Search found 586 matches

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by texl1649
Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Boeing build its new mid-market aircraft in Washington?
Replies: 119
Views: 9492

Re: Will Boeing build its new mid-market aircraft in Washington?

There are two critical Boeing moves coming up. Site decisions for this project and the Embraer combo org will be interesting. I do think the wings will be built at the new cwc facility for the NMA in Washington. The cockpit section will surely still be sourced from Wichita (spirit). I’m not sure whe...

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by texl1649
Wed Jun 06, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates looking to Windowless planes [BBC]
Replies: 151
Views: 14843

Re: Emirates looking to Windowless planes [BBC]

It would make P2F conversions a lot cheaper/easier. With carbon frames, I've wondered if this, in conjunction with wider/easier loading doors, might make pax/cargo switches a lot easier overall. Isn't EK the worlds largest freight carrier, btw?

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by texl1649
Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus is considering A350-1000ULR
Replies: 77
Views: 18321

Re: Airbus is considering A350-1000ULR

This seems like about the very last thing I'd want Airbus to throw cash at developing, if I were a shareholder. I get that sales campaign losses are embarrassing, but why lower margins and limit other developmental programs to go after a dozen or two frames? An A389 (with something somehow modernizi...

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by texl1649
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ANZ looks for 77E replacement; must be able to fly non stop to N and S America East Coast
Replies: 50
Views: 8031

Re: ANZ looks for 77E replacement; must be able to fly non stop to N and S America East Coast

This could really go either way, nothing would be too surprising really. I'd favor the A350 nominally, but the 77W fleet is only 6 years old, and the 787 only 2, so it would certainly seem the common type rating (if applicable) on the 77X might be favorable, and this is one of those cases where, per...

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by texl1649
Mon Jun 04, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus sales chief defiant on A330neo demand as Boeing seals new win
Replies: 132
Views: 26294

Re: Airbus sales chief defiant on A330neo demand as Boeing seals new win

The 787 already also has a .5 generation max “available” if you want to call the rolls “available”. The future GE version will no doubt end the drama vs A330 for good, if it doesn’t happen sooner. The CFM DC8 were great planes in their day too, just not quite good enough.

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by texl1649
Mon May 21, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Zambia Aiways to relaunch Oct.24th 2018 with Emb-195 or CSeries
Replies: 22
Views: 3174

Re: Zambia Aiways to relaunch Oct.24th 2018 with Emb-195 or CSeries

How would they be able to get a hold of C-Series aircraft by October? Obviously, it will be a new Zambian production line. Or they will just steal Delta slots, or Airbus will magically create frames and engines. Because if you are relaunching a 3rd world airline into a poverty stricken country in A...

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by texl1649
Mon May 21, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 39681

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

It would seem the only thing 95% of us could agree on is that at some point, a future version of the A32X series will be launched. It's inconceivable with it's backlog today that this wouldn't be the case, absent some radical NMA derivative that forces Airbus to change gears entirely (I can't see th...

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by texl1649
Sun May 20, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest may take 500 MAX 7
Replies: 83
Views: 23435

Re: Southwest may take 500 MAX 7

Leeham has been saying for about a year they’d go for mainly max8. I don’t think Boeing cares, but I’m sure their unions do. The US rule is a flight attendant for each 50 pax. SWA has built their model around three.

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by texl1649
Fri May 18, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UA RFQ now ongoing for 767 replacement?
Replies: 215
Views: 29325

Re: UA RFQ now ongoing for 767 replacement?

There remains only one widebody in production that isn’t sold out for several years. This particular campaign isn’t really a big deal though, as far as I can see. It’s pretty logical unless somehow or some way Boeing wends in some NMA conversion options/prices.

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by texl1649
Thu May 17, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: V-280 Valor flies for the first time
Replies: 34
Views: 5830

Re: V-280 Valor flies for the first time

V280 has now reached 190 knots. Lot's of hours. I am not sure of the cost delta vs. the fully updated/modernized UH60 derivatives, but I don't see a lot of extra costly/components, similar engine power etc. Throw a FATE set of engines on it, and the wing being about 30-40 percent cheaper to make vs....

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by texl1649
Tue May 15, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Theoretical 777-based replacement for 747?
Replies: 178
Views: 21620

Re: Theoretical 777-based replacement for 747?

I’ll just add one final point: a big part of any fleet decision involves details such as crew planning, and residual value. Since used A380 are basically worthless for secondary operators, the plane is almost twice as expensive for any future prospective new buyer. Airbus’ gross neglect in planning ...

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by texl1649
Tue May 15, 2018 8:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Theoretical 777-based replacement for 747?
Replies: 178
Views: 21620

Re: Theoretical 777-based replacement for 747?

If you threw out EK and LH pax orders as aberrations/massively discounted launch clients, both the A380and 747 have sold a combined 300 or so since the A380was launched, about 20 years ago. As it is they both round to about 300. The majority by far of the 747 are for freighters. There is no factual ...

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by texl1649
Mon May 14, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Theoretical 777-based replacement for 747?
Replies: 178
Views: 21620

Re: Theoretical 777-based replacement for 747?

Again I think much of this discussion misses the point; the 747 was queen for ages not due to her size, but her unrivaled range. Sure, Boeing will unveil a 777-10X version at some point in the next 3-5 years, but the twin ranges don't really leave a big space for some huge 600 seater or whatever. It...

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by texl1649
Fri May 04, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: British Airways in talks to order Boeing Widebodies
Replies: 170
Views: 33457

Re: British Airways in talks to order Boeing Widebodies

I guess I'll be the loner who is skeptical on the elimination of RR for any future 787 orders for BA. I'm sure they'd get a killer deal, but the long term commonality and MRO relationships are tough to break.

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet
Replies: 229
Views: 26657

Re: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet

I think the SQ fleet is a kind of unique, substantial (22 aircraft), very young (15 delivered since 2013), with the most popular (Trent700) engines. No surprise they are easily finding new homes. Most A330 of the line today go to China. I can see A330 follow-up orders from China soon. Well you’d ce...

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet
Replies: 229
Views: 26657

Re: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet

It’s not really common to replace an aircraft with the same type, at least from a widebody perspective (747 in its hey day excepted). Typically, substantial generational gains are available. 330NEO win rate seems to be an average example. UA and the 767 affair, to mention an example (as many others...

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet
Replies: 229
Views: 26657

Re: Airbus Cuts Production Plans for A330 Jet

It’s not really common to replace an aircraft with the same type, at least from a widebody perspective (747 in its hey day excepted). Typically, substantial generational gains are available. 330NEO win rate seems to be an average example.

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by texl1649
Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing weighs using Dreamlifters to increase 767 output.
Replies: 61
Views: 13819

Re: Boeing weighs using Dreamlifters to increase 767 output.

You can’t. There is a legal limit on how many you can have without certification. The solution long term is consolidating 787 production in Charleston which reduces the flights needed by a huge amount. Not going to happen and CHS isn’t large enough. Do you know the Everett plant is the largest buil...

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by texl1649
Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Lockheed to pitch hybrid "F-22/F-35" design for export to Japan
Replies: 45
Views: 4090

Re: Lockheed to pitch hybrid "F-22/F-35" design for export to Japan

I suspect for this mission they will favor a twin engine in any case. Raptor rear end/wing/engineering, with more of the front of the f35 and newer avionics/integration might make some sense. Existing engines, greater stealth, more weapons carriage ability, twin engines for long range ocean patrolli...

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by texl1649
Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing crushes earnings estimates, raises 2018 forecast
Replies: 99
Views: 10299

Re: Boeing crushes earnings estimates, raises 2018 forecast

Boeing has always been fiscal oriented. The difference now is that they have improved production processes to better monetize the backlog. If the 797 goes ahead a big tell will be the development costs. Based on what they did today I would expect $15-$20 billion in R&D spread from a summer laun...

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by texl1649
Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing crushes earnings estimates, raises 2018 forecast
Replies: 99
Views: 10299

Re: Boeing crushes earnings estimates, raises 2018 forecast

R&D is actually down about 10 percent for the quarter vs. the same in 2017. Some will no doubt celebrate the absolute market share, and ever increasing backlog, but I see particularly the latter as a great liability. A 486 billion backlog means there are years of liabilities and an inability to ...

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by texl1649
Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 39681

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

You can but you need to be very careful about different stiffness ratios, thermal expansion ratios and other issues like galvanic corrosion etc. at the interfaces. IMU the A380 ribs combining CFRP webbing with Al attachment feet was a good example of the inherent issues. Yes, that was one case I wa...

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 23, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: Boeing to implement structural design change in 787-8 for production commonality
Replies: 34
Views: 8114

Re: Leeham: Boeing to implement structural design change in 787-8 for production commonality

This is simply about reducing the cost to build a 788. In that sense it is a very smart move by Boeing. There are rumors Boeing is also doing this as a precursor to moving the entire 787 line to Charleston to free up space for the 797 production line in Seattle. All 787 and NMA will eventually be i...

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by texl1649
Sat Apr 21, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 39681

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

One element of the NMA sketch I haven’t seen much commentary on is that the actual Boeing one seems to show a 767 style cockpit (also 777/757), rather than the 787, and a max tailcone.

Do these elements imply it would actually be an aluminum frame?

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by texl1649
Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model
Replies: 1000
Views: 202259

Re: Airbus weighs response if Boeing launches new mid-market model

An A32x re-wing might make sense in an abstract sense, but the question is to what end? They have a backlog between 797 launch and EIS of around 6,000 frames to deliver, and it's a 30 year old frame at this point, with no model length adjustment ever having been made (I would assume for good reasons...

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by texl1649
Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 Scrapping
Replies: 82
Views: 21094

Re: 787 Scrapping

Carbon fiber is pretty worthless. It won't be used for much. Once the resin is burned out it's usually weaker/shorter strands than when new. So, it could become "cheap" carbon fiber in tennis rackets/golf clubs and other consumer items. Not sure it's worth it for the short term limited sto...

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by texl1649
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Spirit Airlines eyes other aircraft for its next RFP
Replies: 117
Views: 11721

Re: Bloomberg: Spirit May Buy E190 or CS100

I’m a believer. These planes are perfect for secondary city pairs, with similar economics to the larger mainline narrowbodies but the mainline carriers unions scope clauses have basically made it impossible for the larger carriers to compete here, in the US. This of course opens the window for a “ne...

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by texl1649
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: JetSuiteX moving to DFW and growing to 100 RJs
Replies: 37
Views: 7429

Re: JetSuiteX moving to DFW and growing to 100 RJs

No way Addison has capacity for even 25 more jets being stationed there. Alliance Fort Worth would be my bet, or something south of town. Love field is still the ideal business jet airport tho, for downtown dallas.

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by texl1649
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Spirit Airlines eyes other aircraft for its next RFP
Replies: 117
Views: 11721

Re: Spirit Airlines eyes Boeing aircraft for its next RFP.

No LCC would switch from airbus to 737, like Ryanair, right? They are a big enough outfit now to have both types. It’s surely not like passenger comfort etc are their key goals. Reliability, price, delivery slots, services, all probably play a bigger role than many would guess. I sure doubt they go ...

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by texl1649
Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will the ME3 become irrelevant?
Replies: 63
Views: 7949

Re: Will the ME3 become irrelevant?

Within a decade, while there may be multiple brands under these umbrellas, flying internationally, we will have the EU2, US2, ME2, plus some country niche players. And only two airline alliances, which could be none of the current three. And two engine OEM's. I don't see how the US3 (plus SWA domes...

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by texl1649
Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 314
Views: 39681

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

So the same folks arguing there's no NMA need, would advocate for investing a billion dollars to create a 30 ton lighter A338 with a similar EIS? Somehow I don't think Airbus goes this route, right on the heal of cancelling the A32X future option/derivatives project. If they want to maintain 40 perc...

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2318
Views: 293774

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

Thanks for posting/re posting the latest JonO's words and pic's on the 797. Key quote. The yet-to-be-launched NMA is slated to arrive in 2025. First with the base model, the NMA-6X (225 passengers at 5,000nm) and the NMA-7X (265 passengers at 4,500nm) two years later, according to two people famili...

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 09, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16379

Re: Future of the A338

The real question is always timing. The 338 pax window would close firmly if/when there is both a NMA (available for delivery) and a 788 max. But even today, the 767 production line will soldier on for at least a decade, so I’m not sure it’s a waste to offer the 338, as an available simple little br...

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 565
Views: 74357

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

The 789 has about 141 cubic meters by comparison to about 200 on the 772. Only a 747 can even compete with a 777 on belly freight/space/capacity, though both of the 789/772 can max out in weight at around 60K in the cargo hold, theoretically.

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by texl1649
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 565
Views: 74357

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Let’s not forget any NMA launch will also be the basis for a NSA. AA is likely to be an early user of both. Their max needs are pretty limited since they’ve basically finished off the md80 series at this point.

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by texl1649
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 565
Views: 74357

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

It is going to be amusing to read the ‘Airbus blogs’ write this up, and not note how they had indicated the formerly US management at AA favored the A350 and NEO lines.

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by texl1649
Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2318
Views: 293774

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

I think the A330R failure to win big sales in China is odd. They do seem to fly a silly amount of long distance aircraft relatively short distances; this fact would disfavor a smaller/efficient widebody I think. Relative to this discussion, the CR929 or whatever is only going to have about 30-80 mor...

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2318
Views: 293774

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

The idea for the lower edge NSA would be to be really optimized instead of compromized. It would not also have to be able to fly >2000NM with >200 passengers. It would have small, light wing, smaller engines etc. Making it very competive for LCC and the vast majority of todays NB flights. But not f...

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by texl1649
Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2318
Views: 293774

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

If Boeing is really intent on 'derisking' the production/new product pipeline, the largest NSA could launch with the 797 I suppose, using a downrated version of the latter's LEAP based engine. We kind of sort of "know" the two 797 versions shown this fall were the -6 and -7. Then they'd ha...

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by texl1649
Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas proposes amenities in the cargo hold for ultra long flights
Replies: 76
Views: 12598

Re: Alan Joyce floats the idea of "Cargo class"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... rce=images
-->

Airbus and Boeing alike have floated some interesting ideas that could be used to load a modular steerage lounge area.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... rce=images

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by texl1649
Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will GTF bypass ratios put (current) large twins in jeopardy?
Replies: 30
Views: 6342

Re: Will GTF bypass ratios put (current) large twins in jeopardy?

Tail mounted trijets, above/behind a lifting body (Aurora D8 style) are probably inevitable at some point as jacking up the frames via landing gear or oddball wing arrangements aren't particularly appealing for safety (think gear up) or weight reasons alike. I do wonder if at some point two fans dri...

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by texl1649
Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pressure mounts on Airbus A330 in widebody order battle
Replies: 283
Views: 37916

Re: Pressure mounts on Airbus A330 in widebody order battle

Would it be possible in certain regions for there to be a discounted section(s) for pax weighing less than, say, 135lbs, or even 150 in the narrowest seat classes with vastly more limited carry ons? I can see in the “race to the bottom” pax agreeing to a weight check prior to boarding. No in flight ...

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by texl1649
Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pressure mounts on Airbus A330 in widebody order battle
Replies: 283
Views: 37916

Re: Pressure mounts on Airbus A330 in widebody order battle

So far as I know there is no thread on this. The two NBs, the 330s, the 787s, the 777s have all been stretched to the maximum their bones allow. Ironically Airbus hoped to do the same with the 380. The smaller and shorter legged versions of these planes are not economical and have been abandoned. I...

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by texl1649
Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X CEO in Seattle discussing 787-10
Replies: 92
Views: 13172

Re: AirAsia X CEO in Seattle discussing 787-10

Not a lot of high level contract negotiation team members on a.net. Talk is indeed very cheap, and I really doubt this means all that much. My SWAG is that we will wind up seeing a much greater number of 787-A350/A330NEO operators over the next 20 years than are planned today. There's not much wrong...

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by texl1649
Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer considers aircraft family below E-jet <80 seats.
Replies: 34
Views: 5898

Re: Embraer considers aircraft family below E-jet <80 seats.

The Zunum Boeing Embraer tie ins here are pretty clear strategically. Possibly, concepts from the Aurora acquisition (such as lightning strike) will be used too. Could the new joint venture HQ be in Virginia where Aurora is? The engineering prowess of these three groups, with Brazilian manufacturing...

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by texl1649
Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer considers aircraft family below E-jet <80 seats.
Replies: 34
Views: 5898

Re: Embraer considers aircraft family below E-jet <80 seats.

I don’t think it makes sense to design a new plane around what are becoming, increasingly obvious, silly regional scope clauses. If an aircraft makes sense, the unions and pilots in the US need to figure out how to accommodate their employers use of it. At some point in the next five to ten years, o...

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by texl1649
Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer considers aircraft family below E-jet <80 seats.
Replies: 34
Views: 5898

Re: Embraer considers aircraft family below E-jet <80 seats.

Well, I guess us electric dreamers [url]can keep our hopes up for no[/url]w. https://leehamnews.com/2018/03/06/hawaiian-orders-787-cancels-a330-800-embraer-ponder-electric-plane-not-jet/#more-26521 I'm sure this has nothing at all to do with Boeing/Aurora tie up. /sarcasm. Instead, EMB sees the need...

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by texl1649
Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Embraer considers aircraft family below E-jet <80 seats.
Replies: 34
Views: 5898

Re: Embraer considers aircraft family below E-jet <80 seats.

If allowed to dream, something vaguely similar to the Piaggio 180, but four or five times larger, and adding an electrical hybrid 3rd power source would sure be interesting. The first 12 frames were built in Wichita near the 737 line, after all. Another option perhaps, which I haven't seen discussed...

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by texl1649
Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pax and Pilots are complaining about lavatories in AA B737-MAX
Replies: 215
Views: 38374

Re: Pax and Pilots hate AA B737-Max

Good reminder for me to enjoy one of my last AA MD flights today.

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by texl1649
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta 717 and the C series
Replies: 41
Views: 6722

Re: Delta 717 and the C series

Does anyone really think a Pratt GTF will be able to handle island hopping high cycle duties any time soon?

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