Search found 1639 matches

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by frmrCapCadet
Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Amedeo looks to set up airline to utilize A380s
Replies: 43
Views: 5741

Re: Amedeo looks to set up airline to utilize A380s

A fleet of ready to go 380/340/747 or 8 could be useful. When a nursing home needs to evacuate before or after hurricane (etc), it can be life saving to evacuate residents, staff, their children and pets to one location ( "Brother Love's Traveling Salvation Show" song by Neil Diamond: ... ...

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by frmrCapCadet
Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Senate Tax Bill Opens Pandora's Box To Hurt ME3 Carriers
Replies: 71
Views: 6983

Re: Senate Tax Bill Opens Pandora's Box To Hurt ME3 Carriers

Boeing pays a pretty low effective tax, and are famously as good as any US company at avoiding taxes.

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by frmrCapCadet
Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Summary: Airbus and EK have to some degree settled upon a large number of orders largely comparable to previous prices, and probably that Airbus will produce the 380 for ten years. Lessors are uncomfortable with a plane which may not have a life beyond EK's and Singapore's 10-12 years use. Hence con...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Most efficient airports in winter? (Snow)
Replies: 34
Views: 2036

Re: Most efficient airports in winter? (Snow)

Game Playing: what weather (icing, snow removal, where to stockpile snow, fog, combinations thereof, etc) at particular airports causes the most delays, spend money there first; when snow comes what is the dynamics of delays - often it is crews, and passengers getting to the airport - not in the con...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airlander 10 has crashed
Replies: 3
Views: 2413

Re: Airlander 10 has crashed

O no, it slipped the surly bonds of earth .....

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by frmrCapCadet
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

The unknown financial in all of this is costs and prices. How much will Airbus lose or make producing 8 planes a year? A fragile consensus has it making very little, or not losing too much by virtue of careful accounting. Guaranteeing 15 years of production may raise potential losses to a point that...

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Is it possible that Airbus and EK thought they had a deal, and at the last minute Airbus had to back out of it? Or alternatively that EK was ordered to back out. That would leave egg on both parties face, and obviously awkward, but not necessarily malicious.

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

How much customizing could an engine maker afford if only selling 32 engines a year? My suspicion is that even a major PIP would be too expensive.

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by frmrCapCadet
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans
Replies: 514
Views: 67790

Re: Boeing officially forms program office to flesh out 797 plans

MOM main problem: Middles of the Markets. LOL

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by frmrCapCadet
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

The problem with EK going 20 year leases, including extending current leases. Long term that would imply that EK would need say, 5 planes a year to maintain 100 plane fleet. Airbus needs several more planes a year to keep the line going. I do realize it could work for the next several years. A secon...

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by frmrCapCadet
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

While game theory almost always plays a role I suspect that the financial fundamentals are governing most of this. Airbus will do well without the 380, EK will do OK without the 380. It is essential to neither. I suspect that EK would like more 380s more than the board of Airbus wants to sell them.

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by frmrCapCadet
Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Narrowbody order bubble?
Replies: 29
Views: 3576

Re: Narrowbody order bubble?

A and B's recent multi-hundreds orders significance is that the airlines in question are not going to switch to the other. The orders go far into the future. There is a lot of time to wind down those orders or production rates. It is kinda bubbly, but as others note not all that so. Someone more kno...

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by frmrCapCadet
Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

How can an airline demand an aircraft to be produced by any number of years? If Airbus has enough sales, they will build it. But if the sales would not support production in X years, how could anybody expect Airbus to still build them at that time? Does EK expect, that Airbus would just continue to...

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by frmrCapCadet
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aircraft Ordering - LOIs, MOUs, Options, Firm orders, etc
Replies: 8
Views: 780

Re: Aircraft Ordering - LOIs, MOUs, Options, Firm orders, etc

In part it is a matter of SEC or equivalent disclosures. Orders, and likelihood of orders, are information affecting the value of the stock. They need to be reported at appropriate times.

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by frmrCapCadet
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

As well as bad faith bargaining speculation, it is at least as probable that both Airbus and EK are aware of the mutual problems, and have not been able to see a mutually beneficial contract without significant risks for either party. In which case good faith negotiations will continue.

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by frmrCapCadet
Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why do some airlines order a round number of aircraft?
Replies: 18
Views: 4588

Re: Why do some airlines order a round number of aircraft?

Large orders generally include flexibility on delivery dates, particularly the last of the order. And likely even have some 'more or less' built in. If WN orders 150-200 MAXes over the next several years it most likely will be more, but as they need them.

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by frmrCapCadet
Sat Nov 11, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dubai Air Show 2017 - Boeing Orders
Replies: 188
Views: 52986

Re: Dubai Air Show 2017 - Boeing Orders

Given the Regression to the Mean one can/could reasonably expect Airbus to book a lot more orders than Boeing over the next year. It is not a law, but many of us would expect it.

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is the 777-9 in any of the USA Big 3's Future?
Replies: 61
Views: 10218

Re: Is the 777-9 in any of the USA Big 3's Future?

1 Planes are proposed and offered to the market in good times, and so often arrive in the bad market 2 Planes and engines come in easily meeting specs, improvements exceeding specs are announced, or the reverse. 3 The all over airline environment suffers horrible political or terrorist events, or th...

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Comfort really is a bit off topic but I'll weigh in anyway. Some 18 inch seat placements can be more comfortable than others. Think a holiday meal at home. You have 8 comfortable good seats around the table, when suddenly a worthy guest family appears. You add 4 more identical chairs around the tabl...

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by frmrCapCadet
Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA Proposes Change to 1500 Hour for Pilots
Replies: 97
Views: 11138

Re: FAA Proposes Change to 1500 Hour for Pilots

I doubt that there is any flying as intense as 200 mile hops in the Alaskan bush and other such single pilot flying territories. It obviously as not total preparation for 2 engine commercial jet flying, but surely an excellent preparation for further training.

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by frmrCapCadet
Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Analyst predicts Airbus will eventually terminate CSeries program
Replies: 156
Views: 21172

Re: Analyst predicts Airbus will eventually terminate CSeries program

Airbus having a good plane covering sub500 passenger gives Airbus the advantage of concentrating R and D into the larger profitable 320/321/? planes. And a possible C-500 with 180 people and limited range is just frosting on the cake.

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by frmrCapCadet
Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA Proposes Change to 1500 Hour for Pilots
Replies: 97
Views: 11138

Re: FAA Proposes Change to 1500 Hour for Pilots

"Until you can answer the question about where these single airliner pilot Captains will gain their experience, then it’s a moot point, no regulator or insurer will certify or insure them. How will the pilot be trained?" This is making the assumption that all planes will suddenly and alway...

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by frmrCapCadet
Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: HA Engine Fire at SEA
Replies: 22
Views: 7139

Re: HA Engine Fire at SEA

I haven't read anything about a maintenance facility at PAE. Anyone have links for this, just general information?

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by frmrCapCadet
Tue Nov 07, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could anything save the 747?
Replies: 61
Views: 8591

Re: Could anything save the 747?

If Airbus closed the 380 line there likely would be a few more 748i orders. I don't expect either.

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by frmrCapCadet
Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: FAA Proposes Change to 1500 Hour for Pilots
Replies: 97
Views: 11138

Re: FAA Proposes Change to 1500 Hour for Pilots

Has anyone or organization done research into, say, the last 1000 serious airline incidents and looked at the qualifications and hours of the FOs. My suspicion is that low hour people will not be over represented.

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by frmrCapCadet
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Which US Airport Has the Poential to Become the Next Hub?
Replies: 120
Views: 12514

Re: Which US Airport Has the Poential to Become the Next Hub?

From a passenger's point of view a hub is a convenient connecting point to the ultimate destination. And most would like to do it with not more than one stop. This has become increasingly possible throughout the US and the world. The improved 320s/737s have increased the odds of doing this. And the ...

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by frmrCapCadet
Mon Nov 06, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer
Replies: 271
Views: 43972

Re: Bombardier announces LoI for 31 (+30 Options) CSeries from an unnamed European Customer

Have any analysts done revenue versus cost per available seat miles on a C-series versus the smaller 320/737s? And using modern pricing/F,Y,Y+ complicate things.

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by frmrCapCadet
Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What distance is too short for a plane but too far by car?
Replies: 153
Views: 14053

Re: What distance is too short for a plane but too far by car?

By the way, I think this is a fun thread, dozens of different opinions - we all tick a bit differently!

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by frmrCapCadet
Sun Nov 05, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

The 320s and the 330s are what made airbus what it is today. Both spectacular successes.

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by frmrCapCadet
Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Producing those 6-8 planes a year may be cheaper than incurring the costs of shutting down the line. A couple years ago they had a production number that they stated allowed break even, since then they have lowered production a couple times. Not following all the numerous A380 threads but are they ...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is the 777-9 in any of the USA Big 3's Future?
Replies: 61
Views: 10218

Re: Is the 777-9 in any of the USA Big 3's Future?

777Xs will be for all of the 2020s the largest practical plane available. Analogy: it the number of babies born in a given year doubles in 5 years there needs to be a doubling of kindergarten rooms and teachers. The numbers are baked in with the planes now available and about to enter service. The 3...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Which US Airport Has the Poential to Become the Next Hub?
Replies: 120
Views: 12514

Re: Which US Airport Has the Poential to Become the Next Hub?

It may be time to retire the word "Hub" as a metaphor describing certain airports. The original Frontier had the model of slightly up scale and connecting much of the west and east coasts via a Denver Hub. By the book it should have been a smashing success, and was briefly seen as succeedi...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Most a-netters realized the 748i was never going to be a success.This became apparent when it was having troubles meeting its spec, even before entry into service. The 380 despite its problems was exceeding specs, at least in some important areas. The 748i on the other hand was a good plane, but not...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What distance is too short for a plane but too far by car?
Replies: 153
Views: 14053

Re: What distance is too short for a plane but too far by car?

Seattle to Portland is 175 miles, and there are a number of traffic problems throughout the route. About 2 hours and 45 minutes no traffic. The train takes about 4 hours, and sometime before the end of the year there will be 6 instead of 4 daily round trips. This trip at that point should be around ...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus looks outside for Leahy's replacement
Replies: 31
Views: 3587

Re: Airbus looks outside for Leahy's replacement

A typical car salesman sells one car to one customer, over and over. It is not all that common for a car salesman to have a lot of repeat business. Industrial and technical customers rely on repeat business. Every deal puts their credibility on the line. And the customers have long memories. Also I ...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380
Replies: 768
Views: 98300

Re: Airbus Working With Emirates on New Order for Flagship A380

Great news! Especially makes one giggle with the thought of the resident A380 haters here squirming because the damn thing just refuses to fade away. :D The A380 will never fade away as long as Airbus is willing to limp along at 6-8 frames per year and operate at a loss. Every A380 being built will...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Brexit - EU position
Replies: 1115
Views: 21414

Re: Brexit - EU position

Brexit is running out of time. I don't think there are enough negotiators in all of the various realms to come up with agreements with the EU and the rest of the world by Brexit date. So either hard Brexit without agreements, or continue as is for another two years (?). I suspect betting would be on...

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What distance is too short for a plane but too far by car?
Replies: 153
Views: 14053

Re: What distance is too short for a plane but too far by car?

The sweet spot where surface transportation loses ground is about 4 hours of travel time on any ground mode. Below that, both car and rail remain very competitive. I think that is about right. Things that need factoring in and some apply both driving and getting to the airport: Likelihood of facing...

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Does the 787 actually fly any point to point routes?
Replies: 119
Views: 15570

Re: Does the 787 actually fly any point to point routes?

It is an irony that the model for the 380 is much more a one stop than a classical hub-hub. And many of the few 380s that are not ME are being used for LHR-NYC. To rub just a little more salt in the wound, the last 3 to sell are to be used P2P. Clearly the fanboys seeing an major lessening to classi...

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by frmrCapCadet
Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Does the 787 actually fly any point to point routes?
Replies: 119
Views: 15570

Re: Does the 787 actually fly any point to point routes?

These are metaphorical terms and allow a multitude of definitions, or better, usages. All flights are point to point in the most elementary sense. Any flight can be used by someone or airline to fly a specific leg, and hence transfer to another leg. The intermediate airport is the 'hub'. A peculiar ...

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by frmrCapCadet
Sun Oct 29, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Amazon Fleet Growing
Replies: 1716
Views: 266129

Re: Amazon Fleet Growing

How may Amazon fit in with the speculation that Boeing may be selling some 767s to airlines that really want MOMs, and those 767s will, after ten years become freighters? It does seem to many of us that appropriate older 767s are getting fewer. And that some of the older passengers ones may be at th...

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A visual into Alaska Air Group's Q3 performance
Replies: 119
Views: 10312

Re: A visual into Alaska Air Group's Q3 performance

Likely all of the airlines were baffled or rather surprised that LAX to Boston dropped so precipitously.

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A visual into Alaska Air Group's Q3 performance
Replies: 119
Views: 10312

Re: A visual into Alaska Air Group's Q3 performance

The naysayers seem to assume that Alaska would buy Virgin and the merger would be easy and immediately profitable. I do not remember ANY of the proponents of the deal thinking it would be easy. It was long noted that there were some specific and unavoidable snags before it would show promise. It see...

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by frmrCapCadet
Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1557
Views: 115508

Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Likely not a business case, at least for Airbus or Boeing, on a C-series size aircraft family. But definitely Bombardier having built it and two sets of FAL tooling there is an advantage to Airbus buying, supporting, and competing against Boeing with it.

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by frmrCapCadet
Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1557
Views: 115508

Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Likely not a business case, at least for Airbus or Boeing, on a C-series size aircraft family. But definitely Bombardier having built it and two sets of FAL there is an advantage to Airbus buying, supporting, and competing against Boeing with it.

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future CSeries Orders (Post Airbus-Bombardier deal)
Replies: 189
Views: 22019

Re: Future CSeries Orders (Post Airbus-Bombardier deal)

The aspect of fuel price has not much been discusses here. As soon as fuel price goes up - the CS is a win. China alone plans on a million EV (automobiles) next year and 5 million in just a few years. Oil prices are very sensitive to demand reductions. Most observers suspect oil is in trouble. Note...

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership
Replies: 1557
Views: 115508

Re: Airbus and Bombardier Announce CSeries Partnership

Assuming Boeing's first reasonable counter is to move ASAP with the MOM it will, ironically, increase a long term trend. Boeing predominates with two aisle planes, and Airbus competes OK but dominates with the one aisles. An Airbus 322 could do OK, but definitely not Best in Market against a really ...

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by frmrCapCadet
Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production
Replies: 695
Views: 100176

Re: Boeing may consider restarting 767 pax model production

As mentioned earlier planned conversion to freighters could easily be part of the package - both those in passenger service now, and the new ones after X number of years. 767F demand seems almost unlimited.

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