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Sydscott

Re: Alaska / Hawaiian Air Merger Discussion

While still losing $$ OK than good luck lol. The legacy HA operation becomes profitable when plugged into the much larger AS operation. This is adding 2+2 and getting 5. I will believe that when I see it. IMO, the HA network is going to change once AS takes over. Yeah it will change as will Alaska'...

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Sydscott

Re: AA Aircraft Order Coming - Return of the A350?

Did you read the article? The 319s and 320s will be retrofit (including larger F cabins at 'Unfortunately no. Although they're adding a row in First Class, the overall density is going up, at least on the a319's by 6 seats. Considering how uncomfortable coach is on the LAA 319's this is not a good ...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Network - 2024

With more China slots available, wonder if AA would think about adding DFW-PEK or perhaps SEA-PVG (although much less likely). UA just beat them (and DL) to LAX-PVG and there isn't room for more than one player now. UA also double-downed on HKG. They appear to be unstopable in the Pacific. If deman...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Network - 2024

Already mentioned but worth repeating: AA has a scope clause allowing them to expand their large regional jet (RJ) fleet as long as their mainline narrowbody fleet grows. However, DAL and UAL are restricted by hard limits on the number of large RJs they can operate due to scope restrictions. Each o...

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Sydscott

Re: AA orders 85 Airbus A321neo, 85 Boeing 737 MAX 10 and 90 Embraer E175 aircraft

Scope. The E2 is still too chunky to keep under the scope weight limits. Interestingly, with 90 new E175s, we know that AA is going to be using these 170 mainline aircraft for a MINIMUM of a 120 new aircraft growth for narrowbodies, since AA's scope requires a 75% ratio for large RJs. So this order...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Fleet - 2024

It appears as though AA is expected to make an announcement on March 4th for a significant order of new aircraft, with a mix of narrow and wide body planes. The date coincides with AA's Investor Day. What's interesting is there is discussion about AA eyeing the A350 as a possible 777-200ER replacem...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Network - 2024

If AA ever started charging for carry-on bags, business travelers like me would revolt and take my business elsewhere. I rarely check bags because I refuse to spend 20-30 minutes of absolutely wasted time standing around in baggage claim waiting for my bag to arrive and crossing my fingers that it ...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Network - 2024

Anyone with some knowledge know if MIA-MXP is being seriously considered for a comeback? Or is the MXP market from MIA still not what it was post Covid?

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Sydscott

Re: Icahn Takes 9.9% Stake in JetBlue

We know that Icahn knows what an LHR slot is worth so just give him those in exchange for his shares.

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Network - 2024

If AA is finally serious about being a real player in the Pacific, they need to add more flights to NRT to funnel connections to JAL. I think either ORD-NRT, PHX-NRT, or even MIA-NRT. As to the rest of Asia, the issue is aircraft availability, local sales efforts and resource deployment, and partne...

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Sydscott

Re: United Airlines Network - 2024

UA had a Miami hub and closed it. So a hub there would certainly be a back to the future moment!

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Network - 2024

DFW - BNE good luck AA. I don't see it lasting and don't see it as more than seasonal. If AA want to be taken seriously in NZ, they'd best establish a year-round service for OneWorld travelers. NZ has no such service at the moment. DL will continue to take this traffic together with UA. It's a miss...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Network - 2024

Its sad AA is a failure as an international airline. Isom has made it pretty apparent AA would rather be a domestic airline offering bare bones cheap flights stealing as much low fares from Spirit. AA continues to lower their offerings in whats left of a "premium" cabin. AA may as well ca...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation - January 2024

SQ has long been considered Australia's second de facto international airline and has built much of its European network on the back of connections from Australia through its Changi hub. In many respects, QF has inadvertently assisted SQ in its growth with QF's renowned Sydney-centricity meaning re...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Network - 2024

AA needs to figure it's overall strategy in NYC. They've been losing POS from NY and a few years ago, said they were shifting to bringing people TO NYC. That didn't seem to work out well. Do they continue to concentrate on smaller cities to/from NYC, or try to beef up big city/business travel. Howe...

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Sydscott

Re: US carriers 4th quarter 2023 earnings

American Airlines produces industry-leading performance during the winter holiday travel period. https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2024/American-Airlines-produces-industry-leading-performance-during-the-winter-holiday-travel-period-OPS-OTH-01/ I guess we will see if this translates into improve...

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Sydscott

Re: US carriers 4th quarter 2023 earnings

e.g., AA is at the point of putting up gates and routes as collateral for loans: https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2023/American-Airlines-announces-proposed-offering-of-senior-secured-notes-and-new-term-loan-CORP-FI-11/default.aspx Lightsaber On this point, your wording is that somehow this is ...

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Sydscott

Re: US carriers 4th quarter 2023 earnings

In relation to AA and the Debt Servicing issue, I'd merely point out that: - while AA has a large chunk of debt, it also has an elevated cash position to somewhat offset that which is also earning interest as interest rates have risen; - AA's more positive ratings outlook allow them to do things lik...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Fleet - 2023

Posted in todays aviator.aero newsletter. American Airlines (US) has deferred the delivery of 10 B787s, as it shifts its widebody strategy. From the 9/30/2023 10q, deliveries by year (before the rumored deferral): 2024: 7 2025: 4 2026: 4 2027: 5 2028+: 10 I wonder which year they shifted? Maybe thi...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - December 2023

Sydney airport has 3-4 gates out at the moment due to concrete works (no idea why they didn’t do them during Covid!!) bay 25 is also out due to a rusty bridge. Remote gates are common even though still not at pre-covid capacity. Again zero investment in a new remote Bay Area it’s a disgrace, they h...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Fleet - 2023

The big question is whether AA will place a further wide-body order to replace all or part of the 77Es, given its present finances. Are you suggesting AA will just shrink to irrelevance in intercon travel as the 77Es age out? Of course AA is going to order 77E replacements. How many, firm vs. optio...

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Sydscott

Re: AS to acquire HA; operate as separate brand.

The one JCBA, one certificate, and all union work groups combining, but operating 2 brands is confusing. The CEO of Alaska said in the press conference this is the plan, and that they don’t know how it’s going to work, because it’s never been done before. Still, he insists that both airline names w...

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Sydscott

Re: Rumor: AS to acquire HA; operate as separate brand.

Out of the over 1400 daily flights operated by the combined company, only TWELVE flights overlap. Let that sink in. 12 flights or 12 routes? They are different. He means routes. And of those 12 routes just about all of them will have competition on them so that HA and AS aren't the only carriers on...

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Sydscott

Re: US-Haneda frequency award proposals

As I said above and to quote me "by net increasing services between the US and HND". Under UA's proposal the total services between the US and Japan stays the same because UA swaps NRT for HND. Under AA's proposal the total services between the US and Japan increases by 1 because AA and JL...

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Sydscott

Re: US-Haneda frequency award proposals

United responded to AA's proposal. Basically saying who needs a 6th NYC-Haneda flight. If AA believed in the value of JFK-HND service why did it drop its previous flying, and not request the route in the most recent HND route case, instead prioritizing LAX, DFW and LAS. UA also asserts it's not the...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2023

There is no way that this could have been planned and announced in 3 weeks. Route planning takes time, especially to a previously unserved market. As already said, Paris has been talked about as long as they’ve served LHR, so it’s not a new idea. Qantas has been talking about Paris for at least 10-...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - November 2023

My assumption as to why QF has finally gotten the opportunity to begin flights to CDG is I think that especially pre-Hamas war, passengers traveling between Europe and Australia/New Zealand had a lot of options to choose from especially though transit points DXB (on EK), AUH (on EY), and DOH (on QR...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2023

I don’t agree around services to Europe - SYD-PER-CDG has just been announced year round…. And is bilaterally restricted beyond this. How could you say it’s over when it just began again? FCO/ATH as leisure markets maybe out year round. MAN/FRA I see potential still! Where does this 'Qantas is bila...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2023

Qantas today submitted their defence to the Federal Court regarding the ACCC court action over ghost flights. Qantas denies the allegations and a case management hearing is scheduled for 8th of November. One thing the media has picked up on today is Qantas is rejecting the ACCC case as they argue c...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2023

Qantas today submitted their defence to the Federal Court regarding the ACCC court action over ghost flights. Qantas denies the allegations and a case management hearing is scheduled for 8th of November. One thing the media has picked up on today is Qantas is rejecting the ACCC case as they argue c...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2023

Maybe BNE-LAX needs to go to AA and QF just add their code to the flight. A 788 would have to better 332 for that length of flight. Don't know if AA 788's have Y+ That concept has been floated on here a few times over the years. I think there were similar thoughts during the VA 1.5 era and DL addin...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 20

If QF keep SYD-AKL-JFK when sunrise flights start on the 350K, would a denser layout on a 789 even work? Considering it's probably at the limits now in terms of seat count and Air NZ has denser layout compared to QF, which doesn't work with a lot of seats blocked on the return flight to AKL At the ...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Fleet - 2023

If the AS A321's are owned by Gecas / Aercap, they are also a listed Company. So I'd have thought we would have seen some press from them about who they re-let the aircraft to if they had been re-let. (Especially if they were already being re-configured for a particular customer like AA) If Aercap i...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - October 2023

QAN has announced that chairman Richard Goyder will retire before the 2024 AGM whilst 2 other directors, Jacqueline Hay and Maxine Brenner, will retire in the next 6 months. https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231011/pdf/05vxnf6drt09ml.pdf Would have loved to have been a fly on the wall as he...

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Sydscott

Re: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion

Stock closed below $13 a share; the 52 week range was $11.65-$19.08. AA is approaching the low end quicker than UA or DL. There is plenty of cash for now to handle debt and expenses. However, if AA’s increased expenses (labor and fuel) increase the cash burn rate, that would probably be a big conce...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

UA's been advertising the daily BNE-SFO ahead of the start of the NW23/24 season, I'm assuming as part of the AAIF, with some lines about "don't go via LAX or SYD, connect in SFO". I'd suspect SFO may had joined Queensland on the advertising but targeting the outbound Queensland to USA ma...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

Turkish's application seems merely to increase so it can run a daily service, which Qantas over the years has also tried to get to France for example, so much more difficult to argue against that. (And I suspect there is a far larger direct market for Australia-Turkey than Australia-Qatar) TK's aim...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

Yes. The UAE has 77 unused weekly frequencies to SYD/MEL/BNE/PER. That’s of course for both Emirates and Etihad. Source: https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/growth-potential-foreign-airlines-northern-summer2023-april2023.pdf Emirates: - SYD: 4/3 (-1) - MEL: 3/3 (-) - BNE...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

Goyder surely has to go now, as well as the others who ultimately supported AJ through these decisions. There won't be real change until there's new faces at the top with a different mindset to suit Only a full clean out will work at restoring trust Thats just not going to happen whilst QF is profi...

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Sydscott

Re: Thai Airways News and Discussion - 2023

Sensible decision. Probably a tad surprised TG didn't at least look at investigating co-operation with fellow *A carrier NH as an alternative. Most of the people Thai would be selling to would be familiar with SQ and Singapore is an easy hub for Thai to run multiple flights into to connect. So make...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

They're wanting to spend $240m but an $800k dispute is holding it up? That maths doesn't add up there.

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Sydscott

Re: Thai Airways News and Discussion - 2023

Agreed makes total sense to just standardize their WB fleet around two types of aircraft only ie A350 and B787 family lines and NB around the A320Neo family line. Majority of the NBs I bet will end up being the A321Neos which is the right plane for TG in this segment category. I fully agree too tha...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

I would simply look at the BOS-NYC-WAS shuttle's to see an example of what would happen if things had to operated at a higher percentage of use. Lots of Regional Jets there taking up the frequencies and it's not like QF doesn't have A220's coming and access to E-190's. Either way there won't be slo...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

I'd re-word that to say that if they actually had to fly their schedule they would find a way to schedule other services onto the slots so they don't lose them. So there wouldn't be any slots for new entrants because they would get operated 1 way or another. QF might have to invest in more regional...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

Being devil's advocate here... am I the only one who doesn't see anything wrong with consolidating flights if there are available seats within 30 minutes of original departure? MEL-SYD sometimes has 4 flights within the hour... I understand convenience matters but the impacts on the environment to ...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

This is what ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) is supposed to do. It is supposed to measure companies on items other than financial. Qantas made a big deal of their ESG credentials but it was more virtue signalling than actually delivering positive outcomes outside of financial measures. A...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - September 2023

I personally believe that QF found a grey area and tried to exploit it to their benefit. Question is what's the benefit? And as for the ACCCs supposed huge penalties, what's the detriment to customers. Qantas has (certainly over the post-Covid period) been the most expensive domestic carrier. So if...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2023

But they pay per weighted landing? So they will pay for the terminal, and then once complete the airport will recalculate the value of the Aerodrome and then charge more per flight - not sure I see where the offset is? By not investing in the terminal QF are keeping their landing charges lower, cle...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2023

The only part to add to the debate - is how airport pricing works in AU. Prices are calculated off the asset value…. And airlines must pay for capital investment…. So by paying for a new terminal QF is unlocking higher landing charges for themselves, and building capacity for their completion… plus...

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Sydscott

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - August 2023

The 787-10 makes sense as does a top up order for more 789's. Lets wait and see what QF does, I'd say Boeing would definitely be very keen to sign up QF for more 787's so I'll bet pricing is good.

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