Search found 14098 matches

by lightsaber
Sun May 20, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration
Replies: 75
Views: 17936

Re: 737-10 Reaches Firm Configuration

Nobody is quite saying this, but I am getting the feeling that the 737-9 may be the mainstream airplane, and the 737-8 effectively the shrink. Let the record show I'm saying the exact opposite. When the last MAX and NEO roll off the assembly line, the 737-8 and A320neo will have outsold their large...

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by lightsaber
Sat May 19, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA seeks DOT approval to downgauge Cuba service to regional partners
Replies: 26
Views: 4287

Re: AA seeks DOT approval to downgauge Cuba service to regional partners

Thread has gone off topic. Move discussion to non-aviation

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by lightsaber
Sat May 19, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe to retire ERJ 195
Replies: 49
Views: 8198

Re: Flybe to retire ERJ 195

Everyone is deposing of the ERJ-190/195’s. It is going to be hard to sell the latest model with the previous model not doing well. Not true. I love it when people make personal assumptions without real facts to support them. Of the total of 748 E190 / 195 produced since 2004, 685 are still in opera...

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by lightsaber
Sat May 19, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Economy of Scales not applying to airports?
Replies: 25
Views: 2565

Re: Economy of Scales not applying to airports?

However it's a tricky situation as the small airport can't raise the fees too much. If they did, the airlines serving them might move to another airport leaving them with nothing. And at the end of the day why would an airline leave if fees go up in this situation? Because they can't raise fares en...

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by lightsaber
Sat May 19, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Economy of Scales not applying to airports?
Replies: 25
Views: 2565

Re: Economy of Scales not applying to airports?

A big factor is land acquisition and construction costs. These are much higher in congested major cities, especially if you have to build in and around active facilities. However as you say airports with large scales and relatively few constraints like ATL and CLT have very low ($2-3) CPE. That sum...

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by lightsaber
Sat May 19, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA RFQ now ongoing for 767 replacement?
Replies: 214
Views: 28103

Re: UA RFQ now ongoing for 767 replacement?

There remains only one widebody in production that isn’t sold out for several years. This particular campaign isn’t really a big deal though, as far as I can see. It’s pretty logical unless somehow or some way Boeing wends in some NMA conversion options/prices. Actually, there is major evidence of ...

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by lightsaber
Fri May 18, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alitalia bankruptcy and selling process discussion thread
Replies: 598
Views: 156046

Re: Alitalia bankruptcy and selling process discussion thread

I truly understand everyone’ s opinions about AZ, however, let me explain this rather that with a practical capitalist mentality, with an Italian mentality. AZ has been considered, for years, like a governmental department, where favors, nepotism, and personal interests have dominated the company. ...

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by lightsaber
Thu May 17, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Boeing 707 JT8D
Replies: 11
Views: 1480

Re: Boeing 707 JT8D

JSTARS has JT8Ds

GE was agressive with the KC-135. Pratt made a huge mistake with the JT10D program cancelation.

Lightsaber

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by lightsaber
Wed May 16, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why is the A350 so expensive?
Replies: 140
Views: 24376

Re: Why is the A350 so expensive?

But Kanban frommetrics ihave seen (and they can be fiddled by outsourcing etc) Boeing and Airbus have similar workforce’s per plane produced. Perhaps the static stations lend themselves to more Automation. I have watched a few programs re high end car manufacturing. R8 and up. Mostly they use stati...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 16, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LH Spohr: OS to postpone long-haul fleet renewal
Replies: 78
Views: 10256

Re: LH Spohr: OS to postpone long-haul fleet renewal

LH act like a bully to SN and OS, but isn't even able to have their own house (Eurowings) in order Not really. Its quite simple really - LH Group (like IAG) is a holding company. You want access to the bank coffers you need to earn it. Group will spend finite resources on units where it believes it...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 16, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Flybe to retire ERJ 195
Replies: 49
Views: 8198

Re: Flybe to retire ERJ 195

Meh... Shrinking. Receiving four more E1-175s, so still an ejet opperator.

They weren't able to make a business case with the E-195s. Adapt and move on.

Lightsaber

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by lightsaber
Wed May 16, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s
Replies: 11
Views: 2794

Re: Bloomberg Article on Second Lives of 747s

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-16/boeing-747s-given-up-for-dead-find-new-life-in-air-cargo-surge Am I wrong in doubting the claim that operators "rushing to snap up the aging jumbo jets?" Sure, there's been growth in cargo activity overall, but the boneyard 747s don't...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 16, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why is the A350 so expensive?
Replies: 140
Views: 24376

Re: Why is the A350 so expensive?

Also the A350 is made only in Toulouse. One could make an argument that Boeing having two lines for the 787. The A350 has most of the modern benefits of the 787 in a "777" size", and there is a big market for it. So the comparison to the Dreamliner isn't exactly a fair argument. Both...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 16, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Global 7000 as CRJ-700 replacement?
Replies: 11
Views: 3438

Re: Global 7000 as CRJ-700 replacement?

A CRJ-700/900 NEO with a variant of the GE Passport engine makes a lot more sense from a practical standpoint. Perhaps they would build a single optimized version for 76 seats in a 2-class arrangement (the scope limit of most North American regionals) and call it the CRJ-800. Yeah... Or PW1200. New...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 16, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Global 7000 as CRJ-700 replacement?
Replies: 11
Views: 3438

Re: Global 7000 as CRJ-700 replacement?

Different missions. The Global 7000 has engines and wing optimized for speed, not cost for distance. The planes are somewhat lighter as no business jet needs the cycles of an RJ. You couldn't fly the 7000 at the same intensity as an RJ. The things are optimized for once a year service of (going from...

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by lightsaber
Tue May 15, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Alaska to Close Pilot Base in NYC
Replies: 80
Views: 8574

Re: Alaska to Close Pilot Base in NYC

There are so many ways to modify schedules to minimize the impact of this change that you will not see VX crews filling up hotels around JFK. As someone that builds pairings, that is simply not true. There will be hotel increases in JFK as they have nowhere else to send them except to send them via...

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by lightsaber
Tue May 15, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A320ceo Family Production/Delivery Thread 2018
Replies: 42
Views: 6443

Re: Airbus A320ceo Family Production/Delivery Thread 2018

April CEO backlog update: (A319 + A320 + A321 = Total) D: 17 + 196 + 182 = 395 J: 16 + 190 + 179 = 385 F: 15 + 182 + 169 = 366 M: 15 + 160 + 156 = 331 A: 20 + 155 + 146 = 321 April changes: A319: 5 orders (!) A320: 4 orders, 9 deliveries A321: 10 deliveries Thank you for the numbers. But what the h...

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by lightsaber
Tue May 15, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why is the A350 so expensive?
Replies: 140
Views: 24376

Re: Why is the A350 so expensive?

A good indicator of the 'right' price for an airliner, would be dollars pr. kilo. Examples (using 2017 average list prices): B737M9: 110M, 82.000kg = 745 USD/kg A320neo: 108M, 79.000kg = 731 USD/kg B787-10: 306M, 254.000kg = 830 USD/kg A350-900 311M, 280.000kg = 900 USD/kg So, yes, the A350-900 is ...

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by lightsaber
Tue May 15, 2018 1:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why no ME3 airline serve TLV?
Replies: 71
Views: 10974

Re: Why no ME3 airline serve TLV?

Folks. It was an honest question. I read a lot of history, but I fail to understand why 70 years later there isn't a solution. Isreal isn't North Korea. The reality is the demand is there. So... When does everyone grow up, realize they won't get everything and sit down for a serious negotiation ses...

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by lightsaber
Mon May 14, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why no ME3 airline serve TLV?
Replies: 71
Views: 10974

Re: Why no ME3 airline serve TLV?

Folks. It was an honest question. I read a lot of history, but I fail to understand why 70 years later there isn't a solution. Isreal isn't North Korea. The reality is the demand is there. So... When does everyone grow up, realize they won't get everything and sit down for a serious negotiation sess...

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by lightsaber
Mon May 14, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Asiana Airlines A333 knocks tail off Turkish Airlines A321 at IST
Replies: 111
Views: 22939

Re: Asiana Airlines A333 knocks tail off Turkish Airlines A321 at IST

Speed Tape! Nah, just reinflate. :-) Ikramerca, you won the thread. I'm assuming it's a no-brainer that both planes will fly again (unless there is some other damage that we don't know about) - but what would be the typical amount of time to source a replacement tailfin and then install it? I'm gue...

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by lightsaber
Mon May 14, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PVG poised to become a global super airport?
Replies: 20
Views: 3066

Re: PVG poised to become a global super airport?

I would add ICN, HND, and CDG to the scenario where the home airline is very much weakened by a split hub. Not sure I can agree with CDG.... how does AF suffer? Prior to the recent rise of DXB/HKG, it was the 2nd busiest gateway by total int'l pax for yearssss on end. AF couldn't have been hurting ...

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by lightsaber
Mon May 14, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian Airlines mulls over orders this year for 13 B787s and 6 A350s
Replies: 20
Views: 4672

Re: Ethiopian Airlines mulls over orders this year for 13 B787s and 6 A350s

Much of the above discussion confuses me. ET competes at regional wages. The fact the are run as a business instead of a jobs program gives them a HUGE advantage. As long as they continue to be unsubsidized. There are certainly better geographically located hubs, but now ET has the first mover advan...

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by lightsaber
Mon May 14, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PVG poised to become a global super airport?
Replies: 20
Views: 3066

Re: PVG poised to become a global super airport?

Could this concept accommodate 100+ million pax/ year? :yes: Shanghai should switch more, if not all, flights from SHA (the other airport closer to downtown Shanghai) to PVG in order to minimize the impact of split traffic inherent with any multi-airport system That would be key to avoiding another ...

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by lightsaber
Mon May 14, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why is the A350 so expensive?
Replies: 140
Views: 24376

Re: Why is the A350 so expensive?

The production line at Boeing is more mature and more streamlined. The production process is also more efficient. This is irrelevant. The agreed price depends on the market conditions, and as long as there is more demand than supply the prices grow. The unit price may be above or below the producti...

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by lightsaber
Sun May 13, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MC-21 Development Thread
Replies: 347
Views: 85291

Re: MC-21 Development Thread

IIRC the permission from OFAC is required as long as the amount of US components exceeds 10%, so the PD-14 version of the MC-21 can be sold to Iran without any permission at all. Hello Lightsaber, the avionics in the MC-21 will be from KRET systems(Russia) as far as I know, this is actually a depar...

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by lightsaber
Sun May 13, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018
Replies: 268
Views: 31488

Re: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018

I'm optimistic on the E2, C-series, MRJ, MC-21 and a little on the SSJ (it is now out of date with E2 EIS). I'm pessimistic on the ARJ-21, C919 (not because of the engines, but the interface definition is poor, which Embraer went from poor on the E-190 to possibly best in the world). e.g.g, the Glo...

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by lightsaber
Sun May 13, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Effects of Brent price escalating?
Replies: 6
Views: 1155

Re: Brent price escalating

The greater the Spike, the greater the production. Venezuela and Iran will produce less, everyone else more. The issue right now is that the pipelines to export Permian basin oil is insufficient to take any more. Right now there is a huge discount of oil at the fracking Fields as it cannot be moved ...

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by lightsaber
Sun May 13, 2018 12:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Corporate Jet ACJ321LR, Scheduled ?
Replies: 35
Views: 4328

Re: Airbus Corporate Jet ACJ321LR, Scheduled ?

2 ACT's add 4.7t of fuel. https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Csv9rW-Z2sg/WvdfUI-ASzI/AAAAAAAAD6M/ybtNwz0-efc3xfLhXwfPVyUWRaNhI9ScQCLcBGAs/s1600/ACJ321LR%2BACT%2Bfuel%2Btank%2Bauxillairy.jpg There would still be room left for 4 LD3-45 or roughly 120 bags. More than enough for up to 30 people. If we ...

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by lightsaber
Sat May 12, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: a MTOW increase on 787-10 to compete with A359?
Replies: 154
Views: 18418

Re: a MTOW increase on 787-10 to compete with A359?

Yes, the A359 will have better economics on mission with great circle distances over 4500nm. Below 4000nm on the the 787-10 has a major advantage. I assume you mean that A359's economics will be better on long missions because it can carry cargo? Per Bjorn at Leeham, 78X is better on a 5,000nm miss...

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by lightsaber
Sat May 12, 2018 7:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MC-21 Development Thread
Replies: 347
Views: 85291

Re: MC-21 Development Thread

In my post, I said it looks like a rip off of an A321. That strong opinion belies your knowledge on the matter. The MS-21 is the most advanced aircraft structure in development or in service at the minute. The OOA processes are the world's best. Better than Bombardier, better than A or B. No one ca...

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by lightsaber
Sat May 12, 2018 1:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: a MTOW increase on 787-10 to compete with A359?
Replies: 154
Views: 18418

Re: a MTOW increase on 787-10 to compete with A359?

787 MLG are currently maxed out at current MTOW. I think there is still room with the wing. I agree with both assessments. I believe the tires are also maxed out too. It is non-trivial to upgrade at this point. I'm thinking it might not be worth the effort. Lightsaber If you do it you do it with a ...

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by lightsaber
Sat May 12, 2018 12:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A320neo Family Production/Delivery Thread 2018
Replies: 311
Views: 91743

Re: Airbus A320neo Family Production/Delivery Thread 2018

audidudi wrote:
Hawaiian Airlines third A321N was delivered today:

Airbus A321-271N 8092 N205HA Hawaiian Airlines delivery 11 May 2018 XFW-YYR-PAE ex D-AVZA

Great news! Seeing the delivery pace pick up is good to see.

Lightsaber

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by lightsaber
Sat May 12, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: U.S., UAE strike deal resolving contentious airline spat
Replies: 44
Views: 7068

Re: U.S., Emirates strike deal resolving contentious airline spat

Access to the financial statements ends EY and QR growth via investments. Notice no EK in my comment.

It is time to end government subsidies. Aviation is a mature market. I'm ok with turboprop flights being subsidized to small airports, but that is the limit.

Lightsaber

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by lightsaber
Fri May 11, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetBlue reaches tentative pilot agreement with ALPA
Replies: 4
Views: 1181

Re: JetBlue reaches tentative pilot agreement with ALPA

Any details? Hopefully includes both E2 jet and C-series rates.

Lightsaber

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by lightsaber
Fri May 11, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: a MTOW increase on 787-10 to compete with A359?
Replies: 154
Views: 18418

Re: a MTOW increase on 787-10 to compete with A359?

Polot wrote:
787 MLG are currently maxed out at current MTOW. I think there is still room with the wing.

I agree with both assessments.

I believe the tires are also maxed out too. It is non-trivial to upgrade at this point. I'm thinking it might not be worth the effort.

Lightsaber

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by lightsaber
Fri May 11, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Are the Trent 800 and PW4090/4098 engines still being made?
Replies: 6
Views: 2188

Re: Are the Trent 800 and PW4090/4098 engines still being made?

As there are quite a few in service still, I would expect a full new engine is available but probably with a fairly long lead time. Plenty of spare parts around though. All the parts for new engines are available at the rebuild shop. There is no reason one or two new engines couldn't be put togethe...

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by lightsaber
Fri May 11, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 24 pilots and 67 crew members at PK found to hold fake degrees
Replies: 63
Views: 10270

Re: 24 pilots and 67 crew members at PK found to hold fake degrees

The concern for me is where does such an individual draw the line with their background, what is real about their previous flying experience, and the logbooks used to obtain a licence. That sums it up. The person's must be fired. They should be allowed to pay for auditing of the logs and licenses t...

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by lightsaber
Fri May 11, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018
Replies: 268
Views: 31488

Re: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018

Hello, just noticed that the E2 family only has 228 firm orders so far and zero from blue chip airlines. Isn’t this risky for the program? Based on everything Lightsaber has described, as last by as EIS and fuel burn meet or exceed expectations (so far, so good), the orders will follow. :yes:. Due ...

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by lightsaber
Thu May 10, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: University professor claims: Bombardier trying to sell CRJ900 to Iran despite US sanctions
Replies: 65
Views: 8264

Re: Bombardier trying to sell CRJ900 to Iran despite US sanctions

They probably realize that unless they do something about Iran, the whole market will be flooded with SSJ aircraft. Some might say that would be a positive result. Many countries want to develop aircraft that are free of US ITAR rules. Engines, nacelles, avionics, and landing gear tend to be the st...

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by lightsaber
Thu May 10, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: University professor claims: Bombardier trying to sell CRJ900 to Iran despite US sanctions
Replies: 65
Views: 8264

Re: Bombardier trying to sell CRJ900 to Iran despite US sanctions

Since the CRJ is a Canadian aircraft, I don't see what the United States government has to say about this. It's a case between Canada and Iran. The Iranians are in need of aircraft and will buy what they can get. If they can't get American planes, they'll buy Canadian or European or maybe even Russ...

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by lightsaber
Thu May 10, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018
Replies: 268
Views: 31488

Re: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018

I'm amazed how well the plane is doing. Maybe my oriposed. I'm not criticizing... I'm seeing if we have a worthy successor to the Douglas T-tails. Everyone should be impressed that a cynical person such as myself is considering such a possibility. :stirthepot: Think of the implications of what I'm ...

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by lightsaber
Thu May 10, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Financial Performance for 2017-2018
Replies: 49
Views: 4916

Re: Emirates Financial Performance for 2017-2018

... FOOD is cheap I am surprised it is that high! Inflight food is NOT cheap. $15.5 won't cover one economy meal , let alone multiple meals on ULH, drinks and premium cabin Dom, Caviar and chocolates. Can someone in catering comment on this. I believe EK runs the largest flight catering center in t...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 09, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018
Replies: 268
Views: 31488

Re: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018

A little more analysis. I took prior numbers at Faith. Current ground time between flights is almost 7 hours. While such conservative planning is good for EIS, it is too high for a mature product. Certain flights take longer than others. Start the day at 6am and fly later, say 2am. The current sche...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 09, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Financial Performance for 2017-2018
Replies: 49
Views: 4916

Re: Emirates Financial Performance for 2017-2018

Europe and East Asia/Australiasia will always be higher in terms of percent of total revenue just due to geography. Americas is farther away and has fewer natural traffic flows that EK can capture and Africa is a smaller (albeit often high yielding) market. I actually expected West Asia to be more ...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 09, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Financial Performance for 2017-2018
Replies: 49
Views: 4916

Re: Emirates Financial Performance for 2017-2018

Emirates Revenue by region: Europe = 29.3% East Asia and Australasia =27.9% Americas = 14.7% Africa = 10.2% Gulf and Middle East = 9.4% West Asia and Indian Ocean = 8.5% A good balance but the Americas and Africa still have much more room to grow. Europe and East Asia/Australiasia will always be hi...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 09, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates Financial Performance for 2017-2018
Replies: 49
Views: 4916

Re: Emirates Financial Performance for 2017-2018

UAE should just mandate all foreign airlines must move to DWC ( except EK partners) and provide a free express bus ( no train to DWC right?) or something for all passengers flying DWC ( sweeten the deal for other airlines) Allow a few airlines from non cooperative countries to fly fifth freedom on ...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 09, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Wow Air to announce flights to Delhi
Replies: 161
Views: 15283

Re: Wow Air to announce flights to Delhi

What are the bilateral rights? KEF to India should do very well. The issue is DUB-India should also be able to compete. The other EU3 hubs are getting too impacted. If bilaterals allow, add the 10 hour cities. But since only widebodies will work, that limits how many secondary cities will be connect...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 09, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018
Replies: 268
Views: 31488

Re: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018

A little more analysis. I took prior numbers at Faith. Current ground time between flights is almost 7 hours. While such conservative planning is good for EIS, it is too high for a mature product. Certain flights take longer than others. Start the day at 6am and fly later, say 2am. The current sched...

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by lightsaber
Wed May 09, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018
Replies: 268
Views: 31488

Re: Embraer E2 Flight Testing And Production Thread - 2018

The entry into service seems to really be quite smooth with 8 flights every day. The time between scales is as small as 25 minutes, with 35-45 minutes being a typical wait. An interesting read is the article below: https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2018/05/08/overhead-design-quirk-aside-embraer-e2-impr...

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