We should probably try to keep this realistic..

Rgds

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by astuteman
Wed Feb 07, 2024 7:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus ramps up work on clean sheet A320 successor
Replies: 73
Views: 14881

Re: Airbus ramps up work on clean sheet A320 successor

Reuters has previously reported on Airbus working on a A321neo plus plus (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-ceo-says-focusing-evolving-existing-portfolio-2021-06-10/) (https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1850V7/) You would think another next gen A320 would be the more log...

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by astuteman
Wed Feb 07, 2024 6:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

People here seems to casually use the term engineer here but as we all know there are many sorts of engineer - many involved in aircraft production, many not. Are we considering all equal? (For info I have a BSc in Mechanical Engineering) Aeronautical Engineers? Stress Engineers? Civil Engineers? (...

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by astuteman
Wed Feb 07, 2024 5:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing Orders - 2024
Replies: 74
Views: 22629

Re: Airbus and Boeing Orders - 2024

31 firm orders in January for Airbus, according to their monthly update. Delta: 20 A350-1000 Ethiopian Airlines: 11 A350-900 The A350 has had a very lean spell from 2013, with 812 net orders in 2013 only going up to 925 in 2022 (113 net orders in 9 years), but it looks like its back with a bang, wi...

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by astuteman
Mon Feb 05, 2024 6:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New quality glitch to delay some Boeing 737 MAX deliveries
Replies: 54
Views: 9208

Re: New quality glitch to delay some Boeing 737 MAX deliveries

It's a lot harder to do on a much larger product produced at much lower volumes, such as a 737. It is possible, though Airbus seem to have mastered robotics on the A320 lines. Boeing tried it on the 777 line but never got it to work. I'll bow to your superior knowledge. I'd heard it was done on the...

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by astuteman
Mon Feb 05, 2024 5:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New quality glitch to delay some Boeing 737 MAX deliveries
Replies: 54
Views: 9208

Re: New quality glitch to delay some Boeing 737 MAX deliveries

Do we know if these particular rivets are machine or hand drilled? Are the deficiencies even visible to the naked eye? That be the point of doing a 3D scan, no need for human eyes. And I really really hope they are machine drilled because hand drilling is very tedious: https://economictimes.indiati...

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by astuteman
Mon Feb 05, 2024 7:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Should Boeing buy back the Wichita plant?
Replies: 83
Views: 10329

Re: Should Boeing buy back the Wichita plant?

I think the biggest question is Spirit really a willing company in this case? If Boeing decides to say, have the 737 fuselage made in South Carolina at the Boeing facility there, then does Spirit still have a viable business? There is some asymmetry in the negotiating positions. Boeing can’t quite ...

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by astuteman
Sun Feb 04, 2024 2:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Should Boeing buy back the Wichita plant?
Replies: 83
Views: 10329

Re: Should Boeing buy back the Wichita plant?

Boeing sold the Wichita Plant complex and associated business to Spirit in 2005 simultaneously hiring them to work the operations as contractors in a kind of outsourcing deal. The first of the leaks started coming out in 2007 period. They were initially dismissed as being the work of *disgruntled s...

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by astuteman
Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Should Boeing buy back the Wichita plant?
Replies: 83
Views: 10329

Re: Should Boeing buy back the Wichita plant?

I don’t have a moment to look up the timeline, but as I recall the Wichita plant has been in Spirit’s hands for quite a while. For much of the end of, if not almost of the NG production, during which time the NG seemed to have a mostly trouble free operation. So when did the problems with 737 produ...

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by astuteman
Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Undoubtably Boeing has to change to reverse it's fortunes. Its business priorities need to be reset. So a change in direction is required. And direction is set by it's directors. And these are largely appointed by it's largest shareholders. Unfortunately it is currently primarily left up to them, t...

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by astuteman
Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Alan Mulally would be an excellent Chairman Emeritus! He could oversee moving the HDQ back to Seattle, get rid of the military and space division, clean out the BOD and oversee the transformation from an underfunded McDonnell Douglas/GE bean counter culture model back to a Joe Sutter Engineering ex...

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by astuteman
Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing narrows losses but holds off on 2024 guidance as 737 Max 9 crisis looms
Replies: 44
Views: 5251

Re: Boeing narrows losses but holds off on 2024 guidance as 737 Max 9 crisis looms

Just looking at the results... https://investors.boeing.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2024/Boeing-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results/default.aspx Global Services is absolutely keeping the company afloat at the moment A $3.3Bn operating profit and 17% margin. Which is actually very impressive....

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by astuteman
Wed Jan 31, 2024 4:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United
Replies: 400
Views: 70549

Re: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United

I've found locating OEW data to be problematic. Wiki generally lists them but those are general numbers. In reality they are highly specific to the airline and what BFE they install I agree. That's why I wonder how "Max10 will always be heavier then A321neo" can be stated as fact :confuse...

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by astuteman
Wed Jan 31, 2024 5:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United
Replies: 400
Views: 70549

Re: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United

UA will and wants to take the MAX10 for transcons, in regular config and with lie flats as there is a CASM advantage vs. the competition with 321's. That's a lot of $$ over 25 year life of a plane, so the MAX10 will happen. So, figure 150 or 200 have to stay. That puts 50-100 in play for Airbus. My...

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by astuteman
Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AS1282 PDX-ONT decompression event, returned to PDX, FAA temporarily grounds 737MAX9 for inspections
Replies: 3147
Views: 417650

Re: AS1282 PDX-ONT decompression event, returned to PDX, FAA temporarily grounds 737MAX9 for inspections

I hope this is not true, otherwise the rot is so deep it will be almost impossible to fix… If you changed the company's culture once, you can change it again. It has to start with the C-Suite and then extend down to lower tiers of management and the line workers. Back in the 1980's the American car...

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by astuteman
Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United
Replies: 400
Views: 70549

Re: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United

I can imagine Airbus might be able to conjure up some A321 slots for United, perhaps at a healthy premium, but I would be surprised if the A350 comes into play. Yes, United have had ample time to cancel that order. But they've also had ample time to proceed with it, and have chosen not to do so. I ...

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by astuteman
Mon Jan 29, 2024 6:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

You are absolutely right to point out that on a product as complex as an airliner there are invariably going to be non-conformances that don't fundamentally affect safety that are either just accepted by the regulator and customer (concessed) or accepted subject to remediation at some suitable time...

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by astuteman
Mon Jan 29, 2024 6:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Context is important when past production pauses are equated with the fallout from AS1282. None of the quality issues that required Boeing to pause production or deliveries were related to safety based on the absence of action for in service fleet. My understanding is that Airbus’ procedures would ...

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by astuteman
Mon Jan 29, 2024 5:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Trying and succeeding are quite different. Particularly in something as complex as aircraft manufacturing supply chains, change can take time so the real question is are quality issues being addressed and corrected? It’s important to understand Airbus is not delivering flawless aircraft. There are ...

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by astuteman
Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Of course Boeing is in a bind of its own making. That doesn’t mean that investing a new product for the sake of investing in a new product makes sense. Nor does firing management. Or not worrying about the bottom line. There are a lot of asinine suggestions that will do nothing to solve Boeing’s pr...

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by astuteman
Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United
Replies: 400
Views: 70549

Re: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United

So basically they have two choices, dump the MAX 10 order without penality and order close to 250 a321neos or keep the MAX 10 order and exercise part of their a321neo options ( for 40) to secure any near term available slots airbus manages to find . A little hard for me to believe UA would want to ...

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by astuteman
Sun Jan 28, 2024 8:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United
Replies: 400
Views: 70549

Re: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United

All this effort only makes sense to me if Airbus has received signs or confirmation from UA that they’re cancelling some part or all of the 737-10 order. Otherwise why go through all this trouble for a customer you already have, for an aircraft they already ordered and isn’t exactly lacking in sale...

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by astuteman
Sat Jan 27, 2024 3:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United
Replies: 400
Views: 70549

Re: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United

The MAX 10 has some 1000 orders, UA walking away would reduce the backlog by about 1/4. But the glass is half full for Boeing, it would free up production slots for potential other customers. Honestly, I don't see this as UA abandoning the Max10 as much as it might be filling some of the short term...

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by astuteman
Sat Jan 27, 2024 11:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United
Replies: 400
Views: 70549

Re: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United

Isn’t there a US based ULCC currently having financial whoas, that also happens to have NEO orders, that also may welcome the idea of being compensated for getting out of those orders? There is an airline in India, of course that has the grand total of 677 x A321 NEO still on order. I find it hard ...

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by astuteman
Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United
Replies: 400
Views: 70549

Re: Airbus Looking for Potential Delivery Spots for United

Isn’t there a US based ULCC currently having financial whoas, that also happens to have NEO orders, that also may welcome the idea of being compensated for getting out of those orders? There is an airline in India, of course that has the grand total of 677 x A321 NEO still on order. I find it hard ...

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by astuteman
Fri Jan 26, 2024 12:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

Looks like she got her MBA from Lindenwood University in St. Louis. My degree is from Lindenwood. I don't like to admit to many people that I went to LU. It is not a good university, and the MBA program is a step above a degree mill. I suspect she knew someone at McDonnell (not hard to do in St. Lo...

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by astuteman
Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EASA Extends A320ceo Wing Fatigue Cracking Inspections To All A320neo Models
Replies: 21
Views: 3869

Re: Airbus also in trouble?

Big difference if there is a design issue that leads to premature cracking of major structures and a quality issue that can be avoided in the future. Big difference between a known inspection requirement that's been in process for 3 years now being extended into routine inspections on younger aircr...

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by astuteman
Thu Jan 25, 2024 6:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s Troubles
Replies: 850
Views: 107998

Re: Boeing’s Troubles

I would suspect that the Boeing 737MAX sagas will be part of Business School case studies for decades to come. Hopefully business schools will start teaching the downside of financial-only focus and short term thinking. Boeing sure has been offering a lot of grist for Business School case studies, ...

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