Search found 1481 matches

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by travelhound
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated
Replies: 53
Views: 7951

Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

Why's that? They will have the 787-9s that are replacing them in the fleet by then, and will be looking beyond that to the Sunrise aircraft for future expansion. Alan Joyce is no fan of quads, so it would have to be a pretty compelling case to keep them on longer than 2020. Simply, I am skeptical o...

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by travelhound
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian reports FY financial results and other developments
Replies: 19
Views: 2607

Re: Ethiopian reports FY financial results and other developments

Considering Ethiopia's proximity to the UAE and Qatar, their success and subsequent expansion suggest there is still latent demand for carriers in the region. My initial thoughts about the misfortunes of Etihad revolved around the ME3 reaching a structural market ceiling. I think I may have to chang...

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by travelhound
Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2018 Orders
Replies: 379
Views: 91468

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2018 Orders

There is a difference between firm orders and the MOIs, LOIs and options everybody gets so exited about at the airshows. I think not everything is confirmed from last years show in Paris yet. That's not the issue. Let's quote the press release Airbus put out at the end of the show. "During the...

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by travelhound
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 737-10MAX serves a different role to the A321NEO?
Replies: 50
Views: 9368

Re: 737-10MAX serves a different role to the A321NEO?

QANTAS have stated they are looking at putting a premium economy product into their new Jetstar A321NEO aircraft. The reason, in a full economy class configuration rhe aircraft won't have the range for key markets such as sydney-bali (3240nm), etc. The 737-10 is simply not capable of flying this rou...

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by travelhound
Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reduction of 787 deferred production cost slows.
Replies: 288
Views: 19901

Re: Reduction of 787 deferred production cost slows.

If you start a cleaning business where its only assets are a car (on finance) and sundry cleaning materials, does that mean the business becomes bankrupt if the government allows the car to be fully depreciated in the year it was purchased. Or because the car has a book value of $1.00 in and a finan...

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by travelhound
Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reduction of 787 deferred production cost slows.
Replies: 288
Views: 19901

Re: Reduction of 787 deferred production cost slows.

I refer to some of my earlier posts about indirect costs. The linked CPA article discusses the use of the time-and-materials method for long-term contracts. If Boeing has entered into contracts with a its suppliers using this method, the cost of a part would be based upon a prorata of the facility c...

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by travelhound
Tue Jul 31, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reduction of 787 deferred production cost slows.
Replies: 288
Views: 19901

Re: Reduction of 787 deferred production cost slows.

It would not reduce liabilities, so the balance sum stays the same. It would boost the negative equity to somewhere near 25 billion USD, or somewhere near 28 billion if one includes the tooling and so on. I think you do not understand it. The money is spent and it was either coming out of the free ...

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by travelhound
Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2017
Replies: 654
Views: 54985

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2017

The A330-300's have already been earmarked for replacement with 787-10's, but this probably won't be till the 2021-2023 period. Although, I suspect QF will order some of these aircraft for delivery in the 2019-2021 period to cater for growth in market.

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by travelhound
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Asia may swap entire a330neo order to a350
Replies: 148
Views: 28256

Re: Air Asia may swap entire a330neo order to a350

With 66 A330NEO's on order and a current A330 fleet of 29 aircraft, I am not too surprised AirAsiaX doesn't yet know what they will be doing with all of those aircraft as yet. Another consideration could be the pending sale of the leasing business. I'd suggest potential buyers would be evaluating th...

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by travelhound
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: When will Virgin Australia expand its network?
Replies: 26
Views: 3536

Re: When will Virgin Australia expand its network?

I'd suggest the core route network would be a very profitable standalone business for Virgin Australia. The issues probably stem from the regional and wide body networks that are a significant drain on company profits. Once VirgIn Australia has completed its restructure (making itself something like...

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by travelhound
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air Asia may swap entire a330neo order to a350
Replies: 148
Views: 28256

Re: Air Asia may swap entire a330neo order to a350

Could be a financing issue! Air Asia use a financing model where new aircraft are financed through sale and lease back arrangements. From my understanding the sale price to the lessor / financing body is greater than the purchase price from the OEM resulting in a cash windfall for every aircraft del...

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by travelhound
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2017
Replies: 654
Views: 54985

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2017

It looks like QANTAS are using their asset pool as collateral. This could be two edged sword. I suspect the terms of the contract will be based around the liquidity of assets rather than collateral on a asset, where the financier takes on the (relatively low) risk. This deal could unencumber aircraf...

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by travelhound
Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2017
Replies: 395
Views: 38111

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2017

From what I am can work out VA is trying to transform itself back to something a tad more luxurious than the old VB.

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by travelhound
Sat Sep 23, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27717

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

When considering the 787 deferred costs we have to consider these costs at a program level, not a business level As the Boeing company is made up of a variety of businesses, with each business (we would assume) being a profit centre in itself the issue of program accounting becomes a little more com...

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by travelhound
Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27717

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

Wow. If the market turned Boeing could simply generate cash internally by reducing their spend on R&D, reducing staff levels and re-structuring their businesses through consolidation of current assets. Boeing generates very healthy free cash flows, even with the 787 program cost overruns, develo...

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by travelhound
Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27717

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production to 14x per month

My thoughts, Boeing wouldn't accelerate production 3 years ago with 230 more 787s in the backlog as there wasn't enough demand. Now Boeing will ramp up production. To me, that means sales. Who? Sales would make sense in some way. However, if (much) more sales were in the cards, why would the accoun...

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by travelhound
Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27717

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

My guess of potential 787 orders for delivery in the 2020-2025 period. 10 each - Air Canada 20 each - Air China 10 each - Air Europa 30 each - Air France / KLM 10 each - Air India 30 each - ANA 50 each - American Airlines 10 each - Avianca 20 each - British Airways 20 each - China Eastern 30 each - ...

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by travelhound
Fri Sep 15, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27717

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

The 787 program is currently generating profits even though the 787-10 is still in development. Considering the 10 is the largest and most expensive model of the 787 family, you would have to think the 787 program will start to generate substantial profits once the aircraft starts being delivered to...

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by travelhound
Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block
Replies: 270
Views: 27717

Re: Boeing to accelerate 787 production, increases accounting block

My analysis shows existing 787 customers have a requirement for an additional 650 aircraft up till 2025. If we assume the 787 will be the aircraft of choice for 2 out of 3 purchases, there will be a requirement for an additional 400 aircraft on top of the existing backlog of 700 aircraft. 1100 aircr...

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by travelhound
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MH to place order for 25 widebodies by end of 2017
Replies: 266
Views: 59899

Re: MH to place order for 25 widebodies by end of 2017

I always look at TAP Portugal and Finnair as examples when comparing the economics of the A330NEO and A350/787. Finnair ordered the A350 for flights to Asia as it was the best suited for the missions they fly, whereas TAP P ordered the A330NEO as it was the best suited for their route network (South...

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by travelhound
Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR
Replies: 157
Views: 32191

Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

...but, you would think there would be other airlines higher up in the pecking order.

I can understand Airbus overselling slots over the longer term, but to be over selling slots for deliveries in two years time just doesn't make any sense.

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by travelhound
Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 as starting point Large NMA / MoM, unlikely?
Replies: 110
Views: 16164

Re: Boeing 787 as starting point Large NMA / MoM, unlikely?

The Boeing MOM conversation has always revolved around 787 technologies, not the actual 787. As such Boeing are probably looking at leveraging the industry that sits behind the 787. Considering all of the engineers, technologies, manufacturing processes and manufacturing plants are already in place ...

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by travelhound
Sun Aug 27, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2017
Replies: 550
Views: 54616

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2017

Just a thought.

With the interior upgrades of the A380's almost dedicated to the upper deck, it could be the case the lower deck could be upgraded with eleven abreast economy seating in future

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by travelhound
Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR
Replies: 157
Views: 32191

Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

Are all of QF's A380's owned, or are some of them leased? If leased, what is QF's policy with them? What is their depreciation strategy? Just asking because 12 years since their first delivery would come up in 2020. The A380's were financed through syndicate loans, which, at a guess would have twel...

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by travelhound
Tue Aug 22, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR
Replies: 157
Views: 32191

Re: Qantas to convert remaining A380 order to A350-900ULR (rumor)

QANTAS and the A350 could be associated more with the opportunity factor of opening up new markets in the 2019-2022 period than the benefits of the A350 over the 787/777. For me a question revolves around why Airbus have delivery slots available in 2019 to offer QANTAS. I would have thought there wo...

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by travelhound
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia announces a net loss of $185 million for FY16/17
Replies: 103
Views: 10688

Re: Virgin Australia announces a net loss of $185 million for FY16/17

The results are telling us that the mainline operations (domestic) will shortly be back in profit. With the loss making regional arm essentially closed down, the bulk of the A330's transferred to the International operation and thecretructuring almost complete the market is probably saying hey, this...

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by travelhound
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia announces a net loss of $185 million for FY16/17
Replies: 103
Views: 10688

Re: Virgin Australia announces a net loss of $185 million for FY16/17

On the whole I agree with tour argument, but I think it is important to note the turn around plan introduced by Alan Joyce was ultimately the move that brought JB's and SRB's grandiose Virgin Australia airline plan to a financial end. We have to remember that at the time AJ was not only fighting VA,...

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by travelhound
Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia announces a net loss of $185 million for FY16/17
Replies: 103
Views: 10688

Re: Virgin Australia announces a net loss of $185 million for FY16/17

I don't lay all of the blame at the feet of JB. At the start the transformation to Virgin Australia was really kicking some goals (7% market share gain in a couple of years). The Virgin Australia business plan ultimately failed because it underestimated the resolve of Alan Joyce and QANTAS. Even tho...

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by travelhound
Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia announces a net loss of $185 million for FY16/17
Replies: 103
Views: 10688

Re: Virgin Australia announces a net loss of $185 million for FY16/17

I think quite a few people have missed quite a few things. Out of the 94 aircraft Virgin Australia directly operate only two of them (737-700) are owned. The rest are either leased or financed through a Virgin Australia syndicate loan. The syndicate loans effectively transfer debt from Virgin Austra...

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by travelhound
Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough
Replies: 323
Views: 26075

Re: Leeham: 787 deferred cost not shrinking fast enough

The problem with these endless arguments about program accounting is that we ultimately don't know what costs are associated with the deferred $30bn being mentioned. With Boeing investing heavily in buildings, plant and equipment it is not unreasonable to suggest a proportion of the $30bn would be m...

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by travelhound
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017
Replies: 378
Views: 40102

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017

The irony of the VA and QF battle is what the two airlines ultimately achieved. For the old Virgin Blue, they aspired to be a QANTAS light and as such changed their predominant single 737 aircraft strategy / simple business model / single market to one with multiple aircraft types and multiple marke...

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by travelhound
Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017
Replies: 378
Views: 40102

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017

Hey guys... Is it possible that a quiet switch from MAX8s to MAX10s has allowed Virgin Australia to incorporate Mint without sacrificing too many seats due to the longer fuselage, but at the cost of range? After all as I understand it, Virgin Australia and Boeing have lately referred to VA's order ...

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by travelhound
Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Japan Airlines outlines A350 strategy
Replies: 66
Views: 19038

Re: Japan Airlines outlines A350 strategy

Maybe JL foresee the LCC's being more prominent in the marketplace.

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by travelhound
Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017
Replies: 378
Views: 40102

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017

With work on the inland freight rail line about to start (2-3 years), there should be a fair amount of opportunity for these smaller airlines to start RPT services between regional centres on the proposed route.

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by travelhound
Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Randy Tinseth
Replies: 19
Views: 3080

Re: Randy Tinseth

The blog was a part of Boeings marketing efforts. I'd suggest the blog is no longer relevant for Boeing in todays world, so it was discontinued.

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by travelhound
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017
Replies: 378
Views: 40102

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017

The last revision of the QF livery was based more around integrating the QANTAS brand in its marketing activities (print / electronic media) than having the tales of the planes with a revised kangaroo. The revised design allowed the kangaroo emblem to better integrate (normally with a full width ban...

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by travelhound
Wed Jul 12, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What Will Replace UA's 777-200A Aircraft?
Replies: 72
Views: 15678

Re: What Will Replace UA's 777-200A Aircraft?

787-10's

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by travelhound
Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X - Updated Information And Developments
Replies: 2650
Views: 255566

Re: Boeing 777X - Updated Information And Developments

I suspect in the year 2030-40 period there will be a totally new suite of technologies that will ultimately render the current A350 and 777 redundant. If this is the case product releases may be based around treading water, rather than releasing the best technology product available!

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by travelhound
Thu Jul 06, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X - Updated Information And Developments
Replies: 2650
Views: 255566

Re: Boeing 777X - Updated Information And Developments

Out of the 45 customers who have ordered the A350, 21 of them are current 777 operators. So that means in the ten years the aeroplane has been in the market, only twenty one of the fifty five 777 airline operators have seen the A350 as an alternative. Not a glowing endorsement in my book. If we cons...

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by travelhound
Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Viet Bamboo plans to order 15 737 Max 9 and 5 777X
Replies: 33
Views: 8456

Re: Viet Bamboo To Order 15 737 Max 9 and 5 777X

In the scheme of things the size of the order is not that large when we consider the size of the Asian and Russian tourist markets and their appetite for tropical / sub-tropical package tours in the region. We only have to look at the size of the Egyptian package tours market to come to an understan...

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by travelhound
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017
Replies: 378
Views: 40102

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2017

My thoughts exactly. If we look at the constitution of the board, there are enough headaches there alone, never mind the added pressures of VA's current position within the market place and its financial standing. Any new CEO would have a hard time just making a decision, never mind taking the airli...

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by travelhound
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017
Replies: 292
Views: 39186

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2017

Jetstar Hong Kong......turning in its grave? http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/aviation/pansy-ho-still-has-high-hopes-for-jetstar-hong-kong/news-story/79d73b1b28739dea23decd6049cc16e4 Yes, it will all be about timing. ...and if Jetstar Hong Kong does emerge from the grave, the focus will be ...

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by travelhound
Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797/MOM Discussion Thread
Replies: 585
Views: 81792

Re: 797/MOM Discussion Thread

From where I sit an MOM to be successful it would need to be a viable aircraft for short haul routes (1000-2000nm), just as much as it would need to be viable for medium haul routes (4000-5000nm). Many have commented the market appeal for this aircraft could revolve around LCC's. If this is the case...

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by travelhound
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 2017 Paris Air Show - Boeing News and Orders
Replies: 411
Views: 92847

Re: 2017 Paris Air Show - Boeing News and Orders

Oh really, The 737-10MAX has garnered orders for 300+ aircraft. It doesn't matter if these orders were LOI's, MOU's, conversions from a different model or brand new orders, the magnitude and breadth of orders suggest the market at large accepts this aircraft as a viable competitor to the A321NEO. Wh...

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by travelhound
Fri Jun 23, 2017 5:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 2017 Paris Air Show - Airbus News And Orders
Replies: 264
Views: 74097

Re: 2017 Paris Air Show - Airbus News And Orders

Oh really, The 737-10MAX has garnered orders for 300+ aircraft. It doesn't matter if these orders were LOI's, MOU's, conversions from a different model or brand new orders, the magnitude and breadth of orders suggest the market at large accepts this aircraft as a viable competitor to the A321NEO. Wh...

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by travelhound
Thu Jun 22, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 125 737-8MAX order to Undisclosed Customer.
Replies: 117
Views: 33031

Re: Boeing 125 737-8MAX order to Undisclosed Customer.

My bets are on one of the three US majors. The flurry of orders at the Paris air show may have been enough for one of these airlines to pull the trigger on an order to ensure they secure delivery slots for growth / replacement of aircraft. I’d suggest airlines like SouthWest and RyanAir would alread...

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by travelhound
Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 2017 Paris Air Show - Boeing News and Orders
Replies: 411
Views: 92847

Re: 2017 Paris Air Show - Boeing News and Orders

So essentially 154 all new orders and 292 all new commitments. (vs 122 and 95 for Airbus) I think Boeing will go home happy this week. The 737-10 was so needed. Rgds I'm a bit taken aback by just how well the MAX 10 has done, albeit partly at the expense of the 8 and 9 models. I didn't think merely...

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