Search found 1148 matches

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by Aither
Fri Jun 22, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: China-US Air Pax Traffic Data for 2017 by Airport-Pair and Load Factor: A Cold Hard Look
Replies: 11
Views: 1885

Re: China-US Air Pax Traffic Data for 2017 by Airport-Pair and Load Factor: A Cold Hard Look

FromCDGtoSYD wrote:
SFOA380 wrote:
Also amazing that the entirety of service to 2nd tier cities is only slightly more than PEK-LAX. WOW!


Keep in mind most of these routes are 2-3 weekly with A330-200s


Yep... that's the so called "point to point" fragmentation of the network changing the face of the transpacific...

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by Aither
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus sales chief defiant on A330neo demand as Boeing seals new win
Replies: 132
Views: 26362

Re: Airbus sales chief defiant on A330neo demand as Boeing seals new win

The huge victory of the 330 was Airbus taking advantage of the 787s years of delays and initial high cost of production. They sold hundreds. Most of us see that window has shut. That huge victory came at a price. A price they are paying right now. They could had spent that time launching the neo ea...

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by Aither
Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus sales chief defiant on A330neo demand as Boeing seals new win
Replies: 132
Views: 26362

Re: Airbus sales chief defiant on A330neo demand as Boeing seals new win

I think it's too early to make conclusions. The A330 fleet is quite young and most of the 787 orders in 2017 were again from non A330 operators. The A330neo is expected to be in the same ballpark than the 787 in term of performance but for the current A330 operators it will remain a much easier tran...

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by Aither
Mon Jun 04, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s
Replies: 452
Views: 80211

Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

We can blame the A380 for not being more cost/seat effective than new generation smaller widebody aircraft. But it is at least as good. The seat cost is only one side of the profit equation. The revenues, how much it maximizes the market capture on the most demanded flights, how much it improves the...

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by Aither
Tue May 15, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: CAAC rolls out game-changing policies abandoning “One Route One Carrier” restriction in a gradual manner
Replies: 33
Views: 6480

Re: CAAC rolls out game-changing policies abandoning “One Route One Carrier” restriction in a gradual manner

http://i68.tinypic.com/i4h5kx.gif The map above shows all long-haul nonstop links to destinations in Europe and North America that Air China currently serves out of PEK. Due to CAAC’s protectionist and infamously disputed policy of “One Route One Carrier”for Chinese airlines, CA has effectively hel...

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by Aither
Tue May 15, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: CAAC rolls out game-changing policies abandoning “One Route One Carrier” restriction in a gradual manner
Replies: 33
Views: 6480

Re: CAAC rolls out game-changing policies abandoning “One Route One Carrier” restriction in a gradual manner

So If I understand correctly: For 1) a Chinese airline should make sure it flies no more than 12 weekly (both ways) to be almost sure there would be no additional competition... Theoretically, that can indeed be a likely means for a Chinese carrier to circumvent the first requirement to block compe...

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by Aither
Mon May 14, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: CAAC rolls out game-changing policies abandoning “One Route One Carrier” restriction in a gradual manner
Replies: 33
Views: 6480

Re: CAAC rolls out game-changing policies abandoning “One Route One Carrier” restriction in a gradual manner

So If I understand correctly: For 1) a Chinese airline should make sure it flies no more than 12 weekly (both ways) to be almost sure there would be no additional competition... For 2) " an existing Chinese carrier has served the route solely for more than 6 years" : so this does not apply...

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by Aither
Thu May 03, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AA drops ORD-PEK
Replies: 151
Views: 20106

Re: AA drops ORD-PEK

I doubt there is a single China - US route making money. If it does it's probably after taking into account some "big picture" effects like these routes could help to secure some big corporate contracts. The " incentives " given my the Chinese provinces are largely responsible fo...

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by Aither
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: China—US Aviation Thread
Replies: 39
Views: 2910

Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Some telling ranking lists could be culled per the chart with the link in Post #20 Top 10 routes with highest load btwn mainland China and continental US (both ways combined for Jan-Sept 2017) 1 CAN-LAX 89.7% 2 PVG-DTW 88.4% 3 CAN-JFK 87.8% 4 PEK-DTW 87.5% 5 PVG-EWR 86.7% 6 CAN-SFO 86.4% 7 PEK-EWR ...

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by Aither
Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: China—US Aviation Thread
Replies: 39
Views: 2910

Re: China—US Aviation Thread

Good thread but to me the #1 question is how do these flights sustain themselves when prices are cheaper than dirt. Midwest USA to China < $600 through spring break season. Mind blowing in comparison to Europe Hawaii or S America Yeah I know someone will say they make it up in the front of the plan...

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by Aither
Wed Jan 24, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why has Boeing ceded the 777-200 / 300 replacement to Airbus ?
Replies: 270
Views: 31566

Re: Why has Boeing ceded the 777-200 / 300 replacement to Airbus ?

The 787 is flying farther than the A350 is today, at similar (if not the same) capacities and 55,000lbs less weight. Probably the airlines having ordered A350s did not know that... Obviously it depends of each airline but typically I'd rather choose one type of aircraft and eventually different ver...

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by Aither
Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why has Boeing ceded the 777-200 / 300 replacement to Airbus ?
Replies: 270
Views: 31566

Re: Why has Boeing ceded the 777-200 / 300 replacement to Airbus ?

Boeings has split the 777's original market between the 787 and 777X. If you operated 777's ultra long haul with low density cabins you would go 777-8's. If you operated 777's for medium haul you would go 787-10's. If you operated 777 routes that you were struggling to fill you would downgauge to a...

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by Aither
Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Emirates firms up order for up to 36 additional A380s
Replies: 494
Views: 59587

Re: Emirates signs a commitment for 36 additional A380's

Hub and spoke is fading and point-to-point is expanding. The A380 only works for hub-and-spoke and even then only in a limited number of airports. That's Boeing propaganda. The reality is the opposite. More and more people go through more efficient and attractive hubs on long haul markets, even whe...

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by Aither
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Chinese airlines supplanting ME3 as the competitive LH concern for other airlines.
Replies: 74
Views: 11092

Re: Chinese airlines supplanting ME3 as the competitive LH concern for other airlines.

CZ at Guangzhou is the only effective international hub in China. Unfortunately it's not so well located. A combination of CZ / Beijing second airport which will be optimized for hub operations could potentially shake a lot of things. I insist on "potentially" because Air China will block ...

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by Aither
Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Another interesting study on fuel burn, posted on http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1383931 https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Transpacific-airline-fuel-efficiency-ranking-2016_ICCT-white-paper_16012018_vF.pdf This report actually shows VLA on a ULH missio...

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by Aither
Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Re the discussion of airport costs between Revelation and others, another data point is Vienna's ~$20mn for an A380 gate: http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=601421. That's below the ~$55mn [168/3] from the Boston case and above the $600k from the YUL case. I want to point out if $20mn i...

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by Aither
Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

I didn't remember seeing this before, but if so, I see what you mean. 20 for CX? Yeah it's ridiculous. Aither's argument is that CX needed to balance flying to U.S. with Europe flights and that EK prevented those Europe flights. There are so many problems with the whole thing that I didn't even res...

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by Aither
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme
Replies: 126
Views: 18345

Re: Airbus offers China Industrial Partnership for A380 Programme

Also, according to my knowledge, when CZ use A380 in CAN-PEK, even if the flight were full, they still can't gain any profit from it due to the stage length being too short for the plane's optimal stage length You should double check your knowledge. Yields are so high on domestic routes that any ai...

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by Aither
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: O&D versus pax how are numbers calculated.
Replies: 20
Views: 1787

Re: O&D versus pax how are numbers calculated.

That's how Emirates carries much more passengers than they sell tickets...

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by Aither
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 B747 The last of the four engine airliners?
Replies: 32
Views: 2889

Re: A380 B747 The last of the four engine airliners?

Why not ? the 4 engines is the optimum choice for a double decker (2 engines per deck). We're not talking about A340 here...

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by Aither
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

That sadly ignores realities like the geographical placement of your hubs. The US3 would face much bigger problems if they would move all traffic to maybe 2 megahubs each, as other airlines could connect the secondary cities (which still would have huge catchment areas) directly to their hub. And i...

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by Aither
Mon Jan 08, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

How do you get these 4x daily ? on long haul routes almost nobody flies more than 2 and then flying above 2 one of the flights is often a 747 or an A380. I agree there are a few counter examples but these are exceptions typically from airlines not having enough such routes to order a sub fleet of 7...

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by Aither
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

That sadly ignores realities like the geographical placement of your hubs. The US3 would face much bigger problems if they would move all traffic to maybe 2 megahubs each, as other airlines could connect the secondary cities (which still would have huge catchment areas) directly to their hub. And i...

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by Aither
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

I think the A380 is a Alliance plane, to connect the hubs in different continents. I think the ideal rotation rate for a alliance between hubs is 4x daily. If a alliance has a demand above 1600 daily passengers (4x 400pax) or 584k passengers annually, a larger plane than the 777 or A350 is required...

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by Aither
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Future of EK
Replies: 48
Views: 10360

Re: The Future of EK

EK will be fine, but in the future I expect they will have lower yields. High-yield traffic prefers direct flights. Connecting traffic in general will always be lower yield. EK, as a superconnector, will basically be put into a situation where they serve two markets... 1. the premium traffic from a...

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by Aither
Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: The Future of EK
Replies: 48
Views: 10360

Re: The Future of EK

Considering the regions around EK are the most populous and fastest growing ones in the world + Etihad & Qatar not going so well, I think it's quite reasonable to think that EK still has a lot of potential to grow, in particular with the new airport. 787-10 serving smaller markets & schedule...

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by Aither
Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:49 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why no praise for Boeing Widebody Sales in 2017 ?
Replies: 44
Views: 5527

Re: Why no praise for Boeing Widebody Sales in 2017 ?

I was surprised to see the A330neo not selling so well. It's the best aircraft for regional routes and airlines with a low utilization rate of their fleet. The best explanation I have is this year most of the widebody orders were coming from airlines with deep pockets. They want the newest stuff tha...

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by Aither
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

And many single aisle routes have reached a frequency of service that provides no yield advantage any more. So growth comes through bigger planes (see A321 market share) and the MoM will dig into that. A380 work in a similar way, but on longhaul there are not that many pairs of destinations that ha...

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by Aither
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

On the side topic of the MoM although I see the logic you should not forget that adding another type of aircraft in a fleet must justified by more than replacing some flights on a handful of high density, typically short haul routes. The thickest routes consume the most number of narrow body aircra...

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by Aither
Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

And many single aisle routes have reached a frequency of service that provides no yield advantage any more. So growth comes through bigger planes (see A321 market share) and the MoM will dig into that. A380 work in a similar way, but on longhaul there are not that many pairs of destinations that ha...

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by Aither
Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

seahawk wrote:
The MoM will do more against slot congestion than the A380 ever could.


If it replaces 2 Embraer flying side by side I think its market will be limited.

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by Aither
Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Is short haul the congestion driver really depends of how you define "congestion": It it's related to runway capacity, yes short haul is the driver. If it's related to passengers flows associated to time preferences and constraints it's a bit more complex: many long haul markets are limite...

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by Aither
Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

I don't think the A380 really needs CASM improvement. Before choosing a CASM you choose a cabin size and a range. You would decide to go for a totally different aircraft type if there is really a large CASM advantage. I don't see the 77X or A350s having a significant, if any, CASM advantage over the...

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by Aither
Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Has the A380 help kill 777X orders does anyone think? 77X is more fighting against the A350-1000. It's tough for the 77X because you need to get a lot of revenues from the extra seats to compensate for a much higher trip cost versus the A350. But in the future if the A380s flying at peak times when...

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by Aither
Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

I think the important question will be this one: Can the market sustain EK selling its 150 used frames if they replace them by 150 new ones? (Read: Will someone buy them at reasonable prices?) They are killing all the potential buyers around them so....maybe the solution for EK is to buy another ai...

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by Aither
Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

EK had a negative impact on the demand of A380s on the transpacific. We can argue by how much but it clearly had a significant one The argument about how much is the whole damn argument. You have to make some kind of case that other airlines would have bought 143 more A380's absent EK. That's how l...

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by Aither
Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Just to clarify- do you believe EK has been a net negative for the A380? Yes. Rather than rehashing that argument fully, I'll just point out that EK is basically a non-factor on TPAC, yet there are very few A380's flying it. Only 1-5 to/from China on TPAC, which was supposedly the A380's raison d'e...

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by Aither
Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Just to clarify- do you believe EK has been a net negative for the A380? Yes. The impact is not limited to Asia-Europe. Some transpac routes were not possible because we could not balance with flights to Europe. CX would probably have ordered an A380 fleet without EK, and use some of these A380s to...

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by Aither
Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Regardless of whether this EK order happens, the fact remains that the program's termination hangs on a customer whose existence Airbus did not foresee, and nothing like the uptake Airbus predicted has come to pass. Unfortunately for the A380 EK was created. Airbus was right to believe in the futur...

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by Aither
Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 87034

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

I think a lot of posters agree that the A380 has limited market appeal. I can't see it ever being operated on the American continent. The ME3 hubs have a unique geographical position which fits very large wide bodies, such as the A380/77W/35J, etc well. . Many hubs have good geographical positions ...

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by Aither
Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Unconfirmed: Korean Air to store first A380 due to low demand, interested in A350
Replies: 57
Views: 12498

Re: Korean Air to store first A380 due to low demand, interested in A350

BS However it is true Korea is suffering from geopolitics and the dumping from Chinese carriers - in particular to Australia. Because of this dumping it is in fact more difficult to open direct routes. This makes routes to major markets/hubs even more important. The major issue with the KAL A380 is...

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by Aither
Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Unconfirmed: Korean Air to store first A380 due to low demand, interested in A350
Replies: 57
Views: 12498

Re: Korean Air to store first A380 due to low demand, interested in A350

BS However it is true Korea is suffering from geopolitics and the dumping from Chinese carriers - in particular to Australia. Because of this dumping it is in fact more difficult to open direct routes. This makes routes to major markets/hubs even more important. The major issue with the KAL A380 is ...

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by Aither
Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380 Production Thread Part 19
Replies: 1486
Views: 193109

Re: A380 Production Thread Part 19

Airbus needs more orders to sustain a rate of 6 per year. Geoff When Airbus initially started the A380 (A3XX) program, they were building some of their assumptions that countries like China & India will benefit the most from a huge aircraft that can move people domestically or internationally. ...

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by Aither
Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is AA going to cancel their A350 order?
Replies: 160
Views: 39611

Re: Is AA going to cancel their A350 order?

I hate to burst your bubble, but the average capacity per flight on transpacific flights has been steadily decreasing over the past 20 years while frequency increases. The market is demanding more city pairs avoiding the main central hubs like LAX and NRT in favor of direct routes like DFW-PVG, whi...

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by Aither
Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is AA going to cancel their A350 order?
Replies: 160
Views: 39611

Re: Is AA going to cancel their A350 order?

I suspect what's happening at AA is similar to other airlines: Many fleet planners are struggling because of 787 orders. Boeing has made CEOs dream they could open plenty of long haul routes with the 787s. The reality is quite different. So now you have these 787s you are forced to use on routes whe...

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by Aither
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United ending Xian
Replies: 108
Views: 19703

Re: United ending Xian

Chinese airlines are now offering decent connections to XIY from dirt cheap international flights. Today Chinese airlines focus on chinese passengers but more and more foreign passengers are aware of the amazing deals they can get when connecting in China. It's just the beginning. It's going to be m...

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by Aither
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2323
Views: 294595

Re: Qantas 'excited' about NMA and assisting Boeing with definition

I've never seen an airline starting to operate a new fleet for 4 short haul routes... At the time, QF bought the 747-400ER subtype almost exclusively for MEL-LAX. Long routes + big aircraft = lots of revenues. So small fleet can make sense there. Short haul + smaller aircraft = minimum fleet size h...

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by Aither
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2323
Views: 294595

Re: Qantas 'excited' about NMA and assisting Boeing with definition

SYDSpotter wrote:
parapente wrote:
Qantas is frankly a small airline on the edge of nowhere.


QF/SQ/CX all have similar market capitalisations...


The point is QF has only 4 regional routes with more than 10 daily flights...
I've never seen an airline starting to operate a new fleet for 4 short haul routes...

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by Aither
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Changi airport tug catches fire while towing SQ 777-200
Replies: 28
Views: 8041

Re: Changi airport tug catches fire while towing SQ 777-200

It's the new "fire class" of SIA...

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by Aither
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model
Replies: 1000
Views: 202298

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

RJMAZ wrote:
If Boeing goes with a full carbon 8AB MOMe


Considering a short/medium haul aircraft spend most of its time on the ground I'm not sure if a high tech highly expensive aircraft is a good solution.

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