Search found 6739 matches

by astuteman
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue Orders 60 Airbus A220-300
Replies: 354
Views: 46706

Re: JetBlue Orders 60 Airbus A220-300

As for the relative sales numbers...overall, the 320neo family has outsold the 737max family, but according to wiki, (so take it with a grain of salt), if we take the past three years, from the start of 2015 until June 30, 2018, Boeing has sold 1584 max's to Airbus's 1410 neo's. So it's definitely ...

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by astuteman
Tue Jun 12, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus sales chief defiant on A330neo demand as Boeing seals new win
Replies: 132
Views: 26675

Re: Airbus sales chief defiant on A330neo demand as Boeing seals new win

"Capability" is not just how far an airliner can fly but also how much it can carry over this distance. On average A350-900 can carry 30 more passengers than 787-9 for ~400nm further and if these 30 passengers can be filled consistently it is the more appropriate aircraft. The claim "...

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by astuteman
Sat May 05, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet
Replies: 229
Views: 26779

Re: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet

My overall view is that the A330 (of whatever designation) has had a sales blip... (as has most aircraft programs). Is that permanent or short term; or a mix. While there are indications that the program may slow down a bit (as it typical of ALL programs by ALL manufacturers at a certain point); th...

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by astuteman
Fri May 04, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is Airbus struggling with John Leahy gone?
Replies: 29
Views: 5585

Re: Is Airbus struggling with John Leahy gone?

Airbus currently has other problems to go with that, corruption investigations, inability to finance sales because of that and other changes at the top. That's a stretch. No it's not. The withdrawal of export financing as a result of the investigations has unfortunately coincided with a huge build ...

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by astuteman
Tue May 01, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.
Replies: 289
Views: 49198

Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Both planes are struggling to get orders because, IMJ, they don't offer compelling capacity/efficiency tradeoffs. Per Leeham, A35K's cash operating cost per seat is barely better than A359's; B779 shaves only a few % off A35K. Both A35K and 777-9 are suboptimal planes: the former because its wing i...

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by astuteman
Tue May 01, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.
Replies: 289
Views: 49198

Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

I was and didn’t pull anything detailed just looked at quick numbers on height off ground on google. Both are about the same length. The 779 in particular seems like it should have gone to 80 meters. But for whatever reason both builders have presumably looked at and then declined to go any further...

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by astuteman
Tue May 01, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.
Replies: 289
Views: 49198

Re: AIRBUS 2020-2030 development projects A360, A370 opportunities.

Airbus seems to have dropped this for some reason. The A350 beyond the 1000 would be a very long plane and it isn’t as tall as a 777 I don’t believe. Such a project won’t be a small project. To pick up another 40 seats you need another 7 meters which puts you right up at 80 meters. I just don’t thi...

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by astuteman
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet
Replies: 229
Views: 26779

Re: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet

But did not, which imho speaks about doubts in product by HA. I'm pretty sure HA said that one of the key factors was not wishing to have an orphan model in their fleet. Which, yes, expresses doubts about the product, but not in any performance sense, or in any sense pertinent to the A330-900. And ...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Post 1st Quarter Financial Results
Replies: 11
Views: 2277

Re: Airbus Post 1st Quarter Financial Results

I don’t think declining widebody deliveries is the only reason for this but I do think it has some relation to it. It’s a cyclical business but in the present environment you do want to see topline growth. The only way that happens is delivering more planes. And for Airbus at the moment the only pr...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 29, 2018 7:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet
Replies: 229
Views: 26779

Re: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet

I think there were three things hampering A330NEO sales: 1) Low fuel prices, thus no incentive to replace less efficient aircraft. 2) Engine trouble with the related RR Trent 1000. AFAIK, the Trent 7000 is a derivative of the Trent 1000 TEN. (knok on bare wood, no problems with these engines jet. 3...

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by astuteman
Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 301
Views: 39634

Re: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes

If I was forced to put exact numbers on it I believe we will get only 20-30 more passenger A330NEO sales total. Over the next 2-3 years time we will see around 50 orders get outright cancelled or deferred and swapped to A359's. The production rate will then drop down to around 30 aircraft per year ...

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by astuteman
Sat Apr 28, 2018 5:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Post 1st Quarter Financial Results
Replies: 11
Views: 2277

Re: Airbus Post 1st Quarter Financial Results

First I never said doomed or even troubled and don’t believe either to be the case. I agree they would want to push up that rate anyway but as I said it puts into context Airbus pushing an increase with a major vendor saying we won’t make any promises. It puts into context focusing more resources o...

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by astuteman
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Post 1st Quarter Financial Results
Replies: 11
Views: 2277

Re: Airbus Post 1st Quarter Financial Results

https://www.eturbonews.com/183916/airbus-financial-results-first-quarter-2018 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/27/airbus-first-quarter-profit-hit-by-engine-delays-cuts-a330-output.html A330 rate cut announced. Don’t see a definitive announcement that A350 is going to go beyond 10 not that such an annou...

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by astuteman
Fri Apr 27, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 301
Views: 39634

Re: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes

I see a wide market for the A330, and also for A350 in the next 10 years. Why should Airbus widebody's days be numbered? There are routes that require planes bigger than an A321 and smaller than an A380. I think 80% of the long range routes necessities can be covered with a 250 / 300 seats plane. I...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ANC-NRT feasibility on A321LR by AS/VX?
Replies: 77
Views: 7874

Re: ANC-NRT feasibility on A321LR by AS/VX?

Probably an A321LR should be able to do that. I would expect the 737-8 can fly that route as well. Some of the Norwegian Transatlantic 737MAX flights are longer. I suspect that if a standard 737-8 can fly the route, that a bog standard A321NEO should be able to, too, although probably with 2 x ACT'...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

I will tell you there are people at Boeing who believe that both the A320neo and 737max should never have been done and that long term both are mistakes to be corrected. Not saying I agree with it but they do have some points when they make their case. I have no idea who these "people at Boein...

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by astuteman
Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

Hmm so is it feasible or no? It's theoretically feasible, but it would add a significant amount of weight and complexity and would be very maintenance-intensive. Take a look at the lower hold of a commercial airliner - it has rollers and cargo locks on the floors and insulation and padding along th...

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by astuteman
Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model
Replies: 1000
Views: 202648

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

I don't see any reason to suspect that the A350 won't ramp up significantly beyond where it is today. The backlog is there (some 700 frames) and in the same way the 787 is supposed to have done, the A350 will go down the learning curve and, combined with rate growth, will become steadily lower cost...

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by astuteman
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 40306

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

I think the engineering moves around the A320neo are about finding any and all ways to produce it more cheaply. Fundamentally it makes sense. Any improvements on the current base are only going to increase cost. If you find out that you don’t have the space costwise to play with step 1 is to drive ...

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by astuteman
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

For example will the plane have 45K or 50K engines? What engine manufacturer or manufacturers will be chosen? How many spoilers will there be 10, 12, 18...? Will wingtips fold? How many tires and axles? What structure will be composote vs aluminum vs titanium vs steel? If the business case is not c...

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by astuteman
Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model
Replies: 1000
Views: 202648

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

Well the fundamental question way back when that post was made was is the A330neo on the right track. I contend no due to low sales numbers. I think good evidence is that it was pitched by Leahy at a 10 per month production rate and now is going to be six “awaiting sales developments”. I contend th...

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by astuteman
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 301
Views: 39634

Re: Air Asia X cancels A350. Decision on fleet expected later this year.

AirAsia X team is currently now in the US. Can't say anything more than that. 787 souvenirs distributed in office recently. Does it constitutes to anything? I can't comment. Aw, come on, man! You've been dropping these tantalizing hints for weeks now. Spill already! -ir I wish I can, but I don't ha...

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by astuteman
Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

Leeham: Air Canada sees secondary airport need for NMA says: “There is a need for that size of aircraft that might be able to fill some number of seats that is smaller than the [Boeing] 787 and larger than a narrow-body, that you might be able to take to a secondary airport. When you look at the ra...

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by astuteman
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 301
Views: 39634

Re: Air Asia X cancels A350. Decision on fleet expected later this year.

This is Air Asia X.. an airline that seems to change its strategy every few months. The amount of times it has stated it will grow frequencies only to not long after instead cut them on its network is just too hard to follow. Their fleet decision making process seems just as hard to read. Really ea...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 40306

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

First off, it feels like you are signaling me out yet not bothered by Wiederling’s comment, which was entirely unsubstantiated. Ah. My apologies. I wasn't bothered by Wiederling's comment, I ignored it as no more than an anecdote. I don't believe you will see a meaningful difference in the way that...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 15, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 40306

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

As an example of a concrete problem with that : In case of a problem on the production line, engineers need to be called to locally diagnose the issue and modify the design. I've heard that from Boeing "in case of issues we have an engineer down on the shop floor in minutes". But that is ...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 15, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is Boeing outfoxing Airbus?
Replies: 114
Views: 20292

Re: Is Boeing outfoxing Airbus?

There is indeed no short haul optimised widebody on the market. There used to be several. The question has to ba asked why they disappeared. Is the reason that the product doesn't exist that there is, and has been, no demand? When you put new engines on an aircraft they gain range and become more o...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 40306

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Overall you are correct it's a small piece of the puzzel. But, it could be strtegically an important piece as it would buy Boeing in the range of 5 years of market advantage - even if its only a $ Million per aircraft as Airbus would have to go through a similar learning curve in order to catch up....

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 40306

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

I have worked mostly R&D my whole career. But every so often I work a few months optimizing production and then go back to R&D now knowing better ways to design stuff to be made. I don't consider in misinformation to have the people who design aircraft help accelerate production. They know ...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 40306

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

797 actually has less to develop because I think it will leverage more from the 787 program than A350 did from A380 (A350 had to develop CFRP panel technology), and 797 will take great advantage of 777x because of the fact that 777x has built an all new wing factory and in the process is learning a...

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by astuteman
Sun Apr 15, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is Boeing outfoxing Airbus?
Replies: 114
Views: 20292

Re: Is Boeing outfoxing Airbus?

There is no short haul optimised widebody on the market. So you can't say that there is no demand for a product that doesn't exist yet. Frequency has an upper limit. You don't need more than 10 flights per day between two points. Airlines will happily upgauge at this point. It's clear that you are ...

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by astuteman
Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 40306

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

797 actually has less to develop because I think it will leverage more from the 787 program than A350 did from A380 (A350 had to develop CFRP panel technology), and 797 will take great advantage of 777x because of the fact that 777x has built an all new wing factory and in the process is learning a...

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by astuteman
Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is Boeing outfoxing Airbus?
Replies: 114
Views: 20292

Re: Is Boeing outfoxing Airbus?

With the really poor 787-8 sales over the last few years I was expecting a quick and dirty 5-8T weight reduction to the 787-8. It would have formed a 787-8 regional launch with a lower MTO. But that changed with last weeks new order. Not being funny, but Boeing set such hard targets for the 787's w...

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by astuteman
Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16437

Re: Future of the A338

Less expensive? American Airlines doesn't think so Airbus told Bloomberg last week that its talks with American ended because Boeing's price for the long-haul jets was too low to match. https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2018/04/06/american-airlines-boeing-787-dreamliners-order.html The bird ...

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by astuteman
Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

OR: That Boeing is working real hard at making something work that Airbus cannot immediately effectively respond to. That sounds almost the same as what I said. I think this comes down to manufacturing methods. All composite barrel with wide wings; where the cost to assemble the composite barrels i...

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by astuteman
Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas defines ULR requirements, delays order decision
Replies: 347
Views: 54614

Re: Qantas defines ULR requirements, delays order decision

A350 - 230 passengers 165,000litres = 717 litres per pas 777-8 - 305 passengers 197,000litres = 645 litres per pas That is a 10% fuel burn difference London to Sydney. The more difficult Sydney to London route would see blocked seats and the fuel burn per passenger difference rising above 20%. I'm ...

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by astuteman
Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas defines ULR requirements, delays order decision
Replies: 347
Views: 54614

Re: Qantas defines ULR requirements, delays order decision

parapente wrote:
Is the general consensus that neither the 778 or the 359 can make this trip (profitability) without serious and expensive physical modifications?


It seems to be the consensus of the guy that's actually going to be buying them, which, whatever we might think, is all that matters, isn't it? :)

Rgds

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by astuteman
Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas defines ULR requirements, delays order decision
Replies: 347
Views: 54614

Re: Qantas defines ULR requirements, delays order decision

I expect this to go as far as the "SkyLoft" concept Boeing was peddling for the 747-8. Nowhere. Maybe I misremember but I thought that was a BBJ thing, not for commercial. Boeing offered it for both commercial and VIP configurations and at least one VIP customer ordered it. Commercially, ...

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by astuteman
Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas defines ULR requirements, delays order decision
Replies: 347
Views: 54614

Re: Qantas defines ULR requirements, delays order decision

I think that A or B will deliver on what he truely wants, a plane that can do SYD-LHR. Whether he has to drop his other wishes for that to happen, well probably. I honestly would not be surprised if QF ends up doing the route with a 787-9 configured with Business Class and Premium Economy. Say 50 o...

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by astuteman
Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus officially launches 251t A330neo variant
Replies: 137
Views: 25205

Re: Airbus officially launches 251t A330neo variant

Now what good is this rather single minded push to have A333/9 and A359 forced into the same capacity slot. IMU the slotwise match still is A332 A338 788 A333 A339 789 A359 7810 ----------------778X A3510 77W ----------------779X Viewing capacity in isolation isn't that useful. For instance A359 an...

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by astuteman
Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus officially launches 251t A330neo variant
Replies: 137
Views: 25205

Re: Airbus officially launches 251t A330neo variant

I really wonder how efficient the aircraft is at its extreme range. My bet is it's very good at shorter ranges compared to the 787, but at longer ranges its efficiency drops off and both the 787 and A350 will be much better. Nice to have the flexibility, but I think if you're mostly flying very lon...

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by astuteman
Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

Maybe I missed something, but why are we discussing 381 seat 787s? All the information provided thus far indicates the “797” will be in the 225-275 seat range. I could see a business case for a regional 787 with a lighter wing, but I don’t think this is the “797”. I have been wondering the same, ob...

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by astuteman
Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Why is Boeing waiting to officially launch the NMA or the "797?"

I see Airbus having advantages from time to time and having some now, but guess what - so does Boeing. If they really have their stuffed barrel system doing what it is suppose to it will be a small advantage. Boeing will be building its 3rd CFRP wing, again a small advantage. (and no Brexit issues!...

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by astuteman
Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
2024 is very ambitious.

Yet Tinseth affirms that time line. Go figure...


He confirms the timeline at the same time as he acknowledges they haven't yet confirmed the business case.
go figure :)

Rgds

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by astuteman
Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Why is Boeing waiting to officially launch the NMA or the "797?"

There are a couple of significant manufacturing things Boeing has said which are in play on the NMA. The first is Boeings comment that the 787 was the heaviest barrel they ever would make. The second is what 3D printing would be doing to simplify production. A third thing, related to the previous t...

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by astuteman
Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Why is Boeing waiting to officially launch the NMA or the "797?"

As for A321LR efficiency, those three tanks carry 9000 liters extra fuel. For 39000 liters total. The standard 757 which has been so derided here carries 42000 liters. Not much difference. And the 757 has a higher weight variant which is what is used on most TATL flights. Even the 767-300 non ER ho...

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by astuteman
Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pressure mounts on Airbus A330 in widebody order battle
Replies: 283
Views: 38018

Re: Pressure mounts on Airbus A330 in widebody order battle

It is completely accepted within the industry that the cost of a composite part is significantly more than its metallic equivalent. If you don't believe me, then go look at some cost modelling research papers of theses on the subject. Quantification of exactly how much more expensive is difficult g...

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by astuteman
Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2530
Views: 315008

Re: Why is Boeing waiting to officially launch the NMA or the "797?"

There are technical challenges, but I think the biggest challenge is the business case. Nice to see that someone can get it right. Boeing have identified a potential gap in the market, but have said themselves that they have not yet constructed the business case. A number of airlines have publicly ...

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by astuteman
Sun Feb 25, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Update: Hawaiian signs 787 LOI
Replies: 840
Views: 96979

Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/hawaiians-a330-800-order-remains-in-place-for-now-446147/ I didn't read the full thread which it have probably been mentioned already that HA denies the report and said the order have not been cancelled yet, but then what do they mean when they say "W...

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by astuteman
Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Update: Hawaiian signs 787 LOI
Replies: 840
Views: 96979

Re: A330-800 out, B787-9 in at Hawaiian? -Leeham

Boeing produces a 789 for $35 to $40 million less than an A359. This is quite probably one of the most ridiculous comments I've ever read on A-net, on probably quite the most ridiculous thread I've ever read on A-net. So you think it costs Airbus 50% more to manufacture an A350-900 than it does Boe...

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